Economy
Nighttime light intensity exposes failure of autocratic regimes
From the Fraser Institute
When people have more economic freedom, they are allowed to make more of their own economic decisions, free of constraints imposed by others. During the 1960s and 1970s, despite the relative economic success of most western democracies, most of the rest of the world rejected strong pro-market policies, with the notable exception of Hong Kong. Milton Friedman said Hong Kong offered “an almost laboratory experiment in what happens when government is limited to its proper functions and leaves people free to pursue their own objectives.” Hong Kong’s success served as the primary example of the uplifting potential of economic freedom.
However, without a quantifiable measure of economic freedom, it was difficult to generalize these claims. This led to the conception and production of the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index by the Fraser Institute. Armed with a measure of economic freedom, researchers could test the claim that economic freedom leads to prosperity.
Since its inception, the multiple editions of the dataset routinely confirmed that economically freer countries have higher income levels, enjoy faster economic growth, are more resilient to shocks, and produce great reductions in poverty and income gains all along the income ladder.
But in fact, in a recent article published by the European Journal of Political Economy and co-authored with Macy Scheck and Sean Patrick Alvarez, I offer evidence that the EFW report often underestimates the potency of economic freedom.
Why? Because the economic statistics produced in countries ruled by autocrats are not believable.
In autocratic regimes, rulers must bolster their legitimacy to prevent coups or uprisings, so they produce statistics that exaggerate their country’s performance. And since neither the opposition nor independent authorities are allowed to challenge these claims, autocrats can get away with lying about the size of their economies.
Autocrats also repress economic freedom (along with other freedoms), so any estimation of the effects of economic freedom on economic development will likely be exaggerated due to the lies of dictators.
How can we correct these lies? It’s not as if the autocrats would let us check their books. But fortunately, we don’t have to. We simply need a measure of economic activity that correlates with economic development and cannot be manipulated. Namely, nighttime light intensity, as measured by satellites orbiting the Earth.
Satellites provide accurate and unbiased information, which dictators cannot manipulate. Nighttime light is artificial (manmade) and its level should depict (all else being equal) levels of development. It’s why one can often see images of North and South Korea at night where the former is in utter darkness and the latter sparkles like a Christmas tree.
By examining the relationship between light intensity and economic development as measured by GDP in democracies—where data is generally reliable—one can estimate the extent of inaccuracies in the economic data reported by dictatorships and then create corrected data.
In our article, based on satellite data, we found that in more than 110 countries (including dictatorships), the association between economic freedom and income levels was between 10 per cent and 62 per cent greater than previously estimated. We also found that when using the corrected data, one extra point of economic freedom (on a 10-point scale) generated between 5 per cent and 24 per cent more economic growth from 1992 to 2012.
These results are a powerful answer to those who doubt the value of economic freedom. And they offer a way to see past the lies of dictators.
Banks
To increase competition in Canadian banking, mandate and mindset of bank regulators must change
From the Fraser Institute
By Lawrence L. Schembri and Andrew Spence
Canada’s weak productivity performance is directly related to the lack of competition across many concentrated industries. The high cost of financial services is a key contributor to our lagging living standards because services, such as payments, are essential input to the rest of our economy.
It’s well known that Canada’s banks are expensive and the services that they provide are outdated, especially compared to the banking systems of the United Kingdom and Australia that have better balanced the objectives of stability, competition and efficiency.
Canada’s banks are increasingly being called out by senior federal officials for not embracing new technology that would lower costs and improve productivity and living standards. Peter Rutledge, the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and senior officials at the Bank of Canada, notably Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent, have called for measures to increase competition in the banking system to promote innovation, efficiency and lower prices for financial services.
The recent federal budget proposed several new measures to increase competition in the Canadian banking sector, which are long overdue. As a marker of how uncompetitive the market for financial services has become, the budget proposed direct interventions to reduce and even eliminate some bank service fees. In addition, the budget outlined a requirement to improve price and fee transparency for many transactions so consumers can make informed choices.
In an effort to reduce barriers to new entrants and to growth by smaller banks, the budget also proposed to ease the requirement that small banks include more public ownership in their capital structure.
At long last, the federal government signalled a commitment to (finally) introduce open banking by enacting the long-delayed Consumer Driven Banking Act. Open banking gives consumers full control over who they want to provide them with their financial services needs efficiently and safely. Consumers can then move beyond banks, utilizing technology to access cheaper and more efficient alternative financial service providers.
Open banking has been up and running in many countries around the world to great success. Canada lags far behind the U.K., Australia and Brazil where the presence of open banking has introduced lower prices, better service quality and faster transactions. It has also brought financing to small and medium-sized business who are often shut out of bank lending.
Realizing open banking and its gains requires a new payment mechanism called real time rail. This payment system delivers low-cost and immediate access to nonbank as well as bank financial service providers. Real time rail has been in the works in Canada for over a decade, but progress has been glacial and lags far behind the world’s leaders.
Despite the budget’s welcome backing for open banking, Canada should address the legislative mandates of its most important regulators, requiring them to weigh equally the twin objectives of financial system stability as well as competition and efficiency.
To better balance these objectives, Canada needs to reform its institutional framework to enhance the resilience of the overall banking system so it can absorb an individual bank failure at acceptable cost. This would encourage bank regulators to move away from a rigid “fear of failure” cultural mindset that suppresses competition and efficiency and has held back innovation and progress.
Canada should also reduce the compliance burden imposed on banks by the many and varied regulators to reduce barriers to entry and expansion by domestic and foreign banks. These agencies, including the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada, the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation plus several others, act in largely uncoordinated manner and their duplicative effort greatly increases compliance and reporting costs. While Canada’s large banks are able, because of their market power, to pass those costs through to their customers via higher prices and fees, they also benefit because the heavy compliance burden represents a significant barrier to entry that shelters them from competition.
More fundamental reforms are needed, beyond the measures included in the federal budget, to strengthen the institutional framework and change the regulatory mindset. Such reforms would meaningfully increase competition, efficiency and innovation in the Canadian banking system, simultaneously improving the quality and lowering the cost of financial services, and thus raising productivity and the living standards of Canadians.
Alberta
Premier Smith: Canadians support agreement between Alberta and Ottawa and the major economic opportunities it could unlock for the benefit of all
From Energy Now
By Premier Danielle Smith
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If Canada wants to lead global energy security efforts, build out sovereign AI infrastructure, increase funding to social programs and national defence and expand trade to new markets, we must unleash the full potential of our vast natural resources and embrace our role as a global energy superpower.
The Alberta-Ottawa Energy agreement is the first step in accomplishing all of these critical objectives.
Recent polling shows that a majority of Canadians are supportive of this agreement and the major economic opportunities it could unlock for the benefit of all Canadians.
As a nation we must embrace two important realities: First, global demand for oil is increasing and second, Canada needs to generate more revenue to address its fiscal challenges.
Nations around the world — including Korea, Japan, India, Taiwan and China in Asia as well as various European nations — continue to ask for Canadian energy. We are perfectly positioned to meet those needs and lead global energy security efforts.
Our heavy oil is not only abundant, it’s responsibly developed, geopolitically stable and backed by decades of proven supply.
If we want to pay down our debt, increase funding to social programs and meet our NATO defence spending commitments, then we need to generate more revenue. And the best way to do so is to leverage our vast natural resources.
At today’s prices, Alberta’s proven oil and gas reserves represent trillions in value.
It’s not just a number; it’s a generational opportunity for Alberta and Canada to secure prosperity and invest in the future of our communities. But to unlock the full potential of this resource, we need the infrastructure to match our ambition.
There is one nation-building project that stands above all others in its ability to deliver economic benefits to Canada — a new bitumen pipeline to Asian markets.
The energy agreement signed on Nov. 27 includes a clear path to the construction of a one-million-plus barrel-per-day bitumen pipeline, with Indigenous co-ownership, that can ensure our province and country are no longer dependent on just one customer to buy our most valuable resource.
Indigenous co-ownership also provide millions in revenue to communities along the route of the project to the northwest coast, contributing toward long-lasting prosperity for their people.
The agreement also recognizes that we can increase oil and gas production while reducing our emissions.
The removal of the oil and gas emissions cap will allow our energy producers to grow and thrive again and the suspension of the federal net-zero power regulations in Alberta will open to doors to major AI data-centre investment.
It also means that Alberta will be a world leader in the development and implementation of emissions-reduction infrastructure — particularly in carbon capture utilization and storage.
The agreement will see Alberta work together with our federal partners and the Pathways companies to commence and complete the world’s largest carbon capture, utilization and storage infrastructure project.
This would make Alberta heavy oil the lowest intensity barrel on the market and displace millions of barrels of heavier-emitting fuels around the globe.
We’re sending a clear message to investors across the world: Alberta and Canada are leaders, not just in oil and gas, but in the innovation and technologies that are cutting per barrel emissions even as we ramp up production.
Where we are going — and where we intend to go with more frequency — is east, west, north and south, across oceans and around the globe. We have the energy other countries need, and will continue to need, for decades to come.
However, this agreement is just the first step in this journey. There is much hard work ahead of us. Trust must be built and earned in this partnership as we move through the next steps of this process.
But it’s very encouraging that Prime Minister Mark Carney has made it clear he is willing to work with Alberta’s government to accomplish our shared goal of making Canada an energy superpower.
That is something we have not seen from a Canadian prime minister in more than a decade.
Together, in good faith, Alberta and Ottawa have taken the first step towards making Canada a global energy superpower for benefit of all Canadians.
Danielle Smith is the Premier of Alberta
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