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Net Zero Part 4 – IPCC Experts Say Doing Nothing Would Be Less Harmful

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Do you ever feel good when someone won’t tell you how much something costs – something you have to pay for?

No? Me neither.

But, when it comes to the Canadian government’s climate change agenda, and in particular the “Net Zero by 2050” strategy, that is where we are.

It is being forced on Canadians, who will end up paying the bill, but we are not being told what the price is today, or what the price will be tomorrow.

I will continue to dig to find out more. But in the meantime, let me share what an expert on the climate file says about what “doing nothing” would cost.

Yes, doing nothing.

But don’t take my word for it.

President Obama was (and remains) quite outspoken as an alarmist on the issue of climate change, talking often about the impending crisis.

But the former Democratic President’s senior Department of Energy official, Stephen Koonin, has just come out with a most sensible and distinctly non-alarmist perspective. His recently published book, Unsettled, suggests the alarmist climate change narrative is unfounded.

Stephen Koonin served as Undersecretary of Energy in former U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration. A PhD Physicist, he is a smart guy.

Referencing materials from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – an organization that is widely viewed by governments and media as the single most important source for information on climate change – Koonin demonstrates that the science of climate change is anything but settled, and that we are not in, nor should we anticipate, a crisis.

In fact, despite decades of apocalyptic warnings there is in fact remarkably little knowledge of what might happen. Over the last 5 decades of apocalyptic warning, life on earth has dramatically improved as our management of countless environmental challenges has improved.

What the evidence really shows is that as the global economy improves, our ability to deal with whatever mother nature throws at us improves. On that point, Koonin draws attention to what the IPCC experts say about the possible economic impacts of possible climate change-induced temperature changes.

Koonin notes that, according to the IPCC, a temperature increase of 3 degrees centigrade by 2100 – which some scientists say might happen – might create some negative environmental effects, which in turn would cause an estimated 3% hit to the economy in 2100.

But even as it makes these claims, the IPCC further predicts that the economy, in 2100, will be several times the size of the economy today (unless, of course, we interfere with it as the Net Zero by 2050 crowd wants us to do).  In other words, a strategy of doing nothing may or may not mean a temperature increase, the effects of which if bad, are expected to represent a small economic hit to the economy, but that economy will be much, much larger.

In Koonin’s words, this “translates to a decrease in the annual growth rate by an average of 3 percent divided by 80, or about 0.04 percent per year. The IPCC scenarios…assume an average global annual growth rate of about 2 percent through 2100; the climate impact would then be a 0.04 percent decrease in that 2 percent growth rate, for a resulting growth rate of 1.96 percent. In other words, the U.N. report says that the economic impact of human-induced climate change is negligible, at most a bump in the road.”

So this doesn’t sound like a crisis to me. It sounds like a very modest reduction in extraordinary economic growth. So from extraordinary economic growth to slightly less extraordinary economic growth.

Why do I draw attention to this?

Because Canada is pursuing a Net Zero by 2050 target with a whole bunch of policies that will kill economic growth.

The IPCC predicts significant global economic growth without all the things Trudeau and other Net Zero by 2050 advocates are pursuing – massive carbon taxes, additional carbon taxes called clean fuel standards (CFS), building code changes that will make a new home unaffordable, huge subsidies for pet projects, etc. In other words, the IPCC predicts growth without crazy and wasteful spending of taxpayer dollars that will hurt citizens.

So why are we allowing Trudeau and co to pursue these things?

We don’t know the full costs of Net Zero by 2050, but every signal we have is that it is absurdly expensive. AND (thank you Stephen Koonin for making this explicitly clear) the International Panel on Climate Change says ignoring the Net Zero by 2050 target and doing nothing will mean a much bigger economy.

Prime Minister Trudeau and the activists won’t tell you that.

Nor will they acknowledge what the IPCC actually says.

Let’s all applaud Stephen Koonin for trying to do so.

Green activists are driving a radical agenda screaming at us that the science is settled. As courageous scientists like Stephen Koonin note, science is never settled and to say it is settled is irresponsible. The activists say we have to radically change our economy, but don’t tell us how much that will cost – but the IPCC tells us doing absolutely nothing would result in only slightly less economic growth than we would otherwise have.

Governments are spending massive sums of your money on Net Zero by 2050.

Corporate interests commit to this radical agenda and hide behind rhetoric of doing the right thing, while they also seek out government subsidies (which taxpayers will pay for) to meet their absurd Net Zero by 2050 commitments.

All of us, as consumers, will foot the bill.

And none of it needs to happen.

 

Click here for more articles from Dan McTeague of Canadians for Affordable energy

Dan McTeague | President, Canadians for Affordable Energy

 

An 18 year veteran of the House of Commons, Dan is widely known in both official languages for his tireless work on energy pricing and saving Canadians money through accurate price forecasts. His Parliamentary initiatives, aimed at helping Canadians cope with affordable energy costs, led to providing Canadians heating fuel rebates on at least two occasions.

Widely sought for his extensive work and knowledge in energy pricing, Dan continues to provide valuable insights to North American media and policy makers. He brings three decades of experience and proven efforts on behalf of consumers in both the private and public spheres. Dan is committed to improving energy affordability for Canadians and promoting the benefits we all share in having a strong and robust energy sector.

An 18 year veteran of the House of Commons, Dan is widely known in both official languages for his tireless work on energy pricing and saving Canadians money through accurate price forecasts. His Parliamentary initiatives, aimed at helping Canadians cope with affordable energy costs, led to providing Canadians heating fuel rebates on at least two occasions. Widely sought for his extensive work and knowledge in energy pricing, Dan continues to provide valuable insights to North American media and policy makers. He brings three decades of experience and proven efforts on behalf of consumers in both the private and public spheres. Dan is committed to improving energy affordability for Canadians and promoting the benefits we all share in having a strong and robust energy sector.

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Alberta

Carney forces Alberta to pay a steep price for the West Coast Pipeline MOU

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From the Fraser Institute

By Kenneth P. Green

The stiffer carbon tax will make Alberta’s oil sector more expensive and thus less competitive at a time when many analysts expect a surge in oil production. The costs of mandated carbon capture will similarly increase costs in the oilsands and make the province less cost competitive.

As we enter the final days of 2025, a “deal” has been struck between Carney government and the Alberta government over the province’s ability to produce and interprovincially transport its massive oil reserves (the world’s 4th-largest). The agreement is a step forward and likely a net positive for Alberta and its citizens. However, it’s not a second- or even third-best option, but rather a fourth-best option.

The agreement is deeply rooted in the development of a particular technology—the Pathways carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) project, in exchange for relief from the counterproductive regulations and rules put in place by the Trudeau government. That relief, however, is attached to a requirement that Alberta commit to significant spending and support for Ottawa’s activist industrial policies. Also, on the critical issue of a new pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s coast, there are commitments but nothing approaching a guarantee.

Specifically, the agreement—or Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—between the two parties gives Alberta exemptions from certain federal environmental laws and offers the prospect of a potential pathway to a new oil pipeline to the B.C. coast. The federal cap on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the oil and gas sector will not be instituted; Alberta will be exempt from the federal “Clean Electricity Regulations”; a path to a million-barrel-per day pipeline to the BC coast for export to Asia will be facilitated and established as a priority of both governments, and the B.C. tanker ban may be adjusted to allow for limited oil transportation. Alberta’s energy sector will also likely gain some relief from the “greenwashing” speech controls emplaced by the Trudeau government.

In exchange, Alberta has agreed to implement a stricter (higher) industrial carbon-pricing regime; contribute to new infrastructure for electricity transmission to both B.C. and Saskatchewan; support through tax measures the building of a massive “sovereign” data centre; significantly increase collaboration and profit-sharing with Alberta’s Indigenous peoples; and support the massive multibillion-dollar Pathways project. Underpinning the entire MOU is an explicit agreement by Alberta with the federal government’s “net-zero 2050” GHG emissions agenda.

The MOU is probably good for Alberta and Canada’s oil industry. However, Alberta’s oil sector will be required to go to significantly greater—and much more expensive—lengths than it has in the past to meet the MOU’s conditions so Ottawa supports a west coast pipeline.

The stiffer carbon tax will make Alberta’s oil sector more expensive and thus less competitive at a time when many analysts expect a surge in oil production. The costs of mandated carbon capture will similarly increase costs in the oilsands and make the province less cost competitive. There’s additional complexity with respect to carbon capture since it’s very feasibility at the scale and time-frame stipulated in the MOU is questionable, as the historical experience with carbon capture, utilization and storage for storing GHG gases sustainably has not been promising.

These additional costs and requirements are why the agreement is the not the best possible solution. The ideal would have been for the federal government to genuinely review existing laws and regulations on a cost-benefit basis to help achieve its goal to become an “energy superpower.” If that had been done, the government would have eliminated a host of Trudeau-era regulations and laws, or at least massively overhauled them.

Instead, the Carney government, and now with the Alberta government, has chosen workarounds and special exemptions to the laws and regulations that still apply to everyone else.

Again, it’s very likely the MOU will benefit Alberta and the rest of the country economically. It’s no panacea, however, and will leave Alberta’s oil sector (and Alberta energy consumers) on the hook to pay more for the right to move its export products across Canada to reach other non-U.S. markets. It also forces Alberta to align itself with Ottawa’s activist industrial policy—picking winning and losing technologies in the oil-production marketplace, and cementing them in place for decades. A very mixed bag indeed.

Kenneth P. Green

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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Alberta

Alberta and Ottawa ink landmark energy agreement

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The Governments of Canada and Alberta have signed a new agreement to more than double oil exports to Asian markets, address investment uncertainty and reduce emissions.

This new energy partnership is a critical step towards achieving Alberta’s and Canada’s shared goal of turning our country into a world energy superpower and building a stronger and more vibrant economy.

The new energy agreement includes:

  • A declaration by the federal government that an Indigenous co-owned Alberta bitumen pipeline to Asian markets is a project of national interest.
  • Agreement that the parties will work together to facilitate the application, approval and construction of a privately financed and constructed 1 million+ barrel per day, Indigenous co-owned bitumen pipeline to Asian markets through a strategic deep-water port.
  • Commitment by the federal government that it will not be implementing the federal oil and gas emissions cap.
  • An immediate suspension of the federal Clean Electricity Regulations, and agreement the parties will work towards the construction of thousands of megawatts of AI computing power, with a large portion dedicated to sovereign computing for Canada and its allies.
  • Commitment by both governments to partner with the Pathways companies to finance and construct the world’s largest carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) project for the purpose of making Alberta bitumen amongst the lowest emission intensity barrel of heavy oil in the world.
  • In order to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the Alberta and federal governments will design and commit to globally competitive, long-term carbon pricing and sector-specific stringency factors by Apr. 1, 2026, for large Alberta emitters in both the oil and gas and electricity sectors through Alberta’s TIER system.
  • Entering into a methane equivalency agreement by Apr. 1, 2026, with a 2035 target date and a 75 per cent reduction target relative to 2014 methane emissions levels.
  • Agreement to immediately consult and work with Indigenous partners and the Government of British Columbia to ensure their peoples enjoy substantial economic and financial benefit from the pipeline.
  • Significantly decrease regulatory uncertainty through a variety of changes to various legislation, regulation and policy.

The new agreement also demonstrates that both Alberta and Canada are focused on ways to increase the production and export of Alberta oil and gas, maximize growth in AI datacentre and related industries in Alberta, assist Canada in achieving its national security goals, create hundreds of thousands of new jobs, all while reducing the emissions intensity of Canadian oil, gas and electricity through the development and implementation of CCUS, nuclear and other emissions reducing technologies.

“This is Alberta’s moment of opportunity to take the first steps toward being a global energy superpower and show the nation that resource development and sustainability can coexist. There is much hard work ahead of us, but today is a new starting point for nation building as we increase our energy production for the benefit of millions and forge a new relationship between Alberta and the federal government.”

Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta

Oil pipeline

An Indigenous co-owned bitumen pipeline to Asian markets will ensure the province and country are no longer dependent on just one customer to buy their most valuable resource. It is agreed this new pipeline would be in addition to the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline for an additional 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day destined for Asian markets.

This agreement also allows for needed adjustments to the tanker ban when the new pipeline to Asia is approved by the major projects office, as well as amendments that ensure Alberta’s energy companies can advertise their environmental leadership and efforts throughout the world without fear of penalty.

“This pipeline is an excellent opportunity to demonstrate partnership and progress. My hope is that it will create lasting economic benefits for First Nations and strengthen the relationships that matter most — government-to-government and community-to-community. Indigenous equity ownership is shaping Canada’s economy, and when our voices help guide every decision, we build trust and a future that will support generations to come.”

George Arcand Jr, Chief, Alexander First Nation

Oil and gas emissions cap

The federal government has also committed to not implementing the oil and gas emissions cap, allowing for a massive increase in oil production and private sector jobs and moving Alberta towards its goal of reaching six million barrels per day of oil production by 2030 and eight million barrels per day by 2035.

“The Energy Accord signed today by Prime Minister Carney and Premier Smith sends an important signal that Canada’s oil and gas development is integral to the economy and is open for business. This agreement shows that Canada is taking action to address regulations and policy that are impacting competitiveness and investment.”

Tristan Goodman, president and CEO, The Explorers and Producers Association of Canada

“The Business Council of Alberta is delighted to see the removal of the oil and gas emissions cap, which was a cap on production and prosperity in Canada. Now, without the cap, Canada truly can grow energy production, export globally, and generate the investments and jobs that will help deliver a better quality of life for all Canadians.”

Adam Legge, president, Business Council of Alberta

Clean Electricity Regulations

The agreement also includes the immediate suspension of the Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta, which will stabilize Alberta’s power grid and enable massive investments in AI data centres in the province. Instead, Alberta will work with the federal government and industry on a new industrial carbon pricing agreement, to be administered through Alberta’s TIER program.

Pathways and emissions reduction

Both governments are committed to working together with the Pathways companies to advance the completion of the world’s largest CCUS infrastructure project.

This will make Alberta a world leader in the development and implementation of emissions reduction infrastructure – particularly in carbon capture utilization and storage. Alberta bitumen will be the cleanest heavy oil on the planet displacing heavier emitting oil from Russia, Venezuela and Iran, and bringing better environmental and geopolitical outcomes.

“The Pathways Alliance appreciates the leadership of both Prime Minister Carney and Premier Smith in entering this important Memorandum of Understanding which supports the growth of an industry that is critical to Canada’s economy. We look forward to working on the details with both the federal and Alberta governments in the coming months with our shared goal of Canada being an energy superpower.”

Kendall Dilling, president, Pathways Alliance
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