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Political realignment in 2024 has changed American politics

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From The Center Square

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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off at the ballot box on Tuesday with control of the U.S. Senate and House up for grabs.

This election cycle has featured unusual alliances and demographic shifts not seen in recent elections.

Billionaire Elon Musk joined former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and former Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to endorse Trump this time around.

Meanwhile, Harris has taken to the campaign trail with former Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, meaning the iconic Kennedy and Cheney brands are opposing one another yet again, but from the opposite sides this time around.

Those changes come alongside unusual demographic inroads for Trump while men shift more Republican and women favor Democrats, an apparently widening gap for the two sexes.

Union workers, Hispanic voters, and Black voters are traditionally Democratic-favoring demographics that Trump has managed to curry favor with this election.

“He’s changed the makeup of the Republican coalition, and some of them are formerly Democratic,” campaign veteran and former Mitt Romney spokesperson Ryan Williams told The Center Square. “And if you are in a tight race in a purple state, you want to appeal to those voters and try to get them to split their ticket.”

Polling shows that Harris has about 80% support among Black voters nationally. Former President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and President Joe Biden all managed to get between 90% and 95% support from Black voters.

Trump has marginally increased his support among Black voters and made even better strides among Hispanic voters.

As The Center Square previously reported, ​​Noble Predictive Insights published new polling Tuesday reporting that Harris leads Trump with Black voters 78% to 20% and with Hispanic voters 50% to 45%.

“He’s reminiscent of Bush 2004 numbers,” said Williams, now at Targeted Victory, referring to when former President George W. Bush got 40-44% of the Hispanic vote, depending on which survey or analysis you cite.

“Trump can reach out and connect to these voters in a way that my old boss, Mitt Romney, couldn’t,” Williams continued. “That’s not to say that Republicans are going to win these groups, but they are going to lessen the margin which is why I think that this race is so close at this point.

“You are essentially heading into a dead heat in so many states because Trump has managed to slice into traditionally Democratic constituencies and narrow the margins,” he added.

The demographic realignment has a big impact in down-ballot U.S. House and Senate races with 33 Senate seats in the balance. All 435 House seats are up for reelection every two years.

In the Senate, Democrats are defending about twice as many seats as Republicans, painting a tough picture for the party. Republicans are also considered slight favorites to take the U.S. House, according to betting markets.

Democrats have been working hard to resurrect their relationship with Black voters, with Harris rolling out new policies and even Obama chiding Black men about not voting for Harris.

Last month, Obama told a gathering of Black men to vote for Harris and suggested they would not support her because she was a woman, a comment that sparked pushback and criticism for Democrats.

“Respectfully, President Obama, what you said is not acceptable,” ESPN’s most famous host, Stephen A Smith, who is Black, said on one of his shows after the remarks. “Is it possible that the reason some Black folks may not be inclined to vote or may be a bit disenchanted or dare I say may go as far as voting for Trump, is it possible that it’s policy as opposed to misogyny?

“Inflation, the cost of living, the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, that don’t matter?” he continued. “Immigration and our borders and this belief that there’s an elevated level of sensitivity toward them as opposed to Black folks struggling if not starving in this country? Yes that plays a role too.”

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Crime

Letter Shows Biden Administration Privately Warned B.C. on Fentanyl Threat Years Before Patel’s Public Bombshells

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Fentanyl super lab busted in BC

In recent interviews with Joe Rogan and Fox News, FBI Director Kash Patel alleged that Vancouver has become a global hub for fentanyl production and export—part of a transnational network linking Chinese Communist Party-associated suppliers and Mexican drug cartels, and exploiting systemic weaknesses in Canada’s border enforcement. “What they’re doing now … is they’re shipping that stuff not straight [into the United States],” Patel told Rogan, citing classified intelligence. “They’re having the Mexican cartels now make this fentanyl down in Mexico still, but instead of going right up the southern border and into America, they’re flying it into Vancouver. They’re taking the precursors up to Canada, manufacturing it up there, and doing their global distribution routes from up there because we’ve been so effective down south.”

His comments prompted a public response from B.C. Premier David Eby’s top cop, Solicitor General Garry Begg, who disputed the scale of the allegations.

Controversially, Patel also asserted that Washington believes Beijing is intentionally targeting the United States with fentanyl to harm younger generations—especially for strategic purposes.

But a diplomatic letter obtained exclusively by The Bureau supports the view that high-level U.S. concerns—nearly identical to Patel’s—were privately raised by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken two years earlier.

The Blinken letter suggests that these concerns were already being voiced at the highest levels of U.S. diplomacy and intelligence in 2023—under a Democratic administration—which counters a widespread misperception in Canadian political and media spheres that the Trump administration has distorted facts about Vancouver’s role in global fentanyl trafficking logistics.

In a letter dated May 25, 2023, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrote to Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West, thanking him for participating in a fentanyl-focused roundtable at the Cities Summit of the Americas in Denver. According to West, only several mayors were invited to discuss the FBI’s strategic focus on transnational organized crime and fentanyl trafficking—an indication of the summit’s targeted focus on British Columbia. “Thank you for discussing your city’s experiences with synthetic opioids and providing valuable lessons learned we can share throughout the region,” Blinken wrote.

The letter suggested U.S. officials were not only increasingly seeing Canadian municipalities as critical partners in a hemispheric fight against synthetic drug trafficking, but viewed Mayor West as a trusted partner in British Columbia.

West told The Bureau that Blinken privately expressed the same controversial and jarring assessment that Patel later made publicly—essentially arguing that the U.S. government had assessed that China is intentionally weaponizing fentanyl against North America, and that Chinese Communist Party-linked networks are strategically operating in concert with Latin cartels.

According to The Bureau’s reporting, Blinken described growing frustration among U.S. federal agencies over Canada’s legal and enforcement deficiencies. He pointed to what American officials saw as systemic obstacles in Canadian law that made it difficult to act on intelligence involving fentanyl production, chemical precursor shipments, and laundering operations tied to cartel and CCP-linked actors.

West told The Bureau that the U.S. government was alarmed that a major money laundering investigation in British Columbia—targeting the notorious Sam Gor synthetic narcotics syndicate, which collaborates with Mexican cartels in Western Hemisphere fentanyl trafficking and money laundering, according to U.S. experts—had collapsed in Canadian court proceedings. The Bureau has confirmed with a Canadian police veteran that this investigation originated from U.S. government intelligence.

West, a vocal critic of Canada’s handling of transnational organized crime, said U.S. agencies had begun withholding sensitive intelligence, citing a lack of confidence in Canada’s ability—or willingness—to act on it.

Blinken also framed the crisis in a broader hemispheric context, noting that while national leaders met at the Ninth Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles to address the shared challenges facing the region, it was city leaders who served at the forefront of tackling those threats.

Patel’s recent public statements—which singled out Vancouver as a production hub and described air and sea trafficking routes into the U.S.—have revived the debate around Canada’s role in the opioid crisis. U.S. experts, such as former senior DEA investigator Donald Im, argue that northern border seizure statistics do not capture the majority of fentanyl activity emanating from Canada as monitored by U.S. law enforcement.

Im cited, for example, the case of Arden McCann, a Montreal man indicted in the Northern District of Georgia and accused of mailing synthetic opioids—including fentanyl, carfentanil, U-47700, and furanyl fentanyl—from Canada and China into the United States. According to the indictment, McCann—also known as “The Mailman” and “Dr. Xanax”—trafficked quantities capable of causing mass casualty events. He was later sentenced to 30 years in federal prison for operating a dark web narcotics network that, between 2015 and 2020, distributed fentanyl to 49 states and generated more than $10 million in revenue.

As part of that investigation, the DEA reported that Canadian authorities seized approximately two million counterfeit Xanax pills, five pill presses, alprazolam powder, 3,000 MDMA pills, more than $200,000 in cash, 15 firearms, ballistic vests, and detailed drug ledgers. The ledgers showed that McCann and his co-conspirators purchased alprazolam from suppliers in China, pressed the powder into counterfeit Xanax pills, and sold the product to U.S. buyers via dark web marketplaces.

 

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conflict

One dead, over 60 injured after Iranian missiles pierce Iron Dome

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MXM logo MxM News 

Quick Hit:

Iran launched four waves of missile attacks Friday night, breaching Israel’s defenses and killing at least one person. Over 60 others were injured, with the IDF confirming direct strikes on civilian areas in Tel Aviv and central Israel.

Key Details:

  • The Israel Defense Forces reported four rounds of Iranian missile fire, with at least ten missiles making impact inside Israel.

  • One person was killed and 63 wounded, including several in critical condition, according to The Jerusalem Post.

  • The IDF said Iran deliberately targeted civilians, contrasting its own earlier strikes that focused on Iranian military assets.

Diving Deeper:

Several Iranian missiles broke through Israel’s air defenses during Friday night’s attack, striking Tel Aviv and other civilian areas. According to The Jerusalem Post, at least 63 people were wounded and one person was killed after four waves of Iranian ballistic missile strikes hit cities across Israel.

The IDF reportedly said roughly 100 missiles were fired in total. While the Iron Dome intercepted many, multiple missiles made it through and exploded in densely populated areas. Dramatic video showed a missile striking near downtown Tel Aviv, sending fire and debris into the air as people ran for cover.

Army Radio confirmed that ten missiles landed inside Israel between the first two waves. By the time the third and fourth waves hit, injuries had climbed sharply, with several listed in critical condition. The one fatality was reported late Friday night.

The Israeli Home Front Command temporarily allowed civilians to exit shelters but quickly reversed that guidance, urging residents to stay near protected areas amid fears of further attacks.

The IDF emphasized the nature of the targets, calling out Iran for targeting civilians. The IDF also released maps showing where air raid sirens were triggered throughout the night. Though Israel’s Home Front Command briefly allowed civilians to exit shelters, it advised them to remain nearby in case of continued strikes. As of late Friday, Iranian officials claimed a fifth wave could follow.

With tensions still high, Israeli defense officials are preparing for potential further escalation—and weighing how to respond to a direct Iranian attack on civilians.

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