No longer able to deny harms, they resort to a new defense: the fraudulent claim that COVID shots “saved millions of lives.” This talking point is designed to override evidence and silence accountability. But it collapses under scrutiny. A new peer-reviewed paper, A Step-by-Step Evaluation of the Claim that COVID-19 Vaccines Saved Millions of Lives, shows in detail why this claim is scientifically baseless and manufactured through deception:

Step 1 — The Modeling Scam

The heart of the “millions saved” claim lies in computer models, not observed evidence. The Senate hearing even cited a Commonwealth Fund blog post (Dec 2022) claiming 3.2 million U.S. deaths averted. But that wasn’t the only one.

The paper reviews several highly publicized studies:

• Watson et al. (2022, Lancet Infectious Diseases): projected 14–20 million lives saved worldwide in the first year — based on assumptions of high infection-blocking and mortality risk without vaccination.
• Meslé et al. (2021, Eurosurveillance): estimated 470,000 lives saved in Europe, ignoring both natural immunity and early treatment options.
• Commonwealth Fund (2022 blog & updates): claimed massive U.S. deaths averted, with little methodological transparency.

Across all of them, the problems were the same:

• Assumptions stacked on assumptions (fixed infection fatality rates, no waning, vaccines stop spread).
• Counterfactual fantasy: “what would have happened without vaccines” projected with inflated baselines.
• Harms excluded: no deaths or adverse events from vaccination were ever considered.

The authors conclude: these “millions saved” numbers are political constructs — simulations engineered to create the illusion of benefit.

Step 2 — The “Stop the Spread” Lie Was the Core Input

The models’ “lives saved” numbers depended on assuming vaccines stopped spread. The Commonwealth Fund, Watson, Meslé — all explicitly treated vaccination as preventing infection chains, meaning every jab supposedly broke links that would have led to hospitalizations and deaths.

But the reality is undeniable: COVID shots never prevented infection or transmission. Breakthrough cases appeared within weeks of rollout and by 2022 the most vaccinated and boosted populations were driving major waves.

That means the very foundation of the “millions saved” models — durable transmission blocking — was never real. The math was built on a lie.

Step 3 — Zero Proof They Prevented Deaths

Once it was undeniable that vaccines didn’t stop infection, the cartel shifted: “Okay, but they still prevented millions of deaths from severe illness.” This is where the paper drills down into the evidence:

• Randomized Trials: Pfizer and Moderna RCTs were not powered to show mortality benefit. Six-month Pfizer data showed more deaths in the vaccine arm (15 vs. 14). There was no proof of deaths prevented.
• Observational Studies: Israeli NEJM studies and similar reports were methodologically flawed. The paper’s conditional probability analysis showed that the apparent reduction in severe outcomes was just an artifact of short-lived infection prevention, not independent protection against death.
• Dashboards: National health dashboards were widely cited to “prove” fewer deaths among vaccinated. But they presented raw, unadjusted counts. When proper controls were applied, the supposed mortality benefit disappeared — sometimes even reversing.

The authors show clearly: there is no empirical evidence that vaccines prevented deaths.

Step 4 — How the “Millions Saved” Myth Was Manufactured

If the evidence for “millions saved” was this weak, how did it become the official story? The study shows it wasn’t an accident — it was manufactured and enforced by officials, institutions, and media:

• Methodological Tricks: Studies were designed to flatter vaccines — cutting off follow-up before waning appeared, misclassifying vaccine deaths as “unvaccinated,” and ignoring adverse events altogether.
• Misrepresentation: Temporary dips in infection were sold as permanent proof of death prevention.
• Misinterpretation: Crude dashboard counts were treated as scientific fact, even though they ignored age, comorbidities, and risk differences.
• Censorship: Scientists who raised alarms were silenced, de-platformed, or smeared as “misinformation.”

Through these tactics, a fragile, assumption-driven claim was weaponized into a fraudulent consensus — repeated in Senate hearings, government press releases, and media soundbites as though it were beyond question.

Conclusion

The “millions of lives saved” claim is the fraudulent fallback of the vaccine cartel. It collapses when you:

1. See the models (Watson, Meslé, Commonwealth Fund) are speculative, assumption-laden, and one-sided.
2. Recognize that the infection-blocking they relied on was not based upon reality.
3. Note trials, studies, and dashboards show no independent mortality benefit.
4. Understand the narrative was manufactured through bias, misrepresentation, and censorship.

It isn’t science. It’s propaganda. And Americans are no longer buying it.

Nicolas Hulscher, MPH

Epidemiologist and Foundation Administrator, McCullough Foundation

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