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Not energy ‘transition’ but energy ‘addition’. Intermittent wind and sun requires backup power generation

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From Resource Works

Until battery technology is an option, there is no real energy transition

Climate campaigners steadily push for clean, renewable energy sources to replace hydrocarbons. However, international consultants Wood Mackenzie view this push as overly simplistic, arguing it does not consider the complexities of energy supply and the uses of oil and gas that extend far beyond power generation.

“Perhaps most striking is the extraordinary contribution that oil and gas have made to energy supply and what a gargantuan task it will be to build a new low-carbon system in its place.”

The latest report from “WoodMac” lists several challenges for a future of low-carbon power.

For one, U.S. demand for electrical power is set to grow at least through the rest of this decade.

“What is exciting about this new growth is that it is a manifestation of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Central to this is the explosive growth of data centres, the beating heart of the infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, digitalization, and big data. Second is a new wave of cleantech, including the manufacturing of semiconductors, batteries, and renewable energy equipment. Third is the increasing electrification of the economy.”

Offshore wind’s power output has an energy efficiency of 92% compared with oil and gas, which, in use, deliver only 25% of their original energy content. But “what may impress is how long it will take for the cumulative output of wind to exceed that of oil and gas, despite this disparity in energy efficiency.”

Closer to home, questions have been raised in Canada about climate campaigners’ arguments that the costs of solar and wind power operations have steadily decreased and are now comparatively affordable.

The small-c conservative Fraser Institute notes that the G7 countries (including Canada) have pledged to triple renewable energy sources to ensure an “affordable” energy future.

“But while direct costs for wind and solar are dropping, they remain expensive due in part to the backup energy sources required when renewables are not available.

“Wind and solar energy are intermittent, meaning they aren’t consistently available, so we need an alternative power source when there’s no sunlight or wind, given the current limited ability to store energy from solar and wind.

“So we must maintain enough energy capacity in a parallel system, typically powered by natural gas. Constructing and maintaining a secondary energy source results in higher overall energy costs because two energy systems cost more than one. Therefore, when evaluating the costs of renewables, we must consider the costs of backup energy.

“Often, when proponents claim that wind and solar sources are cheaper than fossil fuels, they ignore these costs.”

The TD Bank adds: “Despite the improvement in the cost-competitiveness of renewable and storage technologies, the growth of low-carbon electricity supply is likely to increase electricity costs.

“According to estimates by the Alberta Electric System Operator, the load-adjusted generation costs in 2035 could be 56–66% higher in net-zero-by-2035 scenarios compared to a technology trajectory based on current policies.

“For Ontario, we estimate that replacing expiring gas-generator contracts with a combination of solar, wind, storage, and small modular reactors could increase the average generation cost by around 20% in 2035 compared to what it would be if the gas contracts were renewed and the current procurement plan for new resources proceeds as planned.”

The Fraser Institute also cites a 2021 study by University of Chicago economists showing that between 1990 and 2015, U.S. states that mandated minimum renewable power sources experienced significant electricity price increases after accounting for backup infrastructure and other costs.

“Specifically, in those states, electricity prices increased by an average of 11 per cent, costing consumers an additional $30 billion annually. The study also found that electricity prices grew more expensive over time, and by the twelfth year, electricity prices were 17 per cent higher (on average).”

“Europe is another case in point. Between 2006 and 2019, solar and wind sources went from representing around 5 per cent of Germany’s electricity generation to almost 30 per cent in 2019. During that same period, German households experienced an increase in electricity prices from 19.46 cents to 30.46 cents per kilowatt hour — a rise of more than 56 per cent. This surge in prices occurred before the war in Ukraine, which led to an unprecedented price spike in 2022.”

Meanwhile, in the U.S., a study published in Energy, a peer-reviewed energy and engineering journal, found that — after accounting for backup, energy storage, and associated indirect costs — solar power costs skyrocket from US$36 per megawatt hour (MWh) to as high as US$1,548, and wind generation costs increase from US$40 to up to US$504 per MWh.

We’re firmly in favour of advancing renewable energy sources, and the sooner, the better. But the cost estimates need to be true

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Higher carbon taxes in pipeline MOU are a bad deal for taxpayers

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By Franco Terrazzano

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is criticizing the Memorandum of Understanding between the federal and Alberta governments for including higher carbon taxes.

“Hidden carbon taxes will make it harder for Canadian businesses to compete and will push Canadian entrepreneurs to shift production south of the border,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Politicians should not be forcing carbon taxes on Canadians with the hope that maybe one day we will get a major project built.

“Politicians should be scrapping all carbon taxes.”

The federal and Alberta governments released a memorandum of understanding. It includes an agreement that the industrial carbon tax “will ramp up to a minimum effective credit price of $130/tonne.”

“It means more than a six times increase in the industrial price on carbon,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said while speaking to the press today.

Carney previously said that by “changing the carbon tax … We are making the large companies pay for everybody.”

Leger poll shows 70 per cent of Canadians believe businesses pass most or some of the cost of the industrial carbon tax on to consumers. Meanwhile, just nine per cent believe businesses pay most of the cost.

“It doesn’t matter what politicians label their carbon taxes, all carbon taxes make life more expensive and don’t work,” Terrazzano said. “Carbon taxes on refineries make gas more expensive, carbon taxes on utilities make home heating more expensive and carbon taxes on fertilizer plants increase costs for farmers and that makes groceries more expensive.

“The hidden carbon tax on business is the worst of all worlds: Higher prices and fewer Canadian jobs.”

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Man overboard as HMCS Carney lists to the right

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Steven Guilbeault, Heritage Minister and Quebec lieutenant, leaves cabinet this week with his chief of staff, Ann-Clara Vaillancourt. He resigned on Thursday.

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John Ivison's avatar  Fly Straight By John Ivison

Steven Guilbeault’s resignation will help end a decade of stagnation and lost investment.

Steven Guilbeault’s resignation will come as no surprise to Mark Carney – save, perhaps, for the fact that it took so long.

The former environment minister quit on Thursday evening, after the prime minister unveiled his memorandum of understanding with Alberta premier, Danielle Smith. That deal is aimed at creating the conditions to build an oil pipeline to the West Coast and encouraging new investment in the province’s natural gas electricity generation sector. In doing so, Carney cancelled the oil and gas emissions cap and the clean electricity regulations that Guilbeault had been instrumental in constructing and imposing.

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The former environmental activist couldn’t accept the continued expansion of fossil fuel production and so walked away after six years in cabinet.

In his resignation statement, he said he strongly opposes the MOU with Alberta because it was signed without consultation with the province of British Columbia and First Nations.

He said removing the moratorium on oil tankers off the West Coast would increase the risk of accidents and suspending clean electricity regulations, which blocked new gas generation, will result in an “upwards emissions trajectory”.

In particular, he was upset about the expansion of federal tax credits to encourage enhanced oil recovery, a carbon storage technology that captures carbon dioxide from industrial emitters and injects it back underground. Guilbeault considered this a direct subsidy for oil production – a business he said he hoped the government was exiting.

In a Twitter post, I called Guilbeault “anti-Pathways” – that is, opposed to the giant carbon capture and storage development that Carney views as crucial to offsetting the building of a new pipeline.

One of Guilbeault’s defenders said he is not anti-Pathways, and that, in fact, he was part of the trifecta, along with Chrystia Freeland and Jonathan Wilkinson, who negotiated the details on the investment tax credit “that will pay 50 percent of the cost of construction to a bunch of rich oil companies”. To me, that showed Guilbeault’s (and his supporters) true colours. If he wasn’t anti-Pathways, he certainly wasn’t pro.

When he said he would back Carney’s leadership bid in January, I wrote that it was an endorsement the aspiring Liberal leader could do without.

The now-prime minister always had in his mind a plan to build, including fossil fuel production, offset by technology adoption and a stronger industrial carbon price in Alberta. Even then, he made clear he was prepared to be pragmatic in a time of crisis.

Guilbeault’s plan was to regulate the industry to death.

It was always going to end badly but, as Carney told me last winter, Guilbeault provided crucial support on the ground in Quebec and any politician’s first responsibility is to win.

Guilbeault should be respected for his deep convictions on climate change and his commitment to leaving a better world to our children.

But he should never have been allowed to dictate environmental policy in this country. He refused to view natural gas as a bridging fuel in the energy transition in a country that has reserves of a resource that will, at current production levels, last 300 years.

He made clear his lack of enthusiasm for small modular nuclear reactors and new road-building.

And he pushed an oil and gas emissions cap that he knew would hit production levels and further (if that were possible) alienate Western Canadians.

His departure – and that of Freeland – give Carney scope to pursue what he hopes is a transformative response to not only Donald Trump, but to federal policies that amounted to driving with the handbrake on. Carney has made his intent clear – to optimize Canada’s resource wealth, while attempting to minimize emissions.

Five years ago, Trudeau was nearly tarred and feathered during a visit to Calgary; Carney received two standing ovations in the same town yesterday.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith outline the terms of their Memorandum of Understanding.

For too many years under the Trudeau/Freeland duopoly the plan was to redistribute the pie. Now it is clearly about wealth creation.

In my National Post columns, I have been scathing about some of the things the Carney government has done, as is appropriate for someone whose prime directive is the public interest. The decisions to recognize a Palestinian state; apologize to Trump for the Ontario “Ronald Reagan” ad; announce a bunch of major projects that were so advanced they didn’t need to be fast-tracked; split spending into the confusing binary of “operating” or “capital”; and visit the United Arab Emirates on a trade mission in the midst of a genocide in Sudan that the Emiratis had helped to fund were all, to me, missteps.

But, so far, Carney has got the big things right. The budget and this MOU are auspicious moves aimed at ending a decade of stagnation and lost investment.

There is a new mood of anticipation in the country, summed up in the S&P/TSX index, which hit record highs this week on the back of energy and mining stocks. Canadian pension funds are taking another look at the domestic market, intrigued by the prospect of investing in the potential privatization of airports, for example.

Canada is feeling better. There has been a shift in the mindset from saying no to everything to being open to removing barriers that stop the private sector from investing.

Success and prosperity are not guaranteed. But stagnation need not be either.

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