Business
Federal government should change course in upcoming budget to revitalize economy
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro
From 2020 to 2030, Canada is projected to record the slowest rate of per-person GDP growth among 38 developed countries in the OECD. Simply put, Canada’s economy is stalling relative to its own past performance and other comparable countries around the world.
The Trudeau government will table its next budget on April 16, and it must address Canada’s stagnant economy. While the economy won’t turn around overnight, the government should recognize that its current policy approach isn’t working.
According to a recent Leger poll, nearly two-thirds of Canadians have a “poor” or “very poor” view of Canada’s economy. And it’s no wonder they feel this way. Canada is experiencing an economic growth crisis. From 2013 to 2022, inflation-adjusted per-person GDP (a broad measure of living standards) grew at its slowest pace since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Since the Trudeau government took office in 2015, per-person GDP (inflation-adjusted) in Canada has grown by only 1.9 per cent—nearly one-eighth the growth rate in the United States over that same period.
Moreover, from 2020 to 2030, Canada is projected to record the slowest rate of per-person GDP growth among 38 developed countries in the OECD. Simply put, Canada’s economy is stalling relative to its own past performance and other comparable countries around the world.
Why?
While there are many reasons for this slump in economic activity, consider the collapse of business investment in Canada. From 2014 to 2021, business investment per worker (excluding residential construction) fell from C$18,363 to C$14,687. In contrast, during that same period, business investment per worker in the United States grew from C$23,333 to C$26,751. In other words, Canada experienced the equivalent of a $43.7 billion decline in annual business investment while the U.S. enjoyed a C$585.1 billion increase (all figures adjusted for inflation).
Business investment is crucial for economic growth (and subsequent increased living standards) because it provides the resources needed to equip workers with tools and technology, for businesses to expand operations and become more productive, and for new businesses to enter the market. This in turn fuels innovation and productivity, which are key determinants of living standards.
Which brings us back to the Trudeau government. The collapse of business investment in Canada has been due in part to recent federal policy including Bill C-69, which introduced new and costly assessment criteria for energy projects, Bill C-48, which restricts tanker traffic off British Columbia’s north coast, and the forthcoming emissions cap on oil and gas, which will increase the cost of doing business in Canada.
Clearly, Ottawa has thrown up stiff regulatory barriers that deter investment in Canada’s energy and mining sectors. According to a 2023 survey of oil and gas executives, more than two-thirds of respondents viewed Canada’s regulatory environment as a deterrent to investment. And on the fiscal front, a string of deficits and massive debt accumulation create uncertainty around future tax increases, which gives investors another reason to take their money elsewhere.
Finally, the Trudeau government also believes that government should play an active role in the economy by handing out corporate welfare and subsidies to favoured industries and firms (i.e. electric vehicle battery industry). But when government tries to pick winners and losers in the market, it may actually inhibit rather than help the economy. Instead, the government should leave decisions in the free market to the investors, businessowners and entrepreneurs who have firsthand knowledge of their industries and businesses.
The Trudeau government has done little to promote economic growth and raise living standards for Canadians. While it will take time to turn things around, in its upcoming budget the government should finally change course and help revitalize the Canadian economy.
Authors:
From Heartland Daily News
By Nick Pope
“California and an unaccountable EPA are trying to transform our national trucking industry and supply chain infrastructure. This effort—coming at a time of heightened inflation and with an already-strained electrical grid—will devastate the trucking and logistics industry, raise prices for customers, and impact untold number of jobs across Nebraska and the country”
Large coalitions of red states are suing regulators in Washington, D.C., and California over rules designed to effectively require increases in electric vehicle (EV) adoption.
Nebraska is leading a 24-state coalition in a lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recently-finalized emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, and a 17-state coalition suing the state of California in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California over its Advanced Clean Fleet rules. Both regulations would increase the number of heavy-duty EVs on the road, a development that could cause serious disruptions and cost increases across the U.S. economy, as supply chain and trucking sector experts have previously told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“California and an unaccountable EPA are trying to transform our national trucking industry and supply chain infrastructure. This effort—coming at a time of heightened inflation and with an already-strained electrical grid—will devastate the trucking and logistics industry, raise prices for customers, and impact untold number of jobs across Nebraska and the country,” Republican Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers said in a statement. “Neither California nor the EPA has the constitutional power to dictate these nationwide rules to Americans. I am proud to lead our efforts to stop these unconstitutional attempts to remake our economy and am grateful to our sister states for joining our coalitions.”
(RELATED: New Analysis Shows Just How Bad Electric Trucks Are For Business)
While specifics vary depending on the type of heavy-duty vehicle, EPA’s emissions standards will effectively mandate that EVs make up 60% of new urban delivery trucks and 25% of long-haul tractors sold by 2032, according to The Wall Street Journal. The agency has also pushed aggressive emissions standards for light- and medium-duty vehicles that will similarly force an increase in EVs’ share of new car sales over the next decade.
California’s Advanced Clean Fleet rules, meanwhile, will require that 100% of trucks sold in the state will be zero-emissions models starting in 2036, according to the California Air Resources Board (CARB). While not federal, the California rules are of importance to other states because there are numerous other states who follow California’s emissions standards, which can be tighter than those required by the EPA and other federal agencies.
Critics fear that this dynamic will effectively enable California to set national policies and nudge manufacturers in the direction of EVs at a greater rate and scale than the Biden administration is pursuing.
Trucking industry and supply chain experts have previously told the DCNF that both regulations threaten to cause serious problems for the country’s supply chains and wider economy given that the technology for electric and zero-emissions trucks is simply not yet ready to be mandated at scale, among other issues.
Neither CARB nor the EPA responded immediately to requests for comment.
Nick Pope is a contributor to The Daily Caller News Service.
Originally published by The Daily Caller. Republished with permission.
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss
For decades, Canada and other countries in the G7 have been known as the economic powerhouses of the world. They generally have had the biggest economies and the most prosperous countries. But in recent years, poor government policy across the G7 has contributed to slowing economic growth and near-stagnant living standards.
Simply put, the Group of Seven countries—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States—have become complacent. Rather than build off past economic success by employing small governments that are limited and efficient, these countries have largely pursued policies that increase or maintain high taxes on families and businesses, increase regulation and grow government spending.
Canada is a prime example. As multiple levels of government have turned on the spending taps to expand programs or implement new ones, the size of total government has surged ever higher. Unsurprisingly, Canada’s general government spending as a share of GDP has risen from 39.3 per cent in 2007 to 42.2 per cent in 2022.
At the same time, federal and provincial governments have increased taxes on professionals, businessowners and entrepreneurs to the point where the country’s top combined marginal tax rate is now the fifth-highest among OECD countries. New regulations such as Bill C-69, which instituted a complex and burdensome assessment process for major infrastructure projects and Bill C-48, which prohibits producers from shipping oil or natural gas from British Columbia’s northern coast, have also made it difficult to conduct business.
The results of poor government policy in Canada and other G7 countries have not been pretty.
Productivity, which is typically defined as economic output per hour of work, is a crucial determinant of overall economic growth and living standards in a country. Over the most recent 10-year period of available data (2013 to 2022), productivity growth has been meagre at best. Annual productivity growth equaled 0.9 per cent for the G7 on average over this period, which means the average rate of growth during the two previous decades (1.6 per cent) has essentially been chopped in half. For some countries such as Canada, productivity has grown even slower than the paltry G7 average.
Since productivity has grown at a snail’s pace, citizens are now experiencing stalled improvement in living standards. Gross domestic product (GDP) per person, a common indicator of living standards, grew annually (inflation-adjusted) by an anemic 0.7 per cent in Canada from 2013 to 2022 and only slightly better across the G7 at 1.3 per cent. This should raise alarm bells for policymakers.
A skeptic might suggest this is merely a global phenomenon. But other countries have fared much better. Two European countries, Ireland and Estonia, have seen a far more significant improvement than G7 countries in both productivity and per-person GDP.
From 2013 to 2022, Estonia’s annual productivity has grown more than twice as fast (1.9 per cent) as the G7 countries (0.9 per cent). Productivity in Ireland has grown at a rapid annual pace of 5.9 per cent, more than six times faster than the G7.
A similar story occurs when examining improvements in living standards. Estonians enjoyed average per-person GDP growth of 2.8 per cent from 2013 to 2022—more than double the G7. Meanwhile, Ireland’s per-person GDP has surged by 7.9 per cent annually over the 10-year period. To put this in perspective, living standards for the Irish grew 10 times faster than for Canadians.
But this should come as no surprise. Governments in Ireland and Estonia are smaller than the G7 average and impose lower taxes on individuals and businesses. In 2019, general government spending as a percentage of GDP averaged 44.0 per cent for G7 countries. Spending for governments in both Estonia and Ireland were well below this benchmark.
Moreover, the business tax rate averaged 27.2 per cent for G7 countries in 2023 compared to lower rates in Ireland (12.5 per cent) and Estonia (20.0 per cent). For personal income taxes, Estonia’s top marginal tax rate (20.0 per cent) is significantly below the G7 average of 49.7 per cent. Ireland’s top marginal tax rate is below the G7 average as well.
Economic progress has largely stalled for Canada and other G7 countries. The status quo of government policy is simply untenable.
Author:
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