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Ice Surprises – Arctic and Antarctic Ice Sheets Are Stabilizing and Growing

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The Honest Broker The Honest Broker Roger Pielke Jr.'s avatar Roger Pielke Jr.

New climate research in science and policy context

Earlier this week the New York Post asked me to help its readers make sense of some surprising new research on ice dynamics at both poles. The new research appears in a new peer-reviewed paper and a preprint that was just posted.

At the South Pole, Wang et al. 2025 find a record accumulation of ice on the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2021 to 2023, following a steady decrease from 2002 to 2021. The data comes from NASA’s GRACE series of satellites, which have the ability to precisely measure ice mass.

The figure below shows that the recent accumulation is small in the context of the multi-decadal decline, but is still characterized by the paper’s authors as a “significant reversal.” The paper makes no predictions of whether or how long the accumulation might continue.

At the other end of the planet, at the North Pole, a new preprint by England et al. identifies a “surprising, but not unexpected multi-decadal pause in Arctic sea ice loss.”¹ Their data can be seen below.

From the caption to the figure: “(a,b )Observed sea ice area [106 km2] 1979-2024, (c,d) 20 year-trends of September sea ice area [106 km2/decade] with varying end year from 1998 to 2024, in which the red shaded envelope shows the bounds inside which a linear trend is not statistically significant according to a t-test at 95% confidence.” Source: England et al.

Disucssing these new papers and their significance, my op-ed for the NY Post starts as follows:

When it comes to climate change, to invoke one of Al Gore’s favorite sayings, the biggest challenge is not what we don’t know, but what we know for sure but just isn’t so.

Two new studies show that the Earth’s climate is far more complex than often acknowledged, reminding us of the importance of pragmatic energy and climate policies.

One of them, led by researchers at China’s Tongji University, finds that after years of ice sheet decline, Antarctica has seen a “surprising shift”: a record-breaking accumulation of ice.

The paper takes advantage of very precise measurements of Antarctic ice mass from a series of NASA satellites called GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment).

Since the first GRACE satellite was launched in 2002, Antarctica has seen a steady decline in the total mass of its glaciers. Yet the new study found the decline reversed from 2021 to 2023.

Melting Antarctic ice contributes to global sea-level rise, so a reversal of melting will slow that down. Understanding the dynamics of ice mass on Antarctica is thus essential.

The recent Antarctica shift makes only a small dent in the overall ice loss from 2022, but comes as a surprise nonetheless.

A second new paper, a preprint now going through peer review, finds a similar change at the opposite end of the planet.

Antarctic ice has made a turnaround, scientists say, with an increase in ice mass after years of depletion.

Antarctic ice has made a surprising rebound in mass, scientists say

“The loss of Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a pronounced slowdown over the past two decades, across all months of the year,” the paper’s US and UK authors write.

They suggest that the “pause” in Arctic sea ice decline could persist for several more decades.

Together, the two studies remind us that the global climate system remains unpredictable, defying simplistic expectations that change moves only in one direction.

In 2009, then-Sen. John Kerry warned that the Arctic Ocean would be ice-free by 2013: “Scientists tell us we have a 10-year window — if even that — before catastrophic climate change becomes inevitable and irreversible,” he said.

Today, six years after that 10-year window closed, catastrophic climate change has not occurred, even as the planet has indeed continued to warm due primarily to the combustion of fossil fuels.

Partisans in the climate debate should learn from Kerry’s crying wolf.

On one side, catastrophizing climate change based on the most extreme claims leads to skepticism when the promised apocalypse fails to occur on schedule.

On the other side, studies like the two surprising polar-ice papers reveal climate complexities, but don’t prove climate change isn’t real and serious. . .

This last point is important — climate research is not a scoreboard in a Manichean debate, but instead offers certainties, uncertainties, and even areas of total ignorance that establish a nuanced context for developing robust mitigation and adaptation policies.

The rest of my piece discusses this context. Please head over to the NY Post to read the whole thing and then come back to THB and tell me what you think.

One bit of my original draft was cut for space reasons. Here is that part:

Core understandings of climate science have remained remarkably constant over many decades – Humans affect the climate system in many ways, including greenhouse gas emissions, but also through land management, air pollution, and vegetation dynamics. At a planetary scale the net effect of these changes – driven by carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of coal, natural gas, and oil – is a warming of the planetary system. Anticipating regional and local consequences is far more challenging.

Irreducible uncertainties mean that climate variability and change are about risk management. As the late climate scientist Steve Schneider lamented in 2002, “I readily confess a lingering frustration: uncertainties so infuse the issue of climate change that it is still impossible to rule out either mild or catastrophic outcomes, let alone provide confident probabilities for all the claims and counterclaims made about environmental problems.”

Risk management means that as we balance competing objectives in energy policy we should look for opportunities to reduce costs, increase access, ensure security and reduce the human influences on the environment.

The published version ends with may call for policy makers to keep their eyes on the ball:

The surprises revealed by the two new papers about polar ice also remind us that we need to be prepared for unexpected behavior of the climate system, regardless of the underlying causes of change.

History tells us that climate can shift abruptly, with profound consequences for society.

For instance, the 1870s saw a wide range of climate extremes across the planet, by some estimates contributing to the deaths of 4% of global population.

More recently, the climate extremes of the 1970s led to many new US government programs focused on monitoring and researching climate, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Such efforts are crucially important because we can’t always anticipate the results of research. If we could, we wouldn’t need data and science.

Perhaps the most important lesson to take from the new polar-ice findings is that ongoing efforts in Washington, DC to gut climate data and research are deeply misguided.

The global climate system has more surprises in store for us — and we ignore them at our peril.

Read the whole thing here.

Next week here at THB and elsewhere, I’ll have much more on NOAA and current efforts to gut climate data and research.

Before letting you go today — last week I sat down with John Hook from Fox 10 in Phoenix and engaged in a deep discission of climate science and energy policy. You can see the full interview below. Thanks to John for the opportunity and the informed questions — I enjoyed the interview and the chance to explore nuances of climate and energy.

If you value the efforts here at The Honest Broker to contextualize science in policy and politics,

please consider subscribing, sharing, and supporting.

THB exists because of your support.

1 If the pause was “not unexpected” then why was it also “surprising”? But I digress.

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Minneapolis day care filmed empty suddenly fills with kids

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MXM logo MxM News

A Minneapolis day care that went viral last week as a symbol of alleged state-funded fraud suddenly appeared busy on Monday — a sharp departure from what neighbors say is its usual state of near-total inactivity.

The Quality “Learing” Center Minneapolis, flagged in a widely shared video by YouTuber Nick Shirley, had cars filling its parking lot and roughly 20 children coming and going as reporters observed the site. But a nearby resident said the scene was anything but normal.

“We’ve never seen kids go in there until today,” the local resident told the New York Post, describing the center as typically so quiet it appeared permanently closed. “That parking lot is empty all the time. I honestly thought the place was shut down.”

The sudden activity stood in contrast to Shirley’s footage, posted Friday, which showed what appeared to be a dormant facility. In the clip, Shirley confronts a man at the door, pointing out that the center is reportedly approved for nearly 100 children but appeared completely empty at the time. No children were visible during his visit.

The center lists its operating hours as Monday through Thursday from 2 p.m. to 10 p.m. Ibrahim Ali, 26, who identified himself as the manager and said he is the owner’s son, told reporters Monday that Shirley arrived before the center opened. He dismissed the video as misleading.

“You don’t go to a coffee shop at 11 p.m. and say, ‘They’re not working,’” Ali said, arguing the timing explained the empty building. He claimed around 16 children were inside later that afternoon.

Ali also addressed the misspelled word “Learing” on the facility’s exterior sign — a detail that fueled online skepticism — blaming it on a graphic designer. He said the error would be corrected and downplayed its significance, though it was unclear how long the sign had been displayed.

While Quality Learning has not been publicly identified by federal authorities as a target, the center has drawn scrutiny amid a sprawling investigation into what officials say could be a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme involving government-funded programs meant to serve vulnerable populations. Estimates have put the alleged fraud as high as $9 billion, with businesses accused of billing the state for services never rendered.

When asked about the accusations, a woman opening the center at 2 p.m. Monday forcefully denied any wrongdoing. “We don’t have fraud. That’s a lie,” she said before refusing further comment and saying she wanted to speak with an attorney. Another employee became confrontational with reporters outside the building, recording on his phone and demanding they leave the area.

Elsewhere in Minneapolis, ICE agents visited ABC Learning Center, several miles from Quality Learning, requesting attendance records as part of the broader probe. Ahmed Hasan, the center’s director, said agents asked for two months of documentation to verify compliance.

Hasan said the heightened scrutiny has created fear within the local community, particularly among Somali immigrants, who he said feel unfairly targeted. He recalled a recent visit from Shirley’s team that initially caused panic among staff, who believed masked individuals at the door might be federal agents.

“That time ICE was coming for the Somali community. We were scared to open the door,” Hasan said, adding that the allegations surrounding day care fraud have become “a political game.”

As investigators continue digging into the alleged misuse of taxpayer dollars, the sudden appearance of children at a center long described as empty has only intensified questions — and skepticism — surrounding Minnesota’s oversight of publicly funded child care programs.

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Ottawa Is Still Dodging The China Interference Threat

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Lee Harding

Alarming claims out of P.E.I. point to deep foreign interference, and the federal government keeps stalling. Why?

Explosive new allegations of Chinese interference in Prince Edward Island show Canada’s institutions may already be compromised and Ottawa has been slow to respond.

The revelations came out in August in a book entitled “Canada Under Siege: How PEI Became a Forward Operating Base for the Chinese Communist Party.” It was co-authored by former national director of the RCMP’s proceeds of crime program Garry Clement, who conducted an investigation with CSIS intelligence officer Michel Juneau-Katsuya.

In a press conference in Ottawa on Oct. 8, Clement referred to millions of dollars in cash transactions, suspicious land transfers and a network of corporations that resembled organized crime structures. Taken together, these details point to a vulnerability in Canada’s immigration and financial systems that appears far deeper than most Canadians have been told.

P.E.I.’s Provincial Nominee Program allows provinces to recommend immigrants for permanent residence based on local economic needs. It seems the program was exploited by wealthy applicants linked to Beijing to gain permanent residence in exchange for investments that often never materialized. It was all part of “money laundering, corruption, and elite capture at the highest levels.”

Hundreds of thousands of dollars came in crisp hundred-dollar bills on given weekends, amounting to millions over time. A monastery called Blessed Wisdom had set up a network of “corporations, land transfers, land flips, and citizens being paid under the table, cash for residences and property,” as was often done by organized crime.

Clement even called the Chinese government “the largest transnational organized crime group in the history of the world.” If true, the allegation raises an obvious question: how much of this activity has gone unnoticed or unchallenged by Canadian authorities, and why?

Dean Baxendale, CEO of the China Democracy Fund and Optimum Publishing International, published the book after five years of investigations.

“We followed the money, we followed the networks, and we followed the silence,” Baxendale said. “What we found were clear signs of elite capture, failed oversight and infiltration of Canadian institutions and political parties at the municipal, provincial and federal levels by actors aligned with the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department, the Ministry of State Security. In some cases, political donations have come from members of organized crime groups in our country and have certainly influenced political decision making over the years.”

For readers unfamiliar with them, the United Front Work Department is a Chinese Communist Party organization responsible for influence operations abroad, while the Ministry of State Security is China’s main civilian intelligence agency. Their involvement underscores the gravity of the allegations.

It is a troubling picture. Perhaps the reason Canada seems less and less like a democracy is that it has been compromised by foreign actors. And that same compromise appears to be hindering concrete actions in response.

One example Baxendale highlighted involved a PEI hotel. “We explore how a PEI hotel housed over 500 Chinese nationals, all allegedly trying to reclaim their $25,000 residency deposits, but who used a single hotel as their home address. The owner was charged by the CBSA, only to have the trial shut down by the federal government itself,” he said. The case became a key test of whether Canadian authorities were willing to pursue foreign interference through the courts.

The press conference came 476 days after Bill C-70 was passed to address foreign interference. The bill included the creation of Canada’s first foreign agent registry. Former MP Kevin Vuong rightly asked why the registry had not been authorized by cabinet. The delay raises doubts about Ottawa’s willingness to confront the problem directly.

“Why? What’s the reason for the delay?” Vuong asked.

Macdonald-Laurier Institute foreign policy director Christopher Coates called the revelations “beyond concerning” and warned, “The failures to adequately address our national security challenges threaten Canada’s relations with allies, impacting economic security and national prosperity.”

Former solicitor general of Canada and Prince Edward Island MP Wayne Easter called for a national inquiry into Beijing’s interference operations.

“There’s only one real way to get to the bottom of what is happening, and that would be a federal public inquiry,” Easter said. “We need a federal public inquiry that can subpoena witnesses, can trace bank accounts, can bring in people internationally, to get to the bottom of this issue.”

Baxendale called for “transparency, national scrutiny, and most of all for Canadians to wake up to the subtle siege under way.” This includes implementing a foreign influence transparency commissioner and a federal registry of beneficial owners.

If corruption runs as deeply as alleged, who will have the political will to properly respond? It will take more whistleblowers, changes in government and an insistent public to bring accountability. Without sustained pressure, the system that allowed these failures may also prevent their correction.

Lee Harding is a research fellow for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

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