Business
China likely to escape scot-free in persecution of two Canadians
From the MacDonald Laurier Institute
By Charles Burton
Beijing propagandists are already using recent claims to vindicate the appalling treatment of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor
There is a deep sadness to reports that Michael Spavor feels he was badly wronged by his fellow former political prisoner Michael Kovrig and, by extension, political officers at Canada’s embassy in Beijing and their masters in Ottawa.
Spavor reportedly wants millions in compensation from the Canadian government for its alleged complicity in his detention in his Chinese prison ordeal. If this ends up in court, Kovrig and his superiors would have an opportunity to defend themselves against these allegations, but Beijing propagandists are already using them to vindicate the appalling treatment of Kovrig and Spavor — a gross violation of international law — by a ruthless regime that arrested them to pressure Canada into releasing Chinese Communist Party figure Meng Wanzhou from house arrest in Vancouver.
While few specifics are known about Spavor’s claims, media reports depict a connection to Kovrig’s former job at Canada’s embassy in Beijing, and later with the International Crisis Group think tank, roles in which he would allegedly meet with people in China, engage them in his fluent Mandarin, and mine the conversations for nuggets of insight into China’s political or economic affairs.
Chinese authorities, of course, don’t like such activities. One expects that Kovrig and his superiors, both in government and the ICG, would have been well aware that this type of work would irritate Beijing, thus the danger of arbitrary detention on trumped-up charges was always there whenever he visited China without the protection of a diplomatic passport. And so it was.
One particularly troubling aspect of this sort of activity is the risk it presents to people who might unknowingly be sources for these information-gathering practices. Apparently Spavor and Kovrig routinely got together for drinks and sessions of good-humoured conversation. But friendships with diplomats imply that observations shared in a bar can end up the next morning in a report to Ottawa, and on to the Five Eyes. Was this possibility lost on Spavor? Was Kovrig perhaps not as forthcoming as he could have been about the full dimensions of their chats?
And there is always the possibility that China’s Ministry of State Security has access to Canadian diplomatic communications, which led them to open a file on the two.
Spavor ran a business, Paektu Cultural Exchange, that facilitated sports, cultural, tourism and business exchanges with North Korea. These pricey tours necessitated the transfer of badly-needed foreign currency into North Korea, arguably helping to enable the repressive Pyongyang regime. Perhaps more intriguing, in the course of his work Spavor developed an unlikely rapport with the third-generation Kim family dictator, Kim Jong Un, and was photographed jet-skiing and drinking cocktails with him on a private yacht. It is very plausible that China strongly disapproved of their junior proxy Korean communist dictator cavorting with non-Chinese foreign friends, hence his arrest.
Troublingly, Canadians — who were transfixed and infuriated by the two Michaels’ incarceration — have had little news about Kovrig and Spavor’s China nightmare since their sudden release in September 2021, just hours after Canada released Meng. One wonders if Ottawa really did enough to incentivize China’s Communist authorities to send them home sooner, or if there were other factors in Canada’s murky relationship with Beijing that took priority over what was perhaps downplayed behind closed doors as just another consular matter, one of many that are de facto subordinated to trade and political interests.
We may never see any Global Affairs Canada officials or former diplomats giving public evidence in a Canadian court to defend against Spavor’s accusation. To be sure, much of what goes on between Canada and China — indeed, within our own government internally — is kept from us by the secretive walls of the Security of Information Act.
Perhaps Spavor will be given a big whack of taxpayer money in an out-of-court settlement laced with ironclad nondisclosure provisions. One thing is for sure though. The Chinese authorities who so brutally persecuted him will, as usual, get off scot-free.
Charles Burton is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, non-resident senior fellow of the European Values Center for Security Policy in Prague, and former diplomat at Canada’s embassy in Beijing.
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss, Tegan Hill and William Dunstan
Next week, the Carney government will table its long-awaited first budget. Earlier this year, Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a federal spending review to find $25 billion in savings by 2028. Even if the government meets this goal, it won’t be enough to eliminate the federal deficit—projected to reach as high as $92.2 billion in 2025/26—and start paying down debt. That means a substantial amount of taxpayer dollars will continue to flow towards federal debt interest payments, rather than programs and services or tax relief for Canadians.
When a government spends more than it raises in revenue and runs a budget deficit, it accumulates debt. As of 2024/25, the federal and provincial governments will have accumulated a total projected $2.3 trillion in combined net debt (total debt minus financial assets).
Of course, like households, governments must pay interest on their debt. According to our recent study, the provinces and federal government expect to spend a combined $92.5 billion on debt interest payments in 2024/25.
And like any government spending, taxpayers fund these debt interest payments. The difference is that instead of funding important programs, such as health care, these taxpayer dollars will finance government debt. This is the cost of deficit spending.
How much do Canadians pay each year in government debt interest costs? On a per-person basis, combined provincial and federal debt interest costs in 2024/25 are expected to range from $1,937 in Alberta to $3,432 in Newfoundland and Labrador. These figures represent provincial debt interest costs, plus the federal portion allocated to each province based on a five-year average (2020-2024) of their share of Canada’s population.
For perspective, it’s helpful to compare debt interest payments to other budget items. For instance, the federal government estimates that in 2024/25 it will spend more on debt interest costs ($53.8 billion) than on child-care benefits ($35.1 billion) or the Canada Health Transfer ($52.1 billion), which supports provincial health-care systems.
Provincial governments too spend more money on interest payments than on large programs. For example, in 2024/25, Ontario expects to spend more on debt interest payments ($15.2 billion) than on post-secondary education ($14.2 billion). That same year, British Columbia expects to spend more on debt interest payments ($4.4 billion) than on child welfare ($4.3 billion).
Unlike other forms of spending, governments cannot simply decide to spend less on debt interest payments in a given year. To lower their debt interest payments, governments must rein in spending and eliminate deficits so they can start to pay down debt.
Unfortunately, most governments in Canada are doing the opposite. All but one province (Saskatchewan) plans to run a deficit in 2025/26 while the federal deficit could exceed $90 billion.
To stop racking up debt, governments must balance their budgets. By spending less today, governments can ensure that a larger share of tax dollars go towards programs or tax relief to benefit Canadians rather than simply financing government debt.
Jake Fuss
Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute
Tegan Hill
William Dunstan
President Trump declared “we have a deal” Thursday after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, describing their nearly two-hour summit as “a 12 out of 10.” Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters the two leaders reached a sweeping agreement to stabilize trade relations and address the deadly fentanyl crisis. “We have a deal. Now, every year we will renegotiate the deal,” Trump said. “But I think the deal will go on for a long time.”
According to Trump, Xi agreed to suspend for one year China’s export restrictions on products made with rare-earth and critical minerals — materials essential to the production of semiconductors, batteries, and high-tech magnets. “There’s no roadblock at all on rare earth,” he said. “It’s a one-year deal that I think will be very routinely extended.” In exchange, Trump said the U.S. would lower the average tariff rate on Chinese imports from 57.6% to 47.6%. Trump emphasized that Xi also committed to intensifying China’s crackdown on fentanyl exports, which have been a major driver of overdose deaths in the United States. “We agreed he’s going to work very hard to stop the flow,” Trump said. “I think you’re going to see a big difference.”
Beijing also pledged to resume “tremendous” purchases of American soybeans, reversing its earlier retaliatory halt. In a Truth Social post later Thursday, Trump said China had additionally agreed to begin purchasing U.S. oil and gas, noting that “a very large-scale transaction may take place concerning the purchase of oil and gas from the Great State of Alaska.” The president confirmed that Taiwan was not discussed during the meeting but said both sides talked about working together to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. “We didn’t really discuss the Russian oil,” he added. “We discussed working together to see if we can get that war finished.”
The meeting, held at a South Korean air base, marked the first in-person exchange between Trump and Xi since his return to the White House. The two leaders greeted each other warmly, with Xi telling Trump, “Great pleasure to see you again.” Xi praised Trump’s leadership, saying, “China’s development goes hand in hand with your vision to make America great again,” and added that the two nations “are fully able to help each other succeed and prosper together.” Much of Thursday’s agreement builds upon a framework negotiated earlier this month in Kuala Lumpur between U.S. and Chinese trade teams.
Trump said he plans to visit China in April, calling the meeting “amazing” and “an outstanding group of decisions.” He did not say whether the pending TikTok deal was discussed. The renewed cooperation on fentanyl follows years of tension over China’s role in the U.S. opioid crisis. The CDC reports the drug has killed nearly 330,000 Americans in the past five years — roughly one in every 1,000 people. Trump has long pressed Beijing to stop the export of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl, arguing the problem is both moral and economic. “They make $100 million selling fentanyl into our country,” Trump said last week. “They lose $100 billion with the 20% tariff. It’s not a good business proposition.”
Trump left Thursday’s summit expressing confidence that the new arrangement marked a major step forward. “On the scale of 0 to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12,” he said. “It was an amazing meeting — and I think this deal will go on for a long time.”
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