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Bruce Dowbiggin

The Secret To Landing Huge QB Contracts? Timing

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What is the reward for a quarterback who can’t get his team out of the wildcard round of the NFL playoffs? If you’re Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa the reward for failure will likely be a $250 million handshake over five years. While Travis Kelce walks off with Taylor Swift, Tua will walk off with a Brinks truck. How? And why does this have NFL executives petrified?

Tagovailoa has been a thing since his splashy college days at Alabama where he was anointed as the next great QB in the NFL. Losing teams were “tanking for Tua” in an attempt to draft him in 2020 when he left the Crimson Tide. In the end, the Miami Dolphins came away with what was purported to be the left-handed version of Joe Namath.

Unlike fellow 2020 draftees like QBs Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert, Tua did not instantly light up the NFL. In his early years he was plagued by injuries and concussions so bad that there was talk he might even retire. But this year he stayed healthy and flourished early on in coach Mike McDaniel’s upbeat offence. When Tagovailoa and his speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle put up 70 points against Denver in Game 5 it seemed Miami was the team to beat for the Super Bowl.

But then injuries and defences caught up with the Dolphins. Once again, Tua faded down the stretch. From masters of their fate, the Fins gave up 56 points to Baltimore in Week 17 and then allowed Buffalo to beat them on their home field, losing the AFC East and home-field advantage to the Bills. Thus they were sentenced to the freezing -28 C windchill conditions in KC and a 26-7 spanking from Patrick Mahomes.

Despite being second in yards-per-throw while also ranking top five in yards-per-game and passing touchdowns since 2022, Tua is being branded as a disappointment in big games. Which couldn’t be worse news for the Dolphins. Having extended his contract into a fifth year in 2022, Miami must now decide whether to gamble it all on Tua improving or look for another QB who could get them over the hump.

Or pay the pitiless NFL Pay Piper nonetheless. In the modern NFL, the QB is king and thus must be paid as such. If you have a QB who might— might—be Super Bowl worthy you must pay the equivalent of the GDP of a small African nation. You are also whip-sawed by the certainty that the price for your QB will go up if you dither. Or else letting him go and trying to find another saviour in the unpredictable Draft lottery. In Tua’s case if he stays, that means anywhere from $225 (Hurts) to $275 million (Burrow) on the Miami salary cap with no hope of getting out from it if he stalls.

It’s the same dead end that faced the New York Giants last year where, after extending Daniel Jones’s contract through to the end of his rookie deal, they were forced to pay the unexciting Jones $160 million. Jones lasted six games this season before a season-ending injury. Ditto Washington which dithered on Kirk Cousins, paying him enormous amounts on one-year extensions then losing him to the Vikings in free agency.

While Miami contemplates either arsenic or strychnine in its Tua dilemma, they can look out and see a team that played the QB Casino perfectly. Houston’s C.J. Stroud— selected second in the 2023 Draft— lit up the Cleveland Browns in his first playoff game, looking every inch the Sure Thing NFL clubs crave.

As opposed to Tua, Stroud still has four more years at a very friendly rate. Throughout the four-year rookie contract, Stroud’s cap hit never goes above $11.5 million. That allows the improving Texans to spend on other players needed to win in the postseason.

The Chicago Bears wish. They have entered the extend-or-lose-him phase with fourth-year QB Justin Fields, who flashes some promise but also major warning signs. Do they sign him to the going $250 M rate or use the No. 1 pick in this year’s Draft (obtained from Carolina) on his replacement? Picking wrong will set back the Bears rebuild at least a couple of years.

The Bears are lucky by contrast with the Carolina Panthers who thought they’d answered their QB muddle by trading up, forgoing Stroud to take undersized Alabama QB Bryce Young first overall. His rookie year was a washout, with the Panthers winning just two games and coach Frank Reich fired midway. Critics who loved him at last April’s draft now think Young might be too small for the position, forcing Carolina to go through the whole QB gauntlet once again if, by next year, he is washing out.

Some teams try to add a young QB once they have the other pieces in place, hoping to find someone whom will fit into an existing template. The Detroit Lions are trying to make that equation work with Jared Goff. That was also the thought with Cousins in Minnesota. Just plug-and-play him into a veteran team and voila! Except it hasn’t worked. It rarely does.

Getting a QB to perform over his contract value means riding a young player like Stroud till he gets to the serious money. Then putting other key pieces in place around him. See: Mister Irrelevant Brock Purdy in San Fran where they were able to pay stars like Nick Bosa, DeeBo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Trent Williams because Purdy was costing so little.

Who knows which 2020 QB model will prove to be the template? Based on this past weekend it might just be the guy selected 26th overall who waited behind Aaron Rodgers. Packers QB Jordan Love made himself $500 K in humbling the Dallas Cowboys after a long apprenticeship. His affordability just might take the Packers to the Super Bowl.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his new book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Get Ready: Your House May Not Be Yours Much Longer

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As political scientist Philip Kaufman explains, “If you keep saying you are on stolen land, don’t be surprised when judges give it away to the natives you said you stole it from.” 

“At Dodger Stadium on Monday night, singer JP Saxe re-wrote the lyrics of O Canada. The Toronto pop singer swapped the official “our home and native land” for “our home on native land.”

All things considered the land acknowledgement by Saxe (born Jonathan Percy Starker) is pretty tame stuff in today’s climate where some Canadians are suddenly learning they may not own their homes. But like Justin Trudeau washing “genocidal” Canadian laundry at the UN Saxe’s stunt at the Series is just another sign that Canada’s clever folk remain all-in on humiliating themselves in front of the world over reconciliation.

The latest acknowledgements go beyond an off-key pop singer toying with a song lyric. Just ask citizens of Richmond, B.C. which has sent a letter to residents warning that their property may not belong to them.  This after a B.C. Supreme Court judge ruled the Vancouver Island First Nation have won back fishing rights and title for part of the land its ancestors used as a summer home in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland— despite opposition by two other Indigenous communities.

The gormless BC NDP government, which brought on the crisis by refusing to legally challenge native demands in the Blueberry River dispute, says it’s monitoring the Richmond file, admitting “owning private property with clear title is key to borrowing for a mortgage, economic certainty, and the real estate market.” But no promises, folks.

Naturally the locals are not amused. One Richmond property owner, who says he’s owned and paid taxes on his home since 1975, has been told by his lender they won’t be renewing his mortgage after First Nations land claim.

The Eby government settlement— called by Bruce Pardy “an existential threat to the future of his own province”— is part of a wave of claims both written and oral gaining momentum across the nation. As we wrote in August, “Among those properties in question is the Vancouver International Airport in Richmond, B.C.. How slick is that? A Carney government that ran on protecting Boomers’  primary residence cashboxes has now managed to put the entire notion of fee simple home ownership at risk. 

As blogger Liam Harlow writes, “Indigenous people will now have an unprecedented, parallel title to private property in that area, a legal first of its kind in a court declaration. This title is declared a ‘prior and senior right to land,’ implying a stronger claim, with the court fundamentally asking “what remains of fee simple title after Aboriginal title is recognized in the same lands?”

It doesn’t stop there. Under UNDRIP (United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples) the UN will hold any properties acquired “in trust” for all “aboriginals” as they bicker among themselves for supremacy. Whether Canada’s natives will actually get the land, they will have served as a convenient vehicle for the progressive Left to expand its jurisdiction.

The glass half full on reconciliation holds that Canada’s politicians negotiate a fee with the new native owners to stay on these properties. (Good luck getting a mortgage with the Haida Gwai as co-owners on title.) The glass half empty is your equity goes bye-bye. The decision shocked many earnest Elbows Up types who had no idea their elected governments had fumbled the ball this way. 

This is the culmination of decades of federal Liberal acquiescence on the Indigenous file, incompetence highlighted by Trudeau’s pandering visit to a graveyard that contained no alleged murdered babies. Or his refusal to re-open the main rail lines in 2020 when natives blocked the CP tracks.”

Citizens losing their homes in legal disputes should lead every newscast in the nation. Good luck sparking debate on these onrushing crises. As members of the B.C. legislature discovered when they were fired by their party for articulating a few inconvenient facts on reconciliation. The paid-off media, meanwhile, are too obsessed with Trudeau dating celebrity Katy Perry.

The reconciliation fatwa imposed by the Canadian Left powers the ludicrous ongoing spectacle over the Rez School graves. Based on verbal tradition alone, the prime minister of Canada staged pictures with teddy bears when there has never been a murder charge or a family searching for a dead child ever registered in Canada.

Multi-million dollar payouts by the Canadian government to investigate graves produced no evidence of any bodies— mostly because no effort was made. Evidence shows that children in Rez schools might have had a lower mortality rate from TB than those children in their residences. Or even in the general public.

Anyone challenging this reconciliation orthodoxy is fired from teaching positions, expelled from mainline political parties and banned from polite society. No one in Laurentian media seems willing to touch the hot skillet. No wonder polling in 2024 showed 60 percent of Canadians still believe the genocide claim.

Using this blank cheque indigenous radicals demanded land acknowledgements before meetings, political rallies and sports events. To which Woke Canada has caved. A bill in the BC legislature to ban acknowledgements “that deny the sovereignty of the Crown within British Columbia or that attribute collective guilt to individuals based on race, ancestry or the actions of Canadian historical figures” was quashed (88 of 93 MLAs voting no) The MLA behind the bill, Dallas Brodie, was instructed by a fellow PC MLA to get on the “right side of history.”

Meanwhile activists are in classrooms repeating the sanctity of land acknowledgements, ignoring that these lands had turned over many times in tribal warfare. To take just one example, the Comanche used the horse to go from a Canadian tribe to conquering multiple tribes and civilizations across the continent, stealing land and enslaving women and children. But new history mandates that it was their “ancestral” land. The pattern is repeated across North America.

Canadian liberals shrug at this as all just words and theatre. But as political scientist Philip Kaufman explains, “If you keep saying you are on stolen land, don’t be surprised when judges give it away to the natives you said you stole it from.”  The BC NDP government’s guilt trip is now producing land claims across the country with warning home owners that, guess what, you may not own your home, either. Like this aboriginal challenge over lands in western Quebec.

There may be better ways to inspire radicalism among normally placid Canadians than kicking people out of homes they’ve bought, but for the moment we can’t think of any. And that’s nothing to sing about.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Is Roundball A Square Game? Sports Betting Takes Another Hit

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The most-heard response to last week’s FBI arrests of NBA stars in a gambling sting was “Why do athletes earning millions need to win thousands betting spots?” Coming on the heels of the apparent Shohei Ohtani coverup— his translator took the fall—it also begs the question just how legitimate are the games on which the public bets? Especially with pro sports now partnering with legalized gambling outfits.

There have long been stories of the high-stakes poker and golf games played by Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley and other mega sports celebrities. There was the shocking scandal of former NBA referee Tim Donaghy fixing games for gamblers. Hockey fans remember the tawdry 2006 episode of Wayne Gretzky letting his wife take the fall for betting debts with former NHL star Rick Tocchet.

Now this. NBA Hall of Fame member Chuancy Billups, the suspended coach of the Portland Traiblazers, and Terry Rozier of Miami Heat were the eye candy in the arrest, but the problems go much deeper. If you listen to people like former mob guy Mike Franzese, who now is a security consultant, the reality is not The Sopranos method of busting limbs and shooting deadbeats. It’s more subtle.

According to Franzese the biggest fear for those caught in the web of underworld gambling is exposure of their mistakes. They will do anything to avoid these problems becoming known to their families, their friends and, most of all, their employers. They think the best way to avoid exposure is to play along with mobsters, become a small pawn in crooked betting and poker rings. As if.

So how do they get caught up in there first place? As Franzese explains, “The competition they have on the field spills over into the dressing room, where athletes on the same team often compete with each other in what they think is innocent betting on other sports.” In short they feel like big shots in Guys and Dolls tossing around dice. No one will ever get caught. Pretty soon, these naïve young men are racking up debts in the tens and even hundreds of thousands.

Because they can’t go the bank to finance their debts they end up looking for money on the streets from bookmakers connected to the mob. (It’s why the underworld knew long before the news went public about the bets coming via Ohtani’s translator) And that’s where they get hooked.

The people holding their debt are happy to let their marks get even deeper in debt, so as to have a better grip on them. While the mob guys threaten violence, what they want most is a conduit to the action. So, in the case of Rozier or former Raptor Jontay Porter, they’re asked to shave points on the proposition bets offered on their production. In the case of Billups, they’re asked to front corrupt poker games with whales (big bettors) lured by the promise of celebrities at the table.

Whatever the hook, they hope they can quickly escape the trap, but soon they discover they’re captives till they are of no use in fixing results of drawing big card players. Because they’re often panicked or broke from a divorce or bad investment they try to make the money back quickly. For the reason that even a 60 percent winning percentage is considered high, repeat winners in the 80-90 percent range tip off authorities. Betting pros know not to be conspicuous but to accept a medium return over a long term. But Billups fleecing guys for big stakes in poker is not inconspicuous.

Most often they face the option of going bankrupt or turning evidence to the Feds to escape. Neither is an acceptable fate for someone who, until their habit tripped them up, was considered heroes and role models.

So how straight are the games that people trust for honesty? Especially now that legalized gambling has expanded the pool of bettors incrementally. With everyone looking for an edge or a secret source it’s a temptation trap. The pro sports leagues have security departments always win the lookout for suspicious behaviour, but they are loathe to expose those athletes who have gotten into the trap.

The leagues are also their own worst advocates. Even though Tocchet admitted to the 2006 gambling allegations the NHL has seen fit to let him coach in modern-day NHL. Gretzky turned in his innocence card when MGM needed a front man for its sports betting operation.

Current Tigers manager A.J. Hinch was the manager of the wining Houston Astros when they cheated in the 2022 World Series. And Ohtani continues to star with the Dodgers, despite leaving his gambling-addicted translator in the dressing room of the California/ L.A. Angels for almost five years to soak up the kind of info the mob craves.

Likewise the casinos and betting sites want no exposure from reckless gamblers. Combined with the addictive appeal of betting to the players and fans, the problems are not likely to diminish. As a famous robber once said when asked why he robbed banks, “Because that’s where the money is.”

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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