Business
The Mortgage Maelstrom: Navigating the Impending Financial Tempest in Canada
From The Opposition with Dan Knight substack
As renewal rates surge and interest rates soar, Canadian households stand on the precipice of a fiscal fallout that could redefine the nation’s economic landscape
As we wade through the current economic climate, it’s becoming increasingly clear that a storm is brewing on the Canadian horizon, one that could sweep away the financial stability of countless households. The heart of this looming tempest? The mortgage market—specifically, the shock awaiting about 60% of mortgage holders in the next three years as their terms come up for renewal.
RBC has crunched the numbers and the forecast is grim. More than $186 billion in mortgages is set to renew in 2024 alone, and if today’s interest rates hold, homeowners could see their payments leap by a staggering 32%. And that’s just the beginning. The following year, $315 billion worth of mortgages are on the renewal chopping block, many of which are variable-rate mortgages, potentially pushing the payment shock to 33%.
What’s the root cause? It’s the interest rates—sitting at a 5% benchmark, the highest we’ve seen since the turn of the millennium. If there’s no significant decrease, we’re looking at a tidal wave of credit losses come 2025. And let’s not forget the elephant in the room: those with variable-rate mortgages could face a payment shock as high as 84% by 2026 if the rates stay put.
Here’s the scoop, folks. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem laid out a cold hard truth: fiscal and monetary policy are at loggerheads. While the central bank is straining every sinew to wrestle down inflation with rate hikes, the federal and provincial governments are lighting the fuse with their spending, fueling the very inflation the Bank of Canada is trying to stamp out.
In the red corner, we’ve got the Bank of Canada, gloves on, ready to slug inflation down to its target by 2025. In the blue corner, Trudeau’s government, doling out dollars like there’s no tomorrow. What does this mean for John and Jane Doe on Main Street? As their mortgage renewals roll in, they’re staring down the barrel of a 32% to a mind-boggling 84% payment shock.
Folks, let’s cut to the chase. This economic quagmire we’re sinking into? It’s got Trudeau’s fingerprints all over it. The fabric of Canadian society is getting shredded not by accident, but by a government playing fast and loose with fiscal policy. The Bank of Canada is scrambling to counteract with rate hikes, but Trudeau’s Liberals seem hell-bent on doling out dollars like candy on Halloween, inflaming inflation and leaving families to foot the bill.
As for Trudeau, he’s steering the ship with a blindfold on, and the polls? They’re reading like an obituary for the Liberals’ prospects. Come the next federal election, if these mortgage hikes hit as hard as predicted, Trudeau’s so-called economic strategy could be the very thing that buries his political future. We’re not just talking about a swing in the voting booths; we’re talking about a full-scale revolt from a populace that’s had enough of being ignored in the face of an economic abyss.
As Canadians navigate the turbulent waters of an economy where the dream of homeownership slips through their fingers and the basic necessity of putting food on the table becomes a herculean task, the political pageantry of promised dental plans rings hollow. When the ballots are drawn, the echo of dissatisfaction will thunder across the voting booths. Yes, my dear readers, as the national mood simmers with the desire for change, there’s a palpable sense that a political reckoning looms on the horizon — a red wedding in the electoral sense, where the old guard may be unseated in a dramatic upheaval.
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Business
Vacant Somali Daycares In Viral Videos Are Also Linked To $300 Million ‘Feeding Our Future’ Fraud

From the Daily Caller News Foundation
Multiple Somali daycare centers highlighted in a viral YouTube exposé on alleged fraud in Minnesota have direct ties to a nonprofit at the center of a $300 million scam, the Minnesota Star Tribune reported Thursday.
The now-infamous videos from YouTube influencer Nick Shirley, posted Dec. 26, showed several purported Somali-run daycare centers receiving millions in taxpayer funds despite little evidence that children were actually present at the facilities. Now it turns out that five of the 10 daycare centers Shirley visited operated as meal sites for Feeding Our Future, the Minnesota-based nonprofit implicated in a massive fraud scheme that has already produced dozens of convictions, the outlet reported.
Between 2018 and 2021, those five businesses received nearly $5 million from Feeding Our Future, the outlet reported. While none of the centers in Shirley’s video have been legally accused of wrongdoing, the revelations underscore the sprawling web of fraud engulfing the state. (RELATED: Somalis Reportedly Filled Ohio Strip Mall With Potential Fraudulent Childcare Centers)
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🚨 Here is the full 42 minutes of my crew and I exposing Minnesota fraud, this might be my most important work yet. We uncovered over $110,000,000 in ONE day. Like it and share it around like wildfire! Its time to hold these corrupt politicians and fraudsters accountable
We ALL… pic.twitter.com/E3Penx2o7a
— Nick shirley (@nickshirleyy) December 26, 2025
Federal prosecutors have charged over 70 individuals — mostly from the Somali community — with stealing more than $300 million from the Federal Child Nutrition Program through Feeding Our Future. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the program funded sites across Minnesota to provide meals to children. Prosecutors say leaders of Feeding Our Future, along with dozens of associates who ran sponsored “meal sites,” submitted false or inflated meal counts to claim reimbursements.
One facility featured in Shirley’s video, the Minnesota Best Childcare Center, received $1.5 million from Feeding Our Future, according to the Minnesota Star Tribune.
Minnesota Best Childcare Center, which has been licensed by the state since 2013, did not respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
Other daycares featured in Shirley’s video have been cited dozens of times for rule violations while continuing to receive millions in state funding. The now-infamous Quality “Learing” Center was cited for 121 violations in the past three years, including for failing to report a “death, serious injury, fire or emergency as required,” according to the Star-Tribune.
The paper’s investigation found that six of the facilities featured by Shirley were either closed or employees did not open their doors.
Following that exposé, which has accumulated more than 135 million views on X, the Trump administration announced it would freeze all childcare disbursements to Minnesota while federal officials review how taxpayer dollars have flowed to licensed providers.
The fraud allegations extend beyond childcare, with prosecutors claiming millions in taxpayer funds were also stolen from Minnesota’s Housing Stabilization Services and autism treatment programs. Federal prosecutors also estimate that as much as half of the roughly $18 billion Minnesota has spent since 2018 on 14 Medicaid programs may have been siphoned off by fraudsters.
Even the state’s assisted living program has come under scrutiny, with Republican state Rep. Kristin Robbins warning that individuals connected to the Feeding Our Future scheme continue to receive millions in taxpayer funds.
Business
The great policy challenge for governments in Canada in 2026
From the Fraser Institute
According to a recent study, living standards in Canada have declined over the past five years. And the country’s economic growth has been “ugly.” Crucially, all 10 provinces are experiencing this economic stagnation—there are no exceptions to Canada’s “ugly” growth record. In 2026, reversing this trend should be the top priority for the Carney government and provincial governments across the country.
Indeed, demographic and economic data across the country tell a remarkably similar story over the past five years. While there has been some overall economic growth in almost every province, in many cases provincial populations, fuelled by record-high levels of immigration, have grown almost as quickly. Although the total amount of economic production and income has increased from coast to coast, there are more people to divide that income between. Therefore, after we account for inflation and population growth, the data show Canadians are not better off than they were before.
Let’s dive into the numbers (adjusted for inflation) for each province. In British Columbia, the economy has grown by 13.7 per cent over the past five years but the population has grown by 11.0 per cent, which means the vast majority of the increase in the size of the economy is likely due to population growth—not improvements in productivity or living standards. In fact, per-person GDP, a key indicator of living standards, averaged only 0.5 per cent per year over the last five years, which is a miserable result by historic standards.
A similar story holds in other provinces. Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Quebec and Saskatchewan all experienced some economic growth over the past five years but their populations grew at almost exactly the same rate. As a result, living standards have barely budged. In the remaining provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Ontario, Manitoba and Alberta), population growth has outstripped economic growth, which means that even though the economy grew, living standards actually declined.
This coast-to-coast stagnation of living standards is unique in Canadian history. Historically, there’s usually variation in economic performance across the country—when one region struggles, better performance elsewhere helps drive national economic growth. For example, in the early 2010s while the Ontario and Quebec economies recovered slowly from the 2008/09 recession, Alberta and other resource-rich provinces experienced much stronger growth. Over the past five years, however, there has not been a “good news” story anywhere in the country when it comes to per-person economic growth and living standards.
In reality, Canada’s recent record-high levels of immigration and population growth have helped mask the country’s economic weakness. With more people to buy and sell goods and services, the overall economy is growing but living standards have barely budged. To craft policies to help raise living standards for Canadian families, policymakers in Ottawa and every provincial capital should remove regulatory barriers, reduce taxes and responsibly manage government finances. This is the great policy challenge for governments across the country in 2026 and beyond.
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