Alberta
Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.
The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.
Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.
Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.
Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.
Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.
The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.
Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.
Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.
And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.
Agriculture
Lacombe meat processor scores $1.2 million dollar provincial tax credit to help expansion
Alberta’s government continues to attract investment and grow the provincial economy.
The province’s inviting and tax-friendly business environment, and abundant agricultural resources, make it one of North America’s best places to do business. In addition, the Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit helps attract investment that will further diversify Alberta’s agriculture industry.
Beretta Farms is the most recent company to qualify for the tax credit by expanding its existing facility with the potential to significantly increase production capacity. It invested more than $10.9 million in the project that is expected to increase the plant’s processing capacity from 29,583 to 44,688 head of cattle per year. Eleven new employees were hired after the expansion and the company plans to hire ten more. Through the Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit, Alberta’s government has issued Beretta Farms a tax credit of $1,228,735.
“The Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit is building on Alberta’s existing competitive advantages for agri-food companies and the primary producers that supply them. This facility expansion will allow Beretta Farms to increase production capacity, which means more Alberta beef across the country, and around the world.”
“This expansion by Beretta Farms is great news for Lacombe and central Alberta. It not only supports local job creation and economic growth but also strengthens Alberta’s global reputation for producing high-quality meat products. I’m proud to see our government supporting agricultural innovation and investment right here in our community.”
The tax credit provides a 12 per cent non-refundable, non-transferable tax credit when businesses invest $10 million or more in a project to build or expand a value-added agri-processing facility in Alberta. The program is open to any food manufacturers and bio processors that add value to commodities like grains or meat or turn agricultural byproducts into new consumer or industrial goods.
Beretta Farms’ facility in Lacombe is a federally registered, European Union-approved harvesting and meat processing facility specializing in the slaughter, processing, packaging and distribution of Canadian and United States cattle and bison meat products to 87 countries worldwide.
“Our recent plant expansion project at our facility in Lacombe has allowed us to increase our processing capacities and add more job opportunities in the central Alberta area. With the support and recognition from the Government of Alberta’s tax credit program, we feel we are in a better position to continue our success and have the confidence to grow our meat brands into the future.”
Alberta’s agri-processing sector is the second-largest manufacturing industry in the province and meat processing plays an important role in the sector, generating millions in annual economic impact and creating thousands of jobs. Alberta continues to be an attractive place for agricultural investment due to its agricultural resources, one of the lowest tax rates in North America, a business-friendly environment and a robust transportation network to connect with international markets.
Quick facts
- Since 2023, there are 16 applicants to the Agri-Processing Investment Tax Credit for projects worth about $1.6 billion total in new investment in Alberta’s agri-processing sector.
- To date, 13 projects have received conditional approval under the program.
- Each applicant must submit progress reports, then apply for a tax credit certificate when the project is complete.
- Beretta Farms has expanded the Lacombe facility by 10,000 square feet to include new warehousing, cooler space and an office building.
- This project has the potential to increase production capacity by 50 per cent, thereby facilitating entry into more European markets.
Related information
From Premier Danielle Smith and Alberta.ca/Next
Let’s talk about an Alberta Pension Plan for a minute.
With our young Alberta workforce paying billions more into the CPP each year than our seniors get back in benefits, it’s time to ask whether we stay with the status quo or create our own Alberta Pension Plan that would guarantee as good or better benefits for seniors and lower premiums for workers.
I want to hear your perspective on this idea and please check out the video. Get the facts. Join the conversation.
Visit Alberta.ca/next
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