Without a thorough review, federal personnel spending could cost taxpayers upwards of $76 billion per year by the end of the decade, highlights the MEI in reaction to the latest report from the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).

“Federal priorities are determined by federal spending, and it is clear that Ottawa’s priority has been expanding the size and scope of government,” says Gabriel Giguère, senior policy analyst at the MEI. “If Prime Minister Carney is serious about returning to sound public finances, personnel spending will need to shrink, and fast.”

Total personnel spending is projected to reach $76.2 billion by 2029-2030, if nothing changes, according to the new PBO publication released this morning. This is up from $65.3 billion in 2023-24, a 16.7 per cent increase.

Average compensation is expected to reach $172,000 per full-time employee by 2029-2030.

When Prime Minister Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, came to power in 2015, personnel spending was $39.6 billion—a bit more than half of what it is today. Over the course of his tenure, the federal bureaucracy grew by over 100,000 employees.

Certain departments have grown substantially since 2015, including:

• Employment and Social Development Canada: +15,497
• Canada Revenue Agency: +17,257
• Public Services and Procurement Canada: +6,362

“New spending, programs, and taxes have gone hand in hand with the expansion of the federal workforce,” says Giguère. “If Ottawa is serious about cutting wasteful programs, it should begin by cutting the bureaucracies responsible for them.”

The C.D. Howe Institute recently projected that Prime Minister Carney’s first budget could feature a $92-billion deficit for 2025–2026.

Carney’s government has pledged to reduce spending by 15 per cent in select areas by the 2028–2029 fiscal year, following reductions of 7.5 per cent and 10 per cent in the two previous years, by shrinking departments and cutting waste.

In its prebudget submission, the MEI recommended that the federal government be more ambitious in carrying out this pledge. It called on Ottawa to reduce the federal bureaucracy by 17.4 per cent, mirroring the Chrétien reductions of the 1990s, which would eliminate 64,000 positions and save $10 billion a year.

Rolling back Employment and Social Development Canada, the Canada Revenue Agency, and Public Services and Procurement Canada to their 2015 levels could cut more than 39,000 full-time equivalent positions, halfway to that 64,000 goal.

“The fact that personnel has gone up with no measurable improvement in services is an indictment of the current system,” says Giguère. “Restoring balance means ensuring Canadians receive fair value for their taxes, and for that to happen, Ottawa needs to stop seeing the bureaucracy as a job creation scheme.”

* * *

The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.

This article supplied by Troy Media.

 By Sylvain Charlebois 

And rolling them back is his way of admitting it

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to roll back most counter-tariffs on Sept. 1 is more than welcome relief at the checkout. It’s an admission the tariffs never should have been imposed in the first place, and that consumers unfairly paid the price.

The rollback means lower grocery bills, greater choice for grocers and—most importantly—a brake on food inflation. The tariffs acted like the tide lifting all boats: when the price of orange juice, peanut butter or coffee jumped, it indirectly pushed prices elsewhere upward as grocers rebalanced their pricing.

As we enter the critical fall season, when demand for everyday staples like bread and dairy and prepared foods such as canned goods and ready-to-eat meals typically rises, removing artificial cost pressures will help keep food inflation in check.

But this move isn’t just about food prices. More to the point, it quietly acknowledges what many suspected: counter-tariffs were being applied to goods
that were technically exempt under the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the trade deal that replaced NAFTA. That made them not only harmful to consumers but a likely violation of Canada’s own obligations under the agreement. Few Canadians were aware of it, but they certainly felt it in their wallets. The rollback is not just an economic fix—it is a political and legal admission of error.

Carney did the right thing, and on balance, it was a good day for Canada. His decision reflects an understanding that the countertariffs were never about a direct trade war between Canada and the U.S. Instead, they were a response to a broader geopolitical shift an America First agenda from Washington aimed at reinforcing U.S. leverage globally, not targeting Canada specifically. By resetting the relationship with Washington, Carney is
prioritizing the bigger picture: CUSMA and broader North American integration. The rollback is a gesture of goodwill that acknowledges that reality.

That goodwill matters because Carney’s move also reflects a simple truth: we need to get along with the U.S. More than 70 per cent of our trade flows through the U.S. market. For food, the dependency is even deeper, with supply chains tightly interwoven across the border. Stability in this relationship directly influences the prices Canadians pay for groceries.

That’s what makes the current strain so dangerous. Canada is already facing one of its worst trade crises in a generation. The recent U.S. tariff hikes on Canadian agri-food products aren’t just policy wrinkles—they’re a gut punch. In that context, the rollback isn’t just symbolic—it’s urgent. It offers a timely response to mounting pressures on both farmers and consumers. If Ottawa fails to go further, Canadians will continue to pay the price.

Rolling back counter-tariffs is only a first step. Ottawa still has unfinished business. The costs of moving food across provinces remain unnecessarily high, with different rules on food and alcohol creating internal trade barriers that drive up prices. Removing these would improve efficiency and lower costs for consumers. Canada must also address escalating tensions with other key partners. China is a critical buyer of Canadian canola and pork; India is central to our pulse exports. Both relationships are strained and the food economy is feeling the consequences. A comprehensive strategy that recognizes both geography and geopolitics is needed.

For now, though, eliminating counter-tariffs sends the right signal: Canada is ready to reduce friction, strengthen North American cooperation and give consumers some long-overdue relief at the checkout.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.

Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.