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Prime Minister Trudeau heads to NATO summit, where leaders face critical decisions

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau departs Ottawa on Sunday, June 25, 2023, en route to Iceland. Trudeau is heading to the NATO leaders’ summit in Lithuania this week, where Canada is likely to play a larger-than-usual role in two critical discussions: the alliance’s expanding membership and its efforts to refocus on collective defence. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

By Sarah Ritchie in Ottawa

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is heading to the NATO leaders’ summit in Lithuania this week, where Canada is likely to play a larger-than-usual role in two critical discussions: the alliance’s expanding membership and its efforts to refocus on collective defence.

Trudeau is expected to depart for Riga, Latvia, from Ottawa on Sunday evening. He is due to meet with that country’s leaders on Monday before heading to the Lithuanian capital for the first day of the NATO summit on Tuesday.

At last year’s summit in Madrid, NATO leaders identified Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area” in a strategic concept document that set out their intent to strengthen deterrence and defence in the region.

That came after a meeting in Brussels in March 2022, when leaders agreed to deploy four new multinational battle groups on the eastern flank in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, adding to those in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

The alliance has drafted a new defence plan that leaders will be asked to approve in Vilnius, one that is being described as a return to its Cold War stance.

“What we’re seeing now is really a return to NATO’s core business,” said Tim Sayle, a NATO historian and professor at the University of Toronto.

He said this likely also means a return to more challenging negotiations among members as they decide on defence policy and procurement, at the same time as they are debating whether to allow Sweden and Ukraine to join. And on both topics, he said, allies will be looking to Canada.

“Rarely are there summits where Canada would be a focus of any elements, but I do think (it) is here,” Sayle said.

“Canada has a decision to make about its role in the discussion about Ukraine, but it also has this decision to make about Canadian defence spending and just what kind of ally Canada is going to be.”

Adm. Rob Bauer, the chair of NATO’s military committee, told media at a July 3 briefing that the new defence plan is split into three parts: the southeast region including the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, the central region from the Baltics to the Alps and the High North and Atlantic region.

Once the plans are approved, the real work begins. “Then we have to go and do our work to reach the higher number of forces with a higher readiness, we need to exercise against the plans, we need to buy the capabilities that we require,” Bauer said.

That will require more money. Only about a third of NATO members are meeting the agreed-upon target of spending two per cent of their GDP on defence — which includes a pledge to dedicate one-fifth of that funding to equipment.

Bauer said he expects two per cent will be the spending floor, instead of the target, by the time the summit is over.

“There is perhaps a stronger link than ever before between the new defence plans, the new defence investment pledge and the NATO defence planning process,” NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said at the July 3 briefing.

For the countries that are lagging behind, there will be increasing pressure to step up.

Canada spends about 1.3 per cent of its GDP on defence and has no public plan to get to the current target. Defence Minister Anita Anand has insisted that Canada’s contributions to the defence of Ukraine and its leadership in heading up a NATO battle group in Latvia are more important.

Before attending the NATO summit, Trudeau is set to participate in meetings Monday with Latvia’s president, Edgars Rinkēvičs, and its prime minister, Krišjānis Kariņš.

Trudeau is also expected to meet Canadian Armed Forces members who are part of the country’s largest overseas mission.

But even in Latvia, Canada seems to be lagging behind. It’s been more than a year since Anand pledged to expand the battle group to a combat-ready brigade, and detailed plans are still being negotiated. Battle groups typically have close to 1,000 troops, while military members in a brigade number about 3,000.

Canada has committed to sending a tank squadron with 15 Leopard 2 tanks and some 130 personnel to Latvia starting this fall, but it is unclear how many more troops will join the 800 Canadians already in place.

Other countries have gone further. Germany has pledged to station a 4,000-soldier brigade in Lithuania. The United Kingdom, which is leading a battle group in Estonia, and the United States, which leads another in Poland, tested their ability to quickly scale up to a brigade earlier this spring.

Leaders in Vilnius are also likely to focus on the status of Sweden and Ukraine, each of which has asked to join NATO.

Last-minute talks aimed at getting Turkiye and Hungary on side with allowing Sweden to become a member have not been successful. Its Nordic neighbour Finland joined most recently, in April.

If Sweden’s membership is approved, Bauer said it won’t take long to adapt the defence plans.

“Sweden is at the table in the military committee, in the North Atlantic Council every week. So they know basically everything already,” he said.

More contentious than that is the issue of when to admit Ukraine.

Some nations are pushing for immediate membership. U.K. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said last month that he hopes to see an expedited process.

Meanwhile, Trudeau has repeatedly stated that Canada supports Ukraine’s membership “when the conditions are right,” without defining what those conditions are.

Sayle said it’s likely that other countries will expect a clearer response this time given the magnitude of the decision: whether to admit a nation that is in the midst of an active invasion to an alliance focused on collective defence.

“I think that what NATO says about Ukrainian membership will impact both the Ukrainian and Russian strategic calculations in this war, and any peace that might follow,” Sayle said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 9, 2023.

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Disaster

Texas flood kills 43 including children at Christian camp

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Quick Hit:

Flash flooding in Kerr County, Texas has left at least 43 people dead—including 15 children—after a wall of water tore through camps and neighborhoods along the Guadalupe River. Among the victims were young girls attending a Christian summer camp, as families grieve and recovery efforts intensify.

Key Details:

  • Officials confirmed Saturday that 43 people have died—28 adults and 15 children—following early Friday morning floods in Kerr County. Seventeen victims remain unidentified.
  • Four young girls who died—ages 8 and 9—were attending Camp Mystic, a nearly 100-year-old Christian summer camp for girls. Dozens of campers were briefly unaccounted for.
  • The camp’s director, Dick Eastland, was among the dead after reportedly racing to a cabin in an effort to save girls trapped in rising waters. Another local camp director also died.

Diving Deeper:

Texas is reeling from one of the deadliest flash floods in recent memory, with at least 43 confirmed dead—including 15 children—after floodwaters surged through Kerr County early Friday morning. Officials said 12 adults and five children have yet to be identified.

Much of the devastation centered around the historic Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls situated along the Guadalupe River, where dozens of campers were swept up in the flood. Family members have since confirmed that four of the victims—8-year-olds Renee Smajstrla and Sarah Marsh, and 9-year-olds Janie Hunt and Lila Bonner—had been attending the camp.

Renee’s uncle reportedly wrote on Facebook that she was “living her best life at Camp Mystic.” Sarah’s family shared that the Alabama girl was “a spunky ray of light,” while Lila’s relatives described their pain as “unimaginable.”

The camp’s longtime director, Dick Eastland, died heroically while trying to rescue girls from a cabin as waters rushed through the grounds. Another director, Jane Ragsdale of the nearby Heart O’ the Hills Camp, was also killed. Though her camp wasn’t in session, she was on the property when the flood struck.

Camp Mystic, which serves hundreds of girls each summer, was left in ruins. “The camp was completely destroyed,” said 13-year-old Elinor Lester, who was among those rescued. Photos show cabins torn open, trees ripped from the ground, and bunk beds submerged nearly to the top by river water.

As many as 27 girls at the camp were swept up by the flooding, but several have since been reunited with their families. Ashley Flack, whose daughter attended Mystic, said Saturday, “There are lots of families missing, children and friends… Our daughter is safe. Our son is safe. The operation to get the girl camp out did a good job.”

Rescue missions pulled at least 858 people to safety, and eight were reported injured. Officials noted that while other nearby camps were also impacted, those campers have been accounted for and are awaiting evacuation as crews work to repair damaged roads.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott expanded a disaster declaration on Saturday to include 21 counties. More than 1,000 state personnel and 800 vehicles are assisting in rescue and recovery, while FEMA, the Texas National Guard, and Coast Guard aircraft have been deployed to aid in the search.

President Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday, saying: “Melania and I are praying for all of the families impacted by this horrible tragedy. Our Brave First Responders are on site doing what they do best. GOD BLESS THE FAMILIES, AND GOD BLESS TEXAS!”

Forecasters say more rain could fall over the next 48 hours, raising the risk of additional flooding across Central Texas. The Guadalupe River last saw similar tragedy in 1987, when 10 teenagers died after a church bus was swept away.

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Business

Dallas mayor invites NYers to first ‘sanctuary city from socialism’

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From The Center Square

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After the self-described socialist Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic primary for mayor in New York, Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson invited New Yorkers and others to move to Dallas.

Mamdani has vowed to implement a wide range of tax increases on corporations and property and to “shift the tax burden” to “richer and whiter neighborhoods.”

New York businesses and individuals have already been relocating to states like Texas, which has no corporate or personal income taxes.

Johnson, a Black mayor and former Democrat, switched parties to become a Republican in 2023 after opposing a city council tax hike, The Center Square reported.

“Dear Concerned New York City Resident or Business Owner: Don’t panic,” Johnson said. “Just move to Dallas, where we strongly support our police, value our partners in the business community, embrace free markets, shun excessive regulation, and protect the American Dream!”

Fortune 500 companies and others in recent years continue to relocate their headquarters to Dallas; it’s also home to the new Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE). The TXSE will provide an alternative to the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq and there are already more finance professionals in Texas than in New York, TXSE Group Inc. founder and CEO James Lee argues.

From 2020-2023, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA reported the greatest percentage of growth in the country of 34%, The Center Square reported.

Johnson on Thursday continued his invitation to New Yorkers and others living in “socialist” sanctuary cities, saying on social media, “If your city is (or is about to be) a sanctuary for criminals, mayhem, job-killing regulations, and failed socialist experiments, I have a modest invitation for you: MOVE TO DALLAS. You can call us the nation’s first official ‘Sanctuary City from Socialism.’”

“We value free enterprise, law and order, and our first responders. Common sense and the American Dream still reside here. We have all your big-city comforts and conveniences without the suffocating vice grip of government bureaucrats.”

As many Democratic-led cities joined a movement to defund their police departments, Johnson prioritized police funding and supporting law and order.

“Back in the 1800s, people moving to Texas for greater opportunities would etch ‘GTT’ for ‘Gone to Texas’ on their doors moving to the Mexican colony of Tejas,” Johnson continued, referring to Americans who moved to the Mexican colony of Tejas to acquire land grants from the Mexican government.

“If you’re a New Yorker heading to Dallas, maybe try ‘GTD’ to let fellow lovers of law and order know where you’ve gone,” Johnson said.

Modern-day GTT movers, including a large number of New Yorkers, cite high personal income taxes, high property taxes, high costs of living, high crime, and other factors as their reasons for leaving their states and moving to Texas, according to multiple reports over the last few years.

In response to Johnson’s invitation, Gov. Greg Abbott said, “Dallas is the first self-declared “Sanctuary City from Socialism. The State of Texas will provide whatever support is needed to fulfill that mission.”

The governor has already been doing this by signing pro-business bills into law and awarding Texas Enterprise Grants to businesses that relocate or expand operations in Texas, many of which are doing so in the Dallas area.

“Texas truly is the Best State for Business and stands as a model for the nation,” Abbott said. “Freedom is a magnet, and Texas offers entrepreneurs and hardworking Texans the freedom to succeed. When choosing where to relocate or expand their businesses, more innovative industry leaders recognize the competitive advantages found only in Texas. The nation’s leading CEOs continually cite our pro-growth economic policies – with no corporate income tax and no personal income tax – along with our young, skilled, diverse, and growing workforce, easy access to global markets, robust infrastructure, and predictable business-friendly regulations.”

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