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Carney government’s proposed tax cut misses the mark—twice

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

On Monday, Parliament returns to the House of Commons, and the new Carney government will now attempt to implement the policy agenda it sold to Canadians in this year’s election. The government’s first priority is to follow through on its promise to cut personal income taxes for Canadians—a change that is long-overdue at the federal level. But the proposed cut misses two important considerations that will limit its effectiveness.

Specifically, the Carney government plans to lower the bottom federal personal income tax (PIT) rate (on income up to $57,375 per year) from 15 per cent to 14 per cent. The Liberal election platform suggests this change would reduce taxes for a dual-income family by up to $825 per year.

To be clear, the government should lower the tax burden on Canadians. When you add up all taxes (income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, etc.) Canadians pay, the average family spends 43.0 per cent of its income on taxes—more than on food, shelter and clothing combined. In other words, taxes are the largest single expense families face.

While the Carney government’s proposed tax cut could help chip away at the staggering tax burden imposed on Canadians, the design of the tax cut (beyond the fact that this tax cut is paid for by borrowed money) limits its ability to improve overall economic growth and prosperity.

First, the proposed tax cut fails to improve economic incentives for many Canadians.

“Marginal” tax rates refer to the rate imposed on the next dollar of income earned. For example, consider an individual who earns $100 in income and owes $15 in total tax. If they are taxed at 20 cents on the next dollar they earn, they experience a 20 per cent marginal tax rate.

A wealth of research shows that marginal PIT rates influence the behaviour of individuals. Indeed, for decisions about whether to work more hours, take a new job that pays more but has a longer commute, become an entrepreneur, or whether to save your money and invest it, marginal PIT rates directly affect the rewards you receive from those decisions.

If the government lowers marginal tax rates, it provides a greater incentive for individuals to choose to engage more in these types of productive activities. As a result, Canadians and the overall economy will be more prosperous.

But by only reducing the PIT rate for the lowest federal tax bracket, the Carney government will lower marginal tax rates for some Canadians but fail to meaningfully reduce tax rates for high-skilled workers in particular. Many Canadians won’t see better incentives to work, save or invest, and the positive effect on the economy from the tax cut will be limited. Put simply, the narrow scope of the government’s proposed tax cut limits its effectiveness at improving incentives and increasing economic growth.

Second, the proposed tax cut does little to improve the competitiveness of Canada’s tax system.

In today’s interconnected world, countries must compete to attract the people (doctors, engineers, entrepreneurs, scientists, etc.) and investment that help improve economic growth and prosperity. While there are many factors that determine how attractive (or unattractive) a country is, lower and more attractive taxes play a big role.

There are many things that make Canada an attractive place to live and work, but our uncompetitively high income tax rates are not one of them. If you compare combined (federal and provincial) marginal PIT rates in every Canada province with those in every U.S. state, Canadians in every province face higher tax rates than Americans in virtually every state, across a variety of incomes.

For example, in 2023 an individual earning $50,000, $150,000 or $300,000 per year (in Canadian dollars) would face a higher marginal PIT rate in every Canadian province than they would in every U.S. state. And Canada is not just uncompetitive with the United States but with other advanced countries worldwide at the top levels of income.

By only reducing a tax rate for the lowest income bracket, the Carney government’s proposed tax cut does little to make Canada a more attractive destination for doctors, entrepreneurs, scientists or other skilled workers. In fact, the rate cut will likely have little to no effect on the decisions of people to move to (or keep living in) Canada. And do little to improve our living standards and prosperity.

As the Carney government works to deliver on its campaign promise to lower personal income taxes on Canadians, it should consider that the current plan does little to meaningfully improve economic incentives and tax competitiveness. Instead, it should consider more ambitious and broad-based tax cuts that affect incentives.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

 

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To increase competition in Canadian banking, mandate and mindset of bank regulators must change

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From the Fraser Institute

By Lawrence L. Schembri and Andrew Spence

Canada’s weak productivity performance is directly related to the lack of competition across many concentrated industries. The high cost of financial services is a key contributor to our lagging living standards because services, such as payments, are essential input to the rest of our economy.

It’s well known that Canada’s banks are expensive and the services that they provide are outdated, especially compared to the banking systems of the United Kingdom and Australia that have better balanced the objectives of stability, competition and efficiency.

Canada’s banks are increasingly being called out by senior federal officials for not embracing new technology that would lower costs and improve productivity and living standards. Peter Rutledge, the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and senior officials at the Bank of Canada, notably Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent, have called for measures to increase competition in the banking system to promote innovation, efficiency and lower prices for financial services.

The recent federal budget proposed several new measures to increase competition in the Canadian banking sector, which are long overdue. As a marker of how uncompetitive the market for financial services has become, the budget proposed direct interventions to reduce and even eliminate some bank service fees. In addition, the budget outlined a requirement to improve price and fee transparency for many transactions so consumers can make informed choices.

In an effort to reduce barriers to new entrants and to growth by smaller banks, the budget also proposed to ease the requirement that small banks include more public ownership in their capital structure.

At long last, the federal government signalled a commitment to (finally) introduce open banking by enacting the long-delayed Consumer Driven Banking Act. Open banking gives consumers full control over who they want to provide them with their financial services needs efficiently and safely. Consumers can then move beyond banks, utilizing technology to access cheaper and more efficient alternative financial service providers.

Open banking has been up and running in many countries around the world to great success. Canada lags far behind the U.K., Australia and Brazil where the presence of open banking has introduced lower prices, better service quality and faster transactions. It has also brought financing to small and medium-sized business who are often shut out of bank lending.

Realizing open banking and its gains requires a new payment mechanism called real time rail. This payment system delivers low-cost and immediate access to nonbank as well as bank financial service providers. Real time rail has been in the works in Canada for over a decade, but progress has been glacial and lags far behind the world’s leaders.

Despite the budget’s welcome backing for open banking, Canada should address the legislative mandates of its most important regulators, requiring them to weigh equally the twin objectives of financial system stability as well as competition and efficiency.

To better balance these objectives, Canada needs to reform its institutional framework to enhance the resilience of the overall banking system so it can absorb an individual bank failure at acceptable cost. This would encourage bank regulators to move away from a rigid “fear of failure” cultural mindset that suppresses competition and efficiency and has held back innovation and progress.

Canada should also reduce the compliance burden imposed on banks by the many and varied regulators to reduce barriers to entry and expansion by domestic and foreign banks. These agencies, including the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada, the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation plus several others, act in largely uncoordinated manner and their duplicative effort greatly increases compliance and reporting costs. While Canada’s large banks are able, because of their market power, to pass those costs through to their customers via higher prices and fees, they also benefit because the heavy compliance burden represents a significant barrier to entry that shelters them from competition.

More fundamental reforms are needed, beyond the measures included in the federal budget, to strengthen the institutional framework and change the regulatory mindset. Such reforms would meaningfully increase competition, efficiency and innovation in the Canadian banking system, simultaneously improving the quality and lowering the cost of financial services, and thus raising productivity and the living standards of Canadians.

Lawrence L. Schembri

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

Andrew Spence

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