Alberta
With spending restraint, Alberta can re-introduce a rainy-day fund worth $9.8 billion by 2025/26
From the Fraser Institute
It’s Time to Get Off the Resource Revenue Rollercoaster: Re-establishing the Alberta Sustainability Fund
With spending restraint, Alberta can re-introduce a rainy-day fund worth $9.8 billion by 2025/26 that could help insulate the province’s budget from swings in resource revenue, finds a new study published by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Alberta has an ongoing fiscal problem fueled by volatile resource revenues, but reintroducing a rainy-day fund, based on the previously successful Alberta Sustainability Fund, would help get Alberta off this resource revenue rollercoaster and stabilize provincial finances for the long-term,” said Tegan Hill, associate director of Alberta policy at the Fraser Institute and co-author of There’s time to get off the resource revenue rollercoaster: Re-establishing the Alberta Sustainability Fund.
Alberta governments typically include all resource revenue in the budget, meaning that during periods of relatively high resource revenue, the province enjoys budget surpluses but faces pressure to increase spending, and when resource revenues decline, with comparatively high levels of spending, the province’s finances turn to deficits.
Consider that amid the windfall in resource revenue, in Budget 2023, the Alberta government increased cumulative spending by $10.1 billion from 2022/23 through 2024/25 compared to the 2022 Mid-Year Fiscal update just three months earlier.
Rather than continue to spend relatively high one-time resource revenue, the Alberta government can use this opportunity to stabilize provincial finances over the long-term.
By limiting resource revenue included the budget to a stable amount, it will thereby limit the amount of money available for annual spending. Any resource revenue above the set stable amount would be automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in years with relatively low resource revenue, thus, helping to avoid budget deficits.
The study calculates that with spending restraint Alberta can fund a rainy-day fund worth $9.8 billion by 2025/26.
“The rainy-day fund could be implemented all while still maintaining a balanced budget for Alberta,” Hill said.
Summary
- Alberta’s volatile resource revenues are fueling its ongoing fiscal problem. The provincial government typically includes all resource revenue in its budget. When resource revenue is relatively high, the province enjoys budget surpluses but faces pressure to increase spending; when resource revenues drop, spending remains high and the province turns to deficits.
- Despite efforts to better manage Alberta’s finances, the Smith government is largely repeating past mistakes by increasing spending during a period of relatively high resource revenue.
- In the 2022 mid-year update, the Smith government increased the plan for nominal program spending from Budget 2022 every year from 2022/23 through 2024/25 for a cumulative increase of $5.9 billion. In Budget 2023, the Smith government increased the plan further with a cumulative increase of $10.1 billion from 2022/23 through 2024/25 compared to the 2022 mid-year update.
- Rather than spend all of the resource revenue in years when it is relatively high, the Alberta government should use this opportunity to stabilize provincial finances over the long-term by re-introducing a rainy-day account based on the earlier Alberta Sustainability Fund (ASF).
- To do so, it would limit the resource revenue included the budget to a stable amount, thereby limiting the amount of money available for annual spending. Any resource revenue above the set stable amount would be automatically saved in the ASF to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in years with relatively low resource revenue. The government could implement the ASF while maintaining a balanced budget and without an annual reduction in nominal spending.
- Based on 2023 budget projections, with spending restraint, the provincial government could re-introduce an ASF worth $9.8 billion by 2025/26.
Authors:
Alberta
Hours after Liberal election win, Alberta Prosperity Project drumming up interest in referendum
News release from the Alberta Prosperity Project
Carney’s In. Now what?You’ve been paying attention. You understand this is really bad. Worse than that, it’s dangerous. The country has somehow chosen several more years of a decade-long Trudeau Travesty…on steroids. Because this new Prime Minister has a three digit IQ, deep and questionable connections and a momentum to accelerate the further dis-integration of a nation we all once proudly belonged to. It’s untrue to say the country is dying. But it’s also not a stretch to say it’s on life support. The era of Carney Carnage is here. While every province will experience it, there’s no secret he’s placed an extra big bulls-eye on Alberta. It’s not personal, it’s financial.His plan includes continuing to limit three of Alberta’s most prosperous sectors: energy, agriculture and, by extension, innovation. To acknowledge this requires we abandon our sense of romanticized national nostalgia. Nostalgia is a trap that prevents us from assessing the reality we exist in. For instance, GDP is considered the financial heartbeat of a country. Over the past decade of Liberal Leadership, the national GDP has been an abysmal 1.1%. By relatable comparison, Mexico was 4%, the UK was 6%, Australia had 8% growth and the US was a whopping 19%. That’s great information for an economist, but what does it mean to your pay cheque? The everyday impact on the average Albertan —say, a teacher or mechanic— of 10 long years of 1% GDP means rent’s up at least 25%, a trip to the grocery store always stings, and driving an older car is the norm because an upgrade is out of reach. Does this sound like your reality? We aren’t starving, but we’re not thriving, either.Does this make sense for 4.5 million people living with the third most abundant energy deposits in the world? There’s an absurdity to the situation Albertans find themselves in. It’s akin to being chronically dehydrated while having a fresh water spring in the backyard. The life you’ve invested for, the future you believed was ahead, isn’t happening. If Alberta stays on this path. So what can you, as an Albertan, do about it? This Fall, we’ll be provided an opportunity. A life raft in the form of a referendum. It requires curiosity, imagination and courage to step into it, but the option will be there — a once in a lifetime shot at prosperity for you and your family: Alberta Sovereignty. A successful bid means Albertans can finally paddle out of the perilous economic current that’s battered us for ten long years. Alberta has the resources, talent and spirit of collaboration to create a prosperous future for our families and communities. |
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UPCOMING EVENTS: |
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WHAT CAN ALBERTANS DO?Register Your Intent To Vote “YES” |
Alberta
New Alberta Election Act bans electronic vote counting machines, lowers threshold for recalls and petitions
Alberta’s government is introducing changes to protect democracy, deliver fair and open elections and increase confidence in every vote cast.
Voting gives Albertans a voice in shaping the future of our province. Direct democracy processes like referendums, recall and citizen initiative petitions provide further opportunities for Albertans to be heard and express their views. The proposed Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2025, would make Alberta’s elections and other democratic processes more open, secure and accessible.
“I believe that democracy thrives when people trust the process. These changes would make elections at every level in Alberta more accessible and transparent while protecting their integrity, ensuring confidence in the outcomes. We are also creating more opportunities for Albertans to be involved in direct democracy and to have their say on issues that matter to them.”
Fair and free elections are the foundation of democracy, and Alberta’s government is taking action to protect them. The proposed changes include:
- Banning the use of electronic tabulators and other automated voting machines, requiring all ballots to be counted by hand to protect election integrity.
- Eliminating vouching at voting stations to strengthen identification and verification processes.
- Requiring unofficial vote counts to be completed within 12 hours of polls closing to provide timely, reliable results.
- Voters being required to cast their ballot in their constituency of residence or by requesting a special ballot.
- Expanding access to special ballots, allowing any voter to request one without needing to provide a reason while protecting integrity by requiring voters to personally request their special ballot (with exceptions for those needing assistance due to a disability).
- Updating the Recall Act to make it easier for Albertans to hold elected officials accountable by lowering the signature threshold and extending the timeframe to collect signatures.
- Improving the Citizen Initiative Act process by setting the threshold for all successful petitions at 10 per cent of eligible voters who participated in the last general election.
“Albertans rightly expect their government to make sure democratic processes are fair and transparent with accurate and timely results. These proposed amendments would deliver on my mandate to review and make changes to strengthen public trust in the integrity of our elections.”
Additional amendments under the Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2025 would:
- Allow corporate and union contributions for provincial elections while maintaining transparency and accountability through existing financial disclosure requirements.
- Improve access to voting for First Nations and Métis Settlements during referendums and Senate elections.
- Enhance emergency response provisions for voting disruptions during referendums and Senate elections.
These changes would help ensure that Alberta’s democratic processes are open, secure, and reflective of the will of Albertans, while creating new opportunities for greater public participation.
Quick facts
- The Election Act governs the process for provincial elections, by-elections and plebiscites in Alberta and creates the office of the chief electoral officer, the head of Elections Alberta.
- The Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act governs the financing of provincial elections, Senate elections and referendums, including rules for registered political parties, constituency associations, candidates, leadership contestants and third parties.
- The Alberta Senate Election Act governs the process for Senate elections in Alberta.
- The Referendum Act governs the process for referendums in Alberta.
- The Recall Act outlines the process for Albertans to initiate the recall of an elected MLA.
- The Citizen Initiative Act allows eligible voters in Alberta to propose legislative or policy initiatives, constitutional referendum questions and establishes rules for advertising and spending.
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