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Ottawa’s GST break and rebate cheques amount to bad policy

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

On Thursday, the House of Commons passed legislation (tabled by the Trudeau government) that would temporarily suspend the federal Goods and Services Tax (GST) on select items from December 14 to February 15 at an estimated cost of $1.6 billion, as part of the government’s “more money in your pocket” plan. The legislation now goes to the Senate for approval.

The government has delayed a separate proposal—to give Canadians $250 rebate cheques—in light of NDP demands to expand eligibility to include seniors. The original proposal would have sent cheques to an estimated 18.7 million Canadians (who worked in 2023 and earned $150,000 or less) at a cost of $4.7 billion. While aimed at all Canadians, this proposal is eerily similar to the recent move by Ontario’s Ford government, which plans to send $200 cheques to Ontarians. And again, it’s just bad policy.

Why?

Consider this. During the recent discussion about increasing Old Age Security payments by 10 per cent for seniors aged 65 to 74, former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge said, “The last thing that we need to be spending money on at this point in time is boosting consumption for relatively well-off people.” This critique also applies to the Trudeau government’s $250 rebate cheques, which would go to many well-off Canadians. Indeed, based on the government’s original proposal, a couple earning a combined household income of up to $300,000 could receive these cheques.

Moreover, because onetime payouts and temporary tax breaks don’t incentivize people to work and invest, they don’t help raise living standards. But permanent tax cuts, such as reducing personal income tax rates or lowering capital gains taxes, would provide a stronger incentive for Canadians to work more and make investments because they get to keep more of the money they earn. That would help drive economic growth, create jobs and provide more economic opportunities for workers across the income spectrum.

In fact, the Trudeau government’s plan may actually hurt economic growth in the long run. The government is expected to run budget deficits for the foreseeable future, and will likely borrow the billions needed to pay for the GST break and $250 cheques. In other words, this “relief” package will likely increase the federal deficit in 2024 and potentially 2025. By borrowing more money, the government will increase the tax burden on future generations of Canadians who ultimately must pay off today’s debt. And just as lower taxes improve economic incentives, this higher future tax burden will worsen incentives and likely stifle economic growth and reduce living standards.

Don’t be deceived. While it’s nice to get a cheque in the mail and have a couple months free of the GST for some items, the Trudeau government’s “more money in your pocket” plan is bad policy.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

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Automotive

Michigan could be a winner as companies pull back from EVs

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From The Center Square

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Federal deregulation and tax credit cuts are reshaping the auto industry, as Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. scale back electric vehicle production and redirect billions into hybrids and traditional gas-powered cars.

Yet, the Michigan automotive industry could see increased investments from those same companies as they reallocate that funding.

While both Ford and GM previously announced ambitious targets to expand electric vehicle fleets over the next decade, they are now cutting back on electric vehicle production.

That comes in response to federal deregulation of gas-powered vehicles, tax credit cuts, and the prospect of slowing consumer demand.

In August, Ford stated it was canceling plans to build a new electric three-row SUV. Instead, it is turning its focus to hybrid vehicles, including a massive $5 billon investment into a new “affordable” hybrid truck.

GM announced similar plans earlier this month. It will be cutting back electric vehicle production at Kansas and Tennessee plants, anticipating a decline in demand once federal tax credits end Sept. 30.

This all could have a real impact on the electric vehicle industry across the nation and experts are already anticipating that.

A new forecast by Ernst & Young Global Limited now predicts a five-year delay in electric vehicles making up 50% of the new car marketshare. While previous forecasts predicted America would reach that mark by 2034, the new forecast pushed that back to 2039.

“The U.S. faces policy uncertainty, high costs, and infrastructure gaps,” said Constantin M. Gall, the company’s global aerospace defense and mobility leader.

Clean energy advocacy groups are decrying this move away from electric vehicle initiatives, largely blaming the Trump administration.

“The transition to electric vehicles now faces significant roadblocks,” said Ecology Center in an April report. “The Trump administration has rolled back key policies supporting clean transportation.”

It also pointed to a nationwide deregulation of the gas-powered vehicle industry for allowing those to remain “dominant” over electric vehicles.

“These actions prioritize fossil fuels over clean energy, threatening progress toward a sustainable transportation future,” the report stated.

While bad news for electric vehicle supporters, the Michigan automotive industry could be a winner as companies re-shift focus back to gas-powered and hybrid vehicles.

With billions of dollars previously allocated to federal pollution fines and electric vehicle costs now available for investment, GM now plans to increase production at a Detroit-area plant by 2027.

The Michigan-based company also recently announced plans to invest billions into another Michigan plant in Lake Orion Township.

For similar reasons, Ford’s CEO Jim Farley told analysts that the company anticipates monetary savings “has the potential to unlock a multibillion-dollar opportunity over the next two years.”

While Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has long been a proponent for the electric vehicle industry, she did recently emphasize her support for all Michigan-based manufacturing, no matter the type.

“We don’t care what you drive – gas, diesel, hybrid, or electric – as long as it’s made in Michigan,” she said following the GM Orion announcement. “Together, let’s keep bringing manufacturing home, growing the middle class, and making more stuff in Michigan.”

Elyse Apel is a reporter for The Center Square covering Colorado and Michigan. A graduate of Hillsdale College, Elyse’s writing has been published in a wide variety of national publications from the Washington Examiner to The American Spectator and The Daily Wire.

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Business

Deportations causing delays in US construction industry

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The Trump administration’s immigration policies are leading to worker shortages and delayed projects across the construction industry, according to a new report.

A survey conducted in July and August by the Associated Contractors of America and the National Center for Construction Education and Research found more than one in four respondents said their firms were affected by increased immigration enforcement in the past six months.

Respondents said increased immigration enforcement is making it more difficult for firms to recruit workers. Ten percent of firms reported using the H-2B visa program, which is used for recruiting nonagricultural foreign workers, to recruit salaried and hourly workers.

Congress set the cap for H-2B visa allowances at 66,000 in fiscal year 2026. The program offers temporary work for the first and second halves of the year to foreign employees.

Jordan Fischetti, an immigration policy fellow with Americans for Prosperity, said government allowances for visa programs do not meet the demand of the current workforce.

“Immigration for a long time has been centrally planned, so there’s just not a very strong appetite for letting the market do its work,” Fischetti said.

The report found 83% of firms with craft worker openings reported that positions are hard to fill or harder to fill than one year ago. Eighty-four percent of firms with openings for salaried workers also reported it was hard or harder to fill positions than one year ago.

Five percent of respondents reported their jobsites or work sites were visited by immigration agents and 10% said workers did not report or quit due to rumored immigration enforcement allegations.

Contractors in Georgia, Virginia, Alabama, Nebraska and South Carolina were more likely to be impacted by immigration enforcement, according to the report.

The report found worker shortages were the most commonly listed reason for project delays. Two-thirds of firms reported at least one project in the last six months was postponed, canceled or scaled back. The survey took into account more than 1,300 individuals across various contracting and construction firms.

Michele Waslin, assistant director of the University of Minnesota’s immigration history research center, said the construction and agricultural industries have been deeply affected by the Trump administration’s immigration policies.

“Some businesses really do have a labor shortage, and they’re unable to hire American workers, and they want to hire foreign workers and it’s not that easy to do in many cases,” Waslin said.

A separate poll commissioned by The Center Square found 85% of registered voters think it is either somewhat or very important to create legal pathways for construction workers to live and work in the United States.

The poll, conducted by RMG Research in conjunction with Neapolitan News Service, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in August and found vast agreement across partisan lines, age and race in its support for legal pathways in construction.

Fischetti said both employers and the American public have expressed interest in allowing more flexibility in the immigration system and he wants to see Congress modernize in response.

“We really need to work on providing pathways,” Fischetti said. “I don’t just mean pathways to legalization, pathways to certainty.”

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