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Despite recent bail reform flip-flops, Canada is still more dangerous than we’d prefer

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The Audit

 David Clinton

Our Criminal Justice System Is Changing

58 percent of individuals sentenced to community supervision had at least one prior conviction for a violent offence. 68 percent of those given custodial sentences were similarly repeat offenders. In fact, 59 percent of offenders serving custodial sentences had previously been convicted at least 10 times.

Back in 2019, the federal Liberals passed Bill C-75, “An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Youth Criminal Justice Act and other Acts”. Among other things, the law established a Principle of Restraint that required courts to minimize unnecessary pre-trial detention. This has been characterized as a form of “catch and release” that sacrifices public safety in general, and victims’ rights in particular on the altar of social justice.

I’m no lawyer, but I can’t see how the legislation’s actual language supports that interpretation. In fact, as we can see from the government’s official overview of the law, courts must still give serious consideration to public safety:

The amendments…legislate a “principle of restraint” for police and courts to ensure that release at the earliest opportunity is favoured over detention, that bail conditions are reasonable, relevant to the offence and necessary to ensure public safety, and that sureties are imposed only when less onerous forms of release are inadequate.

So unlike in some U.S. jurisdictions, Canadian courts are still able use their discretion to restrict an accused’s freedom. That’s not to say everyone’s always happy with how Canadian judges choose to use such discretion, but judicial outcomes appear to lie in their hands, rather than with legislation.

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Arguably, C-75 did come with a “soft-on-crime” tone (in particular as the law relates to certain minority communities). But even that was mostly reversed by 2023’s Bill C-48, which introduced reverse onus for repeat offenders and required judges to explicitly consider the safety of the community (whatever that means).

Nevertheless, the system is clearly far from perfect. Besides the occasional high-profile news reports about offenders committing new crimes while awaiting trials for previous offences, the population-level data suggests that our streets are not nearly as safe as they should be.

As far as I can tell, Statistics Canada doesn’t publish numbers on repeat offences committed by offenders free while waiting for trial. But I believe we can get at least part of the way there using two related data points:

  • Conviction rates
  • Repeat offender rates

Between 2019 and 2023, conviction rates across Canada on homicide charges for adults averaged 42 percent, while similar charges against youth offenders resulted in convictions in 65 percent of cases. That means we can safely assume that a significant proportion of accused offenders were, in fact, criminally violent even before reaching trial.

We can use different Statistics Canada data to understand how likely it is that those accused offenders will re-offend while on pre-trial release:

58 percent of individuals sentenced to community supervision (through either conditional sentences or probation) had at least one prior conviction for a violent offence. 68 percent of those given custodial sentences were similarly repeat offenders. In fact, 59 percent of offenders serving custodial sentences had previously been convicted at least 10 times.

Also, in the three years following a term of community supervision, 15.6 percent of offenders were convicted for new violent crimes. For offenders coming out of custodial sentences, that rate was 30.2 percent.

In other words:

  • Many – if not most – people charged with serious crimes turn out to be guilty
  • It’s relatively rare for violent criminals to offend just once.

Together, those two conclusions suggest that public safety would be best served by immediately incarcerating all people charged with violent offences and keeping them “inside” either until they’re declared innocent or their sentences end. That, however, would be impossible. For one thing, we just don’t have space in our prisons to handle the load (or the money to fund it). And it would also often trample on the legitimate civil rights of accused individuals.

This is a serious problem without any obvious pull-the-trigger-and-you’re-done solutions. But here are some possible considerations:

  • Implement improved risk assessment and predictive analytics tools to evaluate the likelihood of re-offending.
  • Improve the reliability of non-custodial measures such as electronic monitoring and house arrest that incorporate real-time tracking and immediate intervention capabilities
  • Improve parole and probation systems to ensure effective monitoring and support for offenders released into the community. (Warning: expensive!)
  • Optimize data analytics to identify trends, allocate resources efficiently, and measure the effectiveness of various interventions.

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Crime

Former Tim Walz appointee wanted for Minnesota shootings

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MXM logo MxM News

Quick Hit:

Vance Luther Boelter, a former appointee of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is wanted for Saturday’s targeted shootings that killed a state lawmaker and seriously injured another.

Key Details:

  • Authorities say Boelter first shot Sen. John Hoffman and his wife at their Champlin home before killing former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband in nearby Brooklyn Park.

  • Dressed in police-style gear, Boelter reportedly exchanged gunfire with officers before retreating from the scene and escaping.

  • Investigators found a list of targeted politicians, including Gov. Walz and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, as well as anti-Trump flyers reading “No Kings.”

Diving Deeper:

Law enforcement sources said Saturday that Vance Luther Boelter, 57, is the primary suspect in a string of targeted shootings that left former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband dead, and Sen. John Hoffman and his wife hospitalized. First reported by The Blaze, Boelter—a former appointee of both Gov. Tim Walz and former Gov. Mark Dayton—has not yet been apprehended.

The violence began early Saturday morning in Champlin, where the gunman reportedly posed as a police officer, dressed in black body armor and carrying a Taser, badge, and radio. Surveillance footage showed him knocking on the Hoffmans’ front door while wearing a cowboy hat and wielding a flashlight. The couple was shot multiple times and rushed into surgery. Both are expected to survive.

Shortly after the Champlin attack, police were dispatched to check on Hortman’s Brooklyn Park residence. According to Police Chief Mark Bruley, officers encountered what looked like a marked police vehicle in her driveway and a man in uniform exiting the home. When they approached, the man opened fire and retreated into the house. Officers returned fire but did not apprehend him. Hortman, 55, was found dead inside, alongside her husband. Their family dog, Gilbert, was also shot.

Police say Boelter left behind a manifesto naming 70 individuals—ranging from elected officials like Walz and Flanagan to abortion providers and Planned Parenthood affiliates.

The suspect also carried “No Kings” flyers, referencing a national day of protest against President Donald Trump. These same flyers were promoted online as part of anti-Trump demonstrations across the country on Saturday. In response to the shootings, the Minnesota State Patrol urged residents to stay home.

Boelter reportedly ran a private security firm, Praetorian Guard Security Services, which offered armed patrols for a steep monthly fee. He held appointments under two Democrat governors—first in 2016 on the Workforce Development Council, and again in 2019 when Gov. Walz tapped him for the state’s Workforce Development Board.

His apparent political motivations are under review, especially following recent controversy surrounding Hortman’s vote to strip state health benefits from illegal immigrants. Just days before her murder, Hortman had broken with her party to side with Republicans on the issue—providing the deciding vote after a tense budget standoff. “They’re right to be mad at me,” she told reporters after the vote, acknowledging anger within her caucus.

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Crime

Manhunt on for suspect in shooting deaths of Minnesota House speaker, husband

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Vance Luther Boelter, wanted in the murders of former Minnesota House speaker and her husband, shown in image from video Saturday.

From The Center Square

By

Second lawmaker, his wife also shot; suspect remains at large

Two Minnesota state lawmakers who are members of the Democratic-Farm-Labor Party were shot early Saturday by a person posing as a law enforcement officer just north of Minneapolis.

House Speaker Emeritus Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot and killed in what Gov. Tim Walz called a politically-motivated assassination. The suspect, identified as Vance Boelter, 57, remains at large and a manhunt is ongoing. Authorities said he no longer is in the area of the shootings.

 

Gov. Walz on Shooting of Minnesota Legislators: ‘An Unspeakable Tragedy’. 6/14/25

Source: Minnesota Department of Public Safety

“My good friend and colleague, Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, were shot and killed early this morning in what appears to be a politically-motivated assassination,” Walz said at a news conference. “Our state lost a great leader, and I lost a dearest of friends.”

State Sen. John Hoffman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, and his wife also were shot about 2 a.m., and Hortman and her husband were found about 90 minutes later.

Walz said the Hoffmans were each shot multiple times but he was hopeful for their recovery.

Law enforcement issued a shelter-in-place order for an area around Edinburgh Course that continued into the hours Saturday but has since been lifted. The suspect was seen wearing blue pants, a blue shirt, body armor, and reportedly driving a dark SUV with lights meant to make it appear like a police vehicle.

The suspect, Boelter, was appointed by Walz to serve on the Governor’s Workforce Development Board in 2019. Various media outlets reported that he is the director of Praetorian Guard Security Services, where he had access to police-like security equipment. Media outlets also reported that Boelter had a list of about 70 names in his vehicle which included the lawmakers who were shot, other lawmakers and abortion providers.

State officials are encouraging residents to not attend “No Kings” protests at the state capitol and across Minnesota. “No Kings” flyers were found in the suspect’s vehicle, law enforcement said.

FNF The scene near a shooting of Minnesota lawmakers
Law enforcement at the scene of a shooting in Minneapolis

The “suspect exploited the trust of our uniforms, what our uniforms are meant to represent,” Public Safety Commissioner Bob Jacobson said. “That betrayal is deeply disturbing to those of us who wear the badge with honor and responsibility.”

According to authorities, the gunman allegedly escaped through a back door of Hortman’s house following an exchange of gunfire with police.

President Donald Trump also released a statement on X, posted by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“Our Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and the FBI are investigating the situation, and they will be prosecuting anyone involved to the fullest extent of the law,” Trump said. “Such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the United States of America. God Bless the great people of Minnesota, a truly great place!”

The FBI said it is offering a reward of up to $50,000 for information leading to the arrest of Boelter.

Drew Evans, superintendent of the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said Saturday that officers arrived at the Hortman residence as part of a routine check on lawmakers in the area and exchanged gunfire with the suspect, who managed to flee.

Brooklyn Park Police Chief Burley said officers knocked on the Hortmans door and were met by what appeared to be a police officer wearing police gear, a gun, a taser and a badge. Officers and the suspect exchanged gunfire in the home before the suspect fled out the rear of the house.

Burley also said the suspect was driving an SUV that looked like a police vehicle with lights. The car was impounded, and Burley said the suspect is on foot. He  encouraged citizens to not answer the door for police officers and instructed Brooklyn Park police officers to not approach citizens alone, only in groups of two or more.

Burley said several people have been detained, and police are looking for others of interest.

Burley said a manifesto was found in the suspect’s vehicle that identified several other lawmakers. Both Hoffman and Hortman were on the list of people found in the car, Evans said.

Life-saving efforts were given to the Hortmans at the scene, Evans said.

“This was an act of targeted political violence. Peaceful discourse is the foundation of our democracy.We don’t settle our differences with violence at gun point. We must all stand against political violence,” Walz, also a DFL party member, said. “This tragic act in Minnesota should serve as a reminder that democracy and debate is a the way to settle our differences and move to a better place.”

The shootings happened seven miles away from each other, and law enforcement officials have called both shootings “targeted.”

Law enforcement was dispatched to the homes of several other state lawmakers – both Democrats and Republicans – in the Twin Cities area for protection overnight. Those lawmakers were told not to answer the door if an officer comes to it, but confirm with 911 before answering.

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuhar, D-Minn., was shocked by the news.

“This is a stunning act of violence. I’m thankful for all the law enforcement who are responding in real time. My prayers are with the Hortman and Hoffman families. Both legislators are close friends and devoted to their families and public service,” Klobuchar said on social media.

Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, called the shootings evil and asked for prayers.

“I am shocked and horrified by the evil attack that took place overnight. Please lift up in prayer the victims along with the law enforcement personal working to apprehend the perpetrator,” Demuth said on social media.

Walz activated the state emergency operations center early Saturday.

Hoffman was first elected to the Senate in 2012 and currently chairs the Human Services Committee.

Hortman was first elected in 2002 and was elected as speaker of the house in 2018. She is the current speaker emeritus.

She was also one of four DFL members to break with the party Monday and join Republicans to pass a state budget and end state health care services for noncitizens after a long and contentious special session.

The initial budget vote ended in a tie, before Hortman and three other DFL members broke ranks and joined Republicans to pass the legislation.

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