Alberta
Oil and gas in the global economy through 2050
From the Canadian Energy Centre
The world will continue to rely on oil and gas for decades to come, according to the International Energy Agency
Recent global conflicts, which have been partly responsible for a global spike in energy prices, have cast their shadow on energy markets around the world. Added to this uncertainty is the ongoing debate among policymakers and public institutions in various jurisdictions about the role of traditional forms of energy in the global economy.
One widely quoted study influencing the debate is the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook, the most recent edition of which, World Energy Outlook 2023 (or WEO 2023), was released recently (IEA 2023).
In this CEC Fact Sheet, we examine projections for oil and natural gas production, demand, and investment drawn from the World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset, using the IEA’s modelled scenario STEPS, or the Stated Policies Scenario. The Extended Dataset provides more detailed data at the global, regional, and country level than that found in the main report.
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the various scenarios
Every year the IEA releases its annual energy outlook. The report looks at recent energy supply and demand, and projects the investment outlook for oil and gas over the next three decades. The World Energy Outlook makes use of a scenario approach to examine future energy trends. WEO 2023 models three scenarios: the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
STEPS appears to be the most plausible scenario because it is based on the world’s current trajectory, rather than the other scenarios set out in the WEO 2023, including the APS and the NZE. According to the IEA:
The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings and also considers the implications of industrial policies that support clean energy supply chains as well as measures related to energy and climate. (2023, p. 79; emphasis by author)
and
STEPS looks in detail at what [governments] are actually doing to reach their targets and objectives across the energy economy. Outcomes in the STEPS reflect a detailed sector-by-sector review of the policies and measures that are actually in place or that have been announced; aspirational energy or climate targets are not automatically assumed to be met. (2023, p. 92)
Key results
The key results of STEPS, drawn from the IEA’s Extended Dataset, indicate that the oil and gas industry is not going into decline over the next decade—neither worldwide generally, nor in Canada specifically. In fact, the demand for oil and gas in emerging and developing economies under STEPS will remain robust through 2050.
Oil and natural gas production projections under STEPS
World oil production is projected to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022 to 97.2 mb/d in 2035, before falling slightly to 94.5 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 1).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian overall crude oil production is projected to increase from 5.8 mb/d in 2022 to 6.5 mb/d in 2035, before falling to 5.6 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 2).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian oil sands production is expected to increase from 3.6 mb/d in 2022 to 3.8 mb/d in 2035, and maintain the same production level till 2050 (see Figure 3).
Source: IEA (2023b)
World natural gas production is anticipated to increase from 4,138 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,173 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 4).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Canadian natural gas production is projected to decrease from 204 bcm in 2022 to 194 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 5).
Source: IEA (2023b)
Oil demand under STEPS
World demand for oil is projected to increase from 96.5 mb/d in 2022 to 97.4 mb/d by 2050 (see Tables 1A and 1B). Demand in Africa for oil is expected to increase from 4.0 mb/d in 2022 to 7.7 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil in the Asia-Pacific is projected to increase from 32.9 mb/d in 2022 to 35.1 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil from emerging and developing economies is anticipated to increase from 47.9 mb/d in 2022 to 59.3 mb/d in 2050.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Source: IEA (2023b)
Natural gas demand under STEPS
World demand for natural gas is expected to increase from 4,159 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,179 bcm in 2050 (see Figures 6 and 7). Demand in Africa for natural gas is projected to increase from 170 bcm in 2020 to 277 bcm in 2050. Demand in the Asia-Pacific for natural gas is anticipated to increase from 900 bcm in 2020 to 1,119 bcm in 2050.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Source: IEA (2023b)
Cumulative oil and gas investment expected to be over $21 trillion
Taking into account projected global demand, between 2023 and 2050 the cumulative global oil and gas investment (upstream, midstream, and downstream) under STEPS is expected to reach nearly U.S.$21.1 trillion (in $2022). Global oil investment alone is expected to be over U.S.$13.1 trillion and natural gas investment is predicted to be over $8.0 trillion (see Figure 8).
Between 2023 and 2050, total oil and gas investment in North America (Canada, the U.S., and Mexico) is expected to be nearly U.S.$5.6 trillion, split between oil at over $3.8 trillion and gas at nearly $1.8 trillion (see Figure 8). Oil and gas investment in the Asia Pacific, over the same period, is estimated at nearly $3.3 trillion, split between oil at over $1.4 trillion and gas at over $1.9 trillion.
Source: IEA (2023b)
Conclusion
The sector-by-sector measures that governments worldwide have put in place and the specific policy initiatives that support clean energy policy, i.e., the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), both show oil and gas continuing to play a major role in the global economy through 2050. Key data points on production and demand drawn from the IEA’s WEO 2023 Extended Dataset confirm this trend.
Positioning Canada as a secure and reliable oil and gas supplier can and must be part of the medium- to long-term solution to meeting the oil and gas demands of the U.S., Europe, Asia and other regions as part of a concerted move supporting energy security.
The need for stable energy, which is something that oil and natural gas provide, is critical to a global economy whose population is set to grow by another 2 billion people by 2050. Along with the increasing population comes rising incomes, and with them comes a heightened demand for oil and natural gas, particularly in many emerging and developing economies in Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, where countries are seeing urbanization and industrialization grow rapidly.
References (as of February 11, 2024)
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(a), World Energy Outlook 2023 <http://tinyurl.com/4nv9xyfj>; International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(b), World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset <http://tinyurl.com/3222553b>.
Agriculture
Lacombe meat processor scores $1.2 million dollar provincial tax credit to help expansion
Alberta’s government continues to attract investment and grow the provincial economy.
The province’s inviting and tax-friendly business environment, and abundant agricultural resources, make it one of North America’s best places to do business. In addition, the Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit helps attract investment that will further diversify Alberta’s agriculture industry.
Beretta Farms is the most recent company to qualify for the tax credit by expanding its existing facility with the potential to significantly increase production capacity. It invested more than $10.9 million in the project that is expected to increase the plant’s processing capacity from 29,583 to 44,688 head of cattle per year. Eleven new employees were hired after the expansion and the company plans to hire ten more. Through the Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit, Alberta’s government has issued Beretta Farms a tax credit of $1,228,735.
“The Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit is building on Alberta’s existing competitive advantages for agri-food companies and the primary producers that supply them. This facility expansion will allow Beretta Farms to increase production capacity, which means more Alberta beef across the country, and around the world.”
“This expansion by Beretta Farms is great news for Lacombe and central Alberta. It not only supports local job creation and economic growth but also strengthens Alberta’s global reputation for producing high-quality meat products. I’m proud to see our government supporting agricultural innovation and investment right here in our community.”
The tax credit provides a 12 per cent non-refundable, non-transferable tax credit when businesses invest $10 million or more in a project to build or expand a value-added agri-processing facility in Alberta. The program is open to any food manufacturers and bio processors that add value to commodities like grains or meat or turn agricultural byproducts into new consumer or industrial goods.
Beretta Farms’ facility in Lacombe is a federally registered, European Union-approved harvesting and meat processing facility specializing in the slaughter, processing, packaging and distribution of Canadian and United States cattle and bison meat products to 87 countries worldwide.
“Our recent plant expansion project at our facility in Lacombe has allowed us to increase our processing capacities and add more job opportunities in the central Alberta area. With the support and recognition from the Government of Alberta’s tax credit program, we feel we are in a better position to continue our success and have the confidence to grow our meat brands into the future.”
Alberta’s agri-processing sector is the second-largest manufacturing industry in the province and meat processing plays an important role in the sector, generating millions in annual economic impact and creating thousands of jobs. Alberta continues to be an attractive place for agricultural investment due to its agricultural resources, one of the lowest tax rates in North America, a business-friendly environment and a robust transportation network to connect with international markets.
Quick facts
- Since 2023, there are 16 applicants to the Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit for projects worth about $1.6 billion total in new investment in Alberta’s agri-processing sector.
- To date, 13 projects have received conditional approval under the program.
- Each applicant must submit progress reports, then apply for a tax credit certificate when the project is complete.
- Beretta Farms has expanded the Lacombe facility by 10,000 square feet to include new warehousing, cooler space and an office building.
- This project has the potential to increase production capacity by 50 per cent, thereby facilitating entry into more European markets.
Related information
From Premier Danielle Smith and Alberta.ca/Next
Let’s talk about an Alberta Pension Plan for a minute.
With our young Alberta workforce paying billions more into the CPP each year than our seniors get back in benefits, it’s time to ask whether we stay with the status quo or create our own Alberta Pension Plan that would guarantee as good or better benefits for seniors and lower premiums for workers.
I want to hear your perspective on this idea and please check out the video. Get the facts. Join the conversation.
Visit Alberta.ca/next
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