Economy
Energy transition will be much longer and more arduous than they’re telling you

From the Fraser Institute
While many Canadian politicians and activists continue to trumpet the “energy transition” and conjure visions of a low-carbon future that supposedly lurks just around the corner, along comes Natural Resources Canada with its latest Energy Fact Book. A careful review of the publication pours cold water on any notion of a rapid shift to a fundamentally different energy system, one that features a much smaller role for the fossil fuels that now supply the vast majority of the energy used by Canadians.
The book contains a wealth of information on Canada’s large and notably diverse energy sector, covering production, consumption trends, investment, and the environmental impact of energy production and use. Separately, Natural Resources Canada also publishes “energy profiles” for the individual provinces and territories that provide further insight into energy production and consumption patterns across the country.
Starting with energy production (and considering all sources of energy, including uranium), crude oil accounts for about 45 per cent of Canadian energy output, measured in petajoules. Natural gas and natural gas liquids comprise another 32 per cent, with uranium chipping in 11 per cent of primary energy production. Smaller shares come from coal (5 per cent), hydroelectricity (5 per cent) and “other” renewables (3 per cent).
The statistics on energy output confirm that fossil fuels dominate the mix of energy sources produced in Canada. There’s little reason to believe this will change in a significant way in the near term.
Turning to energy consumption, a review of the most recent information leads to a broadly similar conclusion.
Based on Statistics Canada’s latest data, industry, collectively, is responsible for about 35 per cent of final end-use energy demand; this category includes manufacturing, natural resource extraction and processing, and construction. Transportation is the second-largest consumer of energy (29 per cent of final demand), followed by the residential (16 per cent) and commercial sectors (14 per cent).
What about the various sources of energy Canadians depend on for their comfort and well-being and to enable industrial and other business activity? Refined petroleum products rank first, providing about two-fifths of all energy consumed. Natural gas is second (35-36 per cent). Electricity comprises just 16-17 per cent of the energy used in Canada. Overall, fossil fuels still meet more than three quarters of Canadians’ requirements for primary energy.
Some may be surprised that electricity constitutes less than one-fifth of the energy used in Canada. A principal strategy of governments aspiring to slash greenhouse gas emissions is to redirect energy demand to electricity and away from oil, natural gas and other carbon-based energy sources. That makes sense, particularly since Canada’s existing electricity grid is about 80 per cent carbon-free. But a “big switch” to electricity won’t be easy. Consider that, over the first two decades of the millennium, Canadian natural gas consumption jumped by 34 per cent while electricity demand rose by 12 per cent. This underscores the resiliency of household and business demand for reliable affordable energy—of which natural gas is the best example.
Raising electricity’s share of total energy consumption will necessitate an enormous expansion across all segments of the Canadian electricity sector, encompassing not only the development of far more generation capacity but also the construction of additional transmission networks to deliver electric energy to end-users. Industry experts talk of boosting the amount of electricity produced in Canada by up to three times within two decades—a herculean task, assuming it’s even possible.
And, in line with the “net zero” goals espoused by many governments, virtually all of new electricity presumably must come from carbon-free sources (e.g., hydropower, other renewables, biomass, nuclear). There’s also the challenge of replacing the remaining carbon-based electricity still produced in Canada with carbon-free alternatives, as mandated by the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) recently adopted by the Trudeau government.
Suffice to say the transition away from fossil fuels as the predominant source of energy consumed in Canada will be a lengthy and arduous journey and is sure to encounter more and bigger obstacles than most of Canada’s political class understands or cares to acknowledge.
Author
Business
From ‘Elbows Up’ To ‘Thumbs Up’

From the National Citizens Coalition
National Citizens Coalition Slams Carney-Trump Meeting as ‘Insulting’ About-Face After Fear-Mongering Campaign Rhetoric
CANADA – From “elbows up” to thumbs up in record time.
The National Citizens Coalition (NCC) condemns Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cozy meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, calling it a stark contradiction of the anti-American rhetoric that fueled Carney’s election campaign. The NCC asserts that Carney’s deferential White House visit undermines the combative pledges made to Canadians, revealing how the Liberals leveraged Trump’s tacit endorsement and the ‘Rally Around the Flag effect’ to secure their minority government.
During the April 2025 federal election, Carney and the Liberal Party campaigned on a platform of staunch resistance to Trump’s trade war and his provocative “51st state” rhetoric, inflaming tensions by warning that Trump sought to “break us so America can own us.” This messaging galvanized voters on the left, particularly the collapsing NDP base and many over-55s, with polls showing a surge in Liberal support driven entirely by anti-Trump sentiment. Yet, just days after securing victory, Carney’s decision to behave in stark contrast to such rhetoric betrays the trust of Canadians who believed in his hardline stance, and in particular, betrays the young Canadians who voted in defiance of “51st state” nonsense and American election interference, but who also had major additional priorities that have been ignored by a decade of Liberal ruin.
“Mark Carney sold Canadians a story of aggressive defiance against Trump, but this meeting proves he’s more interested in reaping the rewards than holding convictions,” says NCC President Peter Coleman. “Carney’s campaign leaned heavily on fearmongering about Trump, yet here he is shaking hands, laughing, and all but sitting idly by as he’s insulted, with the very man he claimed threatened our sovereignty. This isn’t leadership—it’s hypocrisy.”
The NCC contends that Trump’s public comments, including his refusal to rule out making Canada the 51st state, however flippant the bargaining tactic, were strategically exploited by the Liberals to consolidate left-leaning voters fearful of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s perceived Trump-like style.
“Trump’s shadow loomed large over this election, and the Liberals milked it for every vote,” Coleman adds. “Canadians deserve to know if Carney’s tough talk was just a ploy to ride anti-Trump sentiment to power, only to cozy up to him afterward. This smells like a backroom deal between the two, that benefited the Liberals at the expense of much-needed hope and change, and honest and ethical conversations about the need for renewed pride in who we are, and a return to Canadian sovereignty.”
The NCC demands Carney explain how this meeting aligns with his fear-mongering on the campaign trail. Canadians deserve transparency about more of Carney’s true motives, which also may not match his statements and behaviours to date.
The National Citizens Coalition calls on all Canadians to hold Carney accountable for this cynical about-face. “We will not stand idly by while Carney exploits sovereignty concerns and election interference for political points,” Coleman concludes. “If this level of decorum had been any kind of consistent, if he hadn’t just run a fearful, pandemic-style campaign that robbed so many Canadians of hope and further inflamed alienation in the West, that’s one thing. But it’s time to reclaim the Canadian Dream from low-cunning leaders who say one thing and do another. He may be better house-broken than Trudeau, and on that, there is room for faint praise. But who really is Mark Carney? Why did the legacy media seem so disinterested in vetting him? And what does he really believe?”
About the National Citizens Coalition: Founded in 1967, the National Citizens Coalition is Canada’s pioneer non-profit conservative organization, dedicated to championing common-sense values, defending taxpayer interests, and promoting a strong, proud, and free Canada.
Business
Carney must work to grow Canada’s economic pie

From the Fraser Institute
After scoring a narrow victory in the federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney and his incoming cabinet will confront a host of pressing issues. Dealing with the erratic and sometimes menacing Donald Trump—and navigating the multi-front tariff war the U.S. president has launched—is undoubtedly job one. Meanwhile, the refreshed Liberal government will face an enfeebled Canadian economy that may be on the cusp of a recession triggered by Trump’s mad-cap trade policies and dwindling economic growth across much of the world. Finding ways to implement—and pay for—the grab-bag of costly promises in the Liberal Party’s election platform will also tax the abilities of Carney and his ministers.
Beyond the immediate imperative of managing relations with the United States, the top priority for the Carney team must be creating the conditions for stronger economic growth at home. Under Justin Trudeau, the Liberal government was preoccupied with social policy, income redistribution, climate change and Indigenous reconciliation. As former finance minister Bill Morneau has written, Trudeau displayed zero interest in bolstering the underlying foundations of Canadian prosperity, which languished on his watch. Hopefully, Carney’s administration won’t make the same mistake.
Unfortunately, team Carney starts with a weak economic hand. Canada has been losing global market share in almost all of our export-oriented industries. Productivity is stagnant, and business investment is insufficient even to offset ongoing deprecation of the “capital stock”—the buildings, equipment and machinery owned and used by firms across Canada. Net foreign direct investment flows have turned sharply negative, with Canadian firms investing more abroad than foreign companies invest in Canada—a clear sign of our waning competitiveness.
Even more worryingly, Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) per person—the total income that households and businesses generate, divided by the population—shrank by 1 per cent between 2018 and 2023, before dipping again last year. During this time period, we’ve been near the bottom among 38 advanced countries on this basic metric of economic success and living standards.
In fact, Canada’s economy today is scarcely larger than it was a decade ago (after adjusting for population growth and inflation). Comparisons with the U.S. make for particularly painful reading. Between the first quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of last year, inflation-adjusted per-person economic output grew by just 2.5 per cent in Canada compared to 18.7 per cent in the U.S. This speaks both to the economic failures of the Trudeau era and the urgent need for Ottawa to change course.
So, what to do?
Turning around Canada’s lacklustre economy will require a sharp turn away from the policies of the Trudeau era. Instead of serially expanding the size, cost and administrative reach of the government sector, federal policymakers should look to kick-start business investment, improve Canada’s global competitive position, accelerate business innovation, and scale back the regulatory chokehold that has been stifling business growth in key sectors of our economy including natural resources, manufacturing and infrastructure development. Progress in these areas will require a significant overhaul of Canada’s creaky growth-inhibiting tax system, a commitment to smarter and more efficient regulation across the government sector, and more disciplined and thoughtful management of Ottawa’s $550 billion in annual spending.
Is the Carney government up to the task? Its first budget, likely to be tabled within the next few weeks, should provide some initial clues.
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