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Canadians Will Pay For The Federal Budget Delay

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

In his latest commentary, Lee Harding slams the Carney government for skipping the federal budget while plowing ahead with tax cuts and spending sprees. With no clear plan and ballooning deficits, Canadians wonder how these promises will be paid for—hint: more debt. Harding warns that Ottawa’s ā€œfigure it out laterā€ approach is reckless, echoing past fiscal blunders that still haunt taxpayers today. Brace yourselves—this bill is coming.

The Carney government skipped the budget, but not the spending. And you’re on the hook

What’s better?

To spend and save without a plan, or to do so with accurate information and a focused strategy? The federal government has chosen the former, and one thing is certain: Canadians are going to pay.

Finance Minister FranƧois-Philippe Champagne announced on May 14 that the newly elected Carney government wouldn’t table a spring budget, opting instead to take things ā€œstep-by-step.ā€ Parliament will sit until June 20, but aside from the throne speech, the only stated priority is to lower the first income tax bracket from 15 per cent to 14. That would slightly lower federal income taxes for most working Canadians by reducing the rate on the first $55,000 of income, saving up to about $550 a year.

That sounds good—until you ask how it’s being paid for. Without a budget, Canadians have no clear picture of the trade-offs or long-term costs.

Tabling a budget is the government’s formal presentation of its financial plan to Parliament. It outlines spending priorities, revenue forecasts and deficit projections for the year ahead. Skipping this step is no small matter.

ā€œCut taxes first, figure out how to pay laterā€ isn’t the worst way to roll the dice, but it is far from the best. And we already know how Ottawa will cover the shortfall: more deficit spending. Canada hasn’t seen a balanced federal budget in nearly 20 years, and there’s no sign of one on the horizon.

Canadians will repay this tax cut with interest, sacrificing tomorrow’s services for today’s soundbites. This approach lacks fiscal prudence; doing it without a budget only compounds the recklessness.

Ottawa rarely fails to table a budget. The last time was during the height of the COVID pandemic in 2020. The results were disastrous: public debt surged and remains with us today. That was an unprecedented global crisis. There is no such emergency in 2025—only political calculation.

Carney claimed during the election campaign that proposed U.S. tariffs placed Canadians in ā€œthe greatest crisis of our lifetimes.ā€ Yet, days later, he stood alongside U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, smiling for photos and flashing a thumbs-up. For perspective, imagine Volodymyr Zelenskyy flying to Moscow to do the same with Vladimir Putin.

Some may argue the spring election left too little time before summer to draft a budget. But that doesn’t hold water. The Harper Conservatives won a majority on May 2, 2011, and still tabled a budget that spring. Carney’s cabinet includes many Trudeau-era veterans, and the Department of Finance remains staffed by experienced civil servants. The Liberals can and should produce a budget.

Parliament has even sat in July to pass urgent legislation. In 2020, MPs returned on July 20 to approve the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. In 1988, they stayed until July 7 to pass the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act. There is precedent—and there is time.

Even when the Liberals do present budgets, they’ve only deepened Canada’s fiscal hole. On Dec. 31, 2015, the net federal debt stood at $693.8 billion. By the end of 2024, it had climbed to $953.9 billion—an increase of 37.4 per cent in just nine years. These debts will likely never be repaid.

A 2022 Fraser Institute study estimated that a 16-year-old Canadian will pay $29,663 in income taxes over her lifetime just to cover interest on the federal debt—money that won’t fund services but simply keep creditors happy.

The Liberals’ current platform is thin on discipline. It includes income tax cuts worth $4.2 billion and a GST exemption on first-time home purchases, costing $383 million. But these are overshadowed by broader spending.

Last year’s budget outlined $538 billion in spending, with $40 billion funded through borrowing. By fall, that deficit had grown past $60 billion. This year’s platform will make matters worse by $46.8 billion, even after factoring in $20 billion in retaliatory tariff revenues.

If the government struggles to follow its own budget when it sets one, how much damage might it do without one? Plenty.

Parliament must still approve any new spending through supplementary estimates—requests for additional funds beyond what’s already authorized. But without the context of a full budget, MPs will be asked to approve billions in spending without a clear picture of what’s affordable.

What would be refreshing, though unlikely, is for non-Liberal MPs to approve only measures that strengthen the Canadian economy, military and policing. They could reject everything else and argue that responsible spending can’t occur without a formal financial plan.

Governments should manage national finances like a responsible household: with a clear budget and the discipline to live within their means. Unfortunately, the Carney government appears unwilling—or unable—to do either.

 

Lee HardingĀ is a research fellow with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.

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Alberta

Provincial pension plan may mean big savings for Albertans

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From the Fraser Institute

ByĀ Tegan Hill

Amid a growing separatist movement in Alberta, aĀ recent pollĀ commissioned by the Smith government found that 55 per cent of Albertans would vote to replace the ā€œCanada Pension Plan (CPP) with an Alberta Pension Plan that guaranteed all Alberta seniors the same or better benefits.ā€ That’s a massive surge in support since last year when support for a provincial plan was approximatelyĀ 22 per cent. And while there are costs and benefits to leaving the CPP, one thing is clear—Albertans could see savings under a provincial pension plan.

First, some context.

From 1981 to 2022 (the latest year of available data) Alberta workers contributedĀ 14.4 per centĀ (on average) of total CPP payments while retirees in the province received onlyĀ 10.0 per centĀ of the payments, due mainly to the province’s relatively high rates ofĀ employment,Ā higher averageĀ incomes andĀ younger populationĀ (i.e. fewer retirees).

Over that same period, Albertans’ net contribution to the CPP—the amount Albertans paid into the program over and above what retirees in Alberta received in CPP payments—wasĀ $53.6 billion. That’s more than six times more than British Columbia, the only other province that paid more into the CPP than retirees in the province received in benefits.

Some analystsĀ argueĀ that the surge in support for a provincial pension plan in Alberta is a result of strategic wording by the Smith government, specifying that seniors would be guaranteed the same or better benefits than under the current CPP.

It’s true, the wording of a poll question can impact the results. But according to the federal legislation that governs the CPP, any province that wishes to withdraw from the CPP in favour of a provincial plan must provideĀ comparableĀ benefits.

And in fact, several analyses show that due to Alberta’s demographic and economic factors, Alberta workers would receive the same retirement benefits under a provincial pension plan but pay lower contribution rates compared to what they currently pay, while contributions rates would have to increase for Canadians outside Alberta (excluding Quebec) to maintain the same benefits under the CPP.

More specifically, according to aĀ reportĀ commissioned by the Smith government, Alberta’s contribution rate, which is effectively a tax taken off paycheques, would fall from the base CPP contribution rate (9.9 per cent) to an estimated 5.85 per cent under a provincial pension plan. That would save each Albertan up to $2,850 in 2027 (the first year of the hypothetical Alberta plan). Again, this lower contribution rate (i.e. tax) would deliver the same benefit levels in Alberta as the current CPP.

Even under more conservative assumptions, Albertans would still pay a lower contribution rate while receiving the same benefits. According to economist Trevor Tombe’s estimate, Alberta’s contribution rate would drop toĀ 8.2 per centĀ and save Albertan workers approximatelyĀ $836Ā annually.

Support for a separate provincial pension plan is on the rise. And Albertans should know that under an Alberta plan, due to demographic and economic factors, they could pay a lower contribution rate yet receive the same level of benefits.

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Business

Big grocers rigged bread prices and most walked away free

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This articleĀ supplied byĀ Troy Media.

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Canada’s bread price-fixing scandal is one of the most damaging breaches of corporate trust in the history of Canadian food retail. The recent approval
of a $500-million class-action settlement by an Ontario court is a significant—though partial—step toward accountability. But the story isn’t over.

For over a decade, grocery giants secretly rigged the price of the country’s most basic food item, and most Canadians had no idea.

From 2001 to 2015, retailers and suppliers deliberately coordinated to raise the price of packaged bread, a basic household staple. This kind of illegal arrangement, known as price-fixing, occurs when supposed competitors agree to set prices rather than compete, driving up costs for consumers. Companies named in the lawsuit include Loblaw, its parent company George Weston Ltd., Metro, Sobeys, Walmart and Giant Tiger.

The impact on consumers was steep. Estimates suggest Canadians were overcharged by more than $5 billion over 14 years. The added cost was hidden in weekly grocery bills, largely unnoticed, but cumulatively devastating, especially for lower-income households that spend a greater share of their income on food.

The Competition Bureau, Canada’s competition watchdog, launched its investigation in 2015 after Loblaw came forward as a whistleblower under its Immunity and Leniency Program. In exchange for cooperating, Loblaw and George Weston were granted immunity from criminal prosecution. Their disclosure triggered years of scrutiny. In 2017, the companies attempted to contain the public backlash by offering $25 gift cards to 3.8 million Canadians, a gesture that cost $96 million and was widely seen as inadequate.

More recently, in 2023, Canada Bread pleaded guilty and paid a record $50-million fine for its role in the scheme. Although the violations occurred while it was owned by Maple Leaf Foods, it was Grupo Bimbo—which acquired Canada Bread in 2014—that took responsibility and cooperated with regulators. It was a rare show of accountability in a case otherwise marked by corporate silence.

Despite multiple companies being implicated, only Loblaw, George Weston and Canada Bread have admitted wrongdoing. No fines or sanctions have been imposed on the others. Walmart, Metro, Sobeys and Giant Tiger—all named by Loblaw—deny the allegations. Yet the investigation drags on nearly a decade later.

This imbalance in accountability has deepened public frustration. Many Canadians believe only those who stepped forward have faced consequences,
while others remain untouched. Or perhaps Loblaw threw its competitors under the bus in a calculated effort to save its own reputation?

The $500-million settlement—$404 million of it from Loblaw and George Weston —was approved by an Ontario judge earlier this month as ā€œfair, reasonable, and in the best interests of class members.ā€ The other $96 million reflects the earlier gift card program. What’s left to be paid amounts to about $13 per Canadian adult. After legal fees and administrative costs, 78 per cent of that will go to eligible Canadians outside Quebec, with the remaining 22 per cent reserved for Quebecers, pending a June 16 court hearing.

But for many, the money and the apologies do little to restore trust. If companies can quietly collude on something as essential as bread, it raises questions about what else might be going unnoticed in our grocery bills. The scandal exposed major weaknesses in Canada’s food retail system: toothless competition laws, limited pricing transparency and weak deterrents against collusion. These investigations take too long, and the damage to public confidence lingers long after the cheques are cashed.

Bread is not just a commodity. It symbolizes nourishment, affordability and stability. Manipulating its price isn’t just a legal violation; it’s a betrayal of public trust.

If this case is to be a turning point, it must lead to more than payouts. Canada needs stronger enforcement, faster investigations and real transparency in pricing. Without systemic reform, Canadians will remain vulnerable to the next coordinated ā€œmarket adjustment,ā€ hiding in plain sight on store shelves.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country

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