Canadian Energy Centre
Nine major insights from Shell’s latest global LNG outlook

A worker at Shell’s Hazira LNG import terminal, about 250 kilometers from Mumbai, India. Photo courtesy Shell
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Led by growing demand in China and the need for energy security, LNG is playing an increasingly important role in global gas supply
Global energy giant Shell has released its latest outlook for world liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and demand through 2040. Here are nine key insights about what to expect in the future.
1. LNG is playing an increasingly important role in global gas supply. Total world LNG demand is set to continue growing beyond 2040.
2. Global LNG trade reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, an increase of 7 million tonnes compared to 2022. Over the last five years, LNG demand grew by 45 million tonnes, or 13 per cent.
3. In 2040, the world is expected to consume up to 685 million tonnes of LNG, an increase of nearly 70 per cent compared to 2023.
4. The United States became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023, shipping 86 million tonnes, followed by Australia, Qatar, Russia and Malaysia.
5. By 2030, North America will supply about 30 per cent of global LNG demand, led by natural gas from major basins including the Appalachia (Marcellus) play in the eastern United States and the Montney play in Alberta and British Columbia. But the global gas market is increasingly exposed to U.S. risks like the Biden administration’s pause on new LNG approvals.
6. China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth as the country’s industries seek to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas. With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkey combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution. China’s gas demand is expected to rise by more than 50 per cent by 2040.
7. Natural gas, delivered as LNG, provides flexibility to balance intermittent solar and wind power generation. In countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, gas provides short-term flexibility and long-term security of supply. Gas provides grid stability, enabling a higher share of renewables in power grids.
8. LNG continues to play a vital role in European energy security, with European nations importing more than 120 million tonnes in 2023, assisted by new regasification facilities. Europe will continue to rely on LNG to support its energy mix through 2030, even as total European natural gas demand is expected to decline by about 25 per cent.
9. South Asia and Southeast Asia are emerging as major LNG import regions, with Vietnam, and the Philippines starting to import LNG to backfill domestic gas declines. From less than 10 million tonnes in 2020, LNG imports to Thailand, Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to rise to about 40 million tonnes in 2030 and more than 60 million tonnes in 2040.
Alberta
Meet Marjorie Mallare, a young woman with a leading role at one of Canada’s largest refineries

Marjorie Mallare at Imperial Oil’s Strathcona refinery.
Fr0m the Canadian Energy Centre
By Cody Ciona
Mallare manages an all-female team of engineers helping keep operations smooth and safe
As the utilities and hydroprocessing technical lead for Imperial Oil’s Strathcona Refinery near Edmonton, 32-year-old Marjorie Mallare and her team help ensure operations run smoothly and safely at one of Canada’s largest industrial facilities.
The exciting part, she says, is that all four engineers she leads are female.
It’s part of the reason Mallare was named one of ten Young Women in Energy award winners for 2025.
“I hope they realize how important the work that they do is, inspiring and empowering women, connecting women and recognizing women in our industry,” she says.
“That can be very pivotal for young women, or really any young professional that is starting off their career.”
Born and raised in the Philippines, Mallare and her family moved to Edmonton near the end of junior high school.
Living in the industrial heartland of Alberta, it was hard not to see the opportunity present in the oil and gas industry.
When she started post-secondary studies at the University of Alberta in the early 2010s, the industry was booming.
“The amount of opportunities, at least when I started university, which was around 2011, was one of the high periods in our industry at the time. So, it was definitely very attractive,” Mallare says.
When choosing a discipline, engineering stood out.
“At the time, chemical engineering had the most number of females, so that was a contributing factor,” she says.
“Just looking at what’s available within the province, within the city, chemical engineering just seemed to offer a lot more opportunities, a lot more companies that I could potentially work for.”
Through work co-ops in oil and gas, her interest in a career in the industry continued to grow.
“It just kind of naturally happened. That drew my interest more and more, and it made it easier to find future opportunities,” Mallare says.
Following a work practicum with Imperial Oil and graduation, she started working with the company full time.
On the side, Mallare has also driven STEM outreach programs, encouraging young women to pursue careers in engineering.
In addition to supporting the Strathcona Refinery’s operations department, Mallare and her team work on sustainability-focused projects and reducing the refinery’s carbon footprint.
The 200,000 barrel per day facility represents about 30 per cent of Western Canada’s refining capacity.
“Eventually, our group will also be responsible for running the new renewable diesel unit that we’re planning to commission later this year,” says Mallare.
Once completed, the $720 million project will be the largest renewable diesel facility in Canada, producing more than one billion litres of biofuel annually.
Projects like these are why Mallare believes Canada will continue to be a global energy leader.
“We’re leading others already with regards to pursuing more sustainable alternatives and reducing our carbon footprints overall. That’s not something we should lose sight of.”
Alberta
Energy projects occupy less than three per cent of Alberta’s oil sands region, report says

From the Canadian Energy Centre
By Will Gibson
‘Much of the habitat across the region is in good condition’
The footprint of energy development continues to occupy less than three per cent of Alberta’s oil sands region, according to a report by the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute (ABMI).
As of 2021, energy projects impacted just 2.6 per cent of the oil sands region, which encompasses about 142,000 square kilometers of boreal forest in northern Alberta, an area nearly the size of Montana.
“There’s a mistaken perception that the oil sands region is one big strip mine and that’s simply not the case,” said David Roberts, director of the institute’s science centre.
“The energy footprint is very small in total area once you zoom out to the boreal forest surrounding this development.”

Between 2000 and 2021, the total human footprint in the oil sands region (including energy, agriculture, forestry and municipal uses) increased from 12.0 to 16.5 per cent.
At the same time, energy footprint increased from 1.4 to 2.6 per cent – all while oil sands production surged from 667,000 to 3.3 million barrels per day, according to the Alberta Energy Regulator.
The ABMI’s report is based on data from 328 monitoring sites across the Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River oil sands regions. Much of the region’s oil and gas development is concentrated in a 4,800-square-kilometre zone north of Fort McMurray.
“In general, the effects of energy footprint on habitat suitability at the regional scale were small…for most species because energy footprint occupies a small total area in the oil sands region,” the report says.
Researchers recorded species that were present and measured a variety of habitat characteristics.

The status and trend of human footprint and habitat were monitored using fine-resolution imagery, light detection and ranging data as well as satellite images.
This data was used to identify relationships between human land use, habitat and population of species.
The report found that as of 2021, about 95 per cent of native aquatic and wetland habitat in the region was undisturbed while about 77 per cent of terrestrial habitat was undisturbed.
Researchers measured the intactness of the region’s 719 plant, insect and animal species at 87 per cent, which the report states “means much of the habitat across the region is in good condition.”
While the overall picture is positive, Roberts said the report highlights the need for ongoing attention to vegetation regeneration on seismic lines along with the management of impacts to species such as Woodland Caribou.

The ABMI has partnered with Indigenous communities in the region to monitor species of cultural importance. This includes a project with the Lakeland Métis Nation on a study tracking moose occupancy around in situ oil sands operations in traditional hunting areas.
“This study combines traditional Métis insights from knowledge holders with western scientific methods for data collection and analysis,” Roberts said.
The institute also works with oil sands companies, a relationship that Roberts sees as having real value.
“When you are trying to look at the impacts of industrial operations and trends in industry, not having those people at the table means you are blind and don’t have all the information,” Roberts says.
The report was commissioned by Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance, the research arm of Pathways Alliance, a consortium of the six largest oil sands producers.
“We tried to look around when we were asked to put together this report to see if there was a template but there was nothing, at least nothing from a jurisdiction with significant oil and gas activity,” Roberts said.
“There’s a remarkable level of analysis because of how much data we were able to gather.”
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