S&P Global Commodity Insights found that a 40 per cent emissions cap could lead to a reduction in oil and natural gas production of one million barrels per day by 2030 and a 2.1-million barrel reduction by 2035.

Independent analysis by the Conference Board of Canada, Deloitte and S&P Global tell the same story: the federal government’s proposed cap would require oil and gas production cuts that would put people out of work and drain billions from Canada’s economy. Despite these reports and continued opposition from many provinces, industry, businesses, experts and Canadians, the federal government will soon release its draft regulations.

The proposed emissions cap is a production cap. S&P Global Commodity Insights found that a 40 per cent emissions cap could lead to a reduction in oil and natural gas production of one million barrels per day by 2030 and a 2.1-million barrel reduction by 2035. According to the Conference Board of Canada and Deloitte, the cap could amount to a more than 10 per cent reduction in oil production and a 16 per cent reduction in conventional gas production in Alberta in 2030.

Alberta’s government is launching a national advertising campaign to inform Canadians that this cap will lead our province and country into economic and societal decline. Alberta would be hit hardest and in 2040, the province’s GDP would shrink by 4.5 per cent. Canada’s would decline by 1 per cent. The cap would result in 150,000 Canadians losing their jobs and the loss of $14 billion a year from the economy. The average Canadian family would be left with up to $419 less per month to spend on groceries, housing or fuel, impacting the quality of life Canadians enjoy coast to coast to coast.

All Canadians deserve to know the dangers of this cap, which will negatively impact their families without reducing global emissions whatsoever.

“Once again, Ottawa is attempting to set policies that are shortsighted and reckless. We’re challenging proposed policy that would stifle our energy industry, kill jobs and ruin economies by launching a national campaign that tells Ottawa to “Scrap the Cap.” We’re telling the federal government to forget this reckless and extreme idea and get behind Alberta’s leadership by investing in real solutions that cut emissions, not Canada’s prosperity.”

The proposed cap will put safe, reliable and secure energy at risk while costing tens of thousands of jobs and billions in lost federal revenue that pays for important programs, services and infrastructure. This means lost jobs, hurt families shuttered businesses and less revenue going to the schools, hospitals, programs and services every Canadian relies on.

If left unchanged, this cap would force Canada’s energy industry to curtail production at the expense of struggling Canadian families. When production is cut, jobs, tax revenues and the economy are cut too. It is, in effect, a cap on prosperity that would be felt across the country.

Alberta is encouraging Canadians to visit the Scrap the Cap website and tell Ottawa they cannot and will not support a cap on energy production that leaves Canadians with a lower standard of living and reduced services. Print, television and social media advertisements will run nationwide from Oct. 15 to the end of November to urge Canadians to contact their member of parliament (MP) and share their thoughts. The Scrap the Cap website includes a letter that can be sent electronically.

“We will not stand by while the federal government threatens tens of thousands of jobs. This production cap means billions in revenues down the drain, and we will not let our province’s – or our country’s – economic future be gutted by an out-of-touch federal government. There is a way to reduce emissions without killing the economy… but this unconstitutional production cap is not it.”

“A cap on oil and gas production will kill jobs and investment and adds to the growing list of federal programs that will kill investments in decarbonization. All Canadians need to let Ottawa know how this cap hurts Alberta and risks Canada’s energy security.”

Alberta is reducing emissions through common sense, incentives and technologies, not taxes or punitive regulations. The oil sands emissions intensity per barrel has fallen 23 per cent since 2009 and is expected to decline another 28 per cent by 2035. Alberta’s overall emissions, electricity emissions and methane emissions are all declining, even as energy demand rises and the economy grows.

The province aspires to be carbon neutral by 2050 without cutting jobs or compromising affordable, reliable and secure energy for Albertans, Canadians and the world.

Related information

• Scrap the Cap website
• Proposed federal oil and gas emissions cap regulatory framework: Government of Alberta technical submission
• Deloitte: Potential Economic Impact of the Proposed Federal Oil and Gas Emissions Cap 
• S&P Global Commodity Insights: Economic Impact Assessment of Canadian Conventional Oil and Gas
• Conference Board of Canada: Economic Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap on the Oil and Gas Sector
• Alberta’s emissions reduction and energy development plan

Related news

• It’s time to scrap the cap: Joint statement (May 27, 2024)

From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

By Nick Pope

Russia is dodging a U.S.-led sanction meant to limit its energy revenues by using a fleet of “shadow tankers” to sell oil at higher prices, according to The New York Times.

Led by the U.S., Western countries imposed a $60 per-barrel price cap on Russian oil after the Ukraine war started in February 2022, a policy proponents claimed would severely limit Russia’s ability to generate oil cash while falling sort of imposing onerous costs on developing countries. However, Russia has managed to sell about 70% of its oil sales above the West’s price by utilizing a fleet of “shadow tankers” — vessels that are unregistered or registered in nations that are not party to the price cap agreement — to dodge the restrictions, the NYT reported, citing a new report by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute.

In the first half of 2024, Russia managed to sell about 75 million barrels of oil each month using vessels with an average age of 18 years, according to the NYT. Russia spent about $10 billion to develop its “shadow tanker” fleet.

Ukraine Reportedly Sending Cooks, Mechanics To Frontlines Of War Against Russia As Manpower Problem Grows Worsehttps://t.co/aLDjzZsW9j

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 18, 2024

Moreover, ships that are a part of the Russian “shadow tanker” fleet or that are subject to sanctions for breaking the price cap carried a record amount of oil and related products in September, according to the NYT. Some of these vessels made deliveries to ports in China and India, buyers that have purchased considerable amounts of Russian oil despite the Western sanctions against Putin’s economy.

Some officials inside the Biden-Harris administration want to see the government take a harder line against the “shadow tanker” fleet to continue to squeeze Putin, but others are in favor of treading lightly out of concern that cracking down could put upward prices on energy prices with a pivotal presidential election looming, according to the NYT. More broadly, policymakers have been especially careful in how they’ve handled Russia’s energy industry given the risks of a hot war between Iran and Israel, which would likely drive prices up.

While the U.S. and allies will continue working on enforcement, Russia is still selling oil at suboptimal prices and spending billions on its “shadow tanker” fleet, meaning that the sanction is still a success even if it is being evaded to some degree, one U.S. official who requested anonymity to speak freely on the subject told the NYT.

The White House and the Department of the Treasury did not respond immediately to requests for comment.