During the 2016 election President Trump repeatedly said he wanted to renegotiate NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement.  Both Canada and Mexico were reluctant to open the trade agreement to revision, but ultimately President Trump had the authority and support from an election victory to do exactly that.

In order to understand the issue, you must remember President Trump, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer each agreed the NAFTA agreement was fraught with problems and was best addressed by scrapping it and creating two seperate bilateral trade agreements. One between the USA and Mexico, and one between the USA and Canada.

In the decades that preceded the 2017 push to redo the trade pact, Canada had restructured their economy to: (1) align with progressive climate change; and (2) take advantage of the NAFTA loophole.  The Canadian government did not want to reengage in a new trade agreement.

Canada has deindustrialized much of their manufacturing base to support the ‘environmental’ aspirations of their progressive politicians.  Instead, Canada became an importer of component goods where companies then assembled those imports into finished products to enter the U.S. market without tariffs.  Working with Chinese manufacturing companies, Canada exploited the NAFTA loophole.

Justin Trudeau was strongly against renegotiating NAFTA, and stated he and Chrystia Freeland would not support reopening the trade agreement.  President Trump didn’t care about the position of Canada and was going forward.  Trudeau said he would not support it.  Trump focused on the first bilateral trade agreement with Mexico.

When the U.S. and Mexico had agreed to terms of the new trade deal and 80% of the agreement was finished, representatives from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce informed Trudeau that his position was weak and if the U.S. and Mexico inked their deal, Canada would be shut out.

The U.S Chamber of Commerce was upset because they were kept out of all the details of the agreement between the U.S. and Mexico.  In actuality the U.S CoC was effectively blocked from any participation.

When they went to talk to the Canadians the CoC was warning them about what was likely to happen.  NAFTA would end, the U.S. and Mexico would have a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA), and then Trump was likely to turn to Trudeau and say NAFTA is dead, now we need to negotiate a separate deal for U.S-Canada.

Trudeau was told a direct bilateral trade agreement between the U.S and Canada was the worst possible scenario for the Canadian government.  Canada would lose access to the NAFTA loophole and Canada’s entire economy was no longer in a position to negotiate against the size of the USA.  Trump would win every demand.

Following the warning, Trudeau went to visit Nancy Pelosi to find out if congress was likely to ratify a new bilateral trade agreement between the U.S and Mexico.  Pelosi warned Trudeau there was enough political support for the NAFTA elimination from both parties.  Yes, the bilateral trade agreement was likely to find support.

Realizing what was about to happen, Prime Minister Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland quickly changed approach and began to request discussions and meetings with USTR Robert Lighthizer.  Keep in mind more than 80 to 90% of the agreement was already done by the U.S. and Mexico teams.  Both President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and President Trump were now openly talking about when it would be finalized and signed.

Nancy Pelosi stepped in to help Canada get back into the agreement by leveraging her Democrats.  Trump agreed to let Canada engage, and Lighthizer agreed to hold discussions with Chrystia Freeland on a tri-lateral trade agreement that ultimately became the USMCA.

The key points to remember are: (1) Trump, Ross and Lighthizer would prefer two separate bilateral trade agreements because the U.S. import/export dynamic was entirely different between Mexico and Canada. And because of the loophole issue, (2) a five-year review was put into the finished USMCA trade agreement. The USMCA was signed on November 30, 2018, and came into effect on July 1, 2020.

TIMELINE:  The USMCA is now up for review (2025) and renegotiation in 2026!

This timeline is the key to understanding where President Donald Trump stands today.  The review and renegotiation is his goal.

President Trump said openly he was going to renegotiate the USMCA, leveraging border security (Mexico) and reciprocity (Canada) within it.

Following the 2024 presidential election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traveled to Mar-a-Lago and said if President Trump was to make the Canadian government face reciprocal tariffs, open the USMCA trade agreements to force reciprocity, and/or balance economic relations on non-tariff issues, then Canada would collapse upon itself economically and cease to exist.

In essence, according to Trudeau, Canada cannot survive as a free and independent north American nation, without receiving all the one-way benefits from the U.S. economy.

To wit, President Trump then said, if Canada cannot survive in a balanced rules environment, including putting together their own military and defenses (which it cannot), then Canada should become the 51st U.S state.  It was following this meeting that President Trump started emphasizing this point and shocking everyone in the process.

However, what everyone missed was the strategy Trump began outlining when contrast against the USMCA review and renegotiation window.

Again, Trump doesn’t like the tri-lateral trade agreement. President Trump would rather have two separate bilateral agreements; one for Mexico and one for Canada.  Multilateral trade agreements are difficult to manage and police.

How was President Trump going to get Canada to (a) willingly exit the USMCA; and (b) enter a bilateral trade agreement?

The answer was through trade and tariff provocations, while simultaneously hitting Canada with the shock and awe aspect of the 51st state.

The Canadian government and the Canadian people fell for it hook, line and sinker.

Trump’s position on the Canadian election outcome had nothing to do with geopolitical friendships and everything to do with America-First economics. When asked about the election in Canada President Trump said, “I don’t care. I think it’s easier to deal, actually, with a liberal and maybe they’re going to win, but I don’t really care.”

By voting emotionally, the Canadian electorate have fallen into President Trump’s USMCA exit trap.  Prime Minister Carney will make the exit much easier.  Carney now becomes the target of increased punitive coercion until such a time as the USMCA review is begun, and Canada is forced to a position of renegotiation.

Trump never wanted Canada as a 51st state.

Trump always wanted a U.S-Canada bilateral trade agreement.

Mark Carney said the era of U.S-Canadian economic ties “are officially declared severed.”

Canada positioned themselves to willingly exit the USMCA trade agreement at the perfect time for President Trump.

Why do you think Mexico stayed quiet?

There’s an uncomfortable quiet over much of the prairies.  In Alberta it’s the type of quiet you can actually feel.

It’s not the typical disappointed silence you expect after another election defeat. It’s more like the kind of quiet that snaps an entire room to attention after someone has been slapped in the face. Bystanders in the immediate area watch to see what happens next. Those a step further back watch to see where the bystanders will weigh in.

At first all eyes are on the red cheeked person taking offense. This is the time before anyone in the room moves. The split second when all the bystanders process the situation to decide whether the slap was deserved, or a provocation, or something else. Over the next few hours and the next few days those who feel slapped are first to respond.

First reactions are typically instinctual and may be effective, but are just as likely to lead in precisely the wrong direction.  Those furious citizens and angry columnists with stinging cheeks are already lashing out. Jeffrey Rath has already written “A Requiem for Canada”. Rath is convinced Albertan’s will vote to leave Canada in the fall of 2025.  I’m not saying he’s wrong.  But if there was a vote at this moment Rath would not get the clear majority he’s looking for.

Rath is right in saying the fire for separation is started. But even the election of yet another Liberal minority government did not result in a four alarm fire. Not yet anyway.  Some of the bystanders will join them in rage-filled response. For a few days it might even look like fisticuffs are about to break out. This time, one senses the initial response will not be the real response.

So what now?

This initial anger will die down, but that’s not the same as saying the fire will go out.  There are more than enough people who feel burnt by these continual election defeats to keep the fire going.

Mark Carney will decide how much kindling is added.  If the newly elected Prime Minister charges into his stated agenda of climate alarmism and energy denialism this fire will certainly flare up. Each anti oil and gas decision will add kindling to the fire.

It’s safe to say that Carney, most of his voters, even those Progressives right here in Alberta do not understand the frustration of the prairie conservative voter.  Many of those voters are not recovered from the rejection of the annoying Freedom Convoy.  Can it possibly be true a majority of Canadians are perfectly happy the two people most responsible for ensuring not a single window was broken and not a single person was assaulted (truly an incredible feat and probably miraculous) are facing prison terms?  It is true.  Lich and Barber sentenced to prison time. More kindling.

Now it is time to move on.  But what does that mean?

The Liberal government and millions of voters who supported Carney are expecting that Canadians, and Canada’s premiers will fall in line and do their best to support the Prime Minister’s agenda as long as this minority government holds power.

That is not going to happen.

Premier Danielle Smith clearly shared Alberta’s position before the election.  The election changed nothing. Hours after the results were clear Premier Smith was out of the gates with an invitation to ‘reset’ the federal relationship with Alberta.  The Prime Minister is free to ignore her. He probably will.  That won’t work out well for Canada. More kindling.

If you’re looking for the bumpkins from the farms and the oil patch to lash out in meaningless memes and curse filled comment sections, get your fill.  I don’t think this vitriol will be the force leading the charge this time.

The results of the 2025 election might look incredibly similar to the results in 2019 and 2021, but the reaction in Alberta feels different. It’s more ominous. This time it feels like the bystanders have learned something from being slapped before. This time it feels like Albertans are taking a deep breath before responding to that slapping noise.