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Is Canada’s $100B+ Climate Plan Based on Shaky Science?

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The Audit David Clinton's avatar David Clinton

Rising CO2 levels have, in fact, been instrumental in promoting an ongoing planet-wide increase in vegetation cover. This is thanks to enhanced photosynthesis and water use efficiency and has contributed to higher agricultural yields. It turns out that, whatever acidification may be happening, there appears to be no serious impact on marine life.

The Climate Working Group at the U.S. Department of Energy recently published “A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate“. Of note, that group includes University of Guelph’s very own Professor Ross McKitrick.

The authors conclude that while climate change is real and influenced by human emissions, its risks are often exaggerated. Instead:

  • Published models have consistently and aggressively overestimated warming
  • Extreme weather trends are not worsening as claimed
  • Aggressive mitigation policies may cause more harm than good

Rising CO2 levels have, in fact, been instrumental in promoting an ongoing planet-wide increase in vegetation cover. This is thanks to enhanced photosynthesis and water use efficiency and has contributed to higher agricultural yields. It turns out that, whatever acidification may be happening, there appears to be no serious impact on marine life.

To be sure, there’s been vocal push back against the report’s findings. But that just highlights the complexity, volatility, and intense political stakes of the issues involved.

Despite my own stellar academic publishing history (see my high school paper from 45 years ago on CO2 emissions and the acidification of lakes in Ontario for full details), it turns out that I’m not qualified to express an opinion here. After all, I lack the necessary combined expertise in natural sciences, applied sciences, social sciences, and so on.

But I suspect that the people in Ottawa who make related policy decisions aren’t necessarily all that better prepared than I am. Which makes me wonder just how much of our money has been spent through the past ten years based on assumptions that are far from universally accepted in the scientific community.

The short answer is: many billions of dollars. Here are some highlights:

  • $28.7 billion for the public transit envelope from the Investing in Canada Plan
  • $26.9 billion for the Green Infrastructure Investments envelope from the Investing in Canada Plan
  • $2 billion for the Low Carbon Economy Fund
  • $8 billion for the Net Zero Accelerator
  • $103 billion for the Clean-economy Investment Tax Credits (although that won’t all be spent before 2035)
  • $3 billion in EV purchase rebates from the Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles
  • $2.6 billion for Canada Greener Homes Grants
  • $2.75 billion for the Zero-Emission Transit Fund (school buses and municipal ZEV fleets)
  • $1.5 billion to support low-carbon fuel production and adoption
  • $964 million for the Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program (renewable projects, storage, and grid modernization)
  • $680 million for Zero-Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program (charging stations and hydrogen refuelling)

Granted, some of that funding will address other policy needs besides just climate change mitigation, and nearly all of it is designed to be paid out over multiple years. And of course, not all funds that were allocated have been spent yet. Two thumbs up for inertia!

But it’s still an awful lot of money considering no one really knows for sure whether any of this is helpful. Not to mention that, while it’s complicated, after a decade of trying, Canada’s actual emissions haven’t necessarily dropped.

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The Grocery Greed Myth

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The Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh charges of “greedflation” collapses under scrutiny.

“It’s not okay that our biggest grocery stores are making record profits while Canadians are struggling to put food on the table.” —PM Justin Trudeau, September 13, 2023.

A couple of days after the above statement, the then-prime minister and his government continued a campaign to blame rising food prices on grocery retailers.

The line Justin Trudeau delivered in September 2023, triggered a week of political theatre. It also handed his innovation minister, François-Philippe Champagne, a ready-made role: defender of the common shopper against supposed corporate greed. The grocery price problem would be fixed by Thanksgiving that year. That was two years ago. Remember the promise?

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But as Ian Madsen of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy has shown, the numbers tell a different story. Canada’s major grocers have not been posting “record profits.” They have been inching forward in a highly competitive, capital-intensive sector. Madsen’s analysis of industry profit margins shows this clearly.

Take Loblaw. Its EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) averaged 11.2 per cent over the three years ending 2024. That is up slightly from 10 per cent pre-COVID. Empire grew from 3.9 to 7.6 per cent. Metro went from 7.6 to 9.6. These are steady trends, not windfalls. As Madsen rightly points out, margins like these often reflect consolidation, automation, and long-term investment.

Meanwhile, inflation tells its own story. From March 2020 to March 2024, Canada’s money supply rose by 36 per cent. Consumer prices climbed about 20 per cent in the same window. That disparity suggests grocers helped absorb inflationary pressure rather than drive it. The Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh charges of “greedflation” collapses under scrutiny.

Yet Ottawa pressed ahead with its chosen solution: the Grocery Code of Conduct. It was crafted in the wake of pandemic disruptions and billed as a tool for fairness. In practice, it is a voluntary framework with no enforcement and no teeth. The dispute resolution process will not function until 2026. Key terms remain undefined. Suppliers are told they can expect “reasonable substantiation” for sudden changes in demand. They are not told what that means. But food inflation remains.

This ambiguity helps no one. Large suppliers will continue to settle matters privately. Small ones, facing the threat of lost shelf space, may feel forced to absorb losses quietly. As Madsen observes, the Code is unlikely to change much for those it claims to protect.

What it does serve is a narrative. It lets the government appear responsive while avoiding accountability. It shifts attention away from the structural causes of price increases: central bank expansion, regulatory overload, and federal spending. Instead of owning the crisis, the state points to a scapegoat.

This method is not new. The Trudeau government, of which Carney’s is a continuation, has always shown a tendency to favour symbolism over substance. Its approach to identity politics follows the same pattern. Policies are announced with fanfare, dissent is painted as bigotry, and inconvenient facts are set aside.

The Grocery Code fits this model. It is not a policy grounded in need or economic logic. It is a ritual. It gives the illusion of action. It casts grocers as villains. It gives the impression to the uncaring public that the government is “providing solutions,” and that “it has their backs.” It flatters the state.

Madsen’s work cuts through that illusion. It reminds us that grocery margins are modest, inflation was monetary, and the public is being sold a story.

Canadians deserve better than fables, but they keep voting for the same folks. They don’t think to think that they deserve a government that governs within its limits; a government that accept its role in the crises it helped cause, and restores the conditions for genuine economic freedom. The Grocery Code is not a step in that direction. It was always a distraction, wrapped in a moral pose.

And like most moral poses in Ottawa, it leaves the facts behind.

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Tax filing announcement shows consultation was a sham

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By Franco Terrazzano

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is criticizing Prime Minister Mark Carney for announcing that the government is expanding automatic tax filing within hours of the government’s consultation ending.

“There’s no way government bureaucrats pulled an all-nighter reading through thousands of submissions and survey responses before sending Carney out to make an announcement on automatic tax filing the next morning,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Asking Canadians for their opinion and then ignoring them isn’t a good look for Carney, it makes it look like the government is holding sham consultations.”

The government of Canada announced consultations on automatic tax filing so Canadians could give the government “broad input through an online questionnaire.”

The government’s consultation ended on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025.

Hours after the consultation ended, Carney today announced the government would expand automatic tax filing.

The CRA is already one of the largest arms of the federal government with 52,499 bureaucrats.

The CRA added 13,015 employees since 2016 – a 33 per cent increase. For comparison, America’s Internal Revenue Service has 90,516 bureaucrats. The CRA has one bureaucrat for every 800 Canadians. The IRS has one bureaucrat for every 3,800 Americans.

“The CRA can barely answer the phone, so Carney shouldn’t be giving those bureaucrats more busy work to do,” Terrazzano said. “The CRA is a bloated mess, and Carney should be cutting the cost of bureaucracy not scheming up ways to give the bureaucracy more power over taxpayers.”

The CRA only answered about 36 per cent of the 53.5 million calls it received between March 2016 and March 2017, according to a 2017 Auditor General report. When Canadians were able to get the CRA on the phone, call centre agents gave inaccurate information about 30 per cent of the time.

“The CRA acting as both tax collector and tax filer is a serious conflict of interest,” Terrazzano said. “Trusting the taxman to do your tax return is like trusting your dog to protect your burger.

“Carney should stop the CRA power grab and instead cut taxes and simplify the tax code.”

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