From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

It’s striking that Canada has around 100,000 fewer entrepreneurs than two decades ago, even though the population has increased dramatically over that time.

Earlier this week, we marked another Labour Day, and Canada’s job market is losing steam. The slowdown is occurring against the backdrop of unprecedented tariff hikes, persistent geopolitical tensions, and a stagnant Canadian economy. Nationally, employment fell by 40,000 between June and July, with the job losses concentrated in fulltime private-sector positions. Total employment in July was scarcely higher than it was in January (measured on a seasonally adjusted basis). Manufacturing and construction are among the industries that have posted sizable job declines so far in 2025.

The picture is less gloomy on a year-over-year basis. Employment in Canada rose by 1.5 per cent from July 2024 to July 2025. But the month-to-month pace of job creation has been decelerating. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been ticking higher. In July, Canada-wide unemployment stood at 6.9 per cent, up from 5.7 per cent 18 months ago. Job vacancy rates have also been falling. Young adults are bearing much of the burden of Canada’s slumping labour market. Oddly, even amid a recession-bound economy, the federal government inexplicably continues to admit large numbers of temporary foreign workers.

Digging deeper into the data—and going back further to the pre-COVID years—yields insight into the dynamics of Canadian job creation. Looking at the period from January 2019 to July 2025 (roughly six-and-a-half years), we can track the trends in three broad employment categories: private-sector payroll jobs, public-sector jobs and the self-employed.

Since the start of 2019, public-sector jobs are up by almost one-quarter, while private-sector payroll positions have increased by 10 per cent. Meanwhile, the number of self-employed Canadians declined over the same period, suggesting a deterioration of the climate for entrepreneurship in the country. That’s troubling.

Entrepreneurs and startup businesses are the lifeblood of a dynamic market economy. Indeed, economists recognize that a key marker of a thriving economy is a healthy rate of business formation. New businesses are an important source of innovation and fresh ideas. They also help to inject competitive vigour into both local markets and the wider economy—something that’s clearly necessary in Canada, given years of subdued business growth and the cartelization of large swathes of our economy. Accelerating business formation should be a top priority for governments at all levels. Supporting the commercial success of existing young firms is also crucial, given the outsized contributions they make to the overall economic growth process.

For entrepreneurs and others who invest in startup companies, the risk of failure is ever present. Many new businesses don’t survive. In the goods-producing sector of the Canadian economy, about 70 per cent of new businesses survive for at least five years; in the broad services-producing sector, the rate is lower (56 per cent). Ten-year survival rates are around 50 per cent in goods-producing industries and just 35 per cent in service-based industries. Becoming a businessowner/operator is not for the faint of heart.

Canada urgently needs more high-growth businesses. This means building a robust pipeline of new entrepreneurial ventures.

Unfortunately, we have been falling short in this area, with the rate of business startups diminishing. It’s striking that Canada has around 100,000 fewer entrepreneurs than two decades ago, even though the population has increased dramatically over that time.

Canadian policymakers would be wise to ask themselves why entrepreneurship is faltering. Governments should act to modify their tax, regulatory and industrial policies to establish an economic environment that’s more conducive to entrepreneurial wealth-creation and the growth of small and medium-sized businesses.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By David Leis

While wealth-generating industries are hindered, subsidies flow to politically favored projects, leaving capital fleeing and IPO activity collapsing.  Canada’s prosperity is at risk unless leaders cut red tape, open trade, reform taxes, and support industries that create real growth.

Red tape, capital flight and anti-growth policies are draining Canada’s economy. Our prosperity is at risk if leaders don’t act now

Canada is slowly dismantling the foundations of its own prosperity. Instead of unleashing our strengths, we’ve layered on regulation, red tape and ideology that repel investment and weaken our economy—one policy at a time.

This isn’t hyperbole. For over a decade, Canada’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has stagnated. Our productivity has fallen behind global peers. Young people are leaving the country, investment is drying up and even our own entrepreneurs are taking their capital—and their ideas—elsewhere.

We’re not failing because of a lack of resources. Quite the opposite. We have everything: land, minerals, oil, gas, water, agriculture and human talent. But whether it’s energy infrastructure, mining projects or manufacturing capacity, the answer from Ottawa is almost always “no”—thanks to layers of red tape, regulation and risk-averse policy.

Bloated bureaucracy, regulatory overreach and ideologically driven legislation—such as Bill C-69, which made it far harder to approve major energy and infrastructure projects, and Bill C-5, which gives Ottawa sweeping veto power in the name of reconciliation—have created an environment so hostile to investment that many firms no longer even try.

One example illustrates this clearly. The Trans Mountain pipeline—a major oil pipeline intended to carry Alberta crude to Pacific markets—was crippled by government takeover and quintupled in cost. We’re now told it might expand further—if regulators allow it.

Meanwhile, 15 per cent of the pipeline sits idle. This portion, set aside for short-term or on-demand shipments—known as spot capacity—is burdened by toll rates so high that shippers can’t justify using it. These prohibitively high fees, meant to recover the ballooning construction costs, have effectively priced out would-be users, leaving critical infrastructure underused and investment returns diminished.

This isn’t just bad economics. It directly weakens the very foundation of Canadian life—good jobs, innovation and upward mobility. Without strong investment in productive sectors like energy, mining and agriculture, we lose the wealth and opportunity that support our way of life.

Yet we continue to subsidize politically fashionable projects such as pumping billions into electric vehicle plants while punishing the industries that pay the bills.

And the message to innovators is just as bleak: new companies are staying private, avoiding public markets like the Toronto Stock Exchange, where new listings—known as IPOs—have all but disappeared. Bloomberg has reported just one large IPO in Canada so far this year. That’s unthinkable in a country that once marketed itself as a global financial hub. It’s part of a deeper problem: productivity is flatlining, and capital is fleeing, with hundreds of billions of dollars quietly leaving Canada in recent years.

This is why the average Canadian feels poorer—at the grocery store, in job prospects and when trying to save for a home. When investment dries up, so does the future. Our middle class, once the backbone of this country, is being squeezed from all sides: by inflation, stagnating wages, rising taxes and the shrinking availability of meaningful work.

Even our national identity is eroding. What kind of country punishes its wealth creators? What kind of government claims to support Indigenous partnerships while vetoing resource projects that offer Indigenous communities real economic independence? What kind of democracy penalizes companies for speaking openly about their environmental performance?

Canadians are starting to feel it. Young graduates are leaving. Parents are unsure how their kids will afford homes—or futures. We’re told this is the cost of progress. But the truth is simpler: we’re managing our decline.

There is another way. Open internal trade. Restore industrial freedom. Reform taxation to reward innovation and risk. End the obsession with slogans and deliver real-world results.

Canada still has every advantage for renewal. But it will take leadership willing to act. Canadians are ready. It’s time for our policies to catch up.

Renewal begins with the conviction that this country can thrive again—not in theory, not one day, but now. It begins with a government willing to say “yes” to building, producing, investing and competing. It begins with citizens who understand that prosperity is not permanent—it must be earned, protected and made possible by policy.

Without a vibrant economy, there is no middle class. And without a middle class, there is no Canada.

David Leis is President and CEO of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and host of the Leaders on the Frontier podcast.