Alberta
Oil and gas in the global economy through 2050
From the Canadian Energy Centre
The world will continue to rely on oil and gas for decades to come, according to the International Energy Agency
Recent global conflicts, which have been partly responsible for a global spike in energy prices, have cast their shadow on energy markets around the world. Added to this uncertainty is the ongoing debate among policymakers and public institutions in various jurisdictions about the role of traditional forms of energy in the global economy.
One widely quoted study influencing the debate is the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook, the most recent edition of which, World Energy Outlook 2023 (or WEO 2023), was released recently (IEA 2023).
In this CEC Fact Sheet, we examine projections for oil and natural gas production, demand, and investment drawn from the World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset, using the IEA’s modelled scenario STEPS, or the Stated Policies Scenario. The Extended Dataset provides more detailed data at the global, regional, and country level than that found in the main report.
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the various scenarios
Every year the IEA releases its annual energy outlook. The report looks at recent energy supply and demand, and projects the investment outlook for oil and gas over the next three decades. The World Energy Outlook makes use of a scenario approach to examine future energy trends. WEO 2023 models three scenarios: the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
STEPS appears to be the most plausible scenario because it is based on the world’s current trajectory, rather than the other scenarios set out in the WEO 2023, including the APS and the NZE. According to the IEA:
The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings and also considers the implications of industrial policies that support clean energy supply chains as well as measures related to energy and climate. (2023, p. 79; emphasis by author)
and
STEPS looks in detail at what [governments] are actually doing to reach their targets and objectives across the energy economy. Outcomes in the STEPS reflect a detailed sector-by-sector review of the policies and measures that are actually in place or that have been announced; aspirational energy or climate targets are not automatically assumed to be met. (2023, p. 92)
Key results
The key results of STEPS, drawn from the IEA’s Extended Dataset, indicate that the oil and gas industry is not going into decline over the next decade—neither worldwide generally, nor in Canada specifically. In fact, the demand for oil and gas in emerging and developing economies under STEPS will remain robust through 2050.
Oil and natural gas production projections under STEPS
World oil production is projected to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022 to 97.2 mb/d in 2035, before falling slightly to 94.5 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 1).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian overall crude oil production is projected to increase from 5.8 mb/d in 2022 to 6.5 mb/d in 2035, before falling to 5.6 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 2).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian oil sands production is expected to increase from 3.6 mb/d in 2022 to 3.8 mb/d in 2035, and maintain the same production level till 2050 (see Figure 3).
Source: IEA (2023b)
World natural gas production is anticipated to increase from 4,138 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,173 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 4).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian natural gas production is projected to decrease from 204 bcm in 2022 to 194 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 5).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Oil demand under STEPS
World demand for oil is projected to increase from 96.5 mb/d in 2022 to 97.4 mb/d by 2050 (see Tables 1A and 1B). Demand in Africa for oil is expected to increase from 4.0 mb/d in 2022 to 7.7 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil in the Asia-Pacific is projected to increase from 32.9 mb/d in 2022 to 35.1 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil from emerging and developing economies is anticipated to increase from 47.9 mb/d in 2022 to 59.3 mb/d in 2050.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Source: IEA (2023b)
Natural gas demand under STEPS
World demand for natural gas is expected to increase from 4,159 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,179 bcm in 2050 (see Figures 6 and 7). Demand in Africa for natural gas is projected to increase from 170 bcm in 2020 to 277 bcm in 2050. Demand in the Asia-Pacific for natural gas is anticipated to increase from 900 bcm in 2020 to 1,119 bcm in 2050.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Source: IEA (2023b)
Cumulative oil and gas investment expected to be over $21 trillion
Taking into account projected global demand, between 2023 and 2050 the cumulative global oil and gas investment (upstream, midstream, and downstream) under STEPS is expected to reach nearly U.S.$21.1 trillion (in $2022). Global oil investment alone is expected to be over U.S.$13.1 trillion and natural gas investment is predicted to be over $8.0 trillion (see Figure 8).
Between 2023 and 2050, total oil and gas investment in North America (Canada, the U.S., and Mexico) is expected to be nearly U.S.$5.6 trillion, split between oil at over $3.8 trillion and gas at nearly $1.8 trillion (see Figure 8). Oil and gas investment in the Asia Pacific, over the same period, is estimated at nearly $3.3 trillion, split between oil at over $1.4 trillion and gas at over $1.9 trillion.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Conclusion
The sector-by-sector measures that governments worldwide have put in place and the specific policy initiatives that support clean energy policy, i.e., the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), both show oil and gas continuing to play a major role in the global economy through 2050. Key data points on production and demand drawn from the IEA’s WEO 2023 Extended Dataset confirm this trend.
Positioning Canada as a secure and reliable oil and gas supplier can and must be part of the medium- to long-term solution to meeting the oil and gas demands of the U.S., Europe, Asia and other regions as part of a concerted move supporting energy security.
The need for stable energy, which is something that oil and natural gas provide, is critical to a global economy whose population is set to grow by another 2 billion people by 2050. Along with the increasing population comes rising incomes, and with them comes a heightened demand for oil and natural gas, particularly in many emerging and developing economies in Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, where countries are seeing urbanization and industrialization grow rapidly.
References (as of February 11, 2024)
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(a), World Energy Outlook 2023 <http://tinyurl.com/4nv9xyfj>; International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(b), World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset <http://tinyurl.com/3222553b>.
Alberta
Former senior financial advisor charged with embezzling millions from Red Deer area residents
News release from Alberta RCMP
Former senior financial advisor charged for misappropriating nearly $5 million from clients
On April 4, 2024, the RCMP’s Provincial Financial Crime Team charged a Calgary resident for fraud-related offences after embezzling millions of dollars from his clients while serving as a senior financial advisor.
Following a thorough investigation, the accused is alleged to have fraudulently withdrawn funds from client accounts and deposited them into bank accounts he personally controlled. A total of sixteen victims were identified in the Red Deer area and suffered a combined loss of nearly $5 million.
Marc St. Pierre, 52, a resident of Calgary, was arrested and charged with:
- Fraud over $5,000 contrary to section 380(1)(a) of the Criminal Code; and,
- Theft over $5,000 contrary to section 344(a) of the Criminal Code.
St. Pierre is scheduled to appear in Red Deer Provincial Court on May 14, 2024.
“The ability for financial advisors to leverage their position to conduct frauds and investment scams represents a significant risk to the integrity of Alberta’s financial institutions. The investigation serves as an important reminder for all banking clients to regularly check their accounts for any suspicious activity and to report it to their bank’s fraud prevention team.”
- Sgt. John Lamming, Provincial Financial Crime Team
The Provincial Financial Crime Team is a specialized unit that conducts investigations relating to multi-jurisdictional serious fraud, investments scams and corruption.
Alberta
Political parties will be part of municipal elections in Edmonton and Calgary pilot projects
Strengthening Alberta’s local elections
Alberta’s government is introducing legislation to ensure Albertans can rely on transparent, free and fair elections, and municipally-elected officials have clearer accountability measures.
In a democratic society, Albertans expect their local elections to be free and fair, and their elected officials to be held to account by clear rules that govern their local councils. The Municipal Affairs Statutes Amendment Act proposes amendments to the Local Authorities Election Act (LAEA) and the Municipal Government Act (MGA) to add greater transparency to local election processes and ensure local councils and elected officials continue to remain accountable to the citizens who elected them.
“Our government is committed to strengthening Albertans’ trust in their local governments and the democratic process that elects local leaders. The changes we are making increase transparency for Alberta voters and provide surety their votes will be counted accurately. We know how important local democracy is to Albertans, and we will work with local authorities to protect and enhance the integrity of local elections.”
Local Authorities Election Act
Albertans expect free and fair elections and that’s why it’s important we strengthen the rules that govern local elections. To strengthen public trust in local elections, Alberta’s government will eliminate the use of electronic tabulators and other automated voting machines. All Albertans should be able to trust the methods and results of local elections; requiring all ballots to be counted by hand, clarifying rules and streamlining processes for scrutineers will provide voters greater assurance in the integrity of the results.
All eligible Albertans should be able to vote in local elections without impediment. Alberta’s government will limit the barriers for eligible voters to cast a ballot by expanding the use of special ballots. Currently, special ballots can only be requested for very specific reasons, including physical disability, absence from the municipality, or for municipal election workers. By expanding the use of special ballots, the government is encouraging more voter participation.
Amendments in the Municipal Affairs Statutes Amendment Act would increase transparency in local elections by enabling political parties at the local level. Political parties would be enabled in a pilot project for Edmonton and Calgary. The act will not require candidates to join a political party in order to run for a local or municipal office, but will create the opportunity to do so.
In addition, proposed changes to the Local Authorities Election Act would allow municipalities the option to require criminal record checks for local candidates, thus increasing transparency and trust in candidates who may go on to become elected officials.
Municipal Government Act
The role of an elected official is one with tremendous responsibility and expectations. Changes proposed to the Municipal Government Act (MGA) will strengthen the accountability of locally elected officials and councils. These include requiring mandatory orientation training for councillors, allowing elected officials to recuse themselves for real or perceived conflicts of interest without third-party review and requiring a councillor’s seat to become vacant upon disqualification.
If passed, the Municipal Affairs Statutes Amendment Act will also unlock new tools to build affordable and attainable housing across Alberta. Proposed amendments under the MGA would also create more options for municipalities to accelerate housing developments in their communities. Options include:
- Exempting non-profit, subsidized affordable housing from both municipal and education property taxes;
- Requiring municipalities to offer digital participation for public hearings about planning and development, and restricting municipalities from holding extra public hearings that are not already required by legislation; and
- Enabling municipalities to offer multi-year residential property tax exemptions.
Municipal Affairs will engage municipalities and other partners over the coming months to hear perspectives and gather feedback to help develop regulations.
Quick facts
- The LAEA establishes the framework for the conduct of elections in Alberta municipalities, school divisions, irrigation districts and Metis Settlements.
- The MGA establishes the rules governing the conduct of local elected officials once on council, as well as the overall administration and operation of municipal authorities in Alberta, including any policy those authorities may wish to implement.
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