By Geoff Russ
The EU-US trade deal includes provisions for American energy exports, including LNG that Canada could have supplied. Canada must not make the same mistakes in the Pacific.
The trade deal signed between the European Union and the United States is a slap in the face for Canadian energy. American oil, natural gas, and even nuclear fuel, are now slated to flow across the Atlantic to European buyers, as the bloc pushes to fully wean itself off Russian energy.
It should have been Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Atlantic coast.
Canada had every chance to build a thriving LNG industry on its East Coast. But short-sighted, hesitant government policy has consistently dismissed what has now proven to be a strong and viable business case.
The $750 billion energy trade deal between the EU and the US shows how costly that’s been.
Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau repeatedly said Atlantic LNG was never economically viable. He famously told a 2022 press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that there’s “never been a strong business case” for exporting Canadian LNG from the East Coast.
Trudeau cited distance and infrastructure challenges, saying Canadian gas was uneconomic for direct export to Europe. Trudeau’s dismissal led to Germany signing a 15-year LNG deal with Qatar later that same year, in the first reminder of what Canada missed out on.
Reality contradicts the former Prime Minister’s pessimism. European leaders, desperate for energy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, repeatedly approached Canada with LNG requests. Chancellor Scholz came to Canada, followed by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in 2023, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Polish President Andrzej Duda in 2024.
Each time they received vague assurances and non-commitments from Trudeau’s government. Europe’s need was real, urgent, and sustained, but Canada’s response was inadequate.
As the Fraser Institute pointed out in May 2024, transitioning coal-dependent countries like India to natural gas would achieve four times more global emission reductions than shutting down Canada’s entire economy. Furthermore, Resource Works CEO Stewart Muir said natural gas isn’t just a “bridge fuel,” but a destination fuel for global energy stability.
But Canada chose domestic political caution and lofty green ideals, and ignored the broader global emission reduction opportunities. The results are clear.
The new US-EU trade deal, which guarantees $250 billion a year in American LNG purchases for the next three years, is exactly the kind of long-term market Canada could have had years ago. US LNG developers like NextDecade, Venture Global, and Cheniere Energy are already riding high on market confidence, and US natural gas producers are cashing in on the growing transatlantic demand.
Meanwhile, Canada’s Atlantic provinces are missing out on the jobs and prosperity that would have come with robust LNG development.
Trudeau’s own Energy Minister, Jonathan Wilkinson, said last March that Canada wouldn’t subsidize future LNG projects, calling them “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”
The regulatory framework, Bill C-69, and BC’s CleanBC plan further added to investor uncertainty, with long approval timelines and strict emission caps. As a result, Canada has seen $670 billion in resource projects cancelled since 2015, including critical Atlantic LNG projects.
Ironically, Canada’s hesitation has inadvertently increased global emissions, as Europe and Asia revert to coal due to the lack of reliable gas supplies. That’s the opposite of Trudeau’s climate goals, proving that Canada’s cautious approach to LNG was not only economically short-sighted but environmentally counterproductive.
Today, as US LNG terminals thrive and European reliance on American energy deepens, Canada must recognize that what our leaders said did not exist was always real. The “business case” Trudeau dismissed as weak was strong enough for our southern neighbours to jump at.
Canada’s indecision has left it on the sidelines, as the economic and strategic benefits flow to those who had the will to build.
All is not yet lost. Canada is still ahead of the US on supplying LNG to the Asia-Pacific, with LNG Canada in the first year of operation. Cedar LNG and Ksi Lisims LNG will soon join them in supplying Canadian LNG to Japan, South Korea, and others.
If the Atlantic opportunity has passed, ensuring that a Pacific LNG export industry can thrive is a necessity for Canada’s energy future.
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