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Economy

If Canadian families spent and borrowed like the federal government, they would be $427,759 in debt

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From the Fraser Institute

By Grady Munro and Jake Fuss

If the median Canadian family spent and borrowed like the federal government, they would already be $427,759 in debt and continuing to borrow, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute.

“If the median family in Canada spent and borrowed like the federal government, they would be in serious financial trouble,” said Grady Munro, a Fraser Institute policy analyst and co-author of Understanding the Scale of Canada’s Federal Deficit.

The $39.8 billion deficit expected by Ottawa in 2024/25 represents the 17th consecutive annual federal deficit, with continued deficits expected into the foreseeable future, eventually resulting in higher taxes for Canadians.

Continuous annual borrowing by Ottawa to finance increased spending has driven federal total debt from 53.0 per cent of the economy ($1.1 trillion) in 2014/15 up to an expected 69.8 per cent ($2.1 trillion) in 2024/25.

To put this into perspective, the study’s analysis offers an example of what a median family’s household finances would look like if they were to spend and borrow like the federal government in 2024.

The study found that the median Canadian family in 2024 would spend $109,982 while only earning $101,821, meaning that it would borrow $8,161 just to pay for its normal spending. This $8,000-plus in additional debt is on top of the $427,759 in existing debt the family would already hold based on previous borrowing.

Illustrative of the burden of debt, $11,066 of the family’s income, representing almost 11 per cent, would be spent on just the interest costs of existing debt.

“Unlike most households, where debt is often offset by assets such as a home or investments, the federal government has little in the way of assets to offset its enormous debt,” said Jake Fuss, director of fiscal policy at the Fraser Institute and coauthor. “And it’s important to note that this government debt burden on Canadian families does not include the burden of provincial and municipal government debt, which depending on one’s location, can be significant.”

  • For many years the federal government’s approach to government finances has relied on spending-driven deficits and a growing debt burden, causing a deterioration in the state of federal finances.
  • While deficits can sometimes be justified in certain circumstances, perpetual spending-driven deficits have become the norm rather than a temporary exception for the federal government. The $39.8 billion deficit expected in 2024/25 is the 17th consecutive annual deficit, and deficits are expected to continue into the foreseeable future.
  • Deficits have helped drive federal gross debt from 53.0% of the economy ($1.1 trillion) in 2014/15 up to an expected 69.8% ($2.1 trillion) in 2024/25.
  • This increase in the level of federal debt comes with costs and will result in higher taxes on Canadians.
  • It may be hard to comprehend the scale of the deficits and debt, so to contextualize the current state of federal finances this bulletin provides an example of what a median family’s household budget would look like in 2024 if it managed its finances the way the federal government does.
  • The median family earning $101,821 in 2024 would be spending $109,982 if it spent the way the federal government does. To cover the difference, it would put $8,161 on a credit card, despite already being $427,759 in debt.
  • Of the total amount spent, $11,066 would go towards interest on the debt his year. Simply put, a Canadian family that chose to spend like the federal government would be in financial trouble.

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Business

Trump confirms 35% tariff on Canada, warns more could come

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Quick Hit:

President Trump on Thursday confirmed a sweeping new 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1, citing Canada’s failure to curb fentanyl trafficking and retaliatory trade actions.

Key Details:

  • In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump said the new 35% levy is in response to Canada’s “financial retaliation” and its inability to stop fentanyl from reaching the U.S.
  • Trump emphasized that Canadian businesses that relocate manufacturing to the U.S. will be exempt and promised expedited approvals for such moves.
  • The administration has already notified 23 countries of impending tariffs following the expiration of a 90-day negotiation window under Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade policy.

Diving Deeper:

President Trump escalated his tariff strategy on Thursday, formally announcing a 35% duty on all Canadian imports effective August 1. The move follows what Trump described as a breakdown in trade cooperation and a failure by Canada to address its role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

“It is a Great Honor for me to send you this letter in that it demonstrates the strength and commitment of our Trading Relationship,” Trump wrote to Prime Minister Mark Carney. He added that the tariff response comes after Canada “financially retaliated” against the U.S. rather than working to resolve the flow of fentanyl across the northern border.

Trump’s letter made clear the tariff will apply broadly, separate from any existing sector-specific levies, and included a warning that “goods transshipped to evade this higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff.” The president also hinted that further retaliation from Canada could push rates even higher.

However, Trump left the door open for possible revisions. “If Canada works with me to stop the flow of Fentanyl, we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter,” he said, adding that tariffs “may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship.”

Canadian companies that move operations to the U.S. would be exempt, Trump said, noting his administration “will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely — In other words, in a matter of weeks.”

The U.S. traded over $762 billion in goods with Canada in 2024, with a trade deficit of $63.3 billion, a figure Trump called a “major threat” to both the economy and national security.

Speaking with NBC News on Thursday, Trump suggested even broader tariff hikes are coming, floating the idea of a 15% or 20% blanket rate on all imports. “We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay,” he told Meet the Press moderator Kristen Welker, adding that “the tariffs have been very well-received” and noting that the stock market had hit new highs that day.

The Canadian announcement is part of a broader global tariff rollout. In recent days, Trump has notified at least 23 countries of new levies and revealed a separate 50% tariff on copper imports.

“Not everybody has to get a letter,” Trump said when asked if other leaders would be formally notified. “You know that. We’re just setting our tariffs.”

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Business

UN’s ‘Plastics Treaty’ Sports A Junk Science Wrapper

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Craig Rucker

According to a study in Science Advances, over 90% of ocean plastic comes from just 10 rivers, eight of which are in Asia. The United States, by contrast, contributes less than 1%. Yet Pew treats all nations as equally responsible, promoting one-size-fits-all policies that fail to address the real source of the issue.

Just as people were beginning to breathe a sigh of relief thanks to the Trump administration’s rollback of onerous climate policies, the United Nations is set to finalize a legally binding Global Plastics Treaty by the end of the year that will impose new regulations, and, ultimately higher costs, on one of the world’s most widely used products.

Plastics – derived from petroleum – are found in everything from water bottles, tea bags, and food packaging to syringes, IV tubes, prosthetics, and underground water pipes.  In justifying the goal of its treaty to regulate “the entire life cycle of plastic – from upstream production to downstream waste,” the U.N. has put a bull’s eye on plastic waste.  “An estimated 18 to 20 percent of global plastic waste ends up in the ocean,” the UN says.

As delegates from over 170 countries prepare for the final round of negotiations in Geneva next month, debate is intensifying over the future of plastic production, regulation, and innovation. With proposals ranging from sweeping bans on single-use plastics to caps on virgin plastic output, policymakers are increasingly citing the 2020 Pew Charitable Trusts reportBreaking the Plastic Wave, as one of the primary justifications.

But many of the dire warnings made in this report, if scrutinized, ring as hollow as an empty PET soda bottle. Indeed, a closer look reveals Pew’s report is less a roadmap to progress than a glossy piece of junk science propaganda—built on false assumptions and misguided solutions.

Pew’s core claim is dire: without urgent global action, plastic entering the oceans will triple by 2040. But this alarmist forecast glosses over a fundamental fact—plastic pollution is not a global problem in equal measure. According to a study in Science Advances, over 90% of ocean plastic comes from just 10 rivers, eight of which are in Asia. The United States, by contrast, contributes less than 1%. Yet Pew treats all nations as equally responsible, promoting one-size-fits-all policies that fail to address the real source of the issue.

This blind spot has serious consequences. Pew’s solutions—cutting plastic production, phasing out single-use items, and implementing rigid global regulations—miss the mark entirely. Banning straws in the U.S. or taxing packaging in Europe won’t stop waste from being dumped into rivers in countries with little or no waste infrastructure. Policies targeting Western consumption don’t solve the problem—they simply shift it or, worse, stifle useful innovation.

The real tragedy isn’t plastic itself, but the mismanagement of plastic waste—and the regulatory stranglehold that blocks better solutions. In many countries, recycling is a government-run monopoly with little incentive to innovate. Meanwhile, private-sector entrepreneurs working on advanced recycling, biodegradable materials, and AI-powered sorting systems face burdensome red tape and market distortion.

Pew pays lip service to innovation but ultimately favors centralized planning and control. That’s a mistake. Time and again, it’s been technology—not top-down mandates—that has delivered environmental breakthroughs.

What the world needs is not another top-down, bureaucratic report like Pew’s, but an open dialogue among experts, entrepreneurs, and the public where new ideas can flourish. Imagine small-scale pyrolysis units that convert waste into fuel in remote villages, or decentralized recycling centers that empower informal waste collectors. These ideas are already in development—but they’re being sidelined by policymakers fixated on bans and quotas.

Worse still, efforts to demonize plastic often ignore its benefits. Plastic is lightweight, durable, and often more environmentally efficient than alternatives like glass or aluminum. The problem isn’t the material—it’s how it has been managed after its use. That’s a “systems” failure, not a material flaw.

Breaking the Plastic Wave champions a top-down, bureaucratic vision that limits choice, discourages private innovation, and rewards entrenched interests under the guise of environmentalism. Many of the groups calling for bans are also lobbying for subsidies and regulatory frameworks that benefit their own agendas—while pushing out disruptive newcomers.

With the UN expected to finalize the treaty by early 2026, nations will have to face the question of ratification.  Even if the Trump White House refuses to sign the treaty – which is likely – ordinary Americans could still feel the sting of this ill-advised scheme.  Manufacturers of life-saving plastic medical devices, for example, are part of a network of global suppliers.  Companies located in countries that ratify the treaty will have no choice but to pass the higher costs along, and Americans will not be spared.

Ultimately, the marketplace of ideas—not the offices of policy NGOs—will deliver the solutions we need. It’s time to break the wave of junk science—not ride it.

Craig Rucker is president of the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org).

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