Connect with us
[the_ad id="89560"]

Alberta

Oil and gas in the global economy through 2050

Published

4 weeks ago

8 minute read

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Ven Venkatachalam

The world will continue to rely on oil and gas for decades to come, according to the International Energy Agency

Recent global conflicts, which have been partly responsible for a global spike in energy prices, have cast their shadow on energy markets around the world. Added to this uncertainty is the ongoing debate among policymakers and public institutions in various jurisdictions about the role of traditional forms of energy in the global economy.

One widely quoted study influencing the debate is the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook, the most recent edition of which, World Energy Outlook 2023 (or WEO 2023), was released recently (IEA 2023).

In this CEC Fact Sheet, we examine projections for oil and natural gas production, demand, and investment drawn from the World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset, using the IEA’s modelled scenario STEPS, or the Stated Policies Scenario. The Extended Dataset provides more detailed data at the global, regional, and country level than that found in the main report.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the various scenarios

Every year the IEA releases its annual energy outlook. The report looks at recent energy supply and demand, and projects the investment outlook for oil and gas over the next three decades. The World Energy Outlook makes use of a scenario approach to examine future energy trends. WEO 2023 models three scenarios: the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).

STEPS appears to be the most plausible scenario because it is based on the world’s current trajectory, rather than the other scenarios set out in the WEO 2023, including the APS and the NZE. According to the IEA:

The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings and also considers the implications of industrial policies that support clean energy supply chains as well as measures related to energy and climate. (2023, p. 79; emphasis by author)

and

STEPS looks in detail at what [governments] are actually doing to reach their targets and objectives across the energy economy. Outcomes in the STEPS reflect a detailed sector-by-sector review of the policies and measures that are actually in place or that have been announced; aspirational energy or climate targets are not automatically assumed to be met. (2023, p. 92)

Key results

The key results of STEPS, drawn from the IEA’s Extended Dataset, indicate that the oil and gas industry is not going into decline over the next decade—neither worldwide generally, nor in Canada specifically. In fact, the demand for oil and gas in emerging and developing economies under STEPS will remain robust through 2050.

Oil and natural gas production projections under STEPS

World oil production is projected to increase from 94.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022 to 97.2 mb/d in 2035, before falling slightly to 94.5 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 1).

Source: IEA (2023b)

Canadian overall crude oil production is projected to increase from 5.8 mb/d in 2022 to 6.5 mb/d in 2035, before falling to 5.6 mb/d in 2050 (see Figure 2).

Source: IEA (2023b)

Canadian oil sands production is expected to increase from 3.6 mb/d in 2022 to 3.8 mb/d in 2035, and maintain the same production level till 2050 (see Figure 3).

Source: IEA (2023b)

World natural gas production is anticipated to increase from 4,138 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,173 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 4).

Source: IEA (2023b)

Canadian natural gas production is projected to decrease from 204 bcm in 2022 to 194 bcm in 2050 (see Figure 5).

Source: IEA (2023b)

Oil demand under STEPS

World demand for oil is projected to increase from 96.5 mb/d in 2022 to 97.4 mb/d by 2050 (see Tables 1A and 1B). Demand in Africa for oil is expected to increase from 4.0 mb/d in 2022 to 7.7 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil in the Asia-Pacific is projected to increase from 32.9 mb/d in 2022 to 35.1 mb/d in 2050. Demand for oil from emerging and developing economies is anticipated to increase from 47.9 mb/d in 2022 to 59.3 mb/d in 2050.

Source: IEA (2023b)

 

Source: IEA (2023b)

Natural gas demand under STEPS

World demand for natural gas is expected to increase from 4,159 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022 to 4,179 bcm in 2050 (see Figures 6 and 7). Demand in Africa for natural gas is projected to increase from 170 bcm in 2020 to 277 bcm in 2050. Demand in the Asia-Pacific for natural gas is anticipated to increase from 900 bcm in 2020 to 1,119 bcm in 2050.

Source: IEA (2023b)

 

Source: IEA (2023b)

Cumulative oil and gas investment expected to be over $21 trillion

Taking into account projected global demand, between 2023 and 2050 the cumulative global oil and gas investment (upstream, midstream, and downstream) under STEPS is expected to reach nearly U.S.$21.1 trillion (in $2022). Global oil investment alone is expected to be over U.S.$13.1 trillion and natural gas investment is predicted to be over $8.0 trillion (see Figure 8).

Between 2023 and 2050, total oil and gas investment in North America (Canada, the U.S., and Mexico) is expected to be nearly U.S.$5.6 trillion, split between oil at over $3.8 trillion and gas at nearly $1.8 trillion (see Figure 8). Oil and gas investment in the Asia Pacific, over the same period, is estimated at nearly $3.3 trillion, split between oil at over $1.4 trillion and gas at over $1.9 trillion.

Source: IEA (2023b)

Conclusion

The sector-by-sector measures that governments worldwide have put in place and the specific policy initiatives that support clean energy policy, i.e., the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), both show oil and gas continuing to play a major role in the global economy through 2050. Key data points on production and demand drawn from the IEA’s WEO 2023 Extended Dataset confirm this trend.

Positioning Canada as a secure and reliable oil and gas supplier can and must be part of the medium- to long-term solution to meeting the oil and gas demands of the U.S., Europe, Asia and other regions as part of a concerted move supporting energy security.

The need for stable energy, which is something that oil and natural gas provide, is critical to a global economy whose population is set to grow by another 2 billion people by 2050. Along with the increasing population comes rising incomes, and with them comes a heightened demand for oil and natural gas, particularly in many emerging and developing economies in Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America, where countries are seeing urbanization and industrialization grow rapidly.

References (as of February 11, 2024)

International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(a), World Energy Outlook 2023 <http://tinyurl.com/4nv9xyfj>; International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023(b), World Energy Outlook 2023 Extended Dataset <http://tinyurl.com/3222553b>.

Related Topics:

Todayville is a digital media and technology company. We profile unique stories and events in our community. Register and promote your community event for free.

Follow Author

More from this author
Censorship Industrial Complex / 8 hours ago

Jordan Peterson, Canadian lawyer warn of ‘totalitarian’ impact of Trudeau’s ‘Online Harms’ bill

Alberta / 16 hours ago

Alberta official reveals ‘almost all’ wildfires in province this year have been started by humans

Censorship Industrial Complex / 16 hours ago

Australian politicians attack Elon Musk for refusing to remove video of Orthodox bishop’s stabbing

Alberta

Political parties will be part of municipal elections in Edmonton and Calgary pilot projects

Published on April 25, 2024

By

Strengthening Alberta’s local elections

Alberta’s government is introducing legislation to ensure Albertans can rely on transparent, free and fair elections, and municipally-elected officials have clearer accountability measures.

In a democratic society, Albertans expect their local elections to be free and fair, and their elected officials to be held to account by clear rules that govern their local councils. The Municipal Affairs Statutes Amendment Act proposes amendments to the Local Authorities Election Act (LAEA) and the Municipal Government Act (MGA) to add greater transparency to local election processes and ensure local councils and elected officials continue to remain accountable to the citizens who elected them.

“Our government is committed to strengthening Albertans’ trust in their local governments and the democratic process that elects local leaders. The changes we are making increase transparency for Alberta voters and provide surety their votes will be counted accurately. We know how important local democracy is to Albertans, and we will work with local authorities to protect and enhance the integrity of local elections.”

Ric McIver, Minister of Municipal Affairs

Local Authorities Election Act

Albertans expect free and fair elections and that’s why it’s important we strengthen the rules that govern local elections. To strengthen public trust in local elections, Alberta’s government will eliminate the use of electronic tabulators and other automated voting machines. All Albertans should be able to trust the methods and results of local elections; requiring all ballots to be counted by hand, clarifying rules and streamlining processes for scrutineers will provide voters greater assurance in the integrity of the results.

All eligible Albertans should be able to vote in local elections without impediment. Alberta’s government will limit the barriers for eligible voters to cast a ballot by expanding the use of special ballots. Currently, special ballots can only be requested for very specific reasons, including physical disability, absence from the municipality, or for municipal election workers. By expanding the use of special ballots, the government is encouraging more voter participation.

Amendments in the Municipal Affairs Statutes Amendment Act would increase transparency in local elections by enabling political parties at the local level. Political parties would be enabled in a pilot project for Edmonton and Calgary. The act will not require candidates to join a political party in order to run for a local or municipal office, but will create the opportunity to do so.

In addition, proposed changes to the Local Authorities Election Act would allow municipalities the option to require criminal record checks for local candidates, thus increasing transparency and trust in candidates who may go on to become elected officials.

Municipal Government Act

The role of an elected official is one with tremendous responsibility and expectations. Changes proposed to the Municipal Government Act (MGA) will strengthen the accountability of locally elected officials and councils. These include requiring mandatory orientation training for councillors, allowing elected officials to recuse themselves for real or perceived conflicts of interest without third-party review and requiring a councillor’s seat to become vacant upon disqualification.

If passed, the Municipal Affairs Statutes Amendment Act will also unlock new tools to build affordable and attainable housing across Alberta. Proposed amendments under the MGA would also create more options for municipalities to accelerate housing developments in their communities. Options include:

  • Exempting non-profit, subsidized affordable housing from both municipal and education property taxes;
  • Requiring municipalities to offer digital participation for public hearings about planning and development, and restricting municipalities from holding extra public hearings that are not already required by legislation; and
  • Enabling municipalities to offer multi-year residential property tax exemptions.

Municipal Affairs will engage municipalities and other partners over the coming months to hear perspectives and gather feedback to help develop regulations.

Quick facts

  • The LAEA establishes the framework for the conduct of elections in Alberta municipalities, school divisions, irrigation districts and Metis Settlements.
  • The MGA establishes the rules governing the conduct of local elected officials once on council, as well as the overall administration and operation of municipal authorities in Alberta, including any policy those authorities may wish to implement.

Related information

Continue Reading

Alberta

Alberta official reveals ‘almost all’ wildfires in province this year have been started by humans

Published on April 25, 2024

By

From LifeSiteNews

By Clare Marie Merkowsky

Alberta Minister of Forestry and Parks Todd Loewen said his department estimates that most of the province’s wildfires this year are man-made and not caused by ‘climate change.’

Alberta officials have announced that almost all fires in 2024 are believed to have been caused by humans despite ongoing claims that “climate change” is to blame.

On April 24, Alberta Minister of Forestry and Parks Todd Loewen revealed that his department estimates that most of the province’s wildfires this year are man-made and not caused by “climate change” as claimed by mainstream media and politicians.

“We expect that almost all of the wildfires we’ve experienced so far this year are human caused, given the point we’re at in the season and the types of weather we’re seeing,” Loewen stated.

 Already, Alberta has put out 172 wildfires this year, and 63 are actively burning. However, Loewen did not seem overly alarmed, instead warning Albertans to watch their local fire bans and restrictions to reduce the high number of man-made wildfires.  

“I urge you to assess your property for wildfire danger and take any preventive action you can to address these risks,” he said.

“This includes breaking up fuel sources that could ignite a structure, removing trees in close proximity to your home, and properly maintaining your gutters and roofs to rid the materials that could easily ignite such as leaves and dry needles,” Loewen added.

Loewen’s announcement comes just weeks after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith promised that arsonists who ignite wildfires in Alberta will be held accountable for their crimes.

“As we approach the wildfire season, it is important to understand that 67% of wildfires in Alberta are started by people,” she explained.

“If you start a wildfire, you can be charged, fined, and held liable for all costs associated with fighting the wildfire,” Smith added.

“All I know is in my province we have 650 fires and 500 of them were human caused,” she said, “so we have to make sure that when people know that when it’s dry out there and we get into forest fire season that they’re being a lot more careful because anytime you end up with an ignition that happens it can have devastating consequences.”

The Alberta government has also created an ad campaign highlighting the fact that most fires are caused by humans and not “climate change,” as many left-leaning politicians claim.

As reported by LifeSiteNews last year, Smith ordered arson investigators to look into why some of the wildfires that raged across the vast expanse of the province had “no known cause” shortly after they spread.

Indeed, despite claims that wildfires have drastically increased due to “climate change,” 2023 research revealed that wildfires have decreased globally while media coverage has spiked 400 percent.

Furthermore, many of the fires last spring and summer were discovered to be caused by arsonists and not “climate change.”

Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) have arrested arsonists who have been charged with lighting fires across the country, including in the Yukon, British Columbia, and Alberta.

In Quebec, satellite footage also showed the mysterious simultaneous eruption of several blazes across the province, sparking concerns that the fires were a coordinated effort by arsonists.

Despite the overwhelming evidence, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and mainstream media continue to claim that the fires are unprecedentedly dangerous and caused by “climate change” in an attempt to pass further regulations on natural resources.

The reduction and eventual elimination of the use of so-called “fossil fuels” and a transition to unreliable “green” energy has also been pushed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) – the globalist group behind the socialist “Great Reset” agenda – an organization with which Trudeau and some in his cabinet are involved.

Continue Reading

Trending

X