Alberta
With spending restraint, Alberta can re-introduce a rainy-day fund worth $9.8 billion by 2025/26
From the Fraser Institute
It’s Time to Get Off the Resource Revenue Rollercoaster: Re-establishing the Alberta Sustainability Fund
With spending restraint, Alberta can re-introduce a rainy-day fund worth $9.8 billion by 2025/26 that could help insulate the province’s budget from swings in resource revenue, finds a new study published by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Alberta has an ongoing fiscal problem fueled by volatile resource revenues, but reintroducing a rainy-day fund, based on the previously successful Alberta Sustainability Fund, would help get Alberta off this resource revenue rollercoaster and stabilize provincial finances for the long-term,” said Tegan Hill, associate director of Alberta policy at the Fraser Institute and co-author of There’s time to get off the resource revenue rollercoaster: Re-establishing the Alberta Sustainability Fund.
Alberta governments typically include all resource revenue in the budget, meaning that during periods of relatively high resource revenue, the province enjoys budget surpluses but faces pressure to increase spending, and when resource revenues decline, with comparatively high levels of spending, the province’s finances turn to deficits.
Consider that amid the windfall in resource revenue, in Budget 2023, the Alberta government increased cumulative spending by $10.1 billion from 2022/23 through 2024/25 compared to the 2022 Mid-Year Fiscal update just three months earlier.
Rather than continue to spend relatively high one-time resource revenue, the Alberta government can use this opportunity to stabilize provincial finances over the long-term.
By limiting resource revenue included the budget to a stable amount, it will thereby limit the amount of money available for annual spending. Any resource revenue above the set stable amount would be automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in years with relatively low resource revenue, thus, helping to avoid budget deficits.
The study calculates that with spending restraint Alberta can fund a rainy-day fund worth $9.8 billion by 2025/26.
“The rainy-day fund could be implemented all while still maintaining a balanced budget for Alberta,” Hill said.

Summary
- Alberta’s volatile resource revenues are fueling its ongoing fiscal problem. The provincial government typically includes all resource revenue in its budget. When resource revenue is relatively high, the province enjoys budget surpluses but faces pressure to increase spending; when resource revenues drop, spending remains high and the province turns to deficits.
- Despite efforts to better manage Alberta’s finances, the Smith government is largely repeating past mistakes by increasing spending during a period of relatively high resource revenue.
- In the 2022 mid-year update, the Smith government increased the plan for nominal program spending from Budget 2022 every year from 2022/23 through 2024/25 for a cumulative increase of $5.9 billion. In Budget 2023, the Smith government increased the plan further with a cumulative increase of $10.1 billion from 2022/23 through 2024/25 compared to the 2022 mid-year update.
- Rather than spend all of the resource revenue in years when it is relatively high, the Alberta government should use this opportunity to stabilize provincial finances over the long-term by re-introducing a rainy-day account based on the earlier Alberta Sustainability Fund (ASF).
- To do so, it would limit the resource revenue included the budget to a stable amount, thereby limiting the amount of money available for annual spending. Any resource revenue above the set stable amount would be automatically saved in the ASF to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in years with relatively low resource revenue. The government could implement the ASF while maintaining a balanced budget and without an annual reduction in nominal spending.
- Based on 2023 budget projections, with spending restraint, the provincial government could re-introduce an ASF worth $9.8 billion by 2025/26.
Authors:
Alberta
They never wanted a pipeline! – Deputy Conservative Leader Melissa Lantsman
From Melissa Lantsman
Turns out the anti-development wing of the Liberal Party never stopped running the show.
Today, we’ll see if the Liberals vote for the pipeline they just finished bragging about.
Spoiler: they won’t. Because with the Liberals, the announcements are real, but the results never are.
Alberta
Premier Smith: Canadians support agreement between Alberta and Ottawa and the major economic opportunities it could unlock for the benefit of all
From Energy Now
By Premier Danielle Smith
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If Canada wants to lead global energy security efforts, build out sovereign AI infrastructure, increase funding to social programs and national defence and expand trade to new markets, we must unleash the full potential of our vast natural resources and embrace our role as a global energy superpower.
The Alberta-Ottawa Energy agreement is the first step in accomplishing all of these critical objectives.
Recent polling shows that a majority of Canadians are supportive of this agreement and the major economic opportunities it could unlock for the benefit of all Canadians.
As a nation we must embrace two important realities: First, global demand for oil is increasing and second, Canada needs to generate more revenue to address its fiscal challenges.
Nations around the world — including Korea, Japan, India, Taiwan and China in Asia as well as various European nations — continue to ask for Canadian energy. We are perfectly positioned to meet those needs and lead global energy security efforts.
Our heavy oil is not only abundant, it’s responsibly developed, geopolitically stable and backed by decades of proven supply.
If we want to pay down our debt, increase funding to social programs and meet our NATO defence spending commitments, then we need to generate more revenue. And the best way to do so is to leverage our vast natural resources.
At today’s prices, Alberta’s proven oil and gas reserves represent trillions in value.
It’s not just a number; it’s a generational opportunity for Alberta and Canada to secure prosperity and invest in the future of our communities. But to unlock the full potential of this resource, we need the infrastructure to match our ambition.
There is one nation-building project that stands above all others in its ability to deliver economic benefits to Canada — a new bitumen pipeline to Asian markets.
The energy agreement signed on Nov. 27 includes a clear path to the construction of a one-million-plus barrel-per-day bitumen pipeline, with Indigenous co-ownership, that can ensure our province and country are no longer dependent on just one customer to buy our most valuable resource.
Indigenous co-ownership also provide millions in revenue to communities along the route of the project to the northwest coast, contributing toward long-lasting prosperity for their people.
The agreement also recognizes that we can increase oil and gas production while reducing our emissions.
The removal of the oil and gas emissions cap will allow our energy producers to grow and thrive again and the suspension of the federal net-zero power regulations in Alberta will open to doors to major AI data-centre investment.
It also means that Alberta will be a world leader in the development and implementation of emissions-reduction infrastructure — particularly in carbon capture utilization and storage.
The agreement will see Alberta work together with our federal partners and the Pathways companies to commence and complete the world’s largest carbon capture, utilization and storage infrastructure project.
This would make Alberta heavy oil the lowest intensity barrel on the market and displace millions of barrels of heavier-emitting fuels around the globe.
We’re sending a clear message to investors across the world: Alberta and Canada are leaders, not just in oil and gas, but in the innovation and technologies that are cutting per barrel emissions even as we ramp up production.
Where we are going — and where we intend to go with more frequency — is east, west, north and south, across oceans and around the globe. We have the energy other countries need, and will continue to need, for decades to come.
However, this agreement is just the first step in this journey. There is much hard work ahead of us. Trust must be built and earned in this partnership as we move through the next steps of this process.
But it’s very encouraging that Prime Minister Mark Carney has made it clear he is willing to work with Alberta’s government to accomplish our shared goal of making Canada an energy superpower.
That is something we have not seen from a Canadian prime minister in more than a decade.
Together, in good faith, Alberta and Ottawa have taken the first step towards making Canada a global energy superpower for benefit of all Canadians.
Danielle Smith is the Premier of Alberta
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