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Earth’s population will begin to shrink in a few decades. That’s bad news for everyone

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From LifeSiteNews

By Michael Munger

Unless something changes, many countries will face circumstances that, until now, have only ever been observed during catastrophic plagues or savage wars.

Earth is going to hit “peak population” before the end of this century. Within 25 years, most of the world’s developed nations will be facing sharp population declines, with shrinking pools of young people working to support an ever-aging population.

The reason is not famine, war, or pestilence. We did this to ourselves, by creating a set of draconian solutions to a problem that didn’t even exist. Fear has always been the best tool for social control, and the fear of humanity was deployed by generations of “thinkers” on the control-obsessed left.

Most starkly, Paul Ehrlich made a remarkably frightening, and entirely false, prediction in 1968, in his book Population Bomb (PDF):

The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines — hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate…

We may be able to keep famine from sweeping across India for a few more years. But India can’t possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980. Nothing can prevent the death of tens of millions of people in India in the 1970s…

And England? If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.

PJ O’Rourke explained what was going on, in his 1994 book All the Trouble in the World:

The bullying of citizens by means of dreads and fights has been going on since paleolithic times. Greenpeace fundraisers on the subject of global warming are not much different than the tribal Wizards on the subject of lunar eclipses. ‘Oh no, Night Wolf is eating the Moon Virgin. Give me silver and I will make him spit her out.’

Family planning and state intervention

But there is more going here than just gulling the gullible; the overpopulation hysteria of the 1960s and 1970s had world-changing consequences, effects that are just now becoming clear. It’s not fair (though it is fun) to blame Ehrlich; the truth is that the full-blown family-size freakout emerged from a pseudo-science that held growth was a threat to prosperity. Influential organizations were founded by very worried people. The Population Council and the International Planned Parenthood Federation were both created early on, in 1952. Developing nations began promoting aggressive family planning initiatives, often with substantial support, and sometimes with coercive pressures, from Western governments and international agencies.

The United Nations, the World Bank, and bilateral donors, particularly the United States through USAID, increasingly integrated population control into foreign aid programs. High fertility rates, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, were viewed not merely as demographic trends but as Malthusian obstacles to modernization, poverty alleviation, and global security. China implemented its infamous “One-Child Policy” in 1979 with coercive measures, including forced sterilizations and abortions. India conducted mass sterilization campaigns, particularly during the Emergency period (1975–1977), often using force or extreme social pressure, including withholding ration cards. A number of countries in East Asia saw aggressive state-controlled programs, often funded by the World Bank, that sought to use questionable and coercive methods to reduce population growth quickly and permanently.

In more than a few cases, of course, the availability of contraception was actually a means of freeing women to make a choice to have fewer children. But combining this choice with state-sponsored coercion meant that even those who wanted more children, or would have wanted more children if the social pressures had been more sensibly used, were diverted from their private dream of several children.

That would be bad enough, if that were the end of the story. But it is only the beginning, because the sanctimony of scientism has created an actual population crisis, one that will affect the world for decades. Some nations may never recover, at least not in their present form. That crisis is the population bust.

Shrinking planet: Which nations will peak when?

Country Total Fertility Rate Projected Peak Population Year
Australia 1.66 (2023) 2035
Austria 1.45 (2022) 2040
Belgium 1.60 (2022) 2038
Canada 1.40 (2022) 2045
Chile 1.48 (2022) 2040
Czech Republic 1.70 (2021) 2033
Denmark 1.55 (2022) 2037
Finland 1.35 (2021) 2035
France 1.84 (2021) 2050
Germany 1.53 (2021) 2035
Greece 1.43 (2021) 2030
Hungary 1.55 (2021) 2035
Ireland 1.78 (2021) 2045
Israel 3.00 (2021) No peak this century
Italy 1.25 (2021) 2030
Japan 1.30 (2021) 2008 (already peaked)
Korea 0.70 (2023) 2025 (peaking)
Mexico 1.73 (2021) 2050
Netherlands 1.60 (2021) 2040
New Zealand 1.65 (2022) 2045
Norway 1.50 (2021) 2040
Poland 1.39 (2021) 2032
Portugal 1.40 (2024) 2028
Spain 1.19 (2021) 2028
Sweden 1.60 (2021) 2045
Turkey 2.05 (2021) 2050
United Kingdom 1.53 (2021) 2040
United States 1.62 (2023) 2045
REPLACEMENT TFR 2.08-2.11 Constant population
See endnote for more source information.

Peak population years are based on UN World Population Prospects (PDF) mid‑variant projections, supported by regional reports noting that most European/North American nations will peak in the late 2030s. Japan already peaked around 2008, South Korea around 2025, and Israel — with TFR near 3.0 — may not peak this century.

As is noted in the final row of the table, the replacement rate for total fertility is about 2.10, given trends in life expectancy and assuming no net migration.

This raises a question: if all these countries have TFRs below replacement, what is actually happening to the world’s population? The answer is simple, though it has not been talked about much. The world population is going to peak, and then start to decline. The total number of people on Earth will begin to fall sometime in the near future. The actual date of the peak is a matter of conjecture, since it depends on specific assumptions, but the estimates appear mostly to fall between 2060 (assuming current TFRs are constant) and 2080 (if TFRs increase slightly, and life span increases):

Sources:
United Nations Medium-Fertility Projection (orange line)
Simplified Lancet Projection Population Scenario (yellow line)

None of this needed to happen, folks. There is plenty of room on Earth, as you know if you have ever flown across Australia, Canada, or for that matter the US, at night. There is a lot of empty space.

Let’s do a thought experiment: there are 8.1 billion people on Earth now. Suppose all of them lived in the US state of Texas (for those Texans reading this, I know it seems like we are moving in that direction; the traffic in Dallas is remarkable!). Texas has an area of 676,600 square kilometers. So supposing present trends continue, and literally the whole world did move to Texas; what would that look like?

Well, 8.1 billion / 676,600 is about 12,000 people per square kilometer. That’s slightly more dense than the five boroughs of New York (about 11,300 per square kilometer), but much less than Paris (20,000), and dramatically less than Manila (nearly 44,000). Now, New York and Paris are pretty crowded, but people do live there, and even go there voluntarily to visit sometimes. Even if the entire current global population had to move into Texas, it’d be only marginally more annoying than Manhattan at rush hour.

So, here’s the takeaway: there was no good reason for the population hysteria of past decades. As I tried to argue in an earlier piece, those predictions were ridiculous even at the time. And we need not be concerned about reviving the “population bomb,” because there is plenty of room, even if the human population does start to grow again, and even if we all had to move to Texas.

The effects of population decline are already starting to be felt in countries such as South Korea and Japan. As the average age climbs, the absolute number of people under 40 starts to decline. Unless something changes, the world population in general, and many specific countries, will face circumstances that, until now, have only ever been observed during catastrophic plagues or savage wars: blocks of empty houses, abandoned cities, and hordes of elderly people who lack the ability to provide for themselves. The difference in the present case, however, is that we are not suffering from famine or war. As Antony Davis pointed out, the current collapse of world civilization is a consequence of a striking failure to recognize that human beings are the most valuable resource we have.

Some notes on sources

Reprinted with permission from The Daily Economy.

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COVID-19

RFK Jr. Calls Out CDC’s ‘Disastrous’ Failures, Defends Cleaning House In Heated Hearing

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Emily Kopp

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. challenged the record of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on the COVID-19 pandemic and the precipitous rise in chronic disease in the U.S. as he defended his shakeup of the health agency at a Senate hearing Thursday.

“These changes were absolutely necessary to restore the CDC’s role as the world’s gold standard public health with a central mission of protecting Americans from infectious disease,” Kennedy said. “CDC failed that responsibility miserably during COVID when its disastrous and nonsensical policies destroyed small businesses, violated civil liberties, closed our schools and caused generational damage in doing so, masked infants with no science and heightened economic inequality.”

The combative hearing follows Kennedy’s high-profile showdown with former CDC Director Susan Monarez last week. Kennedy ousted Monarez from the post on Aug. 25, less than a month into her tenure, over a dispute about his overhaul of the committee that advises the CDC on vaccine schedules.

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In a Senate Finance Committee hearing, Democrats and Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana criticized Kennedy for his actions to remake the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), as well as changes by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to COVID-19 vaccine approvals. They lambasted Kennedy as undermining confidence in vaccines and in established science.

“I’m approaching this as a doctor, not as a senator. I am concerned about children’s health, seniors’ health, all of our health. And I applaud you for joining the president in a call for radical transparency,” said Cassidy, referring to President Donald Trump’s call on Truth Social for COVID vaccine manufacturers to make data more readily available.

Cassidy last week appeared to side with Monarez in her dustup with Kennedy, urging physicians to ignore the ACIP’s recommendations.

Monarez alleged in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published hours before the hearing that Kennedy had pressured her to preapprove the outcome of an ACIP meeting scheduled for Sept. 18-19. Kennedy said that the op-ed amounted to a lie. He denied having a private meeting with her in which he asked her to leave.

Kennedy dismissed criticism of the changes to the ACIP from the American Academy of Pediatrics, pointing to the association’s pharmaceutical ties. Kennedy also cited a 2000 congressional investigation into physicians and scientists serving on the committee with financial stakes in the drugmakers they oversaw.

“I didn’t politicize ACIP, I depoliticized it,” Kennedy said.

Kennedy answered the broader criticism with a scathing referendum of the CDC’s actions during the COVID pandemic and insisted the agency should focus on its original mission of protecting Americans from infectious diseases. Kennedy added the agency requires “new blood” in light of the CDC’s “catastrophically bad judgement” during the pandemic.

“The U.S. is home to 4.2% of the world’s population yet we had nearly 20% of the COVID deaths,” Kennedy said. “The people at CDC who oversaw that process, who put masks on our children, who closed our schools, are the people who will be leaving.”

Kennedy also questioned whether the CDC was complacent amid a precipitous rise in rates of obesity, heart disease and diabetes.

“CDC’s job was to make sure this didn’t happen,” he said.

Sometimes Kennedy also directly challenged the records of individual senators on the panel, including Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Ron Wyden of Oregon.

Kennedy accused Wyden of overseeing a rise in childhood chronic disease from a position of influence over American health care.

“Senator you’ve sat in that chair for how long? Twenty, twenty-five years? While the chronic diseases in our children went up to 76%. And you said nothing,” Kennedy said.

Wyden has served on the Finance Committee, which shares jurisdiction over health policy issues, since 1996.

Kennedy also named a litany of HHS priorities addressed since his February confirmation, asserting that his brief tenure has been among the most productive in history on issues ranging from food dyes, baby formula, fluoride in tap water, 7-OH or “gas station heroin,” drug prices, the “GRAS” loophole, reducing animal testing, ending gain-of-function research, FDA drug approvals and ending diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies.

Kennedy also opened his testimony by expressing sympathy for the family of Dekalb County police officer David Rose who died by gunshot in an attack on CDC headquarters.

 

Pullback Of COVID Vaccines In Perpetuity

Several senators criticized a new FDA framework to require new clinical trial data for annual COVID-19 booster shots for healthy adults and children. Democrats portrayed the move as a betrayal of Kennedy’s promise at confirmation hearings earlier this year to not restrict access to vaccines. People can continue to seek the vaccine off-label, but the HHS actions limit insurance coverage.

Kennedy reminded the panel that two top vaccine regulators at the FDA during the Biden administration, Marion Gruber and Phil Krause, departed the agency in response to pressure to approve a boosters-for-all strategy without this clinical evidence in 2021. 

“If you don’t recommend, then the consequence of that in many states is that you can’t walk into a pharmacy and get one,” Warren said. “It means insurance companies don’t have to cover the $200 or so cost. As Senator Dr. Cassidy said, you are effectively denying people vaccines.”
“We’re not going to recommend a product for which there’s no clinical data for that indication,” Kennedy replied. “Is that what I should be doing?”
“What you should be doing is honoring your promise that you made when you were looking to get confirmed in this job. That is, you promised that you would not take away vaccines from anyone who wanted them,” Warren said. “You just changed the classification of the COVID vaccine.”
“I’m not taking them away from people, Senator,” Kennedy replied.
Kennedy criticized Warren for accepting donations from the pharmaceutical industry. Warren received $818,997 from employees or political action committees affiliated with the pharmaceutical industry — but not from the companies themselves — during the 2020 election cycle, according to OpenSecrets.

The hearing also occasionally delved into other more contentious topics where Kennedy diverges from many Republicans on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Chuck Grassley sought reassurance from Kennedy, a frequent critic of genetically modified crops, synthetic pesticides and their manufacturers, that he would let the U.S. Department of Agriculture lead regulation of agriculture. Kennedy agreed and added that he was working with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on certain priorities.

Kennedy also alleged the CDC buried evidence of an association between the Mumps, Measles and Rubella (MMR) vaccine and autism in children, which could land him in hot water with a broader coalition of lawmakers.

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International

US going back to the moon before Trump leaves office

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Quick Hit:

NASA Acting Administrator Sean Duffy has pledged that the United States will return to the Moon before President Donald Trump leaves office, vowing that America will beat China in what he called “the second space race.”

Key Details:

  • Duffy, who also serves as Secretary of Transportation, made the remarks in a newly released video where he said, “We’re going back to the moon, and this time, when we plant our flag, we stay.”
  • The Artemis program, launched under Trump’s first term, will lead America’s lunar mission and ultimately aim for Mars.
  • The announcement comes as Congress faces a looming budget deadline, with another continuing resolution expected to avoid a shutdown at the end of the month.

Diving Deeper:

First reported by Fox News, NASA’s acting head Sean Duffy pledged to return American astronauts to the Moon before the end of President Trump’s second term. “China wants to get there, but we’re getting there first,” Duffy declared. “We will win the second space race.” The former Wisconsin congressman is the first NASA chief to explicitly frame America’s exploration efforts as a competition with Beijing.

Duffy emphasized that the Artemis program, named after Apollo’s twin sister in Greek mythology, will play a central role in advancing U.S. space exploration. The program, which successfully tested the Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft during Artemis I in 2022, will serve as a stepping stone to Mars. “Our program is called Artemis,” Duffy said. “And what we learn through Artemis gets us to Mars.”

The statement comes as NASA navigates uncertain funding. While the White House has proposed a sweeping 24% reduction to the agency’s budget, congressional sources told Fox News Digital that Artemis will remain a cornerstone of U.S. space ambitions. Congress recently passed a temporary spending bill to keep the government open, but lawmakers are preparing for another stopgap measure or potential shutdown later this month.

American astronauts have not walked on the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972, and Duffy’s remarks signal a dramatic effort to reassert U.S. leadership in space exploration. His dual role as transportation secretary and acting NASA administrator underscores the Trump administration’s emphasis on making Artemis a national priority.

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