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2025 Energy Outlook: Steering Through Recovery and Policy Shifts

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From EnergyNow.ca

By Leonard Herchen & Yuchen Wang of GLJ

Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.

The energy markets in 2025 are undergoing transformative structural changes, highlighted by the operational launch of key infrastructure projects such as LNG Canada. This development significantly enhances Canada’s ability to meet rising global LNG demand while alleviating long-standing supply bottlenecks. At the same time, economic recovery across major markets remains uneven, shaping varied trends in energy demand and production activity.

Geopolitical dynamics are poised to redefine the competitive landscape, with the return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introducing potential shifts in trade policies, regulatory frameworks, and relationships with leading energy-producing nations. These changes, coupled with climate policy advancements and an accelerated global transition toward renewable energy, present additional complexities for the oil and gas sector.

Amid these uncertainties, GLJ’s analysts express confidence in the resilience of market fundamentals. Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.

Oil Prices

The oil market in 2025 reflects a delicate balance between supply and demand. During Q4 2024, WTI prices remained stable, fluctuating between $69 and $73 per barrel. This stability highlights the market’s resilience, even in the face of a slower global economic recovery and geopolitical challenges, including weaker demand in regions like China and increased production in North America.

Geopolitical risks remain pivotal, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on oil-exporting nations such as Iran and Venezuela threatening supply disruptions. While OPEC+ production cuts continue to provide vital support to prices by tightening global supply, these efforts are partially offset by the rising output of non-OPEC producers, notably in the U.S. and Canada.

The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project is reshaping the pricing dynamics of WCS crude relative to WTI. By increasing export capacity to the West Coast, TMX has created conditions for a sustained narrowing of the WCS-WTI differential, moving away from seasonal fluctuations.

The return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introduces additional challenges. Deregulation policies aimed at boosting domestic oil production may exert downward pressure on prices, while potential trade tariffs and revised international agreements could further complicate global oil flows.

In this dynamic environment, GLJ forecasts WTI to average $71.25 per barrel and Brent $75.25 per barrel in 2025. These projections reflect robust long-term fundamentals, including sustained global demand and ongoing efforts to manage supply dynamics, emphasizing the market’s resilience despite near-term uncertainties.

Natural Gas Prices

In 2025, GLJ’s forecast suggests Henry Hub prices will average $3.20 per MMBtu, supported by steady domestic demand, seasonal winter peaks, and robust LNG exports. U.S. natural gas continues to play a critical role globally, ensuring supply security for key markets in Europe and Asia. The combination of growing industrial use, power generation demand, and stable production levels provides a solid foundation for price stability.

For the Canadian market, GLJ projects AECO natural gas prices to average $2.05 per MMBtu in 2025, representing a recovery from the lows of 2024. This improvement is attributed to easing regional oversupply and stabilizing demand. However, challenges persist, as production continues to outpace infrastructure expansion, prompting a downward adjustment of GLJ’s long-term AECO price forecast by $0.40 per MMBtu. The ramp-up of LNG Canada’s operations is expected to progressively enhance market dynamics and address these challenges.

On a global scale, LNG benchmarks such as NBP, TTF, and JKM have remained relatively stable, supported by high storage levels in Europe and balanced supply-demand conditions. European suppliers have effectively managed storage drawdowns, ensuring sufficient reserves for winter. Nevertheless, these benchmarks remain susceptible to market volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainties.

The CAD/USD Exchange Rate

The Canadian dollar experienced sharp depreciation during the last quarter of 2024, with the CAD/USD exchange rate falling below 0.70 USD. Economists have attributed this decline to the strength of the U.S. economy and its currency, the widening gap between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lending rates, as well as tariff threats and a political crisis in Ottawa. These factors have created a favorable environment for the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Looking ahead to 2025, GLJ forecasts a CAD/USD exchange rate averaging 0.705 USD, underpinned by steady oil and gas revenues and enhanced export capacity from major projects such as LNG Canada and the TMX and eventual resolution of internal political issues and return to normalcy in US tariff policy.

Nevertheless, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remains uncertain, shaped by global economic recovery—particularly in China—and U.S. policy decisions under the Trump administration. While near-term challenges persist, Canada’s resource-driven economy and strategic energy export position provide a degree of resilience. In the absence of significant economic or geopolitical disruptions, GLJ projects the CAD/USD exchange rate to stabilize around 0.75 USD over the long term.

In 2025, GLJ expanded its database to include forecasts for Colombia Vasconia and Castilla Crude, as well as lithium prices, reflecting the increasing focus on diverse energy and resource markets. The addition of lithium forecasts aligns with the growing global emphasis on energy transition minerals critical for electric vehicles and battery storage solutions. A separate blog, set to be published next week on the GLJ website, will explore the lithium price forecast in greater depth, offering a detailed analysis and strategic implications for the energy sector.


GLJ’s forecast values for key benchmarks is as follows:

 

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Google Rejects Eurocrats’ Push For More Censorship

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Ireland Owens

Google soundly rejected the European Union’s push for the platform to censor content Thursday, declaring that it would not implement so-called “fact-checks.”

The tech giant told the EU that it would not incorporate fact checks into its search results and YouTube videos, Axios first reported. Google’s President of Global Affairs Kent Walker wrote a letter to Renate Nikolay, deputy director-general for Communications Networks, Content and Technology at the European Commission, stating the fact-checking required by the law “simply isn’t appropriate or effective for our services.”

The European Commission’s Code of Practice on Disinformation, which was introduced in 2022, would require Google to incorporate fact-check results alongside its search results and YouTube videos and would also require it to incorporate fact-checking into its ranking systems and algorithms, Axios reported.

Axios’ report comes after Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced on Jan. 7 that his company was ending its third-party fact-checking program in favor of implementing community notes. Meta’s announcement states that Meta’s platforms are “built to be places where people can express themselves freely.” Zuckerberg said that his company’s approach to content moderation often resulted in “censorship,” NPR reported.

Zuckerberg recently criticized the European Union’s data laws as “censoring” social media. The EU has rejected his claims as “misleading.”

Some people have criticized some major tech companies, claiming that they have censored conservative speech. Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey announced in October the launch of an investigation into Google for allegedly censoring conservatives.

Zuckerberg criticized Biden officials for pushing Meta to remove content that the Biden-Harris administration alleged to be disinformation during a recent appearance on the “Joe Rogan Experience” podcast.

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to combat social media censorship.

In December, Trump announced that he was nominating Andrew Ferguson to lead the Federal Trade Commission, stating that Ferguson “has a proven record of standing up to Big Tech censorship, and protecting Freedom of Speech in our Great Country.”

Minnesota Republican Rep. Tom Emmer said in a post on X that Google’s decision was a “step in the right direction,” adding “Kudos to @Google.”

A source with knowledge of the matter confirmed to the Daily Caller News Foundation that the content of Google’s letter as reported by Axios was accurate.

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Conservatives demand Brookfield Asset Management reveal Mark Carney’s compensation

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From Conservative Party Communications

Canadians Deserve to Know How Much Carney is Being Paid

Today, Common Sense Conservative MPs Michelle Rempel Garner and Michael Barrett wrote this letter to Bruce Flatt, the CEO of Brookfield, calling on him to fully disclose Carbon Tax Carney’s compensation for his role as Chair of Brookfield Asset Management. The full text can be found below:

Dear Mr. Flatt, 

We are writing with regard to the Chair of Brookfield Asset Management, Mark Carney, who has acted in a senior leadership position for your company for some time now.

During the same time period, Mr. Carney has been advising Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, and advocating for policies that have arguably wreaked havoc on Canada’s economy, like the carbon tax.

After nine years of this NDP-Liberal Government, which by their own very public admissions have relied on Mark Carney for advice, Canadians are witnessing the worst decline in living standards in forty years. The cost of housing has doubled, and record numbers of Canadians are having to depend on food banks to survive. 

Since August 2020, Mr. Carney has helped the NDP-Liberal Government hike its carbon tax on the backs of working Canadians, even endorsing it in his book, saying “One of the most important initiatives is carbon pricing…The Canadian federal carbon pricing framework is a model for others.” And since September 2024, when Trudeau appointed Carney as the Liberal Party’s Chair of the Leader’s Taskforce on Economic Growth, he would have had input into the most recent Fall Economic Statement which plunged Canada into a $62 billion deficit, blowing past the NDP-Liberal Government’s own fiscal guardrails.

And all the while Carney was advising the Liberals to continue carrying out their agenda of economic vandalism, he remained the Chair of Brookfield Asset Management, posing grave ethical questions that could have real-life consequences for millions of Canadians.

For instance, just a few days after his official appointment as Chair of the Leader’s Taskforce on Economic Growth, The Logic reported that Brookfield Asset Management has been actively lobbying the same federal Liberal government he’s been advising for $10 billion from the Canadian taxpayer. And Mr. Carney has strongly advocated for policies that would destroy Canada’s oil and gas sector, while at the same time your company invested in oil companies in Brazil and the United Arab Emirates. 

There are many other instances of questionable policy decisions the NDP-Liberal Government has made while Mark Carney was both advising them and acting as the Chair of Brookfield Asset Management – decisions that potentially could have resulted in Mr. Carney’s personal gain.

While we have written to the Federal Lobbying Commissioner to examine whether this arrangement broke any lobbying rules, that investigation may not shed public light on whether Mr. Carney was personally motivated by the structure of his compensation model with your company to advocate for certain policies in his senior advisory capacity with Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government.

Executive compensation for a Chair at a company the size of Brookfield can include salary, performance bonuses, stock options, lucrative expense accounts and more. Since Mr. Carney has a direct, senior, advisory line into Justin Trudeau’s government, and since your company has many interests which involve the type of policy on which Mr. Carney was advising the government, revealing the full scope of Mr. Carney’s compensation package to the public is essential to understanding what impact his access into the federal Liberal government had on his personal fortunes, if any.

For this reason, you must disclose Carney’s compensation structure with Brookfield Asset Management. This is especially important as Carney is now mounting a leadership campaign – with the help of members of Justin Trudeau’s inner circle – that could see him become the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and the Prime Minister of this country, with even more power and more access.

It is vitally important for Canadians to know whether or not Mr. Carney’s compensation with Brookfield could increase if the Liberals implement his policy ideas. While food banks report over two million visits in a single month, Canadians have a right to know the fine details about the impact of insider access on their lives.

You must be transparent with Canadians on this matter. The stakes could not be higher.

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