This article supplied by Troy Media.

 By Rashid Husain Syed

EU sanctions, OPEC+ shifts and political risk are fuelling volatility in oil markets

Crude oil markets are being pulled in every direction—and no one seems to know where they’re headed next.

After weeks of internal debate, the European Union has now imposed its 18th package of sanctions against Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, tightening its grip on Russian oil exports. The latest measures reduce the price cap on Russian crude from US$60 to US$47.60 per barrel and target more than 100 additional “shadow fleet” tankers—vessels used to move oil covertly to bypass sanctions. EU leaders say the goal is to align the cap with prevailing global market prices and further restrict Russia’s energy revenues.

The price cap system, introduced by the G7 and EU in late 2022, allows Russian oil to be sold to non-Western countries—such as India and China—only if it is priced at or below the cap. Western companies are prohibited from providing key services like shipping, insurance or financing for any Russian oil sold above that limit. Since most of the world’s maritime insurance and oil shipping is handled by Western firms, the cap gives the West
leverage to constrain Russia’s oil revenue without cutting off supply completely.

By lowering the cap from US$60 to US$47.60, the EU is tightening that squeeze, making it harder for Russia to find legal routes to sell oil at higher prices.

But the measures go beyond pricing. A full transaction ban has been imposed on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines—infrastructure built to carry natural gas from Russia to Europe— halting any further development or use. The EU also expanded restrictions on traders,  transporters and entities that enable Russian energy flows, including a major Indian refinery linked to Rosneft, Russia’s state-controlled oil company.

In theory, these steps should tighten global oil supply and put upward pressure on prices. In practice, the response has been muted. The United States hasn’t adopted the lower cap, and traders largely expect Russian crude to continue flowing through grey and black markets. Many believe the impact on global supply will be minimal, at least for now.

The EU also banned imports of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude that are processed in third countries—a common sanction workaround—but exempted close allies including Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Norway and Switzerland, which are already aligned with G7 restrictions.

For Canada, a resource-rich country with a globally integrated oil sector, these developments matter. Global oil prices influence gasoline and diesel costs, heating fuel and shipping rates. They also affect Alberta’s oil and gas industry—a major driver of national GDP and federal revenues. When energy markets wobble, the Canadian economy often feels the ripple effects.

Adding to market tension is the spectre of oversupply. OPEC+, the alliance of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, had planned to boost production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with a similar increase in September. That announcement cooled market sentiment temporarily. However, Bloomberg reports suggest the cartel is already considering a pause in output hikes come October, reflecting concerns about a global demand slowdown and swelling inventories.

The International Energy Agency warns that crude stockpiles are growing at a rate of one million barrels per day, with a projected surplus by the final quarter of 2025. That surplus— equivalent to 1.5 per cent of global crude consumption—could push prices down if demand weakens further.
Meanwhile, geopolitics continue to add instability. Iraq’s government recently approved crude exports from its semiautonomous Kurdish region via the Iraq–Turkey pipeline, which could inject additional supply into the market.

In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump has signalled his administration is considering tougher economic measures on Russia, including the possibility of secondary tariffs targeting energy exports. But most traders remain skeptical that such steps would disrupt global oil flows in the near term.

Even recent signs of strength in the U.S. economy—normally bullish for energy demand—haven’t lifted prices decisively. The ongoing tariff battles, lurching between escalation and retreat, have only added to the confusion. Oil markets have grown wary of trying to predict outcomes based on political posturing.

Without clear coordination among major players, volatility will remain the market’s default setting—and that spells trouble for oil-dependent economies like Canada’s.

Toronto-based Rashid Husain Syed is a highly regarded analyst specializing in energy and politics, particularly in the Middle East. In addition to his contributions to local and international newspapers, Rashid frequently lends his expertise as a speaker at global conferences. Organizations such as the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency in Paris have sought his insights on global energy matters.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.

From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Jason Hopkins

The Trump administration extradited dozens of fugitives from Mexico as the White House tightens a noose around criminal syndicates south of the border.

Federal law enforcement took custody of 26 individuals, many of them leaders of dangerous drug cartels and human smuggling organizations that the Trump administration has deemed to be foreign terrorist organizations, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ). The Tuesday announcement came in the aftermath of President Donald Trump reportedly authorizing the use of military force against drug cartels.

Among those handed over to U.S. authorities were top leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generation and Los Zetas cartels, according to the DOJ. Nearly every individual faces up to life in prison on various charges ranging from hostage-taking, drug-trafficking, kidnapping, human smuggling and a slate of other crimes.

“Today is the latest example of the Trump administration’s historic efforts to dismantle cartels and foreign terrorist organizations,” Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a public statement. “These 26 men have all played a role in bringing violence and drugs to American shores — under this Department of Justice, they will face severe consequences for their crimes against this country.”

“We are grateful to Mexico’s National Security team for their collaboration in this matter,” Bondi continued.

Those extradited to the U.S. included Martin Zazueta Perez and Kevin Gil Acosta, leaders of a powerful faction of the Sinaloa Cartel that have led hired gunmen armed with grenade launchers and assault rifles in attacks against Mexican military officials, according to the DOJ. Both men were involved in prolific fentanyl trafficking into the U.S.

Also taken into American custody were Leobardo Garcia Corrales, a close friend of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman who has allegedly trafficked fentanyl into the U.S. in exchange for AK-47s, grenades and submachine guns, and Luis Raul Castro Valenzuela, a Sinaloa Cartel gangbanger accused of kidnapping and holding hostage an American citizen, according to the DOJ.

Collectively, the 26 individuals have imported “tonnage quantities” of cocaine, meth, fentanyl heroin and other illicit drugs through the Mexico border, according to the Trump administration.

Just days before the extradition, Trump reportedly authorized the use of military strikes against Mexican drug cartels, a move that would mark a monumental escalation in the White House’s war against criminal syndicates. Immediately upon re-entering office, the president officially designated a number of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, allowing U.S. authorization to freeze their financial assets, prohibit their entry into the country and the prosecution of members for supporting terrorism.

While the Mexican government has shown a willingness to help take on drug cartels and illegal immigration, their government appears adamantly opposed to U.S. military strikes against criminal syndicates within their territory, with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Friday “absolutely” ruling out the possibility of U.S. military operations on Mexican land.

The Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration across the southern border has wielded unprecedented success, with Border Patrol agents releasing zero migrants into the interior of the country in July, marking the third consecutive month of zero releases.