Federal government’s emission-reduction plan will cost Canadian workers $6,700 annually by 2030—while failing to meet government’s emission-reduction target

The federal government’s plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will impose significant costs on Canadians—while also failing to meet the government’s own emission-reduction target, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“The government’s plan will significantly hurt Canada’s economy and cost workers money and jobs,” said Ross McKitrick, professor of economics at the University of Guelph, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of The Economic Impact and GHG Effects of the Federal Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan through 2030.

The government wants to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. To meet this target, the government has enacted a series of policies including the federal carbon tax, clean fuel standards and various other GHG-related regulations such as energy efficiency requirements for buildings,
fertilizer restrictions on farms, and electric vehicle mandates.

The study finds that these combined policies will only reduce GHG emissions by an estimated 57 per cent of the government’s 2030 emission-reduction target.

And crucially, by 2030 these policies will:

• reduce Canada’s GDP by 6.2 per cent
• cost $6,700 per worker annually
• reduce employment in Canada by 164,000 jobs

“This poorly-designed plan, which will worsen the current downward trends in productivity and income, will reduce emissions but at a cost many times higher than the government’s estimated benefits,” McKitrick said.

The federal government has set a GHG emissions reduction target of at least 40% below 2005 levels by 2030, equivalent to 38.5% below 2022 levels.
This report examines proposed policies aimed at achieving these goals and evaluates their potential impact, aiming to address the gap left by the federal government’s lack of efforts in this matter.
The paper uses a peer-reviewed macroeconomic model to assess the federal government’s Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), including carbon pricing, Clean Fuel Regulations, and other regulatory measures such as EV mandates.
It is estimated that the ERP will reduce Canada’s GHG emissions by about 26.5% between 2019 and 2030, reaching approximately 57% of the government’s 2030 target, leaving a substantial gap.
The implementation of the ERP is expected to significantly dampen economic growth, with a projected 6.2% reduction in Canada’s economy (i.e., real GDP) compared to the base case by 2030.
Income per worker, adjusted for inflation, is forecasted to stagnate during the 2020s and decrease by 1.5% by 2030 compared to 2022 levels.
The ERP costs $6,700 per worker annually by 2030, which is more than five times the cost per worker compared to the carbon tax alone.
Overall, while the federal ERP will contribute to reducing GHG emissions, it falls short of meeting the 2026 or 2030 targets and imposes significant economic burdens on Canadian households. Additionally, due to the high marginal cost of many regulatory measures, the ERP plan is costlier than it needs to be for what it will accomplish.

Read the Full Report

Author:

Ross McKitrick

Professor of Economics, University of Guelph

Related Topics:#CarbonTax #FraserInstitute #RossMcKitrick FederalEmissionReductionPlan

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As PM Poilievre would cancel summer holidays for MP’s so Ottawa can finally get back to work

Automotive / 13 hours ago

Canadians’ Interest in Buying an EV Falls for Third Year in a Row

2025 Federal Election / 14 hours ago

Poilievre Campaigning To Build A Canadian Economic Fortress

2025 Federal Election

As PM Poilievre would cancel summer holidays for MP’s so Ottawa can finally get back to work

Published on April 25, 2025

Todayville

From Conservative Party Communications

In the first 100 days, a new Conservative government will pass 3 laws:

1. Affordability For a Change Act—cutting spending, income tax, sales tax off homes

2. Safety For a Change Act to lock up criminals

3. Bring Home Jobs Act—that repeals C-69, sets up 6 month permit turnarounds for new projects

No summer holiday til they pass!

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced today that as Prime Minister he will cancel the summer holiday for Ottawa politicians and introduce three pieces of legislation to make life affordable, stop crime, and unleash our economy to bring back powerful paycheques. Because change can’t wait.

A new Conservative government will kickstart the plan to undo the damage of the Lost Liberal Decade and restore the promise of Canada with a comprehensive legislative agenda to reverse the worst Trudeau laws and cut the cost of living, crack down on crime, and unleash the Canadian economy with ‘100 Days of Change.’ Parliament will not rise until all three bills are law and Canadians get the change they voted for.

“After three Liberal terms, Canadians want change now,” said Poilievre. “My plan for ‘100 Days of Change’ will deliver that change. A new Conservative government will immediately get to work, and we will not stop until we have delivered lower costs, safer streets, and bigger paycheques.”

The ’100 Days of Change’ will include three pieces of legislation:

The Affordability–For a Change Act

Will lower food prices, build more homes, and bring back affordability for Canadians by:

Cutting income taxes by 15%. The average worker will keep an extra $900 each year, while dual-income families will keep $1,800 more annually.
Axing the federal sales tax on new homes up to $1.3 million. Combined with a plan to incentivize cities to lower development charges, this will save homebuyers $100,000 on new homes.
Axing the federal sales tax on new Canadian cars to protect auto workers’ jobs and save Canadians money, and challenge provinces to do the same.
Axing the carbon tax in full. Repeal the entire carbon tax law, including the federal industrial carbon tax backstop, to restore our industrial base and take back control of our economy from the Americans.
Scrapping Liberal fuel regulations and electricity taxes to lower the cost of heating, gas, and fuel.
Letting working seniors earn up to $34,000 tax-free.
Axing the escalator tax on alcohol and reset the excise duty rates to those in effect before the escalator was passed.
Scrapping the plastics ban and ending the planned food packaging tax on fresh produce that will drive up grocery costs by up to 30%.

We will also:

Identify 15% of federal buildings and lands to sell for housing in Canadian cities.

The Safe Streets–For a Change Act

Will end the Liberal violent crime wave by:

Repealing all the Liberal laws that caused the violent crime wave, including catch-and-release Bill C-75, which lets rampant criminals go free within hours of their arrest.
Introducing a “three strikes, you’re out” rule. After three serious offences, offenders will face mandatory minimum 10-year prison sentences with no bail, parole, house arrest, or probation.
Imposing life sentences for fentanyl trafficking, illegal gun trafficking, and human trafficking. For too long, radical Liberals have let crime spiral out of control—Canada will no longer be a haven for criminals.
Stopping auto theft, extortion, fraud, and arson with new minimum penalties, no house arrest, and a new more serious offence for organized theft.
Give police the power to end tent cities.
Bringing in tougher penalties and a new law to crack down on Intimate Partner Violence.
Restoring consecutive sentences for multiple murderers, so the worst mass murderers are never let back on our streets.

The Bring Home Jobs–For a Change Act

This Act will be rocket fuel for our economy. We will unleash Canada’s vast resource wealth, bring back investment, and create powerful paycheques for workers so we can stand on our own feet and stand up to Trump from a position of strength, by:

Repealing the Liberal ‘No Development Law’, C-69 and Bill C-48, lifting the cap on Canadian energy to get major projects built, unlock our resources, and start selling Canadian energy to the world again.
Bringing in the Canada First Reinvestment Tax Cut to reward Canadians who reinvest their earnings back into our country, unlocking billions for home building, manufacturing, and tools, training and technology to boost productivity for Canadian workers.
Creating a One-Stop-Shop to safely and rapidly approve resource projects, with one simple application and one environmental review within one year.

Poilievre will also:

Call President Trump to end the damaging and unjustified tariffs and accelerate negotiations to replace CUSMA with a new deal on trade and security. We need certainty—not chaos, but Conservatives will never compromise on our sovereignty and security.
Get Phase 2 of LNG Canada built to double the project’s natural gas production.
Accelerate at least nine other projects currently snarled in Liberal red tape to get workers working and Canada building again.

“After the Lost Liberal Decade of rising costs and crime and a falling economy under America’s thumb, we cannot afford a fourth Liberal term,” said Poilievre. “We need real change, and that is what Conservatives will bring in the first 100 days of a new government. A new Conservative government will get to work on Day 1 and we won’t stop until we have delivered the change we promised, the change Canadians deserve, the change Canadians voted for.”

Automotive

Canadians’ Interest in Buying an EV Falls for Third Year in a Row

Published on April 25, 2025

Todayville

From Energy Now

Electric vehicle prices fell 7.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2024 year-over-year, according to the AutoTader price index

Fewer Canadians are considering buying an electric vehicle, marking the third year in a row interest has dropped despite lower EV prices, a survey from AutoTrader shows.

Forty-two per cent of survey respondents say they’re considering an EV as their next vehicle, down from 46 per cent last year. In 2022, 68 per cent said they would consider buying an EV.

Meanwhile, 29 per cent of respondents say they would exclusively consider buying an EV — a significant drop from 40 per cent last year.

The report, which surveyed 1,801 people on the AutoTrader website, shows drivers are concerned about reduced government incentives, a lack of infrastructure and long-term costs despite falling prices.

Electric vehicle prices fell 7.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2024 year-over-year, according to the AutoTader price index.

The survey, conducted between Feb. 13 and March 12, shows 68 per cent of non-EV owners say government incentives could influence their decision, while a little over half say incentives increase their confidence in buying an EV.