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Calgary has a 50% higher property crime rate than Phoenix

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From the Fraser Institute

By Livio Di Matteo

The rate of property crimes per person in Calgary is 50 per cent higher than in Phoenix, and Lethbridge has the highest rate of property crime of any large urban area in Canada, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Albertans are no doubt aware that the rate of property crimes in the province’s biggest cities is on the rise, but they might not know how bad it’s become relative to American cities to the south,” said Livio Di Matteo, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Comparing Recent Crime Trends in Canada and the US.

The study examines crime rates of large urban areas with 100,000 people or more, known as Census Metropolitan Areas in Canada and Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S.

Using the maximum annual crime rate from 2019 to 2022 (the most recent years of comparable date), Lethbridge had the highest rate of property crimes (e.g., burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft) of all Canadian cities while Kelowna, BC ranked 2nd.

Both Lethbridge and Calgary ranked higher than Las Vegas for property crime, while Lethbridge also ranked higher than Denver, Salt Lake City, Utah, and Los Angeles, California.

Winnipeg, Manitoba is Canada’s most-violent city with the highest per person rate of violent crimes (murder, robbery, and assault with a weapon) of all Canadian urban areas. Crucially, Winnipeg ranked 18th out of all 334 urban areas in Canada and the U.S.

“Crime rates in Alberta’s largest cities, while still historically low, are on the rise and should be of greater concern for both citizens and policymakers,” Di Matteo said.

Comparing Recent Crime Trends in Canada and the United States

  • This study examines total property and total violent crimes, adjusted for population, across 36 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and over 300 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The data reported covers the 2019 to 2022 period.
  • In general, after decades of decline, recent years have seen increases in crime rates in both Canada and the United States, though by historic standards rates remain low.
  • For violent crimes, the top (worst) ranked city was Memphis, TN (1,311 per 100,000) while the top ranked Canadian city was Winnipeg, which ranked 18th overall at 675 per 100,000.
  • Twenty-five percent of Canadian CMAs are in the top half of Canada-U.S. violent crime rankings with the remaining 75 percent in the bottom half.
  • For property crime, the top (worst) ranked city was Lethbridge, AB at 5,521 per 100,000. Kelowna, BC ranked second highest (4,932 per 100,000). Pueblo, CO at 4,911 per 100,000 ranked third overall and was the highest (worst) ranked U.S. city.
  • While Canadian CMAs make up roughly 10 percent of the CMAs and MSAs used in this ranking, when it comes to property crime rates, they account for 24 percent of the top (worst) 10 percent of the property crime rankings whereas in the case of violent crimes they accounted for only 3 percent of the cities in the top 10 percent.
  • There is a distinct east-west divide in the data in that eastern Canadian cities, particularly in Quebec, tend to have lower rates (adjusted for population) of both violent and property crime compared to the west. A similar east-west trend holds in the United States.

    Livio Di Matteo

    Professor of Economics, Lakehead University

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Courageous Discourse

No Exit Wound – EITHER there was a very public “miracle” OR Charlie Kirk’s murder is not as it appears

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By John Leake

Turning Point Spokesman: “No Exit Wound a Miracle”

Charlie Kirk Show producer Andrew Kolvet repeats extremely dubious claim purportedly made by “the surgeon who operated on Kirk.”

Monday Blaze Media (relatable with Allie Beth Stuckey) reported the following:

Turning Point USA spokesman and executive producer of the “Charlie Kirk Show” Andrew Kolvet revealed new details about the shooting that even doctors are calling a miracle. According to Kolvet, the surgeon who operated on Kirk claimed that the high-velocity bullet was powerful enough to kill multiple large animals — and “should have gone through” his body. But for some reason, Kirk’s body was able to stop it.

“I want to address some of the discussion about the lack of an exit wound with Charlie,” Kolvet wrote in a post on X.

“The fact that there wasn’t an exit wound is probably another miracle, and I want people to know,” Kolvet continued, explaining that he had spoken with the surgeon who worked on Charlie in the hospital.

“He said the bullet ‘absolutely should have gone through, which is very very normal for a high powered, high velocity round. I’ve seen wounds from this caliber many times and they always just go through everything. This would have taken a moose or two down, an elk, etc,’” he recalled.

“But it didn’t go through. Charlie’s body stopped it,” he added.

When he mentioned to the doctor that there were “dozens of staff, students, and special guests standing directly behind Charlie” when he was shot, the doctor reportedly replied, “It was an absolute miracle that someone else didn’t get killed.”

“His bone was so healthy and the density was so so impressive that he’s like the man of steel,” Kolvet recalls the doctor saying.

This is not a credible statement, and it raises a number of concerns.

It strikes me as very perplexing that a “surgeon operated on Kirk,” because in the video of the shooting, Charlie reacted with a decorticate posture—that is, an abnormal body posture characterized by flexion of the upper limbs—caused by severe trauma to the central nervous system. This indicates that the bullet either directly struck his cervical spinal cord, or the shock wave of the supersonic bullet passing near his spinal cord traumatized it.

A 150-grain, .30-06 bullet’s energy at 150 yards from the muzzle varies by ammunition, but a common hunting cartridge has an estimated value of approximately 1,800-2,000 foot-pounds (with the bullet traveling at about 2500 feet per second). In other words, the .30 caliber (.30 inch diameter) metal projectile struck his neck with sufficient kinetic energy to move a 2,000 pound mass a linear distance of one foot.

If the bullet that struck Charlie’s cervical spinal cord was a .30-06 fired from 150 yards away, it would have:

1). Severed his spinal cord, killing him instantly.

2). Passed through his neck.

Note that the cervical vertebrae are supported by strong muscles and have high compressive strength, but are far too delicate to stop a .30-06 bullet traveling at 2,500 feet per second.

If ALL of the kinetic energy of the bullet was absorbed by Charlie’s neck, it would have done spectacular trauma to his neck, as distinct from producing the clean bullet hole visible in the video footage that ruptured his Carotid artery.

Though I appreciate that some may find a supernatural explanation to be consoling, it seems to me that the investigation should not rest on the this explanation.

As I wrote a few weeks ago: If I were investigating the murder, I would consider the hypothesis that Charlie was shot with a weapon equipped with a suppressor and loaded with a subsonic cartridge to further reduce the sound. I have seen footage of someone firing a rifle with this setup, and the shot was amazingly quiet. The effective range of such a weapon is about 100 yards or less, and the shooter must be very skilled.

However, such a setup could fire a subsonic projectile that would penetrate a human neck without passing through it. In this scenario, the actual assassin (firing the suppressed rifle) hypothetically coordinated the timing of his shot with someone else firing a normal (supersonic and loud) rifle cartridge into the air at the same time to create a distraction or red herring.

In a functioning society in which the people trust their authorities—including their medical examiners—it would be easy to discover what happened and to disclose at least a preliminary report that would satisfy most reasonable people. The trouble our Republic is facing now is that so many of us no longer trust our federal and state authorities to tell us the truth.

For example, we have strong grounds for suspecting that medical examiners are not diligently investigating (with the proper analytic methods) unexpected, fatal cardiac arrests in young people to determine if they were caused by vaccine-induced myocarditis.

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Business

Quebecers want feds to focus on illegal gun smuggling not gun confiscation

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By Nicolas Gagnon

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation released new Leger polling showing that half of Quebecers say the most effective way to reduce gun crime is to crack down on illegal gun smuggling from the United States, not a federal gun ban and confiscation.

“Law enforcement experts say the best way to make Canada safer is to stop illegal gun smuggling and Quebecers say exactly the same thing,” said Nicolas Gagnon, CTF Quebec Director. “It makes no sense to pour hundreds of millions into a confiscation that only takes guns from lawfully licensed gun owners.”

In 2020, the federal government launched its policy to confiscate thousands of so-called “assault-style” firearms from licensed gun owners. Ottawa recently announced a pilot project in Cape Breton to start taking firearms from individual owners.

The Leger poll asked Quebecers what they think is the most effective way to reduce gun crime. Results of the poll show:

  • 51 per cent say introducing tougher measures to stop the illegal smuggling of guns into Canada from the United States
  • 37 per cent say banning the sale and ownership of many different makes and models of guns along with a government buyback program
  • Six per cent say neither of these options
  • Seven per cent do not know

The results of the polls arrived as recorded remarks from Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree made headlines in September.

In a leaked audio recording, the minister suggested the confiscation program is being pushed in part because of voters in Quebec, while also expressing doubt that local police services have the resources to enforce it.

Police organizations have long warned Ottawa’s confiscation program is misguided. The RCMP union says it “diverts extremely important personnel, resources, and funding away from addressing the more immediate and growing threat of criminal use of illegal firearms.”

The program was first estimated to cost $200 million. Just providing compensation for the banned guns, not including administrative costs, could cost up to $756 million, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan have both publicly said that they would not cooperate with Ottawa’s gun ban. Premier François Legault has stayed silent on this issue.

“Quebecers have been clear: the real problem is illegal gun smuggling, not law-abiding firearms owners,” said Gagnon. “The police have also made it clear the gun confiscation will waste money that could be used to stop criminals from committing gun crimes.

“Legault needs to stand up for Quebec taxpayers and refuse to help implement Ottawa’s costly and ineffective confiscation scheme. The federal government needs to drop this plan and focus its resources on intercepting illegal guns at the border: that’s how you actually make communities safer.”

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