Business
GDP growth at a standstill in Canada, oil and gas sector one major bright spot – Conference Board of Canada

Article submitted by the Conference Board of Canada
Muted Outlook for Canadian Economy
Consumer Spending Holding Strong Despite Confidence Being Weak
Despite the progress that has been made, inflation is still weighing down Canada’s economy according to new research from The Conference Board of Canada. In keeping with its previous forecast, real GDP growth will be at a virtual standstill for the rest 2023. For the year as a whole that means a 0.9 per cent gain, followed by only a modest 1.4 per cent improvement in 2024.
“Concerns about the U.S. financial system are unlikely to be mirrored in Canada given our country’s more concentrated banking system,” stated Ted Mallett, Director, Economic Forecasting at The Conference Board of Canada. “The indirect effects will be muted, and business investment was already expected to be weak in Canada so there is relatively little business lending to pull back.”
The global economy has slowed sharply over the past year as major central banks have increased interest rates, but despite the weak near-term growth anticipation, the chances of a severe global recession have receded. Inflation remains a threat, but two key developments provide reason for optimism. The first is the mild winter in Europe eased concerns of an energy crunch, with natural gas prices now lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The second is China’s removal of the zero-COVID policy, which saw their economy open at a much faster pace than anticipated.
The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, with an expansion of 2.7 per cent in the final quarter of last year. Several factors should ensure that the coming slowdown in economic growth won’t be as severe as past slumps in economic activity. The major reason behind this view is the excess savings that households in America built up during the pandemic when the opportunity to spend was severely limited.
A slower U.S. economy will weigh on Canada’s trade results in the coming months, but the exports sector will still see a good showing in 2023, according to The Conference Board of Canada. Supply chain disturbances, which significantly restrained activity for many export sectors last year, have shown signs of easing over the past several months. A weak domestic economy, the depreciation of the loonie, and a steep decline in machinery and equipment investment will lead to muted activity for total real imports this year.
The oil and gas sector is a major bright spot in Canada thanks to strong corporate profits and ongoing projects in Western Canada and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Canada’s labour market has seen an impressive start to 2023, according to The Conference Board of Canada, which is being fuelled by an uptick in population growth. International migration to Canada has risen sharply in recent quarters, driven by record immigration targets and increased admissions of non-permanent residents, including temporary foreign workers.
Higher mortgage rates have slowed residential demand and unsurprisingly, the resale market has corrected with sales and prices decreasing. This downturn will frustrate some homeowners who bought at peak prices, while higher interest rates could severely impact some homeowners forced to renew mortgages at higher interest rates.
“While much of the COVID-19 support spending is now in the rear-view mirror, governments continue to have a heightened presence in the economy,” continued Mallett. “The pandemic brought about a new era of challenges to public finances, which were hardly looking rosy heading into the pandemic. The most notable question mark in today’s fiscal climate is how well governments can cope with new economic shocks.”
Business
Rhetoric—not evidence—continues to dominate climate debate and policy

From the Fraser Institute
Myths, fallacies and ideological rhetoric continue to dominate the climate policy discussion, leading to costly and ineffective government policies,
according to a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, nonpartisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“When considering climate policies, it’s important to understand what the science and analysis actually show instead of what the climate alarmists believe to be true,” said Kenneth P. Green, Fraser Institute senior fellow and author of Four Climate Fallacies.
The study dispels several myths about climate change and popular—but ineffective—emission reduction policies, specifically:
• Capitalism causes climate change: In fact, according to several environment/climate indices and the Fraser Institute’s annual Economic Freedom of the World Index, the more economically free a country is, the more effective it is at protecting its environment and combatting climate change.
• Even small-emitting countries can do their part to fight climate change: Even if Canada reduced its greenhouse gas emissions to zero, there would be
little to no measurable impact in global emissions, and it distracts people from the main drivers of emissions, which are China, India and the developing
world.
• Vehicle electrification will reduce climate risk and clean the air: Research has shown that while EVs can reduce GHG emissions when powered with
low-GHG energy, they often are not, and further, have offsetting environmental harms, reducing net environmental/climate benefits.
• Carbon capture and storage is a viable strategy to combat climate change: While effective at a small scale, the benefits of carbon capture and
storage to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions on a massive scale are limited and questionable.
“Citizens and their governments around the world need to be guided by scientific evidence when it comes to what climate policies make the most sense,” Green said.
“Unfortunately, the climate policy debate is too often dominated by myths, fallacies and false claims by activists and alarmists, with costly and ineffective results.”

Kenneth P. Green
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
Business
Canada’s economic pain could be a blessing in disguise

This article supplied by Troy Media.
By Roslyn Kunin
Tariffs, inflation, and falling incomes sound bad, but what if they’re forcing us to finally fix what’s broken?
Canada is facing serious economic headwinds—from falling incomes to rising inflation and U.S. trade hostility—but within this turmoil lies an opportunity. If we respond wisely, this crisis could become a turning point, forcing long-overdue reforms and helping us build a stronger, more independent economy.
Rather than reacting out of frustration, we can use these challenges to reassess what’s holding us back and move forward with practical solutions. From
trade policy to labour shortages and energy development, there are encouraging shifts already underway if we stay focused.
A key principle when under pressure is not to make things worse for ourselves. U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, and the chaotic renegotiation of NAFTA/CUSMA, certainly hurt our trade-dependent economy. But retaliatory tariffs don’t work in our favour. Canadian imports make
up a tiny fraction of the U.S. economy, so countermeasures barely register there, while Canadian consumers end up paying more. The federal government’s own countertariffs on items like orange juice and whisky raised costs here without changing American policy.
Fortunately, more Canadians are starting to realize this. Some provinces have reversed bans on U.S. goods. Saskatchewan, for example, recently lifted
restrictions on American alcohol. These decisions reflect a growing recognition that retaliating out of pride often means punishing ourselves.
More constructively, Canada is finally doing what should have happened long ago: diversifying trade. We’ve put too many economic eggs in one
basket, relying on an unpredictable U.S. market. Now, governments and businesses are looking for buyers elsewhere, an essential step toward greater stability.
At the same time, we’re starting to confront domestic barriers that have held us back. For years, it’s been easier for Canadian businesses to trade with the U.S. than to ship goods across provincial borders. These outdated restrictions—whether on wine, trucks or energy—have fractured our internal market. Now, federal and provincial governments are finally taking steps to create a unified national economy.
Labour shortages are another constraint limiting growth. Many Canadian businesses can’t find the skilled workers they need. But here, too, global shifts
are opening doors. The U.S.’s harsh immigration and research policies are pushing talent elsewhere, and Canada is emerging as the preferred alternative.
Scientists, engineers and graduate students, especially in tech and clean energy, are increasingly choosing Canada over the U.S. due to visa uncertainty and political instability. Our universities are already benefiting. If we continue to welcome international students and skilled professionals, we’ll gain a long-term advantage.
Just as global talent is rethinking where to invest their future, Canada has a chance to reassert leadership in one of its foundational industries: energy.
The federal government is now adopting a more balanced climate policy, shifting away from blanket opposition to carbon-based energy and focusing instead on practical innovation. Technologies such as carbon capture and storage are reducing emissions and helping clean up so-called dirty oil. These cleaner energy products are in demand globally.
To seize that opportunity, we need infrastructure: pipelines, refining capacity and delivery systems to get Canadian energy to world markets and across our own country. Projects like the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, along with east-west grid connections and expanded refining, are critical to reducing dependence on U.S. imports and unlocking Canada’s full potential.
Perhaps the most crucial silver lining of all is a renewed awareness of the value of this country. As we approach July 1, more Canadians are recognizing how fortunate we are. Watching the fragility of democracy in the U.S., and confronting the uncomfortable idea of being reduced to a 51st state, has reminded us that Canada matters. Not just to us, but to the world.
Dr. Roslyn Kunin is a respected Canadian economist known for her extensive work in economic forecasting, public policy, and labour market analysis. She has held various prominent roles, including serving as the regional director for the federal government’s Department of Employment and Immigration in British Columbia and Yukon and as an adjunct professor at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Kunin is also recognized for her contributions to economic development, particularly in Western Canada.
Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.
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