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Bruce Dowbiggin

Mamas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Running Backs (Pt.2)

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We were watching the NFL on U.S. Thanksgiving Day with a posse of passionate Detroit Lions fans. In between their efforts to convince us to return as Lions fans after our nasty divorce with the team a few years ago, they excitedly talked about the team’s dynamic running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Montgomery is Thunder and Gibbs is Lightning as the Lions head toward what might be their first Super Bowl appearance. Ever. As in, not a sniff of a title since they played the NFL championship game in 1957. But we digress. Montgomery, who has 11 TDs, is signed at a comfortable $5.056 M per year on a two-year contract. Gibbs, who has 10 TDs, is on the second year of his rookie deal that averages $4,461,283 a year.

Naturally, the Lions fans want Gibbs signed to a deal so they don’t lose him when he’s a free agent in 2027. But here’s where it gets tricky. In a previous NFL, when RBs were prime attractions, Gibbs would be among the NFL’s top money earners when he’s free to take offers. It doesn’t work that way anymore. The days of Walter Payton and Barry Sanders are over. Even with a slight resurgence in the NFL’s running game in 2024 RBs are still values as penny stocks.

Last July we looked at the reality of two star backs coming off rookie deals. “Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs looked at the reality of being a running back in today’s NFL and caught the 6 AM flight out of Vegas. New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley looked at the reality of being a running back in today’s NFL and signed a one-year deal for $10.1 million. The incentives in the deal will be very challenging for Barkley. He said he had an “epiphany”. Or maybe a chat with his banker. 

Same situation. Different response. As players coming off their rookie-capped contracts both Jacobs and Barkley found a market that valued running backs just above place kickers on the economic totem pole. Prone to injury and undercut by a steady stream of star running backs emerging from the Draft, veteran running backs across the league now found themselves squeezed on short-term deals for what constitutes pocket change for quarterbacks.”

In the offseason Barkley ditched the Giants for a three-year deal with the Eagles that earns him $13 M with a lowly $3.8 M cap hit. The man who could well be the NFL MVP is 13th on the Eagles salary cap, squeezed between Milton Williams and kicker Jake Elliott. He’s hoping this breakthrough season will recoup the money the Giants declined to pay him coming off is rookie deal.

Jacobs, meanwhile, has become the Green Bay Packers MVOP playing for $ 12 M in the first year of a four-season contract. But the two of them are small fry next to QB Patrick Mahomes’ $450 M contract, Joe Burrows’ and Trevor Lawrence’s $275 M deal or Deshaun Watson’s guaranteed $230 M to stink it up in Cleveland. To say nothing of the $140.6 M going to Tampa Bay’s LT Tristan Wirfs or the $140 M deals for WRs Davante Adams of TB and Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson. How come?

It is, of course, all a matter of sports caponomics . (For more on the evolution of salary caps in sports leagues read our book Cap In Hand: How Salary Caps are Killing Pro Sports and Why the Free Market Could Save Them. brucedowbigginbooks.ca)

Scarcity drives value, and the most scarce commodity is not excellent running backs. It’s excellent quarterbacks. Scarcity is why left offensive tackles make more than guards and centres. It’s why cornerbacks make more than middle linebackers. It’s why these positions are drafted in the first round while running backs and others slide to the later rounds. Gibbs’ first-round selection by Detroit was widely seen as too early for the position and, thus, a cap mistake.

As we remarked in Cap In Hand, the NFL knew it was a two-tier league back in 1987 when it busted a strike by the NFL Players Association for free agency. “There had been no new CBA since the 1982 agreement expired in 1987. To drain the NFLPA’s bank account, the NFL had previously created a “Quarterback Club” marketing arm separate from other players. While the league’s top QBs and select others were handsomely compensated with bonuses and percentages of sales, the move denied significant marketing revenues to the rest of the players and the union.”

End of strike. You’d think that with agents advising RBs and the market establishing value running backs would put pride aside. Nah. Running back Le’Veon Bell described the process when he turned down guaranteed wealth in Pittsburgh in 2022. “My franchise tag was $14.5M, and I walked away from it,Bell said on the AP Pro Football Podcast. “It’s a respect thing. You told me you were going to do this for me but you didn’t… I could’ve just ignored it, went inside the locker room and had been playing. 

“But that wouldn’t have made me happy, and I’m sure inside the locker room, everybody would’ve felt it, and, as a team, we wouldn’t have been good. I feel that’s the same with Saquon. He’s trying to be the best he can, but obviously deep down, he’s not happy, because he wanted to be compensated. He still wants his teammates to be good, so he showed up.”

Bell’s own gamble didn’t work out, as he’s drifted from the Jets to the Ravens to the Buccaneers. Now he’s training to be a boxer. From leading man to bit player. He’ll never make up the money he’s lost by choosing to be a glamourous-but-unappreciated RB. But ask yourself, at what other position in what other league would the three best players at a single position be allowed to switch team from 2023-24?.

That’s what happened last winter when top candidates for 2024 OPOY— Barkley, Jacobs and Derrick Henry— all departed their former teams for slightly better paydays on the Eagles, Packers and Ravens. Doesn’t seem to make sense. Till you see 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey injured again Sunday night in Buffalo with a PCL tear. Then you understand why teams are unwilling to take a longterm gamble on the man carrying the rock.

And why we’ll stay fans of the Buffalo Bills and their QB $258 Million QB Josh Allen for the time being.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Trump Goes Fishing, Catches A Prime Minister On The First Cast

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“I started a joke that started the whole world crying”. The BeeGees

Hands up all those who had Canada, Greenland and Panama as a parlay on their cards. No? Not shocked. We are at the start of a new U.S. foreign policy doctrine, and it has many in Canada panicking.

There have been famous doctrines over the years governing U.S. foreign policy. The Monroe Doctrine. The Truman Doctrine. The Reagan Doctrine. Now we have the Trump “You Snooze You Lose” Doctrine. The past and future POTUS  articulated this realpolitik in the weeks following his election. Tariffs on Canada. Border control. No foreign entanglements. It’s become obvious in the past week that his most vulnerable target would be dozing self-congratulatory postmodern Trudeaupia.

Which has now, suddenly, awoken to its jeopardy. Yes, the nation that lowered flags claiming it’s a genocidal culture, removed national symbols, ignored the PM dressing as Sinbad, locked down tighter than a gnat’s ass for Covid and threatened truckers with loss of jobs and income for not taking an experimental vaccine— these people who elected Trudeau three times as PM wonder why Trump has no respect for Canada

During Tuesday’s extensive presser Trump said he liked Canadians but summed up their weakness. “Canada is subsidized (by the U.S.) to the tune of about $200 billion a year, plus other things. And they don’t essentially have a military. They have a very small military. They rely on our military. It’s all fine, but you know they gotta pay for that.” The question is how much of Canada’s sovereignty will be sacrificed in this accounting?

In their alarm the maple leaf brigade forgets that, with the Apprentice star, it’s nothing personal. He loves to make deals. He likes to mock his opponents. And he likes to win. (After he beats you he shakes your hand and invites you to Mar A Lago.) Like a good poker player he looks for weakness to exploit. And in the Canada of Justin Trudeau he saw weakness everywhere. To paraphrase the Donald, the most weak weakness in the history of the world. Trump seasoned his jibes by proposing hockey star Wayne Gretzky to be governor of a 51st state (Gretzky demurred).

None of this is new. The imbalance between Canada and the U.S. has been longstanding. In July of 2018 we wrote “Sometimes An Ingrate Nation: Bitching About A Free Tab On America’s Bill”. We noted, “Canadians miffed with President Trump’s bracing assessment of Canadians as partners have decided that they will boycott America. Perhaps they are forgetting how lucky they are.”

The boycott fizzled, and it was business as usual. Luckily for slack Canadians no one in the Biden United States was willing to pursue the freeloader status of Canada. Too polite? Too preoccupied? Doesn’t matter now. Trump noticed. Much of what followed is bluff, like a poker player. But it hit a nerve.

When the notion of putting 25 percent tariffs on Canada was first broached there was brave talk of retaliation. Led by the dubious dauphin Trudeau humourless suits blustered about striking back. Instead of simply addressing the border issue Trump identified, Canadians vowed instead not to travel south again, to boycott American goods, denying the U.S. the CDN strategic maple sugar reserve.

Bad idea. A re-focussed Trump is now talking more seriously about a 51st state, an open border, a blended economy (an idea promoted by Canada’s Kevin O’Leary in his chats with GOP grandees). Sometimes it’s lighthearted. Tuesday it was not. He wants Canada to take border security seriously. He wants Canadians to pay for it. There is enough truth to Canada’s indentured state that hosers everywhere now realize their vulnerability under Trudeau’s progressive regime.

Because they fear Trump, Canada’s progressive howler monkeys instead beat up on Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, the presumptive PM. They call him a mini Trump and other things they’re too cowardly to hurl at Trump directly. Ottawa’s purchased media whine that PP won’t constantly stick his foot in his mouth like their beloved Elizabeth May, giving them lots of columns and panel topics.

It didn’t fool anyone. The Trudeau time line to hang on as PM till October was destroyed by Trump’s mockery about a 51st state. Trump’s agitation made it obvious that Canada could not trust Trudeau to negotiate with POTUS 45/ 47.  With PMJT absent, premiers like Doug Ford (Ontario) and Danielle Smith (Alberta) went around Surfer Boy to appeal to Americans for mercy.

Trudeau— who’d routinely maligned Trump for a decade— made himself the victim of the play, scuttling off to his governor general for a perogy prorogation. Now we have PMJT offering to resign, but only after playing parliamentary peekaboo into the summer. Leaving Canada in the lurch while Liberals leisurely solve their Trudeau problem.

How seriously should Canada’s fainting goats take Trump’s agenda? After all he’s putting the full-court press on Greenland, Panama and the Gulf of Mexico/ America, too. Canadians should first understand that most of this thrust is for his domestic consumption. Facing the remnants of the lengthy lawfare campaign against him and having just one term to work within he’s cognizant of keeping Americans happy.

Those who recall the president before Mr. Senile will remember that Trump shoots high to settle lower on the expectation scale. He wants Canada’s resources, not freeloaders like Jagmeet Singh. Plus he needs an outlet in the eastern Arctic. And freer markets for America’s producers.

When the Gretzky jokes and Trudeau jabs subside there will be still be the matter of Canada paying more when federal governments have frittered away a legacy on vanity climate projects and healthcare that doesn’t work. If Trump offers Canada a way out of that bind there might be something new under the northern sun.

It won’t come without strings. He’ll say, “You’re broke, but maybe can work something out”. At which point Canadians will best summed be up by another BeeGees tearjerker, “How Can You Mend A Broken Heart?”

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

2024 In Review: The Year Woke Fever Broke

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How shall we describe 2024, the year just past? How about the Year the Fever Broke?

Entering 2024 the Western world was still under the social contagion launched by the election of Barack Obama as president of the U.S. Since 2008, when the African/Hawaiian become the first black president and the Nobel committee gave him the peace prize for his pigmentation, a fever of progressivism came over the institutions of the West. Woke World became your world.

Observes @feelsdesperate: “The big lib project, from Obama on… would partner with NGOs, media, and academia to create a new liberal economic order legitimized by the continuous generation of *Progress* (i.e. institutionally approved identity-narcissism and new liberatory adventures) while civil liberties… were continuously undermined.”

By January of 2024 the fever still raged in the body politic. “Instead of Obama’s virtuous rhetoric from 2008 they’re now in a far darker place. They are joined to the civilizational suicide of White Fragility promoter Robin DiAngelo. Or Ibrahim X. Kenji’s bilious racism. Or Hamas’ death cult. With no escape.”

Appropriately this fever had been spread by a Chinese-produced virus which, for almost three years, subdued the citizenry, suspended civil rights and forced many to die lonely deaths in the ICU. A dubious vaccine, forced on people who didn’t need it, harmed as many as it helped. As we wrote our 2024 look-forward, the spreading contagion carried fashionable labels. DEI, ESG, BLM, LGBTQ and IPCC. It demanded the deconstruction of pronouns, gender, energy, immigration, meritocracy. Science became settled. Men could have babies. Children could decide gender. White people were Nazis. The expert class was omnipotent.

In this cultural hallucination Hollywood figures were thrust into leadership positions (George Clooney, Will Ferrell, the cast of The View). Blue-check Disney was destroying classic films with Woke updates. Jay-Z and Diddy were black cultural icons. The demented Joe Biden was aimed toward a second term as POTUS.  Greta Thunberg was still a media go-to on climate. The Ukrainians were dutifully being slaughtered to protect the natural gas interests of the West.

Elon Musk was an upstart dictator about to bankrupt Twitter. Heroes were to be prosecuted . And Trump was yesterday’s man.

In Canada, virtue— slavishly supporting radical positions aimed at destroying western society— was all. The douche dauphin Justin Trudeau, held an iron grip on the PMO, ergo he controlled the nation’s politics. Quebec was still getting its usual billions in equalization from ROC. The Indigenous were entitled to claim Crown lands for the alleged sins of the past . The most noble position one could aspire to was having your eight-year-old chemically or physically castrated to satisfy the whims of teachers’ unions and mid-level bureaucrats.  .

It was worth your life to speak up against this corrupt ruling class. In Canada you were a racist/ fascist for supporting the Conservatives but praised for loving China. In England they put citizens in jail for Facebook tweets that offended protected groups. Saying you’d vote for Donald Trump again as president was tantamount to expulsion from social media.

Legacy media still ruled these narratives, even though they’d lost half their audience. (In Canada that was more like 75 percent of its audience.)

Then, as 2024 progressed, something remarkable happened. Almost as one, it occurred to the hapless middle class that they were the victims of an enormous practical joke fostered by the Marxist shills of “NGOs, media, and academia”. What caused the shift? Largely fatigue with people you wouldn’t hire to clean your pool. Aggravation with woke marketing. Discovering political insiders were suddenly obscenely rich.

Whatever the reason, the Fever broke. A new consensus saw the unrepentant Trudeau was an empty suit determined to achieve destruction of the Liberal party. And, with the NDP, to take down Canada. The fainting goats of elite Ottawa recognized with a start that their Trudeau lassitude the past decade had left the country wide open to outside forces such as Trump’s tariff threats.

By the end of 2024 it was clear that letting another nation pay for your defence was abdicating your sovereignty. That allowing a porous border and foreign money-laundering was bound to get you discovered. That unlimited social experimentation sapped a culture’s resistance. Trump certainly noticed.

Certain things became clear. Canada could not win a tariff war with Trump. Quebec understood that if swallowed by America their precious culture will be reduced to Louisiana with poutine. That a 50-cent dollar made Canada a third-world economy. No wonder Kevin O’Leary talked of economic merger with the U.S. The other options are going, going and gone.

South of the border the Fever broke harder. Biden was revealed to be non compus mentus, not “sharp as a tack” per the Left media. Someone else— no one knew who— was running the government. They noticed that Trump may be batshit crazy, but that wanting him dead seemed a tad excessive. That re-working every commercial or TV cast to represent 70-80 percent blue-check priorities was obnoxious to both traditional audiences and the groups it sough to promote.

That all the trillions spent so far on climate mediation hadn’t cleaned the air or water but had certainly enriched the political elite. That Ukraine was about natural gas, not Russian imperialism. That RFK, the iconoclast son of a Democratic dynasty, had made common cause with both Trump and Musk

Panicky progressives and their media shills sought to keep the fever alive. Sensing Trump might actually win re-election Obama induced Clooney to front a coup to replace Biden— who’d soiled himself in a June debate— with a fatuous black/ Indian woman who spent high school in Montreal. It worked about as well as you could have predicted.

Which was when “unknown parties” tried to assassinate Trump. Twice. They also produced a progression of fake polls that showed Kamala ahead of Trump when she was nowhere close. In short, they spent all their credibility on losing propositions, and now… heeere’s Donald!

Trump/ Trudeau is a fever all its own. Canadians fed a diet of MSNBC eye-rollers think it’s the end of our culture. Whether it’s better or worse we will find out in the next 12 months. But the reason Trump is here is that your friends who spread the Fever can no longer be trusted. Turning off the porch light doesn’t convince the dangerous opportunists not to ring your door bell.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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