International
Ice Surprises – Arctic and Antarctic Ice Sheets Are Stabilizing and Growing
 
																								
												
												
											 The Honest Broker
 The Honest Broker  Roger Pielke Jr.
 Roger Pielke Jr.
New climate research in science and policy context
Earlier this week the New York Post asked me to help its readers make sense of some surprising new research on ice dynamics at both poles. The new research appears in a new peer-reviewed paper and a preprint that was just posted.
At the South Pole, Wang et al. 2025 find a record accumulation of ice on the Antarctic ice sheet over the period 2021 to 2023, following a steady decrease from 2002 to 2021. The data comes from NASA’s GRACE series of satellites, which have the ability to precisely measure ice mass.
The figure below shows that the recent accumulation is small in the context of the multi-decadal decline, but is still characterized by the paper’s authors as a “significant reversal.” The paper makes no predictions of whether or how long the accumulation might continue.
At the other end of the planet, at the North Pole, a new preprint by England et al. identifies a “surprising, but not unexpected multi-decadal pause in Arctic sea ice loss.”¹ Their data can be seen below.
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From the caption to the figure: “(a,b )Observed sea ice area [106 km2] 1979-2024, (c,d) 20 year-trends of September sea ice area [106 km2/decade] with varying end year from 1998 to 2024, in which the red shaded envelope shows the bounds inside which a linear trend is not statistically significant according to a t-test at 95% confidence.” Source: England et al.
Disucssing these new papers and their significance, my op-ed for the NY Post starts as follows:
When it comes to climate change, to invoke one of Al Gore’s favorite sayings, the biggest challenge is not what we don’t know, but what we know for sure but just isn’t so.
Two new studies show that the Earth’s climate is far more complex than often acknowledged, reminding us of the importance of pragmatic energy and climate policies.
One of them, led by researchers at China’s Tongji University, finds that after years of ice sheet decline, Antarctica has seen a “surprising shift”: a record-breaking accumulation of ice.
The paper takes advantage of very precise measurements of Antarctic ice mass from a series of NASA satellites called GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment).
Since the first GRACE satellite was launched in 2002, Antarctica has seen a steady decline in the total mass of its glaciers. Yet the new study found the decline reversed from 2021 to 2023.
Melting Antarctic ice contributes to global sea-level rise, so a reversal of melting will slow that down. Understanding the dynamics of ice mass on Antarctica is thus essential.
The recent Antarctica shift makes only a small dent in the overall ice loss from 2022, but comes as a surprise nonetheless.
A second new paper, a preprint now going through peer review, finds a similar change at the opposite end of the planet.
Antarctic ice has made a turnaround, scientists say, with an increase in ice mass after years of depletion.
Antarctic ice has made a surprising rebound in mass, scientists say
“The loss of Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a pronounced slowdown over the past two decades, across all months of the year,” the paper’s US and UK authors write.
They suggest that the “pause” in Arctic sea ice decline could persist for several more decades.
Together, the two studies remind us that the global climate system remains unpredictable, defying simplistic expectations that change moves only in one direction.
In 2009, then-Sen. John Kerry warned that the Arctic Ocean would be ice-free by 2013: “Scientists tell us we have a 10-year window — if even that — before catastrophic climate change becomes inevitable and irreversible,” he said.
Today, six years after that 10-year window closed, catastrophic climate change has not occurred, even as the planet has indeed continued to warm due primarily to the combustion of fossil fuels.
Partisans in the climate debate should learn from Kerry’s crying wolf.
On one side, catastrophizing climate change based on the most extreme claims leads to skepticism when the promised apocalypse fails to occur on schedule.
On the other side, studies like the two surprising polar-ice papers reveal climate complexities, but don’t prove climate change isn’t real and serious. . .
This last point is important — climate research is not a scoreboard in a Manichean debate, but instead offers certainties, uncertainties, and even areas of total ignorance that establish a nuanced context for developing robust mitigation and adaptation policies.
The rest of my piece discusses this context. Please head over to the NY Post to read the whole thing and then come back to THB and tell me what you think.
One bit of my original draft was cut for space reasons. Here is that part:
Core understandings of climate science have remained remarkably constant over many decades – Humans affect the climate system in many ways, including greenhouse gas emissions, but also through land management, air pollution, and vegetation dynamics. At a planetary scale the net effect of these changes – driven by carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of coal, natural gas, and oil – is a warming of the planetary system. Anticipating regional and local consequences is far more challenging.
Irreducible uncertainties mean that climate variability and change are about risk management. As the late climate scientist Steve Schneider lamented in 2002, “I readily confess a lingering frustration: uncertainties so infuse the issue of climate change that it is still impossible to rule out either mild or catastrophic outcomes, let alone provide confident probabilities for all the claims and counterclaims made about environmental problems.”
Risk management means that as we balance competing objectives in energy policy we should look for opportunities to reduce costs, increase access, ensure security and reduce the human influences on the environment.
The published version ends with may call for policy makers to keep their eyes on the ball:
The surprises revealed by the two new papers about polar ice also remind us that we need to be prepared for unexpected behavior of the climate system, regardless of the underlying causes of change.
History tells us that climate can shift abruptly, with profound consequences for society.
For instance, the 1870s saw a wide range of climate extremes across the planet, by some estimates contributing to the deaths of 4% of global population.
More recently, the climate extremes of the 1970s led to many new US government programs focused on monitoring and researching climate, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Such efforts are crucially important because we can’t always anticipate the results of research. If we could, we wouldn’t need data and science.
Perhaps the most important lesson to take from the new polar-ice findings is that ongoing efforts in Washington, DC to gut climate data and research are deeply misguided.
The global climate system has more surprises in store for us — and we ignore them at our peril.
Read the whole thing here.
Next week here at THB and elsewhere, I’ll have much more on NOAA and current efforts to gut climate data and research.
Before letting you go today — last week I sat down with John Hook from Fox 10 in Phoenix and engaged in a deep discission of climate science and energy policy. You can see the full interview below. Thanks to John for the opportunity and the informed questions — I enjoyed the interview and the chance to explore nuances of climate and energy.
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Crime
Canada Seizes 4,300 Litres of Chinese Drug Precursors Amid Trump’s Tariff Pressure Over Fentanyl Flows
 
														In what appears to be the second-largest Chinese precursor-chemical seizure in British Columbia in the past decade, Canadian border and police officials announced they intercepted more than 4,300 litres of chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl and other synthetic drugs at a notoriously troubled port in Delta, B.C.
The announcement of a seizure that occurred in May 2025 comes amid President Donald Trump’s continuing pressure on Ottawa to crack down on fentanyl trafficking in the province — which U.S. officials say has become a key production and shipment point for Chinese and Mexican traffickers.
The seizure — announced jointly by the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and the RCMP — underscores the scale and persistence of global trafficking networks funnelling illicit materials into Canada’s drug markets.
According to the agencies, border officers examined two marine containers that arrived from China in mid-May, both bound for Calgary, Alberta. Acting on intelligence developed by CBSA’s Pacific Region, officers discovered 3,600 litres of 1,4 Butanediol, a key ingredient for producing GHB, often known as the “date-rape drug”; 500 litres of Propionyl Chloride, a chemical precursor used to synthesize fentanyl; and 200 litres of Gamma Butyrolactone (GBL), another controlled intoxicant.
The chemicals were concealed inside 60 clear jugs and 20 blue drums within the containers. Investigators believe the shipment was intended for use in clandestine drug laboratories. The RCMP confirmed that an investigation into the importation network remains ongoing.
The seizure comes amid growing concern about Canada’s port security, particularly in Metro Vancouver, where experts and local officials say criminal networks are exploiting gaps in federal enforcement.
The Delta seizure follows a series of major CBSA operations targeting precursor chemicals at Pacific ports. In May 2022, CBSA officers in the Metro Vancouver District examined a container from China declared as “toys” and discovered 1,133 kilograms of the fentanyl-precursor chemical Propionyl Chloride, with the potential to produce more than a billion doses of fentanyl.
Public Safety Canada also reported that in the first half of 2021, CBSA seized more than 5,000 kilograms of precursor chemicals, compared with just 512 kilograms in 2020 — reflecting what officials called a “dramatic escalation” in attempts to smuggle fentanyl inputs into the country.
In 2023, the City of Delta released a report highlighting major vulnerabilities at port terminal facilities, warning that there is “literally no downside” for organized criminals to infiltrate port operations. The report noted that British Columbia’s provincial threat assessment rated ports as highly susceptible to corruption and organized-crime infiltration.
At the time, Delta Mayor George Harvie called the lack of a dedicated national port-policing force “a threat to national security.” In comments to the Canadian Press, Harvie said that while Canada’s ports fall under federal jurisdiction, the “total absence of uniformed police at the facilities makes them obvious targets for criminal elements — from Mexican drug cartels to biker gangs.”
“We’re witnessing a relentless flow of illegal drugs, weapons and contraband into Canada through our ports, and that threatens our national security,” Harvie said.
The Port of Vancouver complex, which includes major terminals in Delta, Surrey, and Vancouver, handles roughly three million containers annually, with millions more expected as port expansion plans move forward.
The Delta report reiterated how difficult it has become to police these sprawling operations since the Ports Canada Police were disbanded in 1997. More than a quarter-century later, Harvie said, the consequences of that decision are now “alarmingly clear.”
The CBSA announcement today comes as U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian exports, accusing Ottawa of failing to interdict the flow of fentanyl and precursor chemicals trafficked through British Columbia ports. Washington has repeatedly pressed Canada to strengthen port enforcement and anti-money-laundering controls, citing the West Coast’s role in China- and Mexico-linked trafficking networks.
Simultaneously, in trade negotiations with Beijing, Mr. Trump announced a reduction in tariffs tied to the fentanyl supply chain — raising concern that Washington has eased pressure on China, the primary source of finished fentanyl now responsible for hundreds of thousands of overdose deaths across North America.
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Business
“We have a deal”: Trump, Xi strike breakthrough on trade and fentanyl
 
														President Trump declared “we have a deal” Thursday after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, describing their nearly two-hour summit as “a 12 out of 10.” Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters the two leaders reached a sweeping agreement to stabilize trade relations and address the deadly fentanyl crisis. “We have a deal. Now, every year we will renegotiate the deal,” Trump said. “But I think the deal will go on for a long time.”
According to Trump, Xi agreed to suspend for one year China’s export restrictions on products made with rare-earth and critical minerals — materials essential to the production of semiconductors, batteries, and high-tech magnets. “There’s no roadblock at all on rare earth,” he said. “It’s a one-year deal that I think will be very routinely extended.” In exchange, Trump said the U.S. would lower the average tariff rate on Chinese imports from 57.6% to 47.6%. Trump emphasized that Xi also committed to intensifying China’s crackdown on fentanyl exports, which have been a major driver of overdose deaths in the United States. “We agreed he’s going to work very hard to stop the flow,” Trump said. “I think you’re going to see a big difference.”
Beijing also pledged to resume “tremendous” purchases of American soybeans, reversing its earlier retaliatory halt. In a Truth Social post later Thursday, Trump said China had additionally agreed to begin purchasing U.S. oil and gas, noting that “a very large-scale transaction may take place concerning the purchase of oil and gas from the Great State of Alaska.” The president confirmed that Taiwan was not discussed during the meeting but said both sides talked about working together to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. “We didn’t really discuss the Russian oil,” he added. “We discussed working together to see if we can get that war finished.”
The meeting, held at a South Korean air base, marked the first in-person exchange between Trump and Xi since his return to the White House. The two leaders greeted each other warmly, with Xi telling Trump, “Great pleasure to see you again.” Xi praised Trump’s leadership, saying, “China’s development goes hand in hand with your vision to make America great again,” and added that the two nations “are fully able to help each other succeed and prosper together.” Much of Thursday’s agreement builds upon a framework negotiated earlier this month in Kuala Lumpur between U.S. and Chinese trade teams.
Trump said he plans to visit China in April, calling the meeting “amazing” and “an outstanding group of decisions.” He did not say whether the pending TikTok deal was discussed. The renewed cooperation on fentanyl follows years of tension over China’s role in the U.S. opioid crisis. The CDC reports the drug has killed nearly 330,000 Americans in the past five years — roughly one in every 1,000 people. Trump has long pressed Beijing to stop the export of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl, arguing the problem is both moral and economic. “They make $100 million selling fentanyl into our country,” Trump said last week. “They lose $100 billion with the 20% tariff. It’s not a good business proposition.”
Trump left Thursday’s summit expressing confidence that the new arrangement marked a major step forward. “On the scale of 0 to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12,” he said. “It was an amazing meeting — and I think this deal will go on for a long time.”
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