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Trudeau’s Delusion Meets Trump’s Tariffs: 25% Hit on Canada and Mexico Could Cripple Economies Overnight!

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17 minute read

The Opposition with Dan Knight

In a fiery Truth Social post on November 25th, Donald Trump made his position crystal clear: the days of open borders, unchecked drug smuggling, and illegal immigration are over. The president-elect, set to take office in January, declared that one of his first actions as commander-in-chief will be to slap a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada until both nations “use their absolute right and power” to stop the flow of drugs and illegal immigrants into the United States.

The Trump Doctrine Returns

This announcement serves as a bold reminder of Trump’s “America First” strategy, which dominated his first presidency. According to Trump, the current state of the U.S.-Mexico border is a “national emergency,” with caravans from Mexico allegedly bringing record levels of drugs like fentanyl and waves of illegal migrants. Canada isn’t off the hook either, as Trump accuses Justin Trudeau’s government of maintaining what he calls “ridiculous open borders” that have contributed to the crisis.

“Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem,” Trump stated. “Until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

Economic Weapons Locked and Loaded

The proposed tariffs are no small matter. A 25% import tax on goods from Canada and Mexico could cripple their export-driven economies, both of which are heavily reliant on U.S. trade:

  • Mexico: Over 80% of its exports head to the U.S. A 25% tariff would devastate industries like auto manufacturing, agriculture, and electronics.
  • Canada: With 75% of exports destined for the U.S., Canadian businesses are bracing for significant disruptions to key sectors, including energy and auto parts.

Experts warn that these tariffs would also raise prices for American consumers. But Trump’s post signals he’s unfazed by potential backlash. “It’s time for these countries to pay a very big price,” he declared, echoing his tough-on-trade rhetoric from the 2016 campaign trail.

The Bureau – Canada’s Role in the Fentanyl Epidemic

 

According to The Bureau, U.S. investigators have uncovered a direct connection between Canadian cities—particularly Toronto and Vancouver—and transnational fentanyl money-laundering networks. These networks, allegedly run by Triads with ties to Beijing, are laundering cash for Mexican cartels smuggling fentanyl precursors from China.

David Asher, a former Trump administration official and DEA consultant, didn’t mince words in his interview with The Bureau. He stated that U.S. intelligence points to Canada as the “command and control” hub for these networks, which have fueled the devastating fentanyl crisis.

“When we seized their phones, we’d see Canada light up like a Christmas tree,” Asher said, highlighting how Toronto and British Columbia play central roles in these operations.

Canada’s Tariff Crisis: The Numbers Don’t Lie

 

Let’s dig into the cold, hard facts, courtesy of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, and they’re downright devastating. Trump’s proposed tariffs aren’t just a political statement—they’re an economic wrecking ball aimed squarely at Canada’s most vulnerable industries. For Justin Trudeau’s government and hapless premiers like David Eby, these numbers are a brutal wake-up call.

The Trade Dependency Trap

Canada’s economic lifeblood is deeply tied to the United States, with 41% of Ontario’s GDP and a staggering two-thirds of New Brunswick’s GDP linked to cross-border trade. And it’s not just Canada feeling the squeeze—states like Michigan (14% GDP dependency) and Illinois (10.2%) rely heavily on Canadian trade.

The kicker? Nearly 63% of Canadian exports to the U.S. are intermediate inputs, meaning they’re critical components for American manufacturing. Canada isn’t just exporting products; it’s exporting the gears that keep U.S. industries turning.

Energy and Autos: The Collateral Damage

Consider this: in the first half of 2024 alone, Canada exported $85 billion in energy and $40 billion in auto parts to the U.S. A 25% tariff would obliterate these sectors, dragging down both economies in the process. And while Trudeau and his team posture about “standing united,” it’s clear their lack of preparation will only deepen the pain for Canadians.

Tariff Fallout: A National Recession Looms

The numbers paint a grim picture: a 25% tariff would deliver a 2.6% GDP decline annually for Canada, costing the average Canadian $2,000 CAD per year in lost income. Add in retaliatory tariffs, and this spirals into a full-blown recession, with cascading impacts on productivity, supply chains, and jobs.

  • Auto/Transport Exports: Down 10 percentage points.
  • Basic Metals Exports: Down 9 percentage points.
  • Chemicals and Paper Products: Exports drop by 8% and 7%, respectively.
  • Overall Sector Decline: A staggering 22 percentage points for critical industries.

Meanwhile, cross-border investment—once a pillar of Canada-U.S. relations—is under threat. Canadian investments in the U.S. total $1.1 trillion, but a tariff war risks destabilizing these flows and gutting the broader economic relationship.

Last Weeks Spin Piece from the Canadian Press

As we look at the fallout from Trump’s 25% tariff announcement, let’s take a moment to laugh at this spin piece from the Canadian Press that came out just last week. The article tried to paint a picture of Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly claiming that Donald Trump’s return to the White House has somehow boosted Canada’s influence on the world stage. Yes, you heard that right—Canada, the same country with open borders, an overreliance on U.S. trade, and a prime minister whose leadership is about as effective as a broken clock, is supposedly advising the world on how to handle Trump.

Joly boldly declared from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, “No country understands the United States better than Canada.” According to her, nations are lining up to learn from Canada’s experience with Trump, as though Trudeau and his team have some masterclass on navigating Trump’s policies. Fast forward to today, with Trump poised to slam Canada with tariffs that could destroy their economy, and the absurdity of this claim is glaring.

This narrative that Canada is a calm, steady hand amid Trump’s return is nothing more than a fantasy. While Joly and Trudeau were hobnobbing at summits, Trump was gearing up to deliver real consequences. His 25% tariff on Canadian imports isn’t hypothetical—it’s a financial wrecking ball aimed at an economy that relies on U.S. trade for survival. Energy exports, autos, and agriculture—the pillars of Canada’s economy—will take a direct hit. But instead of preparing for this, Joly was busy spinning a tale of Canada’s supposed “influence.”

And let’s not forget what Joly was selling in that article. “Canada’s influence is actually increasing because of the impacts that the world is now facing with the new administration.” Increasing? On what planet? Trump’s tariffs make it clear that Canada isn’t leading anything; it’s scrambling to react.

The article also floated the idea that Trudeau was in a “privileged position” because of his past dealings with Trump. Let’s recall how that went, shall we? Trudeau was caught mocking Trump on a hot mic during a G7 summit, embarrassing himself and the country in front of world leaders. His government barely held onto a renegotiated NAFTA—now the USMCA—that Trump rewrote to suit America’s interests. If this is the kind of experience Trudeau brings to the table, it’s no wonder Canada is in trouble.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Press tries to prop up Trudeau as some staunch defender of “rules-based trade,” as though those rules mean anything when Trump has the leverage to rewrite them. Joly spoke about sending “clear messages” to Beijing, yet Trump’s tariff threats expose just how little Canada has done to address the very issues Trump is targeting. Let’s not forget The Bureau’s report on Canada’s role in fentanyl money laundering, with Toronto and Vancouver lighting up as command centers for Triads laundering cash from Mexican cartels. Canada’s failures are part of the problem Trump is confronting.

And here’s the kicker: as of today, neither Trudeau nor Joly has made a peep about Trump’s tariff announcement. No tweets, no press statements, no leadership—just silence. So much for being the world’s go-to expert on Trump. Canada’s leaders are AWOL while Trump tightens the economic screws.

While our beloved PM is silent, Jagmeet Singh, ever the opportunist, couldn’t resist wading into the chaos with his usual brand of hollow theatrics. “Stand up and fight like hell,” he bellowed at Justin Trudeau on Twitter, as though anyone has ever mistaken Singh for a warrior of any kind. Let’s be honest—Singh’s idea of “fighting like hell” probably involves drafting another toothless motion in Parliament or throwing shade on social media while offering zero solutions. This is the same guy who props up Trudeau’s government with his NDP-Liberal supply-and-confidence deal, enabling the very weakness he’s now trying to criticize. Spare us the tough talk, Jagmeet. Bootlicking Trudeau one day and grandstanding the next doesn’t exactly scream credibility.

And as for Trudeau and Mélanie Joly? Their performance over the last week has been nothing short of delusional. While Trump was setting the stage to unleash a 25% tariff that could dismantle Canada’s economy, Trudeau was busy posturing at international summits and snapping photos with global elites. Joly, for her part, claimed that Trump’s return to power somehow boosted Canada’s global influence—because apparently being a punching bag now counts as diplomacy.

This isn’t global influence; it’s global irrelevance. The Trudeau government spent the last week basking in delusion while Trump was preparing to drop the hammer. And now the clock has run out. Stay tuned—because while Trudeau dithers and Singh flails, the reckoning is here.

Final Thoughts

Trump campaigned on a clear and powerful message: tariffs are a weapon to protect American workers and restore national sovereignty. And, folks, he wasn’t wrong. Sure, input costs might rise. Sure, a few elites will clutch their pearls as their profits shrink. But this isn’t about them. This is about something bigger. It’s about standing up for the forgotten workers in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin who’ve watched their livelihoods vanish thanks to decades of globalist betrayal. Trump’s message is loud and clear: no more one-sided trade deals, no more globalist bull. America comes first.

And what about Canada? What has Justin Trudeau done? He’s alienated an entire nation while dividing our own country with his disastrous, virtue-signaling policies. Trudeau doesn’t just dislike the West—he actively works against it. The West pays the bills in this country, folks. Alberta’s oil sands, Saskatchewan’s agriculture, and British Columbia’s resources prop up this nation’s economy. And how does Trudeau repay them? By demonizing their industries, their workers, and their very way of life to appease his climate cult.

While Trudeau struts on the world stage preaching green fantasies, the West bears the cost. It’s their jobs, their industries, and their communities that are hollowed out to fund his carbon tax schemes. Now, with Trump’s tariffs about to slam Canada’s economy, the true cost of Trudeau’s failures is finally coming home to roost.

How can Canada face this crisis when our so-called leader is more concerned with photo ops, platitudes, and meaningless “climate leadership” than standing up for our country? Trudeau has alienated our most important trading partner, antagonized the West, and is now leaving us unprepared for a showdown with Trump’s America.

Let’s look at the facts. Canada is at odds with China, embroiled in a cold war with India, and now staring down Trump’s tariffs. Every move Trudeau makes puts us further into isolation, weaker and more vulnerable. So here’s the question: can we really afford another year of this man at the helm?

The Trudeau government has run out of excuses, out of allies, and now, out of time. This isn’t just about whether Canada can survive Trump’s tariffs. It’s about whether we can survive another year of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. The reckoning is here, and Canada deserves better.

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Business

ESG Is Collapsing And Net Zero Is Going With It

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Blackmon

The chances of achieving the goal of net-zero by 2050 are basically net zero

Just a few years ago, ESG was all the rage in the banking and investing community as globalist governments in the western world focused on a failing attempt to subsidize an energy transition into reality. The strategy was to try to strangle fossil fuel industries by denying them funding for major projects, with major ESG-focused institutional investors like BlackRock and State Street, and big banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs leveraging their control of trillions of dollars in capital to lead the cause.

But a funny thing happened on the way to a green Nirvana: It turned out that the chosen rent-seeking industries — wind, solar and electric vehicles — are not the nifty plug-and-play solutions they had been cracked up to be.

Even worse, the advancement of new technologies and increased mining of cryptocurrencies created enormous new demand for electricity, resulting in heavy new demand for finding new sources of fossil fuels to keep the grid running and people moving around in reliable cars.

In other words, reality butted into the green narrative, collapsing the foundations of the ESG movement. The laws of physics, thermodynamics and unanticipated consequences remain laws, not mere suggestions.

Making matters worse for the ESG giants, Texas and other states passed laws disallowing any of these firms who use ESG principles to discriminate against their important oil, gas and coal industries from investing in massive state-governed funds. BlackRock and others were hit with sanctions by Texas in 2023. More recently, Texas and 10 other states sued Blackrock and other big investment houses for allegedly violating anti-trust laws.

As the foundations of the ESG movement collapse, so are some of the institutions that sprang up around it. The United Nations created one such institution, the “Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative,” whose participants maintain pledges to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and adhere to detailed plans to reach that goal.

The problem with that is there is now a growing consensus that a) the forced march to a green energy transition isn’t working and worse, that it can’t work, and b) the chances of achieving the goal of net-zero by 2050 are basically net zero. There is also a rising consensus among energy companies of a pressing need to prioritize matters of energy security over nebulous emissions reduction goals that most often constitute poor deployments of capital. Even as the Biden administration has ramped up regulations and subsidies to try to force its transition, big players like ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, and Shell have all redirected larger percentages of their capital budgets away from investments in carbon reduction projects back into their core oil-and-gas businesses.

The result of this confluence of factors and events has been a recent rush by big U.S. banks and investment houses away from this UN-run alliance. In just the last two weeks, the parade away from net zero was led by major banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and, most recently, JP Morgan. On Thursday, the New York Post reported that both BlackRock and State Street, a pair of investment firms who control trillions of investor dollars (BlackRock alone controls more than $10 trillion) are on the brink of joining the flood away from this increasingly toxic philosophy.

In June, 2023, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink made big news when told an audience at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Aspen, Colorado that he is “ashamed of being part of this [ESG] conversation.” He almost immediately backed away from that comment, restating his dedication to what he called “conscientious capitalism.” The takeaway for most observers was that Fink might stop using the term ESG in his internal and external communications but would keep right on engaging in his discriminatory practices while using a different narrative to talk about it.

But this week’s news about BlackRock and the other big firms feels different. Much has taken place in the energy space over the last 18 months, none of it positive for the energy transition or the net-zero fantasy. Perhaps all these big banks and investment funds are awakening to the reality that it will take far more than devising a new way of talking about the same old nonsense concepts to repair the damage that has already been done to the world’s energy system.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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Fraser Institute

Trudeau’s legacy includes larger tax burden for middle-class Canadians

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

On Monday outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told Canadians he plans to resign, a reporter asked Trudeau to name his greatest accomplishments. In response, among other things, Trudeau said his government “reduced” taxes for the “middle class.” But this claim doesn’t withstand scrutiny.

After taking office in 2015, the Trudeau government reduced the second-lowest personal income tax rate from 22.0 per cent to 20.5 per cent—a change that was explicitly sold by Trudeau as a tax cut for the middle class. However, this change ultimately didn’t lower the amount of taxes paid by middle-class Canadians. Why?

Because the government simultaneously eliminated several tax credits—which are intended to reduce the amount of income taxes owed—including income splitting, the children’s fitness credit, children’s arts tax credit, and public transit tax credits. By eliminating these tax credits, the government helped simplify the tax system, which is a good thing, but it also raised the amount families pay in income taxes.

Consequently, most middle-income families now pay higher taxes. Specifically, a 2022 study published by the Fraser Institute found that nearly nine in 10 (86 per cent) middle-income families (earning household incomes between $84,625 and $118,007) experienced an increase in their federal personal income taxes as a result of the Trudeau government’s tax changes.

The study also found that other income groups experienced tax increases. Nearly three-quarters (73 per cent) of families with a household income between $54,495 and $84,624 paid higher taxes as a result of the tax changes. And across all income groups, 61 per cent of Canadian families faced higher personal income taxes than they did in 2015.

The Trudeau government also introduced a new top tax bracket on income over $200,000—which raised the top federal personal income tax rate from 29 per cent to 33 per cent—and other tax changes that increased the tax burden on Canadians including the recent capital gains tax hike. Prior to this hike, investors who sold capital assets (stocks, second homes, cottages, etc.) paid taxes on 50 per cent of the gain. Last year, the Trudeau government increased that share to 66.7 per cent for individual capital gains above $250,000 and all capital gains for corporations and trusts.

According to the Trudeau government, this change will only impact the “wealthiest” Canadians, but in fact it will impact many middle-class Canadians. For example, in 2018, half of all taxpayers who claimed more than $250,000 of capital gains in a year earned less than $117,592 in normal income. These include Canadians with modest annual incomes who own businesses, second homes or stocks, and who may choose to sell those assets once or infrequently in their lifetimes (when they retire, for example). These Canadians will feel the real-world effects of Trudeau’s capital gains tax hike.

While reflecting on his tenure, Prime Minister Trudeau said he was proud that his government reduced taxes for middle-class Canadians. In reality, taxes for middle-class families have increased since he took office. That’s a major part of his legacy as prime minister.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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