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DO OR DO NOT: Canada is Missing in Action – Jeff Lawson of Cenovus Energy

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From Energy Now

By Jeff Lawson

After touring Cenovus operations in China and Indonesia, Jeff Lawson reflects on Asia’s energy reality and what it means for Canada.

My recent trip to our operations in China and Indonesia was an incredibly valuable chance to see world energy trends up close.

Witnessing the dynamism and ambition of our teams in those countries was inspiring, and I am grateful to our kind hosts. But I couldn’t escape the stark contrast with the situation at home.


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I should have returned feeling optimistic, but instead I came back feeling down. At the end of the day, seeing what other places in the world are doing only highlights one difficult truth: As an economic force, Canada is missing in action.

What most enriched my visit was meeting our own people. In China, our teams are incredibly happy working in the energy industry. They are motivated, because they see the purpose in their work every day, delivering the foundational products that lift communities out of poverty.

That same clarity of purpose is evident in the market itself.

In Indonesia our local production is fully consumed in-country. Overall, they face declining natural gas reserves, and with a growing population the need for imports is critical. There is a desire for Canadian supply. We just need to get it there.

From a global perspective, the LNG we are now finally shipping is still a drop in the bucket. For Canada, however, it represents a massive and vital step forward.

Meeting Asia’s demand for natural gas can become an even greater opportunity if we choose.

Thinking about natural gas demand throughout the world, we receive $12/Mcf for our natural gas in China. We only receive $1-2/Mcf in Canada (pundits will say that is optimistic), even though we have abundant Canadian supply. Our limitations are infrastructure and offtake facilities.

It’s a competitive world. Markets around the world desire what we provide, whether that’s oil and gas, minerals, or agriculture.

Yet, here at home, some people seem unable to grasp this.

The Trans Mountain Expansion Project took a decade and more than $35 billion to build.

We still face a host of policies that box our energy industry in. It’s the Emissions Cap that creates fundamental uncertainty. It’s the North Coast tanker ban that limits our market reach. It’s the cumulative weight of policies like the methane regulations and industrial carbon tax that makes it nearly impossible to allocate capital with confidence.

And the world now sees Canada as a difficult and unpredictable place to do business. Investor capital is mobile, and it will flow to jurisdictions that provide clarity and predictability.

There are fewer burdens and lower costs involved in moving our product south to the United States, and the U.S. is a key consumer of our energy products. But while that path is easier, and existing pipelines can be expanded, it is not a long-term strategy for national strength if egress remains constrained.

Over-reliance on a single customer leaves us vulnerable, as we have learned within the last year. If Canada wants to become stronger and truly diversify for the long-run, we have to drive to tidewater.

Recent messages from political leaders have been correct, but the action hasn’t yet followed.

This isn’t about slowly moving impediments out of the way; this is about deeper, more effective change that enables us to compete, backed by genuine federal-provincial alignment.

How we decide to compete with the rest of the world, or not, is up to us. As the saying goes, “Do or do not, there is no try.” Saying we’re trying is not getting us there.


Jeff Lawson is Executive Vice-President, Corporate Development & Chief Sustainability Officer at Cenovus Energy.

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Energy

US oil production reached record-high 13.6 million barrels a day in July

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From The Center Square

By 

The United States produced a record-high 13.6 million barrels of crude oil per day in July, up from 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in June, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

U.S. crude oil production in July was higher than previously estimated, prompting the agency to raise the starting point of its forecasts for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. The agency now projects U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026. For the remainder of 2025, this represents a 100,000 b/d increase from the agency’s August forecast, while 2026 oil production was projected 200,000 b/d higher.

The agency also raised its forecasts of crude oil production in the Gulf of America in 2025 and 2026, noting that some offshore drilling projects are ramping up output faster than expected.

The EIA expects global production of crude oil and petroleum products to increase through 2026, leading to continued growth in international inventories. The agency projects this inventory growth will put downward pressure on global oil prices, with benchmark Brent crude declining to an average of $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and to $52 per barrel in 2026. Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $68 per barrel in September.

The EIA said a key uncertainty in its forecast is the pace at which China continues to purchase oil to put into storage. If China continues to build inventory at the pace estimated in recent months, crude oil prices could be higher than now forecast, the agency said.

The agency projects U.S. dry natural gas production will reach 107 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, up 1.0 Bcf/d or about 1% from the EIA’s previous forecast. U.S. dry natural gas production in 2024 averaged approximately 103.5 Bcf/d, according to the agency.

The market price of natural gas at the Henry Hub in Louisiana is expected to rise from an average of $3 per million Btu in September to $4.10 per million Btu in January 2025, according to the EIA’s forecast. The agency expects the Henry Hub price in January will be 50 cents lower than was projected in September, primarily because U.S. gas production will be higher than previously expected. Early Wednesday, the spot price for natural gas at the Henry Hub was at $3.38 per million Btu.

The EIA projects U.S. LNG export capacity will increase by 5 Bcf/d in the remainder of 2025 and in 2026 as production continues to ramp up at the Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana and the Corpus Christi plant in Texas. The additional capacity should increase total U.S. LNG exports to 15 Bcf/d in 2025 and to 16 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 12 Bcf/d in 2024, the agency said.

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Alberta

‘Visionary’ Yellowhead Pipeline poised to launch Alberta into the future

Published on

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Grady Semmens

Heartland leaders welcome proposed new natural gas connector

As a lifelong farmer, entrepreneur and community leader, Alanna Hnatiw knows first-hand the crucial role energy plays in a strong and diverse economy.

The mayor of Sturgeon County, a sprawling rural municipality northeast of Edmonton, Hnatiw has spent much of the last decade working to protect its agricultural roots while building new industries that support the jobs and services families and businesses rely on every day.

Hnatiw says there is widespread appreciation among the county’s 20,000 residents for the opportunities afforded by the province’s oil and gas resources. That’s why she joined other leaders in Alberta’s Industrial Heartland region to applaud a major new natural gas pipeline planned for the area.

“Natural gas is an integral to all the industrial operations in Sturgeon County and the surrounding area. It goes beyond just burning it to turn turbines, it is the feedstock for all kinds of value-added processing. From fertilizer and plastics to petrochemicals and hydrogen, natural gas is the lynchpin for us into the future,” she said.

Filling growing demand

Hnatiw is one of more than a dozen community and industry leaders who sent letters of support to the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) last year endorsing ATCO Energy Systems’ proposed Yellowhead Pipeline project.

The project achieved a significant milestone in August when the AUC approved ATCO’s application determining the pipeline is needed.

The largest infrastructure investment in the company’s history, the 230-kilometre pipeline from Peers to Fort Saskatchewan will transport more than 1.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day when operational in late 2027.

For context, Alberta produced about 11 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas in 2024, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator.

Proposed route map of the Yellowhead Pipeline. Map courtesy ATCO

The Yellowhead Pipeline will boost deliveries to the greater Edmonton area as demand continues to grow for power generation, manufacturing, petrochemical processing and residential use.

Industrial customers have reserved 90 per cent of the pipeline’s capacity to meet their future needs.

This includes Dow Chemical, which plans to build an $8.9-billion net-zero ethylene processing facility in Fort Saskatchewan, Heidelberg Materials’ Edmonton facility that aims to be the world’s first full-scale cement plant equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and McCain Foods, which requires more natural gas for a planned expansion of its French fry factory in Coaldale.

Prosperity driver

Edmonton Global CEO Malcolm Bruce described the Yellowhead Pipeline as a “visionary” infrastructure project in his letter of support to the AUC.

“The [project] will create jobs, enable billions in new investment and drive Alberta’s hydrogen roadmap and natural gas vision and strategy.”

ATCO’s projections show the pipeline will generate substantial economic benefits. The company estimates that during construction, it will support 12,000 jobs and contribute $1.6 billion per year to Alberta’s economy.

Once in operation, the pipeline is expected to support 23,700 jobs per year and add $3.9 billion annually to Alberta’s GDP.

For Sturgeon County, the project also provides much-needed certainty that natural gas will be available for the $30 billion in new industrial investments the region is hoping to attract in the coming years.

Future plans

The municipality is already home to major operations including the NWR Sturgeon Refinery and Nutrien fertilizer plant, both of which capture carbon dioxide emissions that are transported through the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line for deep underground storage near Clive, Alberta.

Hnatiw said future development may include hydrogen production with CCS, petrochemical processing, gas-fired power plants and large-scale data centres.

“With our operations running near capacity right now, this new pipeline helps alleviate the uncertainty around gas supplies for industrial developers,” Hnatiw said.

The county’s industrial goals are inextricably tied to ensuring its farming sector continues to flourish, she said.

“Eighty per cent of our land base is agricultural, but it only accounts for one per cent of our budget as far as taxes go, so we need our industrial residents to support our rural way of life,” she said.

“We don’t want people to have to leave our community to make a living. We want a future that is full of opportunity, and one that is also sustainable for the families that produce our food, our fuel, and all the other value-added products we can provide.”

ATCO’s next step is to file for AUC approval to build the pipeline later this year. The company expects construction to begin in 2026.

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