Energy
CANADA – U.S TRADE – A Deeper Dive on the Tos and Fros

From EnergyNow.ca
The biggest lesson from all this is that Canada must find a way to diversify its trade, especially when it comes to energy. We need to build more pipelines, we need to diversify our customer base
I cannot help myself. At my heart, I am a self professed nerd when it comes to data. With all of the headlines in Canada regarding the potential of 25% tariffs being levied on Canadian exports starting on February 1st, I wanted to understand for myself what the data actually looks like. Note that I only looked at 2023 as the information was readily available, it is reasonably clean (i.e. no significant COVID hangover) and the 2024 data won’t likely be available for a while.
Canada and the United States are significant trade partners. In 2023 Canada exported US$438 billion to the United States while the United States exported US$353 billion to Canada, resulting in Canada having a trade surplus with the United States of US$85 Billion and thus the (uninformed) consternation when it comes to current talk south of the border.
Looking at the top exports from Canada, I drew an arbitrary line at the top 20 exports. This was not to say that businesses that do less than this are any less important, rather I just wanted to make a chart that was actually readable. As one would expect, energy and auto lead the way, accounting for 43% of all of our exports to the United States in 2023.
United Nations COMTRADE database
However, as with all countries, we also import a tremendous amount as well. Why? Because in simplified terms it is good to focus on that which you do best, and have in abundance, and leave other aspects to other countries that are good at other things. As such, automotive as well as machinery, nuclear reactors and boilers account for 31% of the trade flow going north into Canada in 2023.
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United Nations COMTRADE database
When dealing with the border, it is important to remember that goods flow both ways, and the curious part as it pertains to oil is that despite Canada being awash in black gold, eastern Canadian refineries cannot access crude from the west, so Canada needs to export it to the US and re-import it to Canada. Weird. If only we had a pipeline that could do this…
I think it is also useful to look at the net balances, by category, to better understand the tos and fros of trade. Similar to previous charts, I made an arbitrary cut off line, this time at net exports exceeding US$1 billion in 2023. No real surprises here as energy dominates the landscape as Canada is a significant producer of oil and gas, and produces far more than it can consume internally and accounts for 76% of Canadian net exports to the United States.
United Nations COMTRADE database
In terms of net imports, the picture is more balanced, with the top two categories being machinery, nuclear, boilers and electrical, electronic equipment accounting for a significant portion of Canadian net imports (37%) from the United States.
United Nations COMTRADE database
Moreover, if you look at the breakdown of many of the components, and yes I am generalizing a bit, you will see that a lot of what we export are raw materials / base inputs, while what we import are value added finished products. As I have said many times, Canada is the proverbial resource bread basket that the rest of the world would crave to call its own.
If you exclude energy (mineral fuels, oils, distillation products) from the above analysis, you actually return to a more balanced trade picture between the two countries, and Canada actually is a small ($15 billion) net importer from the United States. Why do I think that is a fair way to look at things? The United States is a significant consumer of Canadian energy, and heavy oil in particular is something that Canada produces a lot of and is consumed by the complex refineries located in Minnesota, Indiana and in the U.S. Gulf Coast. If you want to learn more about this, I strongly encourage you to follow Rory Johnston as he does some brilliant deep dive analysis on this sort of topic and others.
At the end of the day, if the Trump administration really is about “fairness” in trade, we need calmer minds to prevail on this topic, as the data shows that the trade relationship is fair, and Canada is a valued (and economical) trade partner. I have my own suspicions that this issue extends beyond trade deficits and even beyond the issues he has also cited of illegal immigration and flows of fentanyl, and could even be as simple as “I am doing this, because I can, and I will do whatever I can to benefit my country.” Is this rational and fair? No.
The biggest lesson from all this is that Canada must find a way to diversify its trade, especially when it comes to energy. Canada’s need to build more pipelines, needs to diversify it’s customer base, and needs to start acting like a country that is looking out everyone, not just it’s own self interest.
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Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Business
Natural gas pipeline ownership spreads across 36 First Nations in B.C.

Chief David Jimmie is president of Stonlasec8 and Chief of Squiala First Nation in B.C. He also chairs the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group. Photo courtesy Western Indigenous Pipeline Group
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Stonlasec8 agreement is Canada’s first federal Indigenous loan guarantee
The first federally backed Indigenous loan guarantee paves the way for increased prosperity for 36 First Nations communities in British Columbia.
In May, Canada Development Investment Corporation (CDEV) announced a $400 million backstop for the consortium to jointly purchase 12.5 per cent ownership of Enbridge’s Westcoast natural gas pipeline system for $712 million.
In the works for two years, the deal redefines long-standing relationships around a pipeline that has been in operation for generations.
“For 65 years, there’s never been an opportunity or a conversation about participating in an asset that’s come through the territory,” said Chief David Jimmie of the Squiala First Nation near Vancouver, B.C.
“We now have an opportunity to have our Nation’s voices heard directly when we have concerns and our partners are willing to listen.”
Jimmie chairs the Stonlasec8 Indigenous Alliance, which represents the communities buying into the Enbridge system.
The name Stonlasec8 reflects the different regions represented in the agreement, he said.
The Westcoast pipeline stretches more than 2,900 kilometres from northeast B.C. near the Alberta border to the Canada-U.S. border near Bellingham, Wash., running through the middle of the province.

It delivers up to 3.6 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas throughout B.C. and the Lower Mainland, Alberta and the U.S. Pacific Northwest.
“While we see the benefits back to communities, we are still reminded of our responsibility to the land, air and water so it is important to think of reinvestment opportunities in alternative energy sources and how we can offset the carbon footprint,” Jimmie said.
He also chairs the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group (WIPG), a coalition of First Nations communities working in partnership with Pembina Pipeline to secure an ownership stake in the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system.
There is overlap between the communities in the two groups, he said.
CDEV vice-president Sébastien Labelle said provincial models such as the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) and Ontario’s Indigenous Opportunities Financing Program helped bring the federal government’s version of the loan guarantee to life.
“It’s not a new idea. Alberta started it before us, and Ontario,” Labelle said.
“We hired some of the same advisors AIOC hired because we want to make sure we are aligned with the market. We didn’t want to start something completely new.”
Broadly, Jimmie said the Stonlasec8 agreement will provide sustained funding for investments like housing, infrastructure, environmental stewardship and cultural preservation. But it’s up to the individual communities how to spend the ongoing proceeds.
The long-term cash injections from owning equity stakes of major projects can provide benefits that traditional funding agreements with the federal government do not, he said.
Labelle said the goal is to ensure Indigenous communities benefit from projects on their traditional territories.
“There’s a lot of intangible, indirect things that I think are hugely important from an economic perspective,” he said.
“You are improving the relationship with pipeline companies, you are improving social license to do projects like this.”
Jimmie stressed the impact the collaborative atmosphere of the negotiations had on the success of the Stonlasec8 agreement.
“It takes true collaboration to reach a successful partnership, which doesn’t always happen. And from the Nation representation, the sophistication of the group was one of the best I’ve ever worked with.”
Alberta
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Discusses Moving Energy Forward at the Global Energy Show in Calgary

From Energy Now
At the energy conference in Calgary, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith pressed the case for building infrastructure to move provincial products to international markets, via a transportation and energy corridor to British Columbia.
“The anchor tenant for this corridor must be a 42-inch pipeline, moving one million incremental barrels of oil to those global markets. And we can’t stop there,” she told the audience.
The premier reiterated her support for new pipelines north to Grays Bay in Nunavut, east to Churchill, Man., and potentially a new version of Energy East.
The discussion comes as Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government are assembling a list of major projects of national interest to fast-track for approval.
Carney has also pledged to establish a major project review office that would issue decisions within two years, instead of five.
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