Canadian Energy Centre
Nine major insights from Shell’s latest global LNG outlook
A worker at Shell’s Hazira LNG import terminal, about 250 kilometers from Mumbai, India. Photo courtesy Shell
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Led by growing demand in China and the need for energy security, LNG is playing an increasingly important role in global gas supply
Global energy giant Shell has released its latest outlook for world liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and demand through 2040. Here are nine key insights about what to expect in the future.
1. LNG is playing an increasingly important role in global gas supply. Total world LNG demand is set to continue growing beyond 2040.
2. Global LNG trade reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, an increase of 7 million tonnes compared to 2022. Over the last five years, LNG demand grew by 45 million tonnes, or 13 per cent.
3. In 2040, the world is expected to consume up to 685 million tonnes of LNG, an increase of nearly 70 per cent compared to 2023.
4. The United States became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023, shipping 86 million tonnes, followed by Australia, Qatar, Russia and Malaysia.
5. By 2030, North America will supply about 30 per cent of global LNG demand, led by natural gas from major basins including the Appalachia (Marcellus) play in the eastern United States and the Montney play in Alberta and British Columbia. But the global gas market is increasingly exposed to U.S. risks like the Biden administration’s pause on new LNG approvals.
6. China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth as the country’s industries seek to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas. With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkey combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution. China’s gas demand is expected to rise by more than 50 per cent by 2040.
7. Natural gas, delivered as LNG, provides flexibility to balance intermittent solar and wind power generation. In countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, gas provides short-term flexibility and long-term security of supply. Gas provides grid stability, enabling a higher share of renewables in power grids.
8. LNG continues to play a vital role in European energy security, with European nations importing more than 120 million tonnes in 2023, assisted by new regasification facilities. Europe will continue to rely on LNG to support its energy mix through 2030, even as total European natural gas demand is expected to decline by about 25 per cent.
9. South Asia and Southeast Asia are emerging as major LNG import regions, with Vietnam, and the Philippines starting to import LNG to backfill domestic gas declines. From less than 10 million tonnes in 2020, LNG imports to Thailand, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to rise to about 40 million tonnes in 2030 and more than 60 million tonnes in 2040.
Alberta
Heavy-duty truckers welcome new ‘natural gas highway’ in Alberta
Clean Energy Fuels CEO Andrew Littlefair, Tourmaline CEO Mike Rose, and Mullen Group chairman Murray Mullen attend the opening of a new Clean Energy/Tourmaline compressed natural gas (CNG) fuelling station in Calgary on Oct. 22, 2024. Photo courtesy Tourmaline
From the Canadian Energy Centre
New compressed natural gas fueling stations in Grande Prairie and Calgary join new stop in Edmonton
Heavy-duty truckers hauling everything from restaurant supplies to specialized oilfield services along one of Western Canada’s busiest corridors now have more access to a fuel that can help reduce emissions and save costs.
Two new fuelling stations serving compressed natural gas (CNG) rather than diesel in Grande Prairie and Calgary, along with a stop that opened in Edmonton last year, create the first phase of what proponents call a “natural gas highway”.
“Compressed natural gas is viable, it’s competitive and it’s good for the environment,” said Murray Mullen, chair of Mullen Group, which operates more than 4,300 trucks and thousands of pieces of equipment supporting Western Canada’s energy industry.
Right now, the company is running 19 CNG units and plans to deploy another 15 as they become available.
“They’re running the highways right now and they’re performing exceptionally well,” Mullen said on Oct. 22 during the ribbon-cutting ceremony opening the new station on the northern edge of Calgary along Highway 2.
“Our people love them, our customers love them and I think it’s going to be the way for the future to be honest,” he said.
Heavy-duty trucks at Tourmaline and Clean Energy’s new Calgary compressed natural gas fuelling station. Photo courtesy Tourmaline
According to Natural Resources Canada, natural gas burns more cleanly than gasoline or diesel fuel, producing fewer toxic pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change.
The two new CNG stops are part of a $70 million partnership announced last year between major Canadian natural gas producer Tourmaline and California-based Clean Energy Fuels.
Their deal would see up to 20 new CNG stations built in Western Canada over the next five years, daily filling up to 3,000 natural gas-fueled trucks.
One of North America’s biggest trucking suppliers to businesses including McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, Subway and Popeye’s says the new stations will help as it expands its fleet of CNG-powered vehicles across Canada.
Amy Senter, global vice-president of sustainability with Illinois-based Martin Brower, said in a statement that using more CNG is critical to the company achieving its emissions reduction targets.
For Tourmaline, delivering CNG to heavy-duty truckers builds on its multi-year program to displace diesel in its operations, primarily by switching drilling equipment to run on natural gas.
Between 2018 and 2022, the company displaced the equivalent of 36 Olympic-sized swimming pools worth of diesel that didn’t get used, or the equivalent emissions of about 58,000 passenger vehicles.
Tourmaline CEO Mike Rose speaks to reporters during the opening of a new Tourmaline/Clean Energy compressed natural gas fuelling station in Calgary on Oct. 22, 2024. Photo courtesy Tourmaline
Tourmaline CEO Mike Rose noted that the trucking sector switching fuel from diesel to natural gas is gaining momentum, notably in Asia.
A “small but growing” share of China’s trucking fleet moving to natural gas helped drive an 11 percent reduction in overall diesel consumption this June compared to the previous year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“China’s talking about 30 percent of the trucks sold going forward are to be CNG trucks, and it’s all about reducing emissions,” Rose said.
“It’s one global atmosphere. We’re going to reduce them here; they’re going to reduce them there and everybody’s a net winner.”
Switching from diesel to CNG is “extremely cost competitive” for trucking fleets, said Clean Energy CEO Andrew Littlefair.
“It will really move the big rigs that we need in Western Canada for the long distance and heavy loads,” he said.
Tourmaline and Clean Energy aim to have seven CNG fuelling stations operating by the end of 2025. Construction is set to begin in Kamloops, B.C., followed by Fort McMurray and Fort St. John.
“You’ll have that Western Canadian corridor, and then we’ll grow it from there,” Littlefair said.
Canadian Energy Centre
Alberta Indigenous energy ownership driving increased economic activity
In December 2023, the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation provided a $150 million loan guarantee to support the 12 Indigenous Communities of Wapiscanis Waseskwan Nipiy Limited Partnership (including the Peerless Trout First Nation) in financing an equity investment in oil and gas midstream infrastructure in the Clearwater play in Northern Alberta. Photo courtesy AIOC
From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
‘We live in a new world, and I’m excited about the possibilities’
Five pristine lakes sit in and around the Peerless Trout First Nation in the unbroken boreal forest of north-central Alberta about 200 kilometres north of Slave Lake.
When asked about the fishing, Tyler Letendre smiles wryly. “It lives up to the name,” says the Nation’s director of operations and economic development officer. “It’s peerless.”
The community’s leadership is exploring the idea of building a lodge to lure recreational anglers from across North America to reel in the large pike, trout and walleye that inhabit the dark blue waters in those lakes.
After joining the Clearwater Infrastructure Limited Partnership in December 2023 with 11 other Indigenous communities and Tamarack Valley Energy, they have the financial clout to develop a resort.
“Joining the partnership has been a game changer for our nation, 100 per cent. We won’t compromise on treaty rights, but we are big fans of economic growth,” says Letendre.
“The money provided by the federal government to First Nations isn’t enough to sustain the programs and infrastructure required so we have to generate our own income. Equity deals like Clearwater do that,” he says.
“We are shareholders along with major institutions. We now have banks who want to come invest in our communities. We live in a new world, and I’m excited about the possibilities.”
The growing number and value of Indigenous equity ownership deals in Alberta is helping fuel stronger participation in the province’s economy, according to a recently released report from ATB Financial and MNP.
The study concluded that total Indigenous economic activity in Alberta grew by a substantial 42 per cent between 2019 and 2023.
Last year, Indigenous-owned businesses generated $5.25 billion in economic output, $380 million in tax revenues and $1.33 billion in labour income from 25,800 full-time jobs.
The resource sector has an outsized impact in this area as its relationship with First Nations and Métis communities in Alberta has evolved and grown.
“The fastest growing and largest opportunities for Indigenous communities in Alberta come from the resource sector,” says Justin Bourque, president of Âsokan Generational Developments, a consultancy that specializes in partnerships between Indigenous communities and industry.
He says the evolution of the relationship between Indigenous communities and the resource sector has mirrored the broader progress of reconciliation.
“Our entire society is on a journey of reconciliation between Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities. The engagement and relationship between the resource industry and Indigenous has continued to evolve.”
In recent years, particularly following the creation of the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) in 2019, these relationships have increasingly moved from short-term benefits to long-term legacies through equity ownership deals like Peerless Trout’s agreement with Tamarack Energy.
ATB highlighted the Astisiy project in the oil sands region, a Cree word meaning “thread from sinew” that is used for Indigenous beading.
In September 2021, Suncor Energy and the AIOC enabled eight Indigenous communities to acquire 15 per cent ownership of the Northern Courier Pipeline, a 90-kilometre system that transports bitumen from the Fort Hills mine to the East Tank Farm north of Fort McMurray.
The community partners are projected to receive $16 million in annual payments from the deal.
Bourque’s Willow Lake Métis Nation has used its portion of the revenues to purchase a 205-acre parcel southeast of Fort McMurray, giving the community land to call its own.
“Ownership and partnership is the next logical evolution of the relationship between Indigenous communities and the energy sector,” says Bourque.
“Before Indigenous communities had the opportunity to invest in these resource assets, a lot of the economic value out of these investments would flow to institutional investors along with the corporation,” he says.
“By having some of those benefits flow into Indigenous communities, it builds both resilience by giving them financial sovereignty and allows that community to address priorities and needs determined by them, not somebody in Ottawa.”
Opportunities are now happening at the Peerless Trout First Nation.
“Our chief and council are in the best position to decide what works for the 900 members of Peerless Lake when it comes to how to invest the monies from the partnership, whether that’s in housing, education, health care, more post-secondary scholarships or building a hockey arena or community facility,” Letendre says.
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