Economy
Nighttime light intensity exposes failure of autocratic regimes
From the Fraser Institute
When people have more economic freedom, they are allowed to make more of their own economic decisions, free of constraints imposed by others. During the 1960s and 1970s, despite the relative economic success of most western democracies, most of the rest of the world rejected strong pro-market policies, with the notable exception of Hong Kong. Milton Friedman said Hong Kong offered “an almost laboratory experiment in what happens when government is limited to its proper functions and leaves people free to pursue their own objectives.” Hong Kong’s success served as the primary example of the uplifting potential of economic freedom.
However, without a quantifiable measure of economic freedom, it was difficult to generalize these claims. This led to the conception and production of the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index by the Fraser Institute. Armed with a measure of economic freedom, researchers could test the claim that economic freedom leads to prosperity.
Since its inception, the multiple editions of the dataset routinely confirmed that economically freer countries have higher income levels, enjoy faster economic growth, are more resilient to shocks, and produce great reductions in poverty and income gains all along the income ladder.
But in fact, in a recent article published by the European Journal of Political Economy and co-authored with Macy Scheck and Sean Patrick Alvarez, I offer evidence that the EFW report often underestimates the potency of economic freedom.
Why? Because the economic statistics produced in countries ruled by autocrats are not believable.
In autocratic regimes, rulers must bolster their legitimacy to prevent coups or uprisings, so they produce statistics that exaggerate their country’s performance. And since neither the opposition nor independent authorities are allowed to challenge these claims, autocrats can get away with lying about the size of their economies.
Autocrats also repress economic freedom (along with other freedoms), so any estimation of the effects of economic freedom on economic development will likely be exaggerated due to the lies of dictators.
How can we correct these lies? It’s not as if the autocrats would let us check their books. But fortunately, we don’t have to. We simply need a measure of economic activity that correlates with economic development and cannot be manipulated. Namely, nighttime light intensity, as measured by satellites orbiting the Earth.
Satellites provide accurate and unbiased information, which dictators cannot manipulate. Nighttime light is artificial (manmade) and its level should depict (all else being equal) levels of development. It’s why one can often see images of North and South Korea at night where the former is in utter darkness and the latter sparkles like a Christmas tree.
By examining the relationship between light intensity and economic development as measured by GDP in democracies—where data is generally reliable—one can estimate the extent of inaccuracies in the economic data reported by dictatorships and then create corrected data.
In our article, based on satellite data, we found that in more than 110 countries (including dictatorships), the association between economic freedom and income levels was between 10 per cent and 62 per cent greater than previously estimated. We also found that when using the corrected data, one extra point of economic freedom (on a 10-point scale) generated between 5 per cent and 24 per cent more economic growth from 1992 to 2012.
These results are a powerful answer to those who doubt the value of economic freedom. And they offer a way to see past the lies of dictators.
Economy
If Canadian families spent and borrowed like the federal government, they would be $427,759 in debt
From the Fraser Institute
By Grady Munro and Jake Fuss
If the median Canadian family spent and borrowed like the federal government, they would already be $427,759 in debt and continuing to borrow, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute.
“If the median family in Canada spent and borrowed like the federal government, they would be in serious financial trouble,” said Grady Munro, a Fraser Institute policy analyst and co-author of Understanding the Scale of Canada’s Federal Deficit.
The $39.8 billion deficit expected by Ottawa in 2024/25 represents the 17th consecutive annual federal deficit, with continued deficits expected into the foreseeable future, eventually resulting in higher taxes for Canadians.
Continuous annual borrowing by Ottawa to finance increased spending has driven federal total debt from 53.0 per cent of the economy ($1.1 trillion) in 2014/15 up to an expected 69.8 per cent ($2.1 trillion) in 2024/25.
To put this into perspective, the study’s analysis offers an example of what a median family’s household finances would look like if they were to spend and borrow like the federal government in 2024.
The study found that the median Canadian family in 2024 would spend $109,982 while only earning $101,821, meaning that it would borrow $8,161 just to pay for its normal spending. This $8,000-plus in additional debt is on top of the $427,759 in existing debt the family would already hold based on previous borrowing.
Illustrative of the burden of debt, $11,066 of the family’s income, representing almost 11 per cent, would be spent on just the interest costs of existing debt.
“Unlike most households, where debt is often offset by assets such as a home or investments, the federal government has little in the way of assets to offset its enormous debt,” said Jake Fuss, director of fiscal policy at the Fraser Institute and coauthor. “And it’s important to note that this government debt burden on Canadian families does not include the burden of provincial and municipal government debt, which depending on one’s location, can be significant.”
- For many years the federal government’s approach to government finances has relied on spending-driven deficits and a growing debt burden, causing a deterioration in the state of federal finances.
- While deficits can sometimes be justified in certain circumstances, perpetual spending-driven deficits have become the norm rather than a temporary exception for the federal government. The $39.8 billion deficit expected in 2024/25 is the 17th consecutive annual deficit, and deficits are expected to continue into the foreseeable future.
- Deficits have helped drive federal gross debt from 53.0% of the economy ($1.1 trillion) in 2014/15 up to an expected 69.8% ($2.1 trillion) in 2024/25.
- This increase in the level of federal debt comes with costs and will result in higher taxes on Canadians.
- It may be hard to comprehend the scale of the deficits and debt, so to contextualize the current state of federal finances this bulletin provides an example of what a median family’s household budget would look like in 2024 if it managed its finances the way the federal government does.
- The median family earning $101,821 in 2024 would be spending $109,982 if it spent the way the federal government does. To cover the difference, it would put $8,161 on a credit card, despite already being $427,759 in debt.
- Of the total amount spent, $11,066 would go towards interest on the debt his year. Simply put, a Canadian family that chose to spend like the federal government would be in financial trouble.
Authors:
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Owen Klinsky
European energy company BP has announced plans to sell its U.S. onshore wind business as it aims to concentrate on its core oil and gas business and improve investor sentiment, according to the Financial Times.
BP, along with its rival Shell, has looked to scale back on green initiatives over the past few years, rejecting further cuts to oil production in June 2023. Now, the company is looking to sell its roughly $2 billion U.S. onshore wind portfolio, which consists of stakes in ten operating wind farms and has a total net generating capacity of 1.3 gigawatts, the FT reported.
“We believe the business is likely to be of greater value for another owner,” William Lin, BP’s executive vice president for gas & low carbon energy, told Bloomberg. “This planned divestment is part of our strategy of continuing to simplify our portfolio and focus on value.”
The move comes as BP’s share price sits near a two-year low, and as the company is in the process of “shifting capital away from transition themes and back to the core business,” Biraj Borkhataria, head of European energy research at RBC Europe Ltd XYZ, told Bloomberg. It also comes as the U.S. onshore wind industry has struggled more broadly as installations have slowed due to elevated interest rates and permitting challenges, with BloombergNEF lowering its projections for new onshore wind by 22% through 2030.
BP’s offshore wind (OSW) efforts have also run into challenges, with the company writing down the value of its OSW portfolio by $1.1 billion last year, and the company’s former renewables chief, Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath, telling the FT, “offshore wind in the US is fundamentally broken.”
BP’s competitor Shell has also pivoted away from a renewables transition in recent years, with its CEO Wael Sawan describing cutting oil production as “dangerous and irresponsible.”
“I disagree with him, respectfully,” Sawan said in July 2023 in reference to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterrdaes’ comment that new oil and gas investments are “economic and moral madness.” “What would be dangerous and irresponsible is actually cutting out oil and gas production so that the cost of living, as we saw last year, starts to shoot up again.”
The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in Feb. 2022 drove energy prices skywards, with gas surpassing $5 a gallon in June 2022, up from roughly $1.80 in April 2020, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
BP did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Premier: Stop sending asylum claimants to Alberta!
Police seize more than 66 kg of illicit drugs in interprovincial trafficking investigation
‘No One Is Paying Attention!’: Google Whistleblower Tells Rogan ‘Free And Fair Election’ Is An ‘Illusion’
They Were Who We Thought They Were. And Trump Let Them Off The Hook
Alberta announces second waste-to-energy facility near Edmonton to join Central Alberta plant at Innisfail
9/11 Widow Slams Biden Admin’s ‘Outrageous’ Attempted Plea Deals For Gitmo Terrorists
Rumored deal with Bloc Quebec party could keep Trudeau Liberals in power, stave off election
-
Business2 days agoCompanies Are Getting Back To Business And Backing Away From DEI
-
COVID-1917 hours agoFreedom activist Monica Smit wins case against Australian gov’t but still must pay $240k
-
International1 day agoFBI: Trump was playing golf when shots rang out. 2nd assassination attempt on Donald Trump’s life thwarted
-
International23 hours agoAttempted Trump assassin wanted to fight against Russia, may have been motivated by Ukraine policy
-
Alberta22 hours agoHealthcare Innovation Isn’t ‘Scary.’ Canada’s Broken System Is
-
Bruce Dowbiggin22 hours agoIt’s Half-Past Tomorrow, And the Blue Jays Alarm Is Ringing
-
International22 hours ago‘I Have No Faith’: House Speaker Mike Johnson Demands ‘Accountability’ After Second Trump Assassination Attempt
-
International21 hours agoTrump and the 1960s Assassinations: