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Majority of Ukrainians want war to end, even without total victory

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A new Gallup poll shows a dramatic shift in Ukrainian public opinion, with nearly seven in ten now saying the war with Russia should end through negotiations “as soon as possible.” Support for fighting until total victory has collapsed since 2022, even as skepticism remains high that peace will come soon.

Key Details:

  • Gallup found 69% of Ukrainians now favor an immediate push for negotiations to end the war — a complete reversal from 2022, when 73% wanted to fight until outright victory.
  • Just 24% now support fighting “to the bitter end,” while optimism about NATO membership is fading; more believe Ukraine will “never” join NATO than think it will happen within the next decade.
  • While 68% doubt the fighting will end within a year, most Ukrainians remain more hopeful about joining the EU, with only 18% saying it will never happen.

Diving Deeper:

Public opinion in Ukraine has undergone a stunning turnaround since Russia’s 2022 invasion, with a new Gallup poll showing most Ukrainians now want the war brought to a negotiated close as soon as possible. Sixty-nine percent of respondents said Ukraine “should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible,” up from just 22% in the war’s first year. By contrast, only 24% support continuing the fight until Ukraine achieves total victory, down sharply from 73% in 2022.

Gallup noted that the survey did not cover areas currently under Russian control — home to roughly 10% of Ukraine’s pre-war population — but found the shift in opinion was evident across all regions and demographics.

Despite the overwhelming appetite for talks, optimism that peace is near remains low. Only 5% said it was “very likely” the conflict would see a “lasting end” within 12 months, with 25% calling it very or slightly likely and 68% saying they believe such an outcome is unlikely.

Confidence in NATO membership has also declined sharply. For the first time since the war began, more Ukrainians believe their country will “never” join NATO than believe it will happen within ten years. Another quarter said it could take 10 years or more — including beyond 20 years — to gain membership. By comparison, in 2022, optimism about joining the alliance was nearly double today’s levels.

There is more optimism about the European Union. A clear majority believes eventual membership is coming, with only 18% saying it will “never” happen.

The polling comes as the United States and Russia edge toward potentially more substantive talks, with discussion of a direct meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin within the week. A proposed trilateral meeting that would also include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have been rejected by Moscow — a move that could stall progress and reinforce Trump’s skepticism that negotiations are yielding meaningful results.

The shift in Ukrainian sentiment puts public opinion at odds with the stated war aims of Zelensky and several European leaders, who continue to insist that the only acceptable outcome is reclaiming all territory recognized by the United Nations as part of Ukraine — including Crimea, which Russia has held for over a decade. In May, the European Union reiterated that it remains committed to this hardline goal, framing it as essential to any lasting settlement.

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International

Trump, Netanyahu inch closer to peace plan for Gaza

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From The Center Square

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There was a glimmer of optimism in Washington on Monday afternoon as President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to iron out a potential peace deal, bringing the nearly two-year war with Hamas to an end.

Trump laid out a 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza, calling for a “terror-free zone” in Gaza, redevelopment of the territory, and the return of all Israeli hostages, including the dead, within 72 hours of Israel accepting the agreement.

To oversee the success of the plan, the president says that if the plan is accepted, he will lead it.

“Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the ‘Board of Peace,’ which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of State to be announced, including former Prime Minister Tony Blair,” according to Trump’s plan.

“This body will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza. This body will call on best international standards to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment,” the plan continued.

The plan underscores that Hamas will have no role in the governance of Gaza, adding that regional partners will “ensure that Hamas, and the factions, comply with their obligations.” It also ensures that Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza.

However, Netanyahu issued a warning to Hamas if it decides to reject the deal.

“If Hamas rejects your plan…then Israel will finish the job by itself. This can be done the easy way or it can be done the hard way. But it will be done. We prefer the easy way, but it has to be done.”

While the two leaders appeared hopeful that the deal would lead to peace in the region, they declined to take questions from the press, stating that they wouldn’t comment until the deal had been signed.

Trump used the press conference to tout the Abraham Accords, one of the cornerstone achievements of his first administration. The president is optimistic that more nations will join the accords.

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Business

Dominic Barton’s Shadow Over $1-Billion PRC Ferry Deal: An Investigative Op-Ed

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Ottawa’s story never added up. When the Canada Infrastructure Bank pushed through a $1-billion loan to BC Ferries for vessels built at a Chinese state-owned shipyard, federal ministers claimed they were “dismayed” and blindsided. Chrystia Freeland even wrote a letter to the BC government citing national security concerns. In hindsight, she and her staff were engaged in political theatre, performing shock to deflect responsibility onto Premier David Eby.

Documents later showed Freeland’s own ministry of transport had been briefed six weeks before the public rollout. In one internal exchange, her staff admitted officials had received “a confidential heads-up” well in advance. Then came testimony from Housing and Infrastructure Minister Gregor Robertson — also responsible for the Infrastructure Bank — acknowledging the loan was already “inked” in March, before he supposedly raised concerns, a claim as hollow as Freeland’s staged outrage.

The $1-billion Canadian Infrastructure Bank loan to BC Ferries flows directly to China Merchants Industry Weihai — a dual-use shipyard central to Beijing’s military-civil fusion strategy. Critics have long warned that such contracts risk entangling Canadian taxpayers with Chinese state enterprises linked to the People’s Liberation Army.

Those concerns take on new urgency with fresh revelations from Australia. ABC News reported yesterday on a classified U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment showing that China’s commercial ferry fleet is being militarized for amphibious operations against Taiwan. These are not neutral passenger vessels but dual-use platforms modified to carry tanks and PLA troops. The timing of the four-ship build for BC Ferries, the nature of the shipyard, and the class of vessel all suggest that Canada could be indirectly bolstering Beijing’s invasion platform — and, at the very least, injecting Canadian funds into the industrial ecosystem driving the PLA’s buildup.

The nature of CIB’s involvement, and Ottawa’s actions that fit the pattern of an emerging cover-up, point to a deeper story that has been bubbling in the capital for nearly a decade: former McKinsey global director and Canadian ambassador to China Dominic Barton, his deep ties to Chinese state-owned and dual-use enterprises, and his founding role in the CIB.

Defensive “talking points” prepared for Gregor Robertson’s August 1, 2025 testimony provide a revealing glimpse. The records, obtained through freedom of information by The Bureauare mostly boilerplate answers. But two pages on the CIB’s structure show clearly what outside reporting has long established: the Bank carries Barton’s DNA, and the imprint of his McKinsey network continues to this day. That raises a plausible theory — that Canada’s pro-Beijing trade lobby, a circle of business leaders revolving around Barton, Sabia, McKinsey, and now Prime Minister Mark Carney, looks like the hidden hand guiding this supposedly arm’s-length deal.

The records that anchor this OpEd show the Infrastructure Bank’s story can be traced like a family tree. At the top is Dominic Barton. In 2016, while serving as McKinsey’s global managing director, he chaired the federal Advisory Council on Economic Growth. That council produced the blueprint for the Canada Infrastructure Bank — and McKinsey itself was paid as a consultant during its creation. Sitting beside Barton on the council was Michael Sabia, who would later become chair of the Bank in 2020 and today serves as chief of staff to Prime Minister Mark Carney.

As the Bank moved from paper to practice, Sabia’s role became pivotal. When he took over as chair, he pulled Barton back into the fold. In June 2020, Barton joined a “strategic refresh” meeting of the CIB. Emails later revealed that McKinsey staff had arranged the session so that “Dom” could “speak freely,” even though he was then serving as Canada’s ambassador to China.

The pattern deepened as new leadership arrived. In November 2020, Ehren Cory was appointed CEO. Cory, too, had worked at McKinsey. Around him, other alumni filled senior posts: Steve Robins, now head of strategy; Aneil Jaswal, director of strategic sectors; even Cory’s executive assistant came directly from McKinsey, according to notes prepared for Gregor Robertson’s August testimony and obtained by The Bureau.

Running alongside this McKinsey chain is a side branch that loops back into the heart of Ottawa. Sabia, Barton’s colleague from the Advisory Council, now serves as Mark Carney’s right hand in the Prime Minister’s Office.

Seen this way, the CIB is not just a Crown corporation with a neutral mandate. It is an institution shaped from the start by Barton’s hand, nurtured by Sabia, and still run day to day by McKinsey-trained managers. The government’s defensive claim — that McKinsey’s influence ended in 2017, as set out in notes for Robertson’s testimony — is impossible to believe. It is as false as Chrystia Freeland’s June 2025 letter to David Eby’s government.

The continuity of influence is not just structural — it’s personal. On June 23, 2020, while serving as ambassador to China, Barton joined a CIB “strategic refresh” meeting. He says it was at Sabia’s invitation. But emails tabled in committee show McKinsey staff helped arrange the call and even discussed limiting participants so “Dom” could “speak freely.” Pressed in Parliament during May 2023 testimony, Barton initially failed to disclose the meeting. Only after documents surfaced did he confirm it.

That evasiveness set off a bruising clash. Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis told him flatly: “We have testimony that you gave before, and that was false indeed.” She added: “Mr. Sabia, the former chair of the CIB, testified here on Tuesday that you participated in a McKinsey seminar, led by McKinsey, while you were ambassador — and you have now confirmed this information today.”

Garnett Genuis drove the point home: “Mr. Barton is clearly lying to this committee. We have the emails in black and white. It seems McKinsey was able to infiltrate the government and shape decision making. Your presence and close relationship with the government allowed that to happen.”

Three years earlier, Barton had faced an even higher-profile grilling before the Canada–China Committee — testimony with direct geographical and geopolitical relevance to the CIB’s mysterious $1-billion loan to CMC Weihai.

Back in 2020, Genuis pressed him on McKinsey’s advisory work for Chinese state-owned enterprises, including the China Communications Construction Company — sanctioned by the World Bank for corruption and implicated in Beijing’s militarized islands in the South China Sea. Barton ducked, dissembled, and insisted he was unaware.

“At the time you were in charge of McKinsey, from 2009, it’s my understanding that you advised almost two dozen Chinese state-owned companies. According to The New York Times, one of those companies was the China Communications Construction Company,” Genuis prodded. “When you signed the China Communications Construction Company as a client in 2015, they were still under World Bank sanctions because of the corruption and bid-rigging they engaged in in the Philippines.”

Next, the Conservative MP asked directly: “McKinsey was advising a company that was carrying out the Chinese government’s policy of building militarized islands in the South China Sea. Was it your position that those islands are a violation of international law?”

“What I would say is that I am not familiar at all with our being involved in designing the islands in the South China Sea,” Barton answered. “If you want to talk to someone at McKinsey to find out more information, I’m sure we’d be happy to get someone to talk to you about it.”

McKinsey did not return with information on China’s military action in the South China Sea — the very same theater where Beijing now threatens Taiwan with its civilian ferry buildup plan.

Genuis also asked: “Would you be prepared to submit to this committee a list of all of the Chinese state-owned companies that you did work for at McKinsey?”

“McKinsey’s pretty careful about client confidentialities,” Barton answered. “I’d be happy if there were some mechanism so that it isn’t in the public domain but that some people could look at it. I’m open to that.”

That list was never provided, based on The Bureau’s follow-up in Ottawa. Given the questions surrounding the CIB’s loan to fund CMC Weihai ferries, this lack of transparency takes on a more ominous colour.

The historical record of testimony, going back to the Genuis–Barton stand-off, now casts a long shadow. There is a clear through line to the questioning still to come for Carney’s responsible ministers in the BC Ferries deal — Chrystia Freeland and Gregor Robertson. After revelations that Freeland and her staff staged their supposed shock at the deal with a Chinese military-linked shipbuilder, Freeland has been recalled.

Savvy questioners will likely look beyond her — and above her — in their probing. The CIB, seeded by Barton, staffed by McKinsey alumni, and previously steered by Mark Carney’s chief of staff Michael Sabia, has financed a project that objectively strengthens Beijing’s naval-industrial complex. Who really profits, in conjunction with Beijing? Certainly not Canadian workers, shipbuilders, or citizens, who are left carrying the burden of their government’s deals with China.

This is not just about procurement missteps or potential conflicts of interest. It is the culmination of a decade of weak, negligent thinking on China’s military aggression — stretching from the South China Sea to Canada’s Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic coasts. Until Canadians confront Barton’s enduring imprint on the CIB, they will continue to discover — too late — that their money is underwriting Beijing’s rise.

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