Business
Net Zero by 2050: There is no realistic path to affordable and reliable electricity
By Dave Morton of the Canadian Energy Reliability Council.
Maintaining energy diversity is crucial to a truly sustainable future
Canada is on an ambitious path to “decarbonize” its economy by 2050 to deliver on its political commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although policy varies across provinces and federally, a default policy of electrification has emerged, and the electricity industry, which in Canada is largely owned by our provincial governments, appears to be on board.
In a November 2023 submission to the federal government, Electricity Canada, an association of major electric generators and suppliers in Canada, stated: “Every credible path to Net Zero by 2050 relies on electrification of other sectors.” In a single generation, then, will clean electricity become the dominant source of energy in Canada? If so, this puts all our energy eggs in one basket. Lost in the debate seem to be considerations of energy diversity and its role in energy system reliability.
What does an electrification strategy mean for Canada? Currently, for every 100 units of energy we consume in Canada, over 40 come to us as liquid fuels like gasoline and diesel, almost 40 as gaseous fuels like natural gas and propane, and a little less than 20 in the form of electrons produced by those fuels as well as by water, uranium, wind, solar and biomass. In British Columbia, for example, the gas system delivered approximately double the energy of the electricity system.
How much electricity will we need? According to a recent Fraser Institute report, a decarbonized electricity grid by 2050 requires a doubling of electricity. This means adding the equivalent of 134 new large hydro projects like BC’s Site C, 18 nuclear facilities like Ontario’s Bruce Power Plant, or installing almost 75,000 large wind turbines on over one million hectares of land, an area nearly 14.5 times the size of the municipality of Calgary.
Is it feasible to achieve a fully decarbonized electricity grid in the next 25 years that will supply much of our energy requirements? There is a real risk of skilled labour and supply chain shortages that may be impossible to overcome, especially as many other countries are also racing towards net-zero by 2050. Even now, shortages of transformers and copper wire are impacting capital projects. The Fraser Institute report looks at the construction challenges and concludes that doing so “is likely impossible within the 2050 timeframe”.
How we get there matters a lot to our energy reliability along the way. As we put more eggs in the basket, our reliability risk increases. Pursuing electrification while not continuing to invest in our existing fossil fuel-based infrastructure risks leaving our homes and industries short of basic energy needs if we miss our electrification targets.
The IEA 2023 Roadmap to Net Zero estimates that technologies not yet available on the market will be needed to deliver 35 percent of emissions reductions needed for net zero in 2050. It comes then as no surprise that many of the technologies needed to grow a green electric grid are not fully mature. While wind and solar, increasingly the new generation source of choice in many jurisdictions, serve as a relatively inexpensive source of electricity and play a key role in meeting expanded demand for electricity, they introduce significant challenges to grid stability and reliability that remain largely unresolved. As most people know, they only produce electricity when the wind blows and the sun shines, thereby requiring a firm back-up source of electricity generation.
Given the unpopularity of fossil fuel generation, the difficulty of building hydro and the reluctance to adopt nuclear in much of Canada, there is little in the way of firm electricity available to provide that backup. Large “utility scale” batteries may help mitigate intermittent electricity production in the short term, but these facilities too are immature. Furthermore, wind, solar and batteries, because of the way they connect to the grid don’t contribute to grid reliability in the same way the previous generation of electric generation does.
Other zero-emitting electricity generation technologies are in various stages of development – for example, Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) fitted to GHG emitting generation facilities can allow gas or even coal to generate firm electricity and along with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) can provide a firm and flexible source of electricity.
What if everything can’t be electrified? In June 2024, a report commissioned by the federal government concluded that the share of overall energy supplied by electricity will need to roughly triple by 2050, increasing from the current 17 percent to between 40 and 70 percent. In this analysis, then, even a tripling of existing electricity generation, will at best only meet 70 percent of our energy needs by 2050.
Therefore, to ensure the continued supply of reliable energy, non-electrification pathways to net zero are also required. CCUS and SMR technologies currently being developed for producing electricity could potentially be used to provide thermal energy for industrial processes and even building heat; biofuels to replace gasoline, diesel and natural gas; and hydrogen to augment natural gas, along with GHG offsets and various emission trading schemes are similarly
While many of these technologies can and currently do contribute to GHG emission reductions, uncertainties remain relating to their scalability, cost and public acceptance. These uncertainties in all sectors of our energy system leaves us with the question: Is there any credible pathway to reliable net-zero energy by 2050?
Electricity Canada states: “Ensuring reliability, affordability, and sustainability is a balancing act … the energy transition is in large part policy-driven; thus, current policy preferences are uniquely impactful on the way utilities can manage the energy trilemma. The energy trilemma is often referred to colloquially as a three-legged stool, with GHG reductions only one of those legs. But the other two, reliability and affordability, are key to the success of the transition.
Policymakers should urgently consider whether any pathway exists to deliver reliable net-zero energy by 2050. If not, letting the pace of the transition be dictated by only one of those legs guarantees, at best, a wobbly stool. Matching the pace of GHG reductions with achievable measures to maintain energy diversity and reliability at prices that are affordable will be critical to setting us on a truly sustainable pathway to net zero, even if it isn’t achieved by 2050.
Dave Morton, former Chair and CEO of the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC), is with the Canadian Energy Reliability Council.
Business
Taxing food is like slapping a surcharge on hunger. It needs to end
This article supplied by Troy Media.
Cutting the food tax is one clear way to ease the cost-of-living crisis for Canadians
About a year ago, Canada experimented with something rare in federal policymaking: a temporary GST holiday on prepared foods.
It was short-lived and poorly communicated, yet Canadians noticed it immediately. One of the most unavoidable expenses in daily life—food—became marginally less costly.
Families felt a modest but genuine reprieve. Restaurants saw a bump in customer traffic. For a brief moment, Canadians experienced what it feels like when government steps back from taxing something as basic as eating.
Then the tax returned with opportunistic pricing, restoring a policy that quietly but reliably makes the cost of living more expensive for everyone.
In many ways, the temporary GST cut was worse than doing nothing. It opened the door for industry to adjust prices upward while consumers were distracted by the tax relief. That dynamic helped push our food inflation rate from minus 0.6 per cent in January to almost four per cent later in the year. By tinkering with taxes rather than addressing the structural flaws in the system, policymakers unintentionally fuelled volatility. Instead of experimenting with temporary fixes, it is time to confront the obvious: Canada should stop taxing food altogether.
Start with grocery stores. Many Canadians believe food is not taxed at retail, but that assumption is wrong. While “basic groceries” are zero-rated, a vast range of everyday food products are taxed, and Canadians now pay over a billion dollars a year in GST/HST on food purchased in grocery stores.
That amount is rising steadily, not because Canadians are buying more treats, but because shrinkflation is quietly pulling more products into taxable categories. A box of granola bars with six bars is tax-exempt, but when manufacturers quietly reduce the box to five bars, it becomes taxable. The product hasn’t changed. The nutritional profile hasn’t changed. Only the packaging has changed, yet the tax flips on.
This pattern now permeates the grocery aisle. A 650-gram bag of chips shrinks to 580 grams and becomes taxable. Muffins once sold in six-packs are reformatted into three-packs or individually wrapped portions, instantly becoming taxable single-serve items. Yogurt, traditionally sold in large tax-exempt tubs, increasingly appears in smaller 100-gram units that meet the definition of taxable snacks. Crackers, cookies, trail mixes and cereals have all seen slight weight reductions that push them past GST thresholds created decades ago. Inflation raises food prices; Canada’s outdated tax code amplifies those increases.
At the same time, grocery inflation remains elevated. Prices are rising at 3.4 per cent, nearly double the overall inflation rate. At a moment when food costs are climbing faster than almost everything else, continuing to tax food—whether on the shelf or in restaurants—makes even less economic sense.
The inconsistencies extend further. A steak purchased at the grocery store carries no tax, yet a breakfast wrap made from virtually the same inputs is taxed at five per cent GST plus applicable HST. The nutritional function is not different. The economic function is not different. But the tax treatment is entirely arbitrary, rooted in outdated distinctions that no longer reflect how Canadians live or work.
Lower-income households disproportionately bear the cost. They spend 6.2 per cent of their income eating outside the home, compared with 3.4 per cent for the highest-income households. When government taxes prepared food, it effectively imposes a higher burden on those often juggling two or three jobs with limited time to cook.
But this is not only about the poorest households. Every Canadian pays more because the tax embeds itself in the price of convenience, time and the realities of modern living.
And there is an overlooked economic dimension: restaurants are one of the most effective tools we have for stimulating community-level economic activity. When people dine out, they don’t just buy food. They participate in the economy. They support jobs for young and lower-income workers. They activate foot traffic in commercial areas. They drive spending in adjacent sectors such as transportation, retail, entertainment and tourism.
A healthy restaurant sector is a signal of economic confidence; it is often the first place consumers re-engage when they feel financially secure. Taxing prepared food, therefore, is not simply a tax on convenience—it is a tax on economic participation.
Restaurants Canada has been calling for the permanent removal of GST/HST on all food, and they are right. Eliminating the tax would generate $5.4 billion in consumer savings annually, create more than 64,000 foodservice jobs, add over 15,000 jobs in related sectors and support the opening of more than 2,600 new restaurants across the country. No other affordability measure available to the federal government delivers this combination of economic stimulus and direct relief.
And Canadians overwhelmingly agree. Eighty-four per cent believe food should not be taxed, regardless of where it is purchased. In a polarized political climate, a consensus of that magnitude is rare.
Ending the GST/HST on all food will not solve every affordability issue but it is one of the simplest, fairest and most effective measures the federal government can take immediately.
Food is food. The tax system should finally accept that.
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.
Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.
Business
Deadlocked Jury Zeroes In on Alleged US$40 Million PPE Fraud in Linda Sun PRC Influence Case
A jury of New Yorkers will return to court Monday, heading into their second week of deliberations in a landmark foreign-agent and corruption trial that reaches into two governors’ offices, struggling to decide whether former state official Linda Sun secretly served Beijing’s interests while she and her husband built a small business and luxury-property empire cashing in on pandemic-era contracts as other Americans were locked down.
On Thursday — the fourth day of deliberations — the jury sent federal Judge Brian Cogan a blunt note saying they were deadlocked on the sprawling case, in which the federal government has asked jurors to accept its account of a complex web of family and Chinese-community financial transactions through which Sun and her husband allegedly secured many millions of dollars in Chinese business deals channeled through “United Front” proxies aligned with Beijing.
The defense, by contrast, argues that Sun and her husband were simply successful through legitimate, culturally familiar transactions, not any covert scheme directed by a foreign state.
“We deeply feel that no progress can be made to change any jurors’ judgment on all counts,” the panel wrote Thursday. “There are fundamental differences on the evidence and the interpretation of the law. We cannot come to a unanimous decision.”
Cogan reportedly responded with a standard “Allen charge” — an instruction often used in deadlock situations, urging jurors to keep an open mind and continue deliberating. Because a juror had to be replaced due to travel commitments, the reconstituted panel will need to restart deliberations from square one on Monday.
According to a message the U.S. Justice Department sent to The Bureau on Wednesday, the panel had already asked for transcripts from four witnesses — Sean Carroll, Mary Beth Hefner, Karen Gallacchi and Jenny Low.
Those requests underline just how dense the case is — and how much money was at stake in the pandemic-era PPE deals at the heart of several key counts. Sun and her husband, businessman Chris Hu, face 19 counts in total, including Sun acting as an unregistered foreign agent for the People’s Republic of China; visa-fraud and alien-smuggling charges tied to a 2019 Henan provincial delegation; a multimillion-dollar pandemic PPE kickback scheme; bank-fraud and identity-misuse allegations; and multiple money-laundering and tax-evasion counts.
Carroll and Hefner’s testimony is central to the government’s key procurement-corruption allegation. Prosecutors say Sun used her influence to help steer more than US$40 million in PPE contracts to companies tied to her husband in China, with an expected profit of roughly US$8 million — money they allege was partly kicked back to Sun and Hu and funneled through accounts opened in Sun’s mother’s name and via friends and relatives.
Prosecutors say the clearest money trail in the Sun case runs through New York’s COVID PPE scramble and a pair of Jiangsu-linked emails.
“What was Linda Sun’s reward for taking official action to steer these contracts through the procurement process? Millions of dollars in kickbacks or bribes. It was money that she knew would be coming her way if she pushed these contracts through,” prosecutor Alexander Solomon told jurors in closing.
He argued that in March 2020, as the pandemic hit, a Jiangsu provincial official in Albany emailed state staff, including Sun, with information on four Chinese PPE and medical suppliers — and that the next day Sun forwarded herself a second email that copied the language about two of those vendors but added a new line claiming that “High Hope comes highly recommended by the Jiangsu Department of Commerce.”
A New York State IT specialist testified that this exact phrase appears only once in the state’s entire email system, in Sun’s self-forwarded message. Prosecutors urged jurors to see it as a fabricated email.
They suggest it is one of a number of frauds and forgeries, including claims that Sun repeatedly faked Governor Kathy Hochul’s signature on invitation letters used to bring Chinese provincial officials into the United States as part of plans to build a large education complex in New York.
On the PPE dealings, prosecutors say that during a period when Sun still had broad latitude to vet vendors, she sent procurement official Sean Carroll a proposal for High Hope to supply five million masks.
Prosecutors say she did not disclose that High Hope was tied to family associate Henry Hua or that she had a financial interest in the deal, but did repeat language that the company “came recommended” by Jiangsu authorities — phrasing Carroll testified he understood as an official validation from the Chinese side.
Prosecutors then linked the High Hope contracts that moved through Carroll’s office to alleged downstream cash flows laid out in a Chris Hu spreadsheet: PPE contract money Hu recorded as owed by Jay Chen, marked as wired into an account called “Golden” and then on to “HC Paradise,” the vehicle Hu allegedly used to pay for a Hawaii property.
In the government’s telling, that is how a doctored Jiangsu government “recommendation” for High Hope ultimately turned into New York taxpayer funds helping to buy a Hawaiian condo.
As The Bureau has reported in detail, prosecutor Alexander Solomon used his closing argument to give jurors one of the clearest open-court narratives yet of how the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front allegedly seeks to shape Western politics through diaspora networks — and to argue that Sun sat at the center of such a network in Albany.
Solomon walked the panel through a cast that ran from Sun’s family and business partners in Queens to United Front–linked association bosses in New York, provincial officials in Henan and Guangdong, and senior staff at China’s New York consulate. In his account, Sun — officially feted in Beijing as an “eminent young overseas Chinese” after a 2017 political tour — became a “trusted insider” who quietly repurposed New York State letterhead, access and messaging to serve Beijing’s priorities on Taiwan, Uyghurs and trade, while keeping that relationship hidden from her own colleagues.
Among the most striking elements of the government’s case, as The Bureau reported from Solomon’s summation, were that Sun allegedly forged Hochul’s signature on multiple invitation letters that Chinese officials then used to secure U.S. visas for provincial delegations — promising meetings in Albany that, Solomon said, no one in state government had actually approved — as part of a broader push by Henan Province to anchor a major education complex in the United States.
He then tied that influence narrative to money: millions in lobster-export deals for Chris Hu, allegedly greased by Chinese officials and New York-based United Front intermediaries; coded “apple” cash drop-offs funneled through third-party accounts; and the pandemic PPE contracts.
In Solomon’s formulation, all of that adds up to clandestine agency for Beijing.
He told jurors that while Sun was boasting to Chinese consulate officials that she could treat Hochul “like her puppet,” she was acting “like an agent,” treating PRC officials as her “real bosses,” and seeking and receiving benefits. Sun kept doing so, Solomon said, even after an FBI agent warned her about the Foreign Agents Registration Act and the risks of working too closely with the consulate.
Defense lawyers for Sun and Hu, in their own summations, urged the jury to reject that picture of a couple monetizing their access to senior American politicians in order to enrich themselves through clandestine business dealings facilitated by community leaders secretly working for Beijing’s United Front units. According to the Global Investigations Review summary and other accounts, they argued that prosecutors have overreached by criminalizing ordinary diaspora politics, networking and pandemic procurement.
On the defense view, much of what the government calls “direction and control” is better understood as routine back-and-forth involving a diaspora liaison in the governor’s office and community or trade groups with ties to China. None of the government’s evidence, they argue, amounts to an agreement to operate under the “direction or control” of a foreign principal — the core FARA requirement.
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