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Bruce Dowbiggin

Mamas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up To Be Running Backs (Pt.2)

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We were watching the NFL on U.S. Thanksgiving Day with a posse of passionate Detroit Lions fans. In between their efforts to convince us to return as Lions fans after our nasty divorce with the team a few years ago, they excitedly talked about the team’s dynamic running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Montgomery is Thunder and Gibbs is Lightning as the Lions head toward what might be their first Super Bowl appearance. Ever. As in, not a sniff of a title since they played the NFL championship game in 1957. But we digress. Montgomery, who has 11 TDs, is signed at a comfortable $5.056 M per year on a two-year contract. Gibbs, who has 10 TDs, is on the second year of his rookie deal that averages $4,461,283 a year.

Naturally, the Lions fans want Gibbs signed to a deal so they don’t lose him when he’s a free agent in 2027. But here’s where it gets tricky. In a previous NFL, when RBs were prime attractions, Gibbs would be among the NFL’s top money earners when he’s free to take offers. It doesn’t work that way anymore. The days of Walter Payton and Barry Sanders are over. Even with a slight resurgence in the NFL’s running game in 2024 RBs are still values as penny stocks.

Last July we looked at the reality of two star backs coming off rookie deals. “Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs looked at the reality of being a running back in today’s NFL and caught the 6 AM flight out of Vegas. New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley looked at the reality of being a running back in today’s NFL and signed a one-year deal for $10.1 million. The incentives in the deal will be very challenging for Barkley. He said he had an “epiphany”. Or maybe a chat with his banker. 

Same situation. Different response. As players coming off their rookie-capped contracts both Jacobs and Barkley found a market that valued running backs just above place kickers on the economic totem pole. Prone to injury and undercut by a steady stream of star running backs emerging from the Draft, veteran running backs across the league now found themselves squeezed on short-term deals for what constitutes pocket change for quarterbacks.”

In the offseason Barkley ditched the Giants for a three-year deal with the Eagles that earns him $13 M with a lowly $3.8 M cap hit. The man who could well be the NFL MVP is 13th on the Eagles salary cap, squeezed between Milton Williams and kicker Jake Elliott. He’s hoping this breakthrough season will recoup the money the Giants declined to pay him coming off is rookie deal.

Jacobs, meanwhile, has become the Green Bay Packers MVOP playing for $ 12 M in the first year of a four-season contract. But the two of them are small fry next to QB Patrick Mahomes’ $450 M contract, Joe Burrows’ and Trevor Lawrence’s $275 M deal or Deshaun Watson’s guaranteed $230 M to stink it up in Cleveland. To say nothing of the $140.6 M going to Tampa Bay’s LT Tristan Wirfs or the $140 M deals for WRs Davante Adams of TB and Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson. How come?

It is, of course, all a matter of sports caponomics . (For more on the evolution of salary caps in sports leagues read our book Cap In Hand: How Salary Caps are Killing Pro Sports and Why the Free Market Could Save Them. brucedowbigginbooks.ca)

Scarcity drives value, and the most scarce commodity is not excellent running backs. It’s excellent quarterbacks. Scarcity is why left offensive tackles make more than guards and centres. It’s why cornerbacks make more than middle linebackers. It’s why these positions are drafted in the first round while running backs and others slide to the later rounds. Gibbs’ first-round selection by Detroit was widely seen as too early for the position and, thus, a cap mistake.

As we remarked in Cap In Hand, the NFL knew it was a two-tier league back in 1987 when it busted a strike by the NFL Players Association for free agency. “There had been no new CBA since the 1982 agreement expired in 1987. To drain the NFLPA’s bank account, the NFL had previously created a “Quarterback Club” marketing arm separate from other players. While the league’s top QBs and select others were handsomely compensated with bonuses and percentages of sales, the move denied significant marketing revenues to the rest of the players and the union.”

End of strike. You’d think that with agents advising RBs and the market establishing value running backs would put pride aside. Nah. Running back Le’Veon Bell described the process when he turned down guaranteed wealth in Pittsburgh in 2022. “My franchise tag was $14.5M, and I walked away from it,Bell said on the AP Pro Football Podcast. “It’s a respect thing. You told me you were going to do this for me but you didn’t… I could’ve just ignored it, went inside the locker room and had been playing. 

“But that wouldn’t have made me happy, and I’m sure inside the locker room, everybody would’ve felt it, and, as a team, we wouldn’t have been good. I feel that’s the same with Saquon. He’s trying to be the best he can, but obviously deep down, he’s not happy, because he wanted to be compensated. He still wants his teammates to be good, so he showed up.”

Bell’s own gamble didn’t work out, as he’s drifted from the Jets to the Ravens to the Buccaneers. Now he’s training to be a boxer. From leading man to bit player. He’ll never make up the money he’s lost by choosing to be a glamourous-but-unappreciated RB. But ask yourself, at what other position in what other league would the three best players at a single position be allowed to switch team from 2023-24?.

That’s what happened last winter when top candidates for 2024 OPOY— Barkley, Jacobs and Derrick Henry— all departed their former teams for slightly better paydays on the Eagles, Packers and Ravens. Doesn’t seem to make sense. Till you see 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey injured again Sunday night in Buffalo with a PCL tear. Then you understand why teams are unwilling to take a longterm gamble on the man carrying the rock.

And why we’ll stay fans of the Buffalo Bills and their QB $258 Million QB Josh Allen for the time being.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

Is Roundball A Square Game? Sports Betting Takes Another Hit

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The most-heard response to last week’s FBI arrests of NBA stars in a gambling sting was “Why do athletes earning millions need to win thousands betting spots?” Coming on the heels of the apparent Shohei Ohtani coverup— his translator took the fall—it also begs the question just how legitimate are the games on which the public bets? Especially with pro sports now partnering with legalized gambling outfits.

There have long been stories of the high-stakes poker and golf games played by Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley and other mega sports celebrities. There was the shocking scandal of former NBA referee Tim Donaghy fixing games for gamblers. Hockey fans remember the tawdry 2006 episode of Wayne Gretzky letting his wife take the fall for betting debts with former NHL star Rick Tocchet.

Now this. NBA Hall of Fame member Chuancy Billups, the suspended coach of the Portland Traiblazers, and Terry Rozier of Miami Heat were the eye candy in the arrest, but the problems go much deeper. If you listen to people like former mob guy Mike Franzese, who now is a security consultant, the reality is not The Sopranos method of busting limbs and shooting deadbeats. It’s more subtle.

According to Franzese the biggest fear for those caught in the web of underworld gambling is exposure of their mistakes. They will do anything to avoid these problems becoming known to their families, their friends and, most of all, their employers. They think the best way to avoid exposure is to play along with mobsters, become a small pawn in crooked betting and poker rings. As if.

So how do they get caught up in there first place? As Franzese explains, “The competition they have on the field spills over into the dressing room, where athletes on the same team often compete with each other in what they think is innocent betting on other sports.” In short they feel like big shots in Guys and Dolls tossing around dice. No one will ever get caught. Pretty soon, these naïve young men are racking up debts in the tens and even hundreds of thousands.

Because they can’t go the bank to finance their debts they end up looking for money on the streets from bookmakers connected to the mob. (It’s why the underworld knew long before the news went public about the bets coming via Ohtani’s translator) And that’s where they get hooked.

The people holding their debt are happy to let their marks get even deeper in debt, so as to have a better grip on them. While the mob guys threaten violence, what they want most is a conduit to the action. So, in the case of Rozier or former Raptor Jontay Porter, they’re asked to shave points on the proposition bets offered on their production. In the case of Billups, they’re asked to front corrupt poker games with whales (big bettors) lured by the promise of celebrities at the table.

Whatever the hook, they hope they can quickly escape the trap, but soon they discover they’re captives till they are of no use in fixing results of drawing big card players. Because they’re often panicked or broke from a divorce or bad investment they try to make the money back quickly. For the reason that even a 60 percent winning percentage is considered high, repeat winners in the 80-90 percent range tip off authorities. Betting pros know not to be conspicuous but to accept a medium return over a long term. But Billups fleecing guys for big stakes in poker is not inconspicuous.

Most often they face the option of going bankrupt or turning evidence to the Feds to escape. Neither is an acceptable fate for someone who, until their habit tripped them up, was considered heroes and role models.

So how straight are the games that people trust for honesty? Especially now that legalized gambling has expanded the pool of bettors incrementally. With everyone looking for an edge or a secret source it’s a temptation trap. The pro sports leagues have security departments always win the lookout for suspicious behaviour, but they are loathe to expose those athletes who have gotten into the trap.

The leagues are also their own worst advocates. Even though Tocchet admitted to the 2006 gambling allegations the NHL has seen fit to let him coach in modern-day NHL. Gretzky turned in his innocence card when MGM needed a front man for its sports betting operation.

Current Tigers manager A.J. Hinch was the manager of the wining Houston Astros when they cheated in the 2022 World Series. And Ohtani continues to star with the Dodgers, despite leaving his gambling-addicted translator in the dressing room of the California/ L.A. Angels for almost five years to soak up the kind of info the mob craves.

Likewise the casinos and betting sites want no exposure from reckless gamblers. Combined with the addictive appeal of betting to the players and fans, the problems are not likely to diminish. As a famous robber once said when asked why he robbed banks, “Because that’s where the money is.”

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

While America Shrugs Off Woke, Canada Doubles Down On Feminizing Society

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There is a truism that politicians believe that strategy wins battles. Generals know that logistics win battles. Translation: You can have all the shiny new weapons but if you don’t have a delivery system to support them you’re going to lose.

The success of the Woke Left this past generation has been its creation of delivery systems in the media and culture to carry out their agenda. The result: a feminization of Western culture, exemplified by the manic hatred of 1980s alpha man Donald Trump.  From their modest demand for “safe spaces” they now have rendered all criticism of social dysphoria as hate speech and the speakers criminal. Murder in the service of trans— suggested by Jane Fonda— is considered holy.

Writes conservative political analyst Helen Andrews.. “Everything you think of as wokeness involves prioritizing the feminine over the masculine: empathy over rationality, safety over risk, cohesion over competition… The most important sex difference in group dynamics is attitude to conflict. In short, men wage conflict openly while women covertly undermine or ostracize their enemies.” Translation: If it feels good it must be correct.

As we noted in June emotional narratives now override facts in public discourse.  The currency in this societal change has been victimization as the badge of virtue. Young women, in particular, are willing to believe even the most outlandish claims of victimization in exchange for credibility in the Woke camp. One example from the past week’s No Kings performative marches example: Women are being ignored in media or being discriminated against in hiring or academia. As if.

No Kings had all the hallmarks of the victim strategy. A predominately female, plus-60 audience and their handlers from the education system, all united in loathing Donald Trump. The shared distress brought on by POTUS 47. A Hollywood component led by Kathy Griffin.

So, after all the bonding and talking, what message did they take away from the large crowds and media love? Was it empathy or rationality? As Andrews writes, “The outcome of a discussion is less important than the fact that a discussion was held and everyone participated in it.” Besides a few pathetic folk songs, badly written signs, cheeky assassination memes they mostly took away a feeling of unity. It was, like Stalin’s Soviet Union army parades, a display of the delivery systems they’ll use to enforce loyalty in the future.

For organizers who know they’re not going to get rid of POTUS 45/ 47 anytime soon, there was the added confidence that this base will fall obediently in line when the nomenklatura call them to do their bidding— the same way they did on lockdowns, vaccines and pussy hats.

The problem for the Left’s leaders after all the Charlie Kirk references and Pete Seeger nostalgia is that the delivery system is still struggling to find a new wedge weapon to slow down Trump. (He’s still polling in the high 40s approval with pollsters who correctly called 2024.) All the Congressional shutdowns, Epstein references and Putin references that worked before are now failing.

“CNN: This shutdown is a different world for Trump than the 2018-19 shutdown. He’s in a much better spot. Here is his Shutdown Trump Net Approval

Blame Trump for Shutdown:

2019: yes 61%

2025: no 48%

Worse, support for critical issues such as trans is falling. Canadian political scientist Andrew Kaufman shocked progressives with polling showing that trans identification is in free-fall among the young the past five years. So is nonbinary identity. (Pretty soon only their demented parents will buy the grift.)

As well, Congressional district adjustments could give the GOP as many as 20 new seats in the midterm. Hence the broad hints at violent civil unrest from the more excited paraders this weekend. And the disingenuous claims of how peaceful the Left was on the weekend. In short it was No Kings. No New Ideas.

While America roils in the dynamics of a Woke retreat, Kaufman points out that Canada remains entirely in the thrall of the feminized morality introduced by Justin Trudeau’s election ten years ago this month in 2015. “Liberals: Stop importing US politics into Canada. Also Liberals: Hey look, the U.S is holding a ‘No Kings’ protest. Let do it too.”

The image of the hip, sexually ambiguous Trudeau has been followed by the feminized Mark Carney with his trans child. The symbolism is no accident. The Canadian Left’s rock/ paper/ scissors emotion now trumps irrationality. Canadians questioning dysphoria or promoting traditional male roles is now punishable by firing or banishment from social media. Emotional blackmail is a delivery system for Canada’s left. But it only goes one way. If you act like a traditionsl man publicly (see: Danielle Smith) your female cloak of supremacy loses its superpowers.

While the U.S. Left struggles the political delivery system Canada is, by contrast, armed to the teeth with live feminist ammo aimed at Pierre Poilievre. Somehow the meek bureaucrat from Ottawa is painted as mini-Trump by the heavy hitters of the Left.  The past week saw the titans of the keyboards twist anti PP comments from a former Stephen Harper aide into an attack from the former PM. It took hours before Harper’s office quashed the implications of Polievre hate, too late to expunge the scars.

Elbows Up aficiandos took their shots, too: “Here’s a sample: @PierrePoilievre has desecrated the memory of my father and insulted every officer who has served in the RCMP. This cannot be forgiven or forgotten.” This after Poilievre asked why it was not an issue that a fired Minister of Justice, Jody Wilson Raybould, was not allowed to ask why Skippy didn’t want the RCMP to do their job. This was 14 times she was told to stand down on issues over Trudeau’s donors.

To forestall any rejection of Woke, Carney’s strategy is to turn Canada in the direction of ultra-liberal Europe and away from Trumpland. But the logistics of a crumbling economy and separation on several fronts in Canada may take the decision out of his hands.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, his new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org . His 2004 book Money Players was voted sixth best on the same list, and is available via brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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