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Election year or not, 2024 promises winds of change: Jack Mintz

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From the MacDonald Laurier Institute

By Jack Mintz

Governments are going to have to address sluggish productivity growth. Either that or get turfed at the polls

Last week, I summed up 2023 as a year of poor economic performance, with high interest rates, declining real per capita GDP and shortages of housing and health care. Should we expect more of the same from 2024 or something better and brighter?

Although high interest rates have made headway in controlling inflation, they come at a cost. BMO predicts Canada’s GDP growth will fall to 0.5 per cent (from just one per cent this year) even with continuing high immigration levels. Per capita GDP will thus likely take a hit again, falling by at least two per cent, and the unemployment rate could edge up by a point to 6.4 per cent. That means the “misery index” — the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates — will remain virtually unchanged (9.2 per cent in 2024 vs. 9.3 per cent in 2023).
With the Bank of Canada, like other central banks, focused on its inflation target, the crucial question becomes whether federal and provincial policies switch over to combating weak economic growth and productivity.

In the short term, the Trudeau government seems fixated on new redistributive programs such as denticare and pharmacare, rather than addressing the alarming decline in per capita GDP. Quite the contrary, its primary “growth” policy is to pursue a fast-paced energy transition regardless of the immediate GDP loss. Few plans are in place to improve private investment in innovation and investment, not unless you count extraordinarily reckless auto subsidies. And in Ottawa regulations grow like weeds, slowing the pace of development.

The federal government and most provinces, especially B.C. and Ontario, are facing a surge in deficits without any real plan to improve their own productivity. Working with various governments, I am struck by how far behind the times public-sector technology often is. At a recent meeting in Ottawa, I saw some highly skilled civil servants wrestle with old printers trying to print out materials for review. A friend relates how because of lack of digitization it took a surprisingly long time just to get a list of past property tax payments from the city of Toronto. Few hospitals seem to be spending on new technologies that can process patients more quickly in emergency wards. With such poor technology, governments instead simply add more workers to their bloated bureaucracies.
Maybe 2024 will be the year in which governments finally focus on growth. If they don’t, they may find themselves turfed out at election time. Around the world, 2024 is the year of the election, with the most national elections ever: in 40 countries covering 42 per cent of global GDP. The major ones are in Bangladesh, Belgium, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Taiwan, the European Parliament and, of course, the United States. Even some authoritarian governments face their electorates this year, for instance, Iran, Russia and Venezuela.

Many of the genuine elections could have a big impact on geopolitics and the world economy. Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Investment Management, argues that “The world is now completely dependent on the good sense of leaders to avoid an Armageddon.” Stock markets should be priced to reflect this political risk. Political developments could erode global trade and co-operation and aggravate hostilities in Eastern Europe, East Asia and the Middle East.

For Canada, the critical election takes place in the United States. But whoever wins the presidency in November (or later!), we’re likely to be hit by increasing U.S. protectionism. And if U.S. per capita GDP continues to rise faster than ours, as it did over the last decade, we will either find a new economic path or watch skilled workers and business investment literally go south on us.

We aren’t due for an election until 2025 but rumours abound that the Jekyll-and-Hyde NDP will finally act out its criticisms of Liberal policy and pull the plug this year. The Liberals won’t trigger an election if they continue to trail the Conservatives by 10 points or more. But the NDP may figure it can pick up seats, especially in Ontario.

With the winds of change blowing, Canada may see federal and provincial governments try a different approach to economic policy, one focused on economic growth rather than just redistribution. Both levels of government need to address our falling per capita GDP. If they do, Canadians will have something to cheer about by the end of 2024.

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Kennedy to cut 10,000 HHS employees to reduce ‘bureaucratic sprawl’

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From The Center Square

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The changes are expected to reduce the agency’s headcount from 82,000 to 62,000 full-time employees.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a significant restructuring of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Thursday in a move to streamline the huge federal agency and cut costs.

Kennedy plans to trim about 10,000 employees from the agency’s workforce in addition to employees who left as part of a Deferred Resignation Program, similar to a buy out, earlier this year. The move is expected to save about $1.8 billion.

Kennedy said the restructuring won’t affect the agency’s critical services. When combined with HHS’ other efforts, including early retirement, the changes are expected to reduce the agency’s headcount from 82,000 to 62,000 full-time employees. The restructuring will also align the department with Kennedy’s goals for a healthier U.S. population.

“We aren’t just reducing bureaucratic sprawl. We are realigning the organization with its core mission and our new priorities in reversing the chronic disease epidemic,” Kennedy said. “This Department will do more – a lot more – at a lower cost to the taxpayer.”

Kennedy also said the restructuring of the department’s 28 divisions will get rid of redundant units, consolidating them into “15 new divisions, including a new Administration for a Healthy America, or AHA, and will centralize core functions such as Human Resources, Information Technology, Procurement, External Affairs, and Policy.” Regional offices will be reduced from 10 to 5.

The overhaul will implement the new “HHS priority of ending America’s epidemic of chronic illness by focusing on safe, wholesome food, clean water, and the elimination of environmental toxins. These priorities will be reflected in the reorganization of HHS.”

Kennedy also said the restructuring would improve taxpayers’ experience with HHS by making the agency more responsive and efficient. He also said the changes would ensure that Medicare, Medicaid, and other essential health services remain intact.

The Administration for a Healthy America will combine multiple agencies – the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health, Health Resources and Services Administration, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, and National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health — into a single, unified entity, Kennedy said.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will get the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, which is responsible for national disaster and public health emergency response.

“Over time, bureaucracies like HHS become wasteful and inefficient even when most of their staff are dedicated and competent civil servants,” Kennedy said. “This overhaul will be a win-win for taxpayers and for those that HHS serves.”

Among the cuts: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration will shed about 3,500 full-time employees. Officials said the reduction won’t affect drug, medical device, or food reviewers, nor will it impact inspectors. The CDC will drop about 2,400 employees. The National Institutes of Health will cut about 1,200 employees. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services will cut about 300 employees. The reorganization won’t affect Medicare and Medicaid services, officials said.

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Feds Spent Roughly $1 Billion To Conduct Survey That Could’ve Been Done For $10,000, Musk Says

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Hailey Gomez

The Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE’s) Elon Musk said Thursday on Fox News that the group found the federal government spent almost $1 billion on a survey that could’ve only cost thousands.

Following President Donald Trump entering office in January, his administration pushed for Musk and DOGE to comb through the government’s spending and identify potential cuts to save taxpayer dollars. On “Special Report with Bret Baier,” the Fox News host sat with Musk and his DOGE team and asked the billionaire what has been the most “astonishing thing” he’s witnessed so far in this process.

“The sheer amount of waste and fraud in the government,” Musk said. “It is astonishing. It’s mind-blowing. We routinely encounter waste of a billion dollars or more, casually.”

“For example, like the simple survey that was literally [a] 10 questions survey. You could do it with SurveyMonkey, [which] would cost about $10,000. The government was being charged almost a billion dollars for that,” Musk added.

WATCH:

Baier could be seen interrupting Musk as he sounded astonished, later asking, “For just a survey?”

Musk responded and said the survey was essentially pointless as it had no “feedback loop.”

“A billion dollars for a simple online survey — ‘Do you like the National Park?,’ and then there appeared to be no feedback loop for what would be done with that survey,” Musk said. “So the survey would just go into nothing. It was insane.”

In February, Democrats’ opposition to Musk’s and DOGE’s place in the Trump administration began to ramp up after the billionaire announced during an X discussion that he and the president had agreed to upend the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Musk warned the agency was wasting billions of taxpayer dollars.

Some of the programs funded through USAID had not only attempted to advance a radical leftist agenda worldwide, but some had a high risk of landing in the Taliban’s hands and also aiding an organization linked to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Baier told Musk how he and DOGE technically had 130 days as a “special government employee,” asking if he believes he will be able to complete his task in the time frame allotted.

“I think we will have accomplished most of the work required to reduce the deficit by a trillion dollars within that time frame,” Musk said.

“We are cutting the waste and fraud in real time. So every day like that passes, our goal is to reduce the waste and fraud by $4 billion a day, every day, seven days a week. So far we are succeeding,” Musk added.

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