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Canadian Energy Centre

To reduce emissions, the world needs more LNG: report

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The LNG Canada export terminal is about 85 per cent complete. Photo courtesy LNG Canada

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Deborah Jaremko

Wood Mackenzie says spending needs to rise by $400 billion over the next decade

An additional $400 billion investment in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects around the world is needed over the next decade to ensure energy security and achieve emissions reductions, according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie.  

Without increased LNG supply, it said Asian countries in particular will continue to rely on high-emitting coal as they grow power generation. 

“On a global scale, limited supplies of LNG risks stalling progress towards 2050 net zero targets in the near term,” says the report by Wood Mackenzie and Petronas, one of the joint venture owners of the LNG Canada project.  

The fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rerouted LNG shipments from Asia to Europe, contributing to record coal consumption in 2022, analysts noted.  

“A key pillar of the energy transition is to reduce the consumption of coal. A critical step in that transition is to shift power production from coal to much lower-emissions gas. The shift helps drive immediate decarbonization while renewables, energy storage, and other clean energy technologies scale-up.” 

Power generation from natural gas reduces emissions by half on average, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). LNG from Canada can deliver an even bigger decrease, reducing emissions by up to 62 per cent, according to a 2020 study published in the Journal for Cleaner Production. 

Global natural gas use is rising, driving increased demand for LNG. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest outlook projects natural gas consumption will rise to 197 quadrillion BTU in 2050, up from 153 quadrillion BTU in 2022.  

“Gas can be used to not only replace coal for power generation, but also to provide fuel for blue hydrogen production, and as an essential source of flexibility as electricity grids incorporate increasingly large amounts of intermittent renewable generation,” Wood Mackenzie said.  

“Gas also plays a critical role in non-power sectors such as commercial and residential heating, as a feedstock for chemicals and fertilizers, and as an energy source for metals, cement, and other manufacturing processes.” 

Canadian LNG has advantages in a lower emission world, the report said.  

“Canada’s western ports are ideally positioned to supply growing Asian demand because its shipping routes aren’t dependent on an uncongested Panama Canal. The country is also poised to produce some of the lowest-emission LNG in the world,” Wood Mackenzie said.  

The low emissions per tonne of LNG in Canada come from shorter shipping distances to customers, a colder climate, the use of hydroelectricity, and methane emissions reduction from upstream natural gas production. 

Once it starts operating in 2025, LNG Canada will have emissions intensity of 0.15 per cent CO2 per tonne, less than half the global average of 0.35 per cent per tonne, according to Oxford Energy Institute.   

Proposed Indigenous-led project Cedar LNG would have emissions intensity of 0.08 per cent, and smaller-scale Woodfibre LNG would have emissions intensity of 0.04 per cent.   

“The gas and LNG supply and demand mismatch that spawned the current energy crisis and stalled energy transition progress can’t be repeated,” Wood Mackenzie said.  

“This will require a long-term commitment to expanding capacity to ensure reliable, increasingly low-emission, and affordable LNG that won’t be upended by future geopolitical and economic disruptions.” 

Alberta

Canada’s advantage as the world’s demand for plastic continues to grow

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

‘The demand for plastics reflects how essential they are in our lives’

From the clothes on your back to the containers for household products to the pipes and insulation in your home, plastics are interwoven into the fabric of day-to-day life for most Canadians.

And that reliance is projected to grow both in Canada and around the world in the next three decades

The Global Plastics Outlook, published by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), forecasts the use of plastics globally will nearly triple by 2060, driven by economic and population growth.  

The use of plastics is projected to double in OECD countries like Canada, the United States and European nations, but the largest increases will take place in Asia and Africa. 

“The demand for plastics reflects how essential they are in our lives, whether it is packaging, textiles, building materials or medical equipment,” says Christa Seaman, vice-president, plastics with the Chemical Industry Association of Canada (CIAC), which represents Canada’s plastics producers.  

She says as countries look to meet climate and sustainability goals, demand for plastic will grow. 

“Plastics in the market today demonstrate their value to our society. Plastics are used to make critical components for solar panels and wind turbines. But they also can play a role in reducing weight in transportation or in ensuring goods that are transported have less weight in their packaging or in their products.” 

Canada produces about $35 billion worth of plastic resin and plastic products per year, or over five per cent of Canadian manufacturing sales, according to a 2019 report published by the federal government.  

Seaman says Canadian plastic producers have competitive advantages that position them to grow as demand rises at home and abroad. In Alberta, a key opportunity is the abundant supply of natural gas used to make plastic resin.  

“As industry and consumer expectations shift for production to reduce emissions, Canada, and particularly Alberta, are extremely well placed to meet increased demand thanks to its supply of low-carbon feedstock. Going forward, production with less emissions is going to be important for companies,” Seaman says.  

“You can see that with Dow Chemical’s decision to spend $8.8 billion on a net zero facility in Alberta.” 

While modern life would not be possible without plastics, the CIAC says there needs to be better post-use management of plastic products including advanced recycling, or a so-called “circular economy” where plastics are seen as a resource or feedstock for new products, not a waste. 

Some companies have already started making significant investments to generate recyclable plastics.  

For example, Inter Pipeline Ltd.’s $4.3 billion Heartland Petrochemical Complex near Edmonton started operating in 2023. It produces a recyclable plastic called polypropylene from propane, with 65 per cent lower emissions than the global average thanks to the facility’s integrated design. 

Achieving a circular economy – where 90 per cent of post-consumer plastic waste is diverted or recycled – would benefit Canada’s economy, according to the CIAC.  

Deloitte study, commissioned by Environment & Climate Change Canada, estimated diverting or reusing 90 per cent of post-consumer plastic waste by 2030 will save $500 million annually while creating 42,000 direct and indirect jobs. It would also cut Canada’s annual CO2 emissions by 1.8 megatonnes.  

Right now, about 85 per cent of plastics end up in Canada’s landfills. To reach the 90 per cent diversion rate, Seaman says Canada must improve its infrastructure to collect and process the plastic waste currently being landfilled. 

But she also says the industry rather than municipalities need to take responsibility for recycling plastic waste.  

“This concept is referred to as extended producer responsibility. Municipalities have the responsibility for managing recycling within a waste management system. Given the competing costs and priorities, they don’t have the incentive to invest into recycling infrastructure when landfill space was the most cost-effective solution for them,” she says.  

“Putting that responsibility on the producers who put the products on the market makes the most sense…The industry is adapting, and we hope government policy will recognize this opportunity for Canada to meet our climate goals while growing our economy.” 

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Business

Decarbonization deal opens new chapter in Alberta-Japan relationship

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From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

Agreement represents a homecoming for JAPEX, which first started work in the Alberta oil sands in 1978

new agreement that will see Japan Petroleum Exploration Company (JAPEX) invest in decarbonization opportunities in Alberta made history while also being rooted in the past, in the eyes of Gary Mar. 

JAPEX is seeking to develop projects in carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen and bioenergy. It’s part of the company’s JAPEX2050 strategy toward carbon neutrality. 

“This new endeavour is a great opportunity that demonstrates the world is changing but the relationships endure,” says Mar, the province’s former trade envoy to Asia and the current CEO of the Canada West Foundation 

“Alberta’s very first international office was opened in Tokyo in 1981. And we have built a tremendous soft infrastructure that includes partnerships between a dozen Alberta and Japanese universities.” 

For JAPEX, the agreement represents something of a homecoming for the company that first started work in the Alberta oil sands in 1978 and operated one of the first in situ (or drilled) oil projects for nearly two decades before selling its stake in 2018. 

We are now aiming to come back to Alberta and contribute to its decarbonization,” JAPEX president of overseas business Tomomi Yamada said in a statement.  

Mar says the memorandum of understanding signed this March between JAPEX and the crown corporation Invest Alberta stems from a strong relationship built over decades.  

“You cant be considered a reliable partner for a new venture if you havent been a reliable partner for decades in the past,” says Mar.  

Economies change and worlds needs change but strong relationships are important factor in whom you do business with.” 

Alberta’s established CCS infrastructure has already attracted new investment, including Air Products’ $1.6-billion net zero hydrogen complex and Dow Chemicals’ $8.8-billion net zero petrochemical complex 

Mar sees JAPEX’s deal with Invest Alberta opening a whole new market of potential carbon neutral investors in the Pacific Rim. 

“When other countries who are partners in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) see JAPEX invest in this decarbonization opportunities and net zero projects in Alberta, it will send a very clear signal to others in the TPP about the potential,” Mar says.  

“This deal may come from the decades-long relationship between Alberta and Japan but can also serve as a signpost for decades to come.” 

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