From the Canadian Energy Centre

Billions in government revenue and thousands of jobs across provinces

Announced in 2006, the Northern Gateway project would have built twin pipelines between Bruderheim, Alta. and a marine terminal at Kitimat, B.C.

One pipeline would export 525,000 barrels per day of heavy oil from Alberta to tidewater markets. The other would import 193,000 barrels per day of condensate to Alberta to dilute heavy oil for pipeline transportation.

The project would have generated significant economic benefits across Canada.

The following projections are drawn from the report Public Interest Benefits of the Northern Gateway Project (Wright Mansell Research Ltd., July 2012), which was submitted as reply evidence during the regulatory process.

Financial figures have been adjusted to 2025 dollars using the Bank of Canada’s Inflation Calculator, with $1.00 in 2012 equivalent to $1.34 in 2025.

Total Government Revenue by Region

Between 2019 and 2048, a period encompassing both construction and operations, the Northern Gateway project was projected to generate the following total government revenues by region (direct, indirect and induced):

British Columbia

• Provincial government revenue: $11.5 billion
• Federal government revenue: $8.9 billion
• Total: $20.4 billion

Alberta

• Provincial government revenue: $49.4 billion
• Federal government revenue: $41.5 billion
• Total: $90.9 billion

Ontario

• Provincial government revenue: $1.7 billion
• Federal government revenue: $2.7 billion
• Total: $4.4 billion

Quebec

• Provincial government revenue: $746 million
• Federal government revenue: $541 million
• Total: $1.29 billion

Saskatchewan

• Provincial government revenue: $6.9 billion
• Federal government revenue: $4.4 billion
• Total: $11.3 billion

Other

• Provincial government revenue: $1.9 billion
• Federal government revenue: $1.4 billion
• Total: $3.3 billion

Canada

• Provincial government revenue: $72.1 billion
• Federal government revenue: $59.4 billion
• Total: $131.7 billion

Annual Government Revenue by Region

Over the period 2019 and 2048, the Northern Gateway project was projected to generate the following annual government revenues by region (direct, indirect and induced):

British Columbia

• Provincial government revenue: $340 million
• Federal government revenue: $261 million
• Total: $601 million per year

Alberta

• Provincial government revenue: $1.5 billion
• Federal government revenue: $1.2 billion
• Total: $2.7 billion per year

Ontario

• Provincial government revenue: $51 million
• Federal government revenue: $79 million
• Total: $130 million per year

Quebec

• Provincial government revenue: $21 million
• Federal government revenue: $16 million
• Total: $37 million per year

Saskatchewan

• Provincial government revenue: $204 million
• Federal government revenue: $129 million
• Total: $333 million per year

Other

• Provincial government revenue: $58 million
• Federal government revenue: $40 million
• Total: $98 million per year

Canada

• Provincial government revenue: $2.1 billion
• Federal government revenue: $1.7 billion
• Total: $3.8 billion per year

Employment by Region

Over the period 2019 to 2048, the Northern Gateway Pipeline was projected to generate the following direct, indirect and induced full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs by region:

British Columbia

• Annual average:  7,736
• Total over the period: 224,344

Alberta

• Annual average:  11,798
• Total over the period: 342,142

Ontario

• Annual average:  3,061
• Total over the period: 88,769

Quebec

• Annual average:  1,003
• Total over the period: 29,087

Saskatchewan

• Annual average:  2,127
• Total over the period: 61,683

Other

• Annual average:  953
• Total over the period: 27,637

Canada

• Annual average:  26,678
• Total over the period: 773,662

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

The new government under Prime Minister Mark Carney recently delivered its throne speech, which set out the government’s priorities for the coming term. Unfortunately, on energy policy, Albertans are still waiting for clarity.

Prime Minister Carney’s position on energy policy has been confusing, to say the least. On the campaign trail, he promised to keep Trudeau’s arbitrary emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, and Bill C-69 (which opponents call the “no more pipelines act”). Then, two weeks ago, he said his government will “change things at the federal level that need to be changed in order for projects to move forward,” adding he may eventually scrap both the emissions cap and Bill C-69.

His recent cabinet appointments further muddied his government’s position. On one hand, he appointed Tim Hodgson as the new minister of Energy and Natural Resources. Hodgson has called energy “Canada’s superpower” and promised to support oil and pipelines, and fix the mistrust that’s been built up over the past decade between Alberta and Ottawa. His appointment gave hope to some that Carney may have a new approach to revitalize Canada’s oil and gas sector.

On the other hand, he appointed Julie Dabrusin as the new minister of Environment and Climate Change. Dabrusin was the parliamentary secretary to the two previous environment ministers (Jonathan Wilkinson and Steven Guilbeault) who opposed several pipeline developments and were instrumental in introducing the oil and gas emissions cap, among other measures designed to restrict traditional energy development.

To confuse matters further, Guilbeault, who remains in Carney’s cabinet albeit in a diminished role, dismissed the need for additional pipeline infrastructure less than 48 hours after Carney expressed conditional support for new pipelines.

The throne speech was an opportunity to finally provide clarity to Canadians—and specifically Albertans—about the future of Canada’s energy industry. During her first meeting with Prime Minister Carney, Premier Danielle Smith outlined Alberta’s demands, which include scrapping the emissions cap, Bill C-69 and Bill C-48, which bans most oil tankers loading or unloading anywhere on British Columbia’s north coast (Smith also wants Ottawa to support an oil pipeline to B.C.’s coast). But again, the throne speech provided no clarity on any of these items. Instead, it contained vague platitudes including promises to “identify and catalyse projects of national significance” and “enable Canada to become the world’s leading energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy.”

Until the Carney government provides a clear plan to address the roadblocks facing Canada’s energy industry, private investment will remain on the sidelines, or worse, flow to other countries. Put simply, time is up. Albertans—and Canadians—need clarity. No more flip flopping and no more platitudes.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute