From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Austin Thompson

House prices in Toronto are declining. But the city’s affordability crisis is far from over—and government policies will likely make it worse.

While most Torontonians know there’s a crisis, the numbers make it clear. According to our new study, in 2023 (the latest year of available data), a family earning the city’s median after-tax income ($60,510) had to save $216,240 (the equivalent of 42.9 months of its after-tax income) for a 20 per cent downpayment on a typical home of any type (single-detached, semi-detached, condominium). But even if that family could somehow clear this monumental hurdle, it then had to dedicate 110.2 per cent of its after-tax income for monthly mortgage payments ($5,557)—a financial impossibility, unless the family can share housing costs (e.g. live-in tenants) or rely on financial support from elsewhere.

At this point, some long-time Toronto residents might recall their own difficult home purchase and think, “Hasn’t it always been this bad?” But just a decade ago, the hurdles weren’t nearly as high.

For example, in 2014 in Toronto, a 20 per cent downpayment cost 26.4 months of median after-tax family income—not 42.9 months. And the monthly mortgage payment on a typical home purchase required 56.0 per cent of median after-tax family income—not 110.2 per cent. So yes, typical homes have been broadly unaffordable for median-income-earning Toronto families for years, but it’s way worse now.

For Torontonians priced out of homeownership, renting has not offered much relief. In 2023, Toronto had the least affordable rents in Canada. The monthly cost of the median rental unit was $1,750, equal to 34.7 per cent of the median after-tax family income. That’s up from $1,110 (or 27.7 per cent of after-tax income) in 2014.

Fast-forward to today, and Torontonians should view reports of “crashing” home prices in the proper context. Typical home prices peaked at $1.27 million in the first quarter of 2022. By the second quarter of 2025, they had fallen to $1.00 million. That’s a marked decline, but prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels and far beyond the reach of most typical families.

And while the fall in house prices hasn’t been enough to restore affordability, it has caused a steep contraction in homebuilding as builders take a more cautious approach to development at a time when the city still needs more new homes to improve affordability.

This unhealthy dynamic, where price declines weigh heavily on housing construction, is made worse by government policy. Despite hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars spent on housing initiatives by the federal government, the Ford government and Toronto City Hall, key provincial and municipal policies continue to impose needless costs and restrictions on new housing.

For example, Toronto homebuilders must endure costly wait times of more than two years for municipal approvals—more than three times longer than in Vancouver and seven times longer than in Edmonton. New high-rise developments in Toronto face municipal charges of $134,900 per unit compared to $38,100 in Ottawa and $6,900 in Edmonton. Meanwhile, the Ford government has backed away from several critical recommendations from its own Housing Task Force, which would make it easier to build more and denser housing, such as allowing fourplexes provincewide without special approval.

Of course, federal immigration policy, particularly over the last five years, has increased demand for new homes in Toronto and across the country. But even so, if not for lengthy approval processes, sky-high fees and restrictive land-use policies, many more new homes would be built in Toronto today despite declining prices. Homes only get built when buyers can cover the cost of construction plus a reasonable return on investment for developers. But when governments drive up costs, increase uncertainty and claim a significant share of the final sale price through fees and charges, projects that might otherwise proceed can become financially unviable. The result is less new housing, fewer options for buyers and a slower path to improved affordability.

To help improve housing affordability, Toronto needs a steady flow of new homebuilding. Torontonians should demand faster approvals, lower fees and more sensible rules on what types of homes can be built.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Roslyn Kunin

Canada’s biggest policy mistakes come from treating complex systems as simple math

Here is an old story with a valuable message. In the directed economy of the USSR, it was the government, not markets, that decided what and how much was to be produced.

Take metalware for the kitchen: mugs, mixing bowls, pots, pans, dishpans and washtubs. The government decided how much people needed and ordered the industry to produce that many tons at the lowest possible price.

Quotas were met, the appropriate tonnage was produced and costs were controlled. But no mug, pot or dishpan was to be found. The industry found that the easiest way to meet its cost and quantity requirements was to produce nothing but washtubs.

It is a valuable reminder today for Canada: when policymakers rely on a single number to steer complex systems, they almost always get the wrong results.

There are at least three reasons why we need better analysis in policymaking. The first is that the things inside a total number are not all the same. Mugs and washtubs are not interchangeable.

The second is unintended consequences. How did devoting metal to domestic products affect other metal-using sectors like automobile production? The same pattern appears in modern Canadian policy: shifting one number often disrupts systems we depend on elsewhere.

Third, picking a number to solve a problem is often an easy way to avoid doing a rigorous cost-benefit analysis that would offer a clear indication of the overall effectiveness and impact of any decision. Too often, our debates jump straight to targets instead of evidence.

We like to think that policy decisions in Canada are decided on more than just picking a magic number and waiting for it to solve a problem. That is not always the case. Policies for both the housing market and labour market could benefit from more detailed analysis.

Canada faces a severe housing shortage, not only in the major cities, but also in smaller centres as people move there from metro areas and push up home prices. One-number thinking has led the government to drastically cut back the number of people coming into Canada on a permanent or temporary basis believing that thousands of fewer new arrivals will make available thousands more housing units.

This is not likely, especially when considering temporary workers. Many of these are international students. The number of housing units freed by their absence is significantly lower than the reduction in student visas issued. Many students stay in dorms or other student housing. Others crowd together in apartments or houses to save costs. Not much housing is freed to deal with the shortage.

One serious unintended consequence of cutting back student visas is the negative impact on educational institutions which have been relying on the generous fees that foreign students pay to deal with the constrained fees and limited funding imposed on them by governments.

Cutting back on the number of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) will also have a minimal effect on the supply of housing in the major centres where shortages are most severe. TFWs are most needed in industries like agriculture and in smaller centres where their absence will be sorely felt.

Looking at the labour market, it is unrealistic to expect unemployed Canadians to fill these job gaps. People in major cities rarely move to remote areas to take lower-paying work. Cutting back TFWs will harm the sectors and places that rely
on them. Differences in geography, occupations and preferences ensure that workers are not interchangeable.

Homes are not interchangeable either. They have to be in the places where people choose to live, and they have to be affordable. In many places like Vancouver, the actual and potential number of homes is enough to house everyone who needs one, especially if the development permits now being sought result in actual construction. But in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, the benchmark price of a home has risen far faster than wages for more than a decade, making many new units unaffordable even when supply increases.

Builders are now having trouble filling existing units because they did not pay enough attention to affordability. The cost of producing a housing unit is higher than what most Canadians can pay, even after the size of a home has shrunk below what most Canadians are used to. As a result, builders are lowering prices and rents and offering other inducements to potential residents. Builders are now lowering prices and rents and/or offering other inducements to potential residents.

Let us hope that our educational institutions will be able to produce, and our immigration policies will allow us to admit, qualified people who can develop and implement policies based on more than one number.

Canada needs decisions grounded in reality, not wishful targets.

Dr. Roslyn Kunin is a respected Canadian economist known for her extensive work in economic forecasting, public policy, and labour market analysis. She has held various prominent roles, including serving as the regional director for the federal
government’s Department of Employment and Immigration in British Columbia and Yukon and as an adjunct professor at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Kunin is also recognized for her contributions to economic development, particularly in Western Canada.

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