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One Solution to Canada’s Housing Crisis: Move. Toronto loses nearly half million people to more affordable locations

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From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Wendell Cox

The largest CMA, Toronto, had by far the most significant net internal migration loss at 402,600, Montreal lost 162,700, and Vancouver lost 49,700.

Canadians are fleeing overpriced cities to find more affordable housing. And restrictive urban planning policies are to blame.

Canadians may be solving the housing crisis on their own by moving away from more expensive areas to areas where housing is much more affordable. This trend is highlighted in the latest internal migration data from Statistics Canada.

The data covers 167 areas comprising the entire nation, including Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), which have populations from 100,000 to seven million. It also includes the smaller Census Agglomerations (CAs), which have a core population of at least 10,000, as well as areas outside CMAs and CAs in each province and territory, which are referred to as “largely rural areas.”

Long-standing migration trends have been virtually reversed. Larger cities (CMAs) now see the highest loss of net internal migrants, while smaller cities (CAs) are experiencing solid gains. Between 2019 and 2023, Canada’s CMAs lost 273,800 net internal migrants to smaller areas, including CAs and largely rural areas. This contrasts sharply with the previous five-year period (2014 to 2018) when CMAs saw only a 1,000-person loss.

So, where did these people go? A significant portion – 108,100 – moved to CAs, which captured 39 per cent of the CMA losses. This is triple that of the previous five years (2014 through 2018).

However, the most notable shift occurred in largely rural areas, which gained 165,700 net internal migrants, representing 61 per cent of CMA losses. This is a dramatic increase compared to the 33,700 net loss in the previous five years.

Among the 167 areas, the migration data is stunning.

The areas experiencing the greatest net internal migration are outside CMAs and CAs. The largely rural area of Ontario saw the biggest gain, with a net increase of 78,300 people – nearly 40 times the number from the previous five years. Meanwhile, rural Quebec placed second, with a net gain of 76,200 people, more than 10 times the increase in the prior five years. The Calgary CMA ranked third (and first among CMAs) at 42,600, followed by the Ottawa Gatineau CMA (Ontario and Quebec) at 36,700 and the Oshawa CMA at 34,900.

The largest CMA, Toronto, had by far the most significant net internal migration loss at 402,600, Montreal lost 162,700, and Vancouver lost 49,700. Outside these CMAs, nearly all areas posted net gains.

People have also started moving to the Maritimes. The Halifax CMA tripled its previous gain (21,300). In New Brunswick, Moncton nearly quadrupled its gain (7,000). Modest gains were also made in Fredericton and Saint John as well as in Charlottetown in Prince Edward Island.

Meanwhile, housing affordability in Canada’s largest CMAs has become grim. Toronto’s median house price to median household income has doubled in less than two decades. Vancouver’s prices have tripled relative to incomes in five decades. Montreal’s house prices nearly doubled relative to incomes over two decades.

These CMAs (and others) have housing policies typical of the international planning orthodoxy, which seeks to make cities denser. In effect, they have declared war against “urban sprawl,” trying to stop any material expansion of urbanization. These urban containment policies, which include greenbelts, agricultural reserves, urban growth boundaries and compact city strategies, are associated with the worst housing affordability. Land prices are skewed upward throughout the market. Demand continues to increase ahead of incomes, but the supply of low-cost suburban land, so crucial to controlling costs, is frozen.

Regrettably, some areas where people have fled are also subject to urban containment and housing affordability has deteriorated rapidly. Between 2015 and 2022, prices in Ontario CMAs London, Guelph, Brantford and St. Catharines have about doubled. BC’s Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island have seen similar increases. Those moving to these areas are ahead financially, but the rapidly rising house prices are closing opportunities.

There are proposals to restore housing affordability, though none tackle the urban containment policies associated with the price increases. Indeed, we have not found a single metropolitan area where housing affordability has been restored with the market distortions of the intensity that have developed in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal (not in our Demographia International Housing Affordability report or elsewhere). Such markets have become unsustainable for most new entrant households because they cannot afford to live there.

Housing is not a commodity. Households have varying preferences, from ground-oriented housing (detached and townhomes) to high-rise condos. Indeed, a growing body of literature associates detached housing with higher total fertility rates. According to Statistics Canada, Canadians have favoured lower densities for decades, a trend that continued through the 2021 Census, a trend that continued through the 2021 Census, according to Statistics Canada.

With governments (virtually around the world) failing to maintain stable and affordable housing markets, it’s not surprising people are taking matters into their own hands. Until fundamental reforms can be implemented in the most expensive markets, those seeking a better quality of life will have no choice but to leave.

First published in the Financial Post.

Wendell Cox is a senior fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and the author of Demographia International Housing Affordability.

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From Gregor Robertson to Sean Fraser to Steven Guilbeault, Mark Carney’s Team ‘As Bad A Start As It Can Get’

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National Citizens Coalition Slams Carney Government’s Disastrous Start

The National Citizens Coalition (NCC) is sounding the alarm on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government, which has stumbled out of the gate with a series of missteps that threaten Canada’s prosperity and unity. From housing, to justice, to energy policy, the Carney cabinet’s early remarks signal a continuation of failed Trudeau-era policies, compounded by a refusal to provide fiscal transparency. We urge Canadians to voice their outrage and to hold these failing status-quo profiteers to account — before it’s too late.

Gregor Robertson’s Immediate Housing Fumble: A Crisis Ignored

One of the early architects of Canada’s generational housing crises, controversial former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson has already dashed hopes for meaningful reform. During his tenure in Vancouver, which was marred by corruption and scandal, housing prices more than doubled, and municipal taxes on new homes soared by over 140%. Now, just days into his federal role, Robertson has declared that home prices don’t need to come down, dismissing the struggles of millions of Canadians priced out of the market. This tone-deaf stance, his apparent refusal to understand basic principles of supply and demand, coupled with his track record of overseeing Vancouver’s affordability crisis, suggests the Liberals have no plan to deliver on their promise to allow Canadian under-50s back into the housing market.

Canadians deserve a housing minister who understands the urgency of the crisis, and who won’t just commit to building Brookfield-backed dog-crate leaseholds. Young working Canadians are understandably worried, and this is as bad a start as feared for all those who have been denied the Canadian Dream.

Sean Fraser’s Justice Appointment: Failing Families Amid Rising Crime

The decision to appoint Sean Fraser as Minister of Justice is equally troubling. Fraser, who previously oversaw historically unsustainable immigration levels as Immigration Minister and delivered no measurable results as Housing Minister, now takes on a justice portfolio at a time when random violent attacks are leaving families shaken across Canada. Reports of stabbings, assaults, and public safety breakdowns dominate headlines, yet Fraser’s early comments suggest he may prioritize working from home over tackling the crime wave head-on. Canadians need a justice minister focused on restoring safety and locking up criminals, not one “failing upward” into a role he’s unprepared to handle. This status-quo quite literally kills.

Steven Guilbeault Executes a Unity Crisis

Steven Guilbeault, now Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture, has wasted no time inflaming tensions with Western Canada. On May 13, 2025, Guilbeault questioned the need for new pipelines, pointing to excess capacity in the Trans Mountain pipeline and predicting a global peak in oil demand. This anti-energy rhetoric, from a former environment minister known for his activist opposition to resource development, risks alienating Alberta and other resource-dependent regions. At a time when Canada needs a united front, Guilbeault’s comments threaten to deepen divisions and undermine economic growth. The NCC condemns this reckless approach, which prioritizes ideology over jobs and national unity.

Like Gregor Robertson, Guilbeault must be removed from his file at once.

Carney’s Budget Refusal: Hiding from Accountability — Just Like Justin

Perhaps most alarming is Carney’s announcement that his government will not table a federal budget in 2025, opting instead for a vague “fall economic statement.” This decision leaves Canadians in the dark about the government’s fiscal plans at a time of economic uncertainty, including U.S. tariff disruptions and rising deficits. Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page has warned that campaign platforms are outdated, and Parliament will be asked to approve spending without a clear framework. By dodging a budget, Carney is evading accountability and undermining trust in his government’s ability to manage Canada’s finances responsibly.

A Call to Action for Canadians

The NCC stands with the millions of Canadians who demand better, and the growing working-class coalition of common-sense conservatives. Carney’s cabinet appointments and early policy signals reveal a government out of touch with the priorities of hardworking families, energy workers, and taxpayers. We call on supporters to join us in pressing for real change: policies that make housing more affordable, that bring immigration back in line with sustainable norms, that make streets safe, and that make energy development more robust and life more affordable.

And this government will not be allowed to get away with the lack of economic transparency of the last ten years.

This has been as bad a start as it gets. More won’t just be expected of Carney. It will be demanded.

Founded in 1967, the National Citizens Coalition is a non-profit organization dedicated to advocating for smaller government, lower taxes, and greater individual freedom. We amplify the voices of Canadians who believe in accountability, prosperity, and unity.

If you share our alarm, your support is most welcome with a donation.

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Canada remains in neutral while the world moves at warp speed

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By Peter Coleman, President, National Citizens Coalition

‘New choir, same song book; Carney cabinet selections don’t inspire much confidence.’

The world is hurtling forward, but Canada, under Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ‘new’ Liberal government, seems stuck in neutral. Listening to CBC’s fawning coverage of Carney’s cabinet shuffle, I was struck not by the predictable nods to gender and regional quotas, but by the breathtaking arrogance of keeping some of the Liberal Party’s most incompetent figures in power. This shuffle signals more of the same from a party that’s governed with platitudes and failures for a decade.

Take Steven Guilbeault, shuffled from his disastrous tenure as Environment Minister to—wait for it—Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture. Yes, the former radical eco-terrorist and poster boy for carbon tax dogma and incoherent policies is now tasked with defining what it means to be Canadian. It’s tone-deaf and laughable. Guilbeault’s track record suggests he’s more likely to lecture us on electric vehicle mandates than celebrate the rugged individualism that built this nation. If Carney thinks this move shows bold leadership, or anything but a middle-finger to the West, he’s already misreading the room.

Then there’s Sean Fraser, who stumbled through Immigration, fumbled Housing, and now lands as Minister of Justice and Attorney General. Fraser couldn’t tell you how many immigrants entered Canada under his watch, let alone how many homes he failed to build. Yet here he is, entrusted with upholding the rule of law. Will he push for tougher sentencing for repeat offenders—something the Liberals have dodged for years? Canadians deserve a justice minister who prioritizes public safety, not one whose resume reads worse than any Parliamentarian in history.

And yet, the legacy media, ever loyal to the Liberal brand, still insists Carney is the smartest guy in the room. But his recent meeting with President Trump, where he was publicly lampooned and left empty-handed, suggests otherwise. Canadians are tired of waiting for Carney to prove he’s different. At the National Citizens Coalition, we’ve watched governments come and go since 1967. We judge them not by their press releases but by what they deliver for hardworking Canadians from coast to coast. So far, Carney’s cabinet reeks of recycled Trudeau-era failures.

There’s a glimmer of hope in Tim Hodgson, the new Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, replacing the woefully ineffective John Wilkinson. Hodgson brings real-world experience—Canadian Military service and years of high-level corporate expertise—that could prove to be useful in Western Canada. After a decade of Liberal neglect, the West’s resource sector is desperate to get oil, gas, and minerals to market without bureaucratic roadblocks. Hodgson’s background may well represent a welcome change, but he’ll need to move fast to undo years of damage.

The Liberal Party’s last decade of incompetence—marked by soaring deficits, housing crises, identity crises, rampant crime, and immigration chaos—has eroded Canada’s standing, and left us behind. The world is moving at warp speed, with global powers leveraging their resources to dominate markets and secure prosperity. Canada, blessed with resources the world envies, should be leading the pack. Instead, we’ve been mired in red tape and empty promises.

Carney’s government must deliver concrete, results-driven outcomes—now. The same old Trudeau-era ministers, like Guilbeault, Freeland, Joly, and Fraser, need to change course or get out of the way. Talk is cheap, and working Canadians are done with it. If Carney can’t shift gears and unleash Canada’s potential, we’ll remain a nation suck in neutral, bogged down in decline, watching the world pass us by. Time will tell, but this was not a promising start.

The clock is ticking.

Peter Coleman is the President of the National Citizens Coalition.

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