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Bruce Dowbiggin

When Analytics Fail Is It Time To Call In Legends?

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It seemed only a short while ago that the trend in NHL management was going to toward analytics and new-age concepts of building a Stanley Cup winner. The poster boy for this movement was Kyle Dubas, hired by the Maple Leafs at age 32 to be their general manager. The idea was to take a more empirical approach to winning, eschewing the old sweats of the past.

Dubas, who’d been a GM in the OHL with Sault Ste Marie, represented the ascent of using analytics to determine what makes a team click. It also was a concession to the complications of salary-cap management, the byzantine art of juggling egos and eight-year contracts. It was believed that individuals schooled on that side of the business would be best for the new challenges.

Dubas was not alone in promoting something other than the old “try harder” school of management. Every team made a concession small or large to the new orthodoxy. Needless to say the hockey establishment saw this as a threat to their hegemony in the sport. (Using the term analytics can get you tossed out of a few hockey bars.) Dubas’s firing does not mark the failure of analytics.

Even as they bend a knee to the digital ways of doing business, NHL owners still are fans of the game. Yes, they want the perks in winning. But they also love to hang around the legends of their franchise, guys they grew up idolizing. So when fans get restless, NHL owners often turn to the legendary players of the franchise to take the heat off them.

A classic example covered in our 2015 book Ice Storm was how the hapless Vancouver Canucks, winners of zero Stanley Cups since 1969, pivoted from progressive GM Mike Gillis, who’d taken the team to within a game of the Cup in 2011. When the club failed to advance past the first round in 2012/ 2013, however, owner Francesco Aquilini began taking heat in the market.

A tangled trade controversy with goalie Roberto Longo only exacerbated the tension. When forcing Gillis to hire firebrand coach John Tortorella failed to improve the club’s fortunes, Aquilini handed the GM post to franchise legend Trevor Linden, who had no managerial experience. Since sacking Gillis, the Canucks have failed to make the postseason seven times in nine seasons.

A similar situation has emerged in Calgary where the team canned GM Brad Treliving (who immediately replaced Dubas in Toronto) after missing the playoffs in 2022-23. When given an ultimatum between Treliving and hard-ass coach Darryl Sutter, principal owner Murray Edwards opted to keep Sutter, who had two years left on his contract. When that brainwave went over like a lead balloon in the fan base, the Flames pivoted to hiring Craig Conroy, fan favourite and (here’s a hint) a guy already under contract with the Flames.

The GM shuffle either indicated loyalty to a Flames employee or the fact that Calgary has become a toxic job site in the NHL due to the meddling of its principal owner who flips quarters like manhole covers. Sensing Conroy alone might not be able to placate the base, Flames legend Jarome Iginla was brought in as a special assistant to put a nice face on the floundering Flames.

The genial Iginla has no managerial experience, and new rookie coach Ryan Huska is not going to enjoy Iginla breathing over his shoulder— no matter how pleasant a guy the Hall of Fame is. But if this uncomfortable management structure buys peace for the owner (who principally lives in Switzerland these days) then it will be seen as a success in the owners’ box.

CALGARY, CANADA – MARCH 3: Jarome Iginla #12 of the Calgary Flames jumps over the boards to start his shift during their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at the Scotiabank Saddledome on March 3, 2013 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

Making the Calgary situation more perilous, the other owners are aging, no one locally is a natural candidate to spend the billion dollars it takes to run an NHL club, and the Flames new arena is still, at best, three or four years away. Good luck. So they’re hiring at discount prices.

Calgary is hardly alone. In Philadelphia, Flyers hero Daniel Briere has been handed the job of resurrecting the proud franchise. The Flyers have missed the playoffs the last three seasons, and so Briere has carte blanche (for now) to blow things up in Philly. He’s got two first-round picks at the moment and has done a three-team trade. So he’s been active. Adding ex-Flyer legend John LeClair is another attempt to placate  fans.

Briere says, “We’re going to try to make things happen”. But the question is, how long will the faithful remember Briere the Hero when the current team is a mess on the ice? Former heroes don’t like their reputations tarnished by making the wrong moves.

Mike Grier is another former fan favourite, this time in San Jose, where he took over the GM job from longtime stalwart Doug Wilson. Grier hired his old college buddy David Quinn to coach the toothless Sharks, but you know his stale date is coming soon if San Jose doesn’t get moving fast.  Ditto for former-stars-turned GMs Chris Drury (New York Rangers) and Rob Blake (L.A. Kings).

Joe Sakic is one legend-turned-general-manager who did succeed, taking over the Colorado Avalanche is 2014 and helping to guide them to a Stanley Cup in 2022. Sakic was aided by taking over the Avs at their lowest point, which earned them superstars like Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar in the draft. He won the GM of the year in 2022 and has now moved out of the GM chair.

Red Wings legend and current GM Steve Yzerman is unique, having built the Tampa Bay Lightning into Stanley Cup winners before returning to Detroit to resuscitate the pitiful Red Wings, who’ve gone from model NHL franchise between 1990-2017 to seven straight playoff misses since. It would take something monumental for the Detroit fanbase to turn on Yzerman, but there is an expectation that he needs success— soon.

So analytics may not have conquered the NHL as yet, but summoning team legends still has its fans in owners desperate to have someone else to blame.

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Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his new book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via http://brucedowbigginbooks.ca/book-personalaccount.aspx

 

BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Getting Real About Justin’s Real Estate Economy. It Won’t Last

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Have you ever been to a concert where a hot new product like Tesla is mentioned and many in the crowd applaud in approval? Have you been at a dinner party when you say you went to a new Thai restaurant, and everyone at the table explodes in rhapsodic glee? Have you ever been to see a comic and he mentions he has the latest iPhone with the nifty camera and people actually cheer?

You see those people cheering a piece of tech or a style of cuisine? Those are the people who believed Justin Trudeau when he told them to sink everything into real estate when interest rates were near zero. They. Will. Believe. Anything. So long as they think it makes them cool kids. Trudeau could say he can control the weather by stopping cows from farting, and they’ll be wearing a bovine flatulence T-shirts pronto.

Now, we can hear you laughing in derision at our skepticism about the real estate-economy that has taken over the nation— the new economy that Justin fed, watered and then bragged about. (To the exclusion of the other cornerstones of our once-dynamic nation state.) The one that will be going to Market one of these days for a meeting with an air compressor.

Again, you laugh. Despite the housing shortage Justin says we can easily accommodate two million new souls a year, no problem. He says Trump was a vile racist for wanting to exclude unhinged radicals from zombie countries back in 2017. The freshly-arrived from Trump’s “shithole countries” with “shithole value systems” and “shithole economies’ will prop up the value of Canada’s two-million dollar cash-cow bungalow in West Van or Etobicoke. And the Happy People believe.

Why? Because Justin and his cabinet are in Control, and they’ll just rein in these types when they get here and start asking that Jews be exterminated or white people surrender the merit system to DEI droogs. That little dustup at the universities where nervous trust-fund virgins claim to be onside with systemic rape? Justin can stop them anytime. Everything is cool. After all, Canada is the model for a postmodern state.

And that stuff about how the Canadian real estate market being 80 percent propped up by drug money, kleptocracy profits and Blackrock? Pshaw. That is just the Far Right Diagolons trying to panic you into hiding your money from the government which just wants to send it to the “shithole” countries in a kickback loop. If nothing else, the banks will save you— if there’s any shareholder value left after this deranged DEI diversion.

Can’t happen here? We know people who were around the EU in 2008 when the U.S. mortgage debacle cratered economies around the world. For years they’d been served by Poles in the service industry, Spaniards in the restaurant kitchens and Bulgarians doing the physical labour. Life was good. Everyone drove a Beemer and owned a condo overlooking the sea.

Then, one day, they noticed that all the airport parking lots were overflowing with Beemers that went unclaimed. No one had paid rent in months. The banks noticed that all these lovely fellow citizens of the EU had drained their savings, reached their cash credit limit on the Mastercard and skedaddled with the dough. Funny, they all must have gone on holidays to once, no?

No. They were gone. Bye bye. Adios. And the credit bubbles in Ireland, Norway, Iceland, France and other EU worthies popped like the champagne they’d been sipping for years on easy credit and idiotic notions of productivity. Nations like Iceland went bankrupt overnight. Counties in England threw their keys on the table. People’s life savings evaporated.

But Justin says that won’t happen here on his co-watch with Jagmeet the Bespoke. Sure, no one under the age of 40 can afford those two-million dollar cash-cow bungalows in West Van or Etobicoke. But those old Boomer geezers will die soon, and after we tax the daylights out of the estate, the kiddos will inherit the house. Probably after we turn it into a four-plex or fine them for having empty bedrooms because they couldn’t afford kids.

One of the ferocious beauties of market economies is their way of periodically turning on themselves when too many people are getting rich too easily. The Canadian RE economy of Justin Trudeau is one of them. It’s about a decade old without any sign of dropping. Life is good. Everyone drives a Tesla and rents a condo overlooking the sea.

Little wonder. Everything he and his faculty lounge of dimwits like Chrystia Freeland, Melanie Joly and Steven Guilbeault have done this decade has been to prop up the value of real estate owned by their real pals in Asia, Europe, the assorted kleptocracies in Africa or the sub-continent. It was like an ad for Chlorox the way these “investors” blithely laundered their dirty money in Canadian condos and low-rises. When news leaked out that mobsters were using casinos in B.C. (where Justin’s maternal side came from) as a laundering station it was covered up very quickly.

But the clock ticks. Even Justin’s former finance minister Bill Morneau is warning that the bubble is going to pop if Justin keeps printing more money to keep the real estate values so unsupportably high. The entire middle class of Canada, which has ridden the real estate train, will see their life savings evaporate like Jody Wilson Raybould’s political career.

No matter. Justin’s been living in government housing since 2015 (some of it with his Mommy). What does a trust-fund nit know about making rent cheques or a mortgage payment? Without Sophie spending like a dervish, he never needs to look at an America Express card again. He’s got 17 more months to build up credits with his future benefactors, and he’s not applying the handbrake now.

Okay, you can applaud now.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Now for pre-order, new from the team of Evan & Bruce Dowbiggin . Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL & Changed Hockey. From Espo to Boston in 1967 to Gretz in L.A. in 1988 to Patrick Roy leaving Montreal in 1995, the stories behind the story. Launching in paperback and Kindle on #Amazon this week. Destined to be a hockey best seller. https://www.amazon.ca/Deal-Trades-Stunned-Changed-Hockey-ebook/dp/B0D236NB35/

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Do It Once, Shame On You; Do It Twice, Shame On Me

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Now that the annoying Toronto Maple Leafs business (In Toronto The Leafs Always Fall In Spring ) is in the rearview mirror it’s time to turn Canada’s yearning eyes to… the Vancouver Canucks? Okay, the Edmonton Oilers are in the second round, too, playing the Canucks. But it’s the unlikely re-appearance of the Nucks, like some Ogopogo on skates, that commands the curious attention of Canadians.

While Edmonton may even win the Cup this year— should its forward-heavy strategy work better than it did for the Maple Leafs— seeing the team in blue and green re-emerge after eight seasons out of eleven with no playoffs— no postseason since 2020— has some intriguing side stories. It’s been bleak since the owner blew up his team in 2013 for fear of losing a few season-ticket holders.

Vancouver is the only Canadian team to go to Game 7 twice in the Finals since Montreal won the Cup in 1993. In 1994 it was defeat at the hands of Mark Messier and the Rangers. In 2011 it was the bastard, er… Boston Bruins who skated away with the Cup in seven. And, as everyone at HNIC reminds us, Calgary (2004), Edmonton (2006), Ottawa (2007) and Montreal (2021) all fell in the Final, too. But that’s it. Seven spins of the Plinko in 31 years.

With NHL ensuring that only one of the two remaining Canadian clubs will advance after this round, the chances of a Canadian team making it eight Finals in 31 years are slim. So why not the team that plays at 10 PM ET all the time, the team that was predicted to be among the League’s worst this year. Your Vancouver Canucks. After all, it would be so perfect for the team from the home of loony politics to win the Cup.

Primary among them is the symmetry of the Hamas disturbances across the county today that recall the 2011 Canucks riot that followed the Game Seven loss by Alain Vigneault’s team. For those who don’t remember, the bitter loss fused overly refreshed Canucks fans with an element that had nothing to do with hockey on a warm summer night.

As the fans streamed away from the Rogers Centre and the open-air watch parties, the now-familiar masked balaclava-wearing, backpack toting radicals moved among them, whipping up the fans’ monumental disappointment with urges to vandalize and loot. Viewers saw an incongruous picture of these fifth columnists and fans in the team jersey becoming involved in the smashing of windows and setting of fires. Sure, Montreal had seen recent riots after Stanley Cups but there was little element of politics in the drunken behaviour.

Not Vancouver. Not in 2011. Seeing the random anarchists and looters on Granville and Robson Streets the question was, “Why were the cops and elected officials so unprepared?”

It was an unsettling conclusion to a season of so much good feeling in Vancouver, staining the memory of a gifted hockey team that simply ran out of healthy bodies. The most common reaction to the riots was “Who were those non-hockey people in the riot?” There were jokes about the instigators were 257 Daniel Sedins, 319 Henrik Sedins and 195 Roberto Luongos. But they fell flat.

Many were shocked to see so many anarchists, Marxists, radical climate freaks, petty criminals and psychopaths in their midst. Like the reaction to the Palestinian mobs waving Death To Jews and From The River to the Sea, the impact on average Canadians— the kind who watch hockey, not Mao, as a religion— was unsettling. The damages soared into the tens of millions as Vancouver’s looked at a burned-out downtown and asked, “What happened?”

Later investigations revealed a large contingent of the rioters came from as far away as the Pacific Northwest and California. This was an organized event. Again, how did so many people with evil intent get into the country? The answer to most of the questions was very Canadian. People thought it couldn’t happen here.

It’s what most are saying about the Hamas-inspired wave of crime and insubordination now on screens. Canadians have always been so liberal and self effacing. How did they end up branded by homicidal Hamas as supporting the murder of babies? Isn’t there supposed to be some pay-off for being kind and opening the doors to unchecked immigration from countries where terror and instability are the watchwords?

What is just as unnerving about the Palestinian intifada ugliness is the realization that, memories of 2011, the anti-Israel demonstrators represent  only a part of the mobs denying entry to Jewish students at schools or blocking traffic or defacing buildings with messages of hate. It’s clear that anti-capitalist nihilists are in equal numbers in the crowds, whipping up hapless coeds, grad-school nimrods and nutty professors with their messages.

Worse, the uniform tents, signs, chants and more across the continent are the products of donors linked to some of the most famous names in finance— Rockefeller, Gates, Soros.

Citizens are right to wonder how the toxic politics of the Middle East has fused with a bottomless pit of money to upend their capitalist society. And to realize that the liberal tenets of toleration and friendliness espoused by feckless politicians have only brought on this crisis.

And to think that most thought it all behind them after they’d cleaned up the broken glass and burned cars in 2011. As they say, do it once, shame on you. Do it twice, shame on me.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Now for pre-order, new from the team of Evan & Bruce Dowbiggin . Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL & Changed Hockey. From Espo to Boston in 1967 to Gretz in L.A. in 1988 to Patrick Roy leaving Montreal in 1995, the stories behind the story. Launching in paperback and Kindle on #Amazon this week. Destined to be a hockey best seller. https://www.amazon.ca/Deal-Trades-Stunned-Changed-Hockey-ebook/dp/B0D236NB35/

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