From the Fraser Institute

By Elmira Aliakbari and Julio Mejía

Doubling Canadian natural gas production and exporting to Asia could reduce global emissions by up to 630 million tonnes—nearly as much as Canada produces in a year

Canada could help significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by increasing natural gas production and exporting the additional supply to Asia in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to a new study from the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think tank.

“As countries like China and India continue to burn coal for power, Canadian LNG offers a lower-emission alternative with the potential for major global impact,” said Elmira Aliakbari, director of natural resource studies at the Fraser Institute and coauthor of the study, Exporting Canadian LNG to the World: A Practical Solution for Reducing GHG Emissions

The study estimates the impact from Canada doubling its natural gas production and exporting to Asia to replace coal-fired power. In that scenario, global emissions could drop up to 630 million tonnes annually, which is the equivalent of removing approximately 137 million cars from the road. More specifically, replacing coal-fired power in China with Canadian LNG could cut emissions by up to 62 per cent for every unit of power produced.

“Focusing only on domestic emissions ignores Canada’s potential to support global climate goals,” said Aliakbari. “By displacing coal abroad, Canadian LNG can play a critical role in cutting total global emissions even if domestic emissions were to increase.”

However, regulatory uncertainty and a range of federal and provincial policies continue to hinder LNG development in Canada, despite strong global demand.

“Policymakers need to clear a path if Canada is going to play a meaningful role in reducing global emissions,” Aliakbari added.

Exporting Canadian LNG to the World: A Practical Solution for Reducing GHG Emissions

• Coal, a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, remains a leading energy source in many Asian countries, especially China and India. Some European countries have also turned back to coal as sanctions on Russian energy intensified following the invasion of Ukraine.
• As the world seeks practical solutions for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, natural gas, with its lower carbon footprint, offers a promising alternative to coal.
• With abundant reserve, Canada is well positioned to help reduce global reliance on coal. By exporting Canadian liquified natural gas (LNG) and helping Asian and European countries reduce their reliance on coal, Canada can lower net global GHG emissions.
• Exporting LNG from Canada to China and substituting LNG for coal in the generation of power there can eliminate between 291 and 687 gCO₂eq per kWh of power generated, a reduction of between 34% and 62%.
• If Canada were to double its current natural gas production and export the additional supply to Asia as LNG to displace an equivalent amount of coal used to generate power, global GHG emissions could be reduced by up to 630 million tonnes annually, a significant reduction equivalent to 89% of Canada’s total GHG emissions.
• Canada enjoys several competitive advantages, including cooler temperatures that reduce liquefaction energy costs and a strategic location that offers shorter shipping routes to Europe and Asia compared to many other suppliers.
• Regulatory challenges and a mix of federal and provincial policies, however, have slowed or blocked LNG developments in Canada.

This article supplied by Troy Media.

By Science and Technology Desk

New study finds billions more trees than expected, making boreal forests a bigger carbon sink than we thought

Canada’s boreal forests may be far more resilient to climate change than previously believed, with new research showing they contain billions more trees than past estimates, potentially boosting Canada’s natural defences in the fight against global warming.

Spanning from Yukon to Newfoundland, the boreal forest is one of the largest intact ecosystems in the world. It plays a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide, protecting biodiversity and supporting Indigenous and rural communities.

A new University of Alberta study provided the most accurate estimate to date of how many trees populate the boreal region, reducing long-standing uncertainties in forest carbon modelling and management.

The result: 277 billion trees across the boreal zone, including 30 billion in Alberta—31 per cent more than estimated in a major 2015 global study.

“Our research provides by far the most accurate and credible answer to the question of how many trees are in our boreal forests,” said study lead Fangliang He, a forest ecologist and Canada Research Chair in Biodiversity and Landscape Modelling.

“Knowing that there are 31 per cent more trees than previously estimated suggests our boreal forests have greater capacity to mitigate climate change.”
Tree counts like this help scientists and policymakers understand how much carbon forests can absorb and store, critical for estimating how large a role boreal ecosystems can play in national emissions strategies.

To improve on the earlier global estimate, He’s team compiled data from a record 4,367 tree plots across Canada and Alaska, compared with just 346 used in the 2015 study.

“This provides a large set of data with extensive geographic coverage in North America,” He said.

To measure trees 10 centimetres or larger in diameter—the same threshold used in the 2015 analysis—He and his team used an artificial intelligence algorithm to develop competition-based models that included tree height, a key indicator of forest competition. The use of AI allowed the researchers to detect patterns that traditional methods might miss.

“These innovative models represent a major advance in improving the accuracy of estimating tree count.”

The researchers also projected future tree density under a range of climate scenarios to see how the boreal forest might respond to a warming planet. The findings were surprising: under increasingly warmer conditions, tree density in the boreal forest would rise overall by at least 11 per cent by 2050.

“This result suggests that boreal forests might be more resilient to climate change than we thought,” He said.

The study, he added, underscores the need for better data and forecasting tools to support forest management and climate policy.

While the federal government has pledged to plant two billion trees by 2030, He said that effort is nowhere near enough.

“That number only accounts for 0.83 per cent of our estimated total number of 240 billion boreal trees in Canada, speaking to the mitigation challenge through tree-planting,” he said.

At current planting rates, he said, it would take centuries to match the natural regeneration and density needed to make a measurable impact.

“Protection of natural forests is the best nature-based solution.”

The study contributes to a growing body of research using artificial intelligence to model complex ecological systems, and could influence Canada’s future forestry and climate strategies.

Science and Technology Desk

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