Fraser Institute
Carney government should scrap gun ‘buyback’ program and save taxpayer money
From the Fraser Institute
By Gary Mauser
More than 90 per cent of guns used in crimes are illegally imported into Ontario from the United States, which means the confiscation (or “buyback”) program would not affect these guns. And the program diverts financial and policing resources towards law-abiding Canadians who own firearms
Given the mountain of federal debt, the Carney government’s much-anticipated fall budget should tell us how Ottawa plans to deal with the prime minister’s new priorities. Carney has urged cabinet to find existing programs to cut so Ottawa can afford the new spending he’s promised, such as meeting the NATO 5 per cent commitment and opening up new energy corridors.
Clearly, if the government wants to cut waste, it should axe the Trudeau-era gun ban and confiscation program, which—according to reports—the government plans to fully rollout this fall.
First, some background. In 2020, with the stroke of a pen, the Trudeau government instantly made it a crime for federally-licenced firearms owners to buy, sell, transport, import, export or use hundreds of thousands of formerly legal rifles and shotguns. According to the government, the ban targets “assault-style weapons,” which are actually classic semi-automatic rifles and shotguns used by hunters and sport shooters for more than 100 years. When announcing the ban, the prime minister said the government would confiscate the banned firearms and provide “fair compensation” to owners. That hasn’t happened.
In fact, the government has revealed no plans about how it will collect the banned firearms nor has it included compensation costs in any federal budget. The amnesty period (to allow compliance with the ban), which the government has extended in the past, is set to expire on Oct. 30, 2025.
The program faces stiff opposition from several key players.
For example, the provincial governments in Ontario and Saskatchewan don’t want to participate. As noted by Ontario’s solicitor general, more than 90 per cent of guns used in crimes are illegally imported into Ontario from the United States, which means the confiscation (or “buyback”) program would not affect these guns. And the program diverts financial and policing resources towards law-abiding Canadians who own firearms and are already heavily regulated and screened.
The National Police Federation, which represents 20,000 RCMP members, has said the program is a “misdirected effort when it comes to public safety.”
Canada Post, which has been tasked by Ottawa to receive and warehouse firearms, wants nothing to do with the program due to fear of conflicts between staff and gun owners, and the ability of Canada Post to safely store potentially hundreds of firearms in postal substations.
And the Canadian Sporting Arms and Ammunition Association, which represents firearms retailers, said it will have “zero involvement” in helping confiscate these firearms.
Meanwhile, there’s no evidence the program will improve public safety.
In fact, Canadian firearms owners are exceptionally law-abiding and less likely to commit murder than other Canadians—and that shouldn’t be surprising. To own a firearm in Canada, you must obtain a Possession and Acquisition Licence (PAL) from the RCMP after initial vetting and daily monitoring for possible criminal activity. Between 2000 and 2020, an average of 12 PAL holders per year were accused of homicide, out of approximately 2 million PAL holders. The number of PAL holders increased from 1,979,054 to 2,206,755 over this same time period, so the PAL holder firearms homicide rate over 20 years was 0.63 per 100,000 PAL holders. But the firearms homicide rate for adult Canadians is 0.72 per 100,000—that’s 14 per cent higher than the rate for PAL holders.
Even the minister in charge of the program—Gary Anandasangaree, the Carney government’s public safety minister—seems to think it’s a bad idea. In an audio recording released online, he said: “I just don’t think municipal police services have the resources to do this” before adding that the program’s goals may be more about politics than sound policy.
So, with a federal budget looming, how much will the gun ban/confiscation program cost taxpayers?
The plain answer: we don’t know. But back in 2020, the Trudeau government said it would cost $200 million to compensate firearms owners for confiscating their now-banned firearms, although the Parliamentary Budget Officer said compensation costs could reach $756 million. The federal government recently said the program’s administrative costs (safe storage, destruction of hundreds of thousands of firearms, etc.) would reach an estimated $1.8 billion. My estimate, based on a similar program in New Zealand in 2019, for only compensation costs and the collection phase is closer to $6 billion.
Today, more than 150 employees of the Department of Public Safety in Ottawa are working full time on the program, yet few firearms (12,195) have been collected to-date. The program spent $67.2 million by 2024, before it collected a single gun, and is now projected to cost $459.8 million in 2025/26 alone, mainly on public opinion surveys and planning. Basically, they’re trying to figure out how to confiscate and destroy hundreds of thousands of guns from across Canada. Apparently, this planning costs hundreds of millions of dollars.
In sum, Ottawa’s gun ban/confiscation (“buyback”) program is very expensive and likely won’t achieve its stated goals of improving public safety. If the Carney government wants to find savings, the program is good place to start.
Business
Carney government should privatize airports—then open airline industry to competition
From the Fraser Institute
By Alex Whalen and Jake Fuss
This holiday season, many Canadians will fly to spend time to with family and friends. But air travellers in Canada consistently report frustration with service, cost and choice. In its recent budget, the Carney government announced it will consider “options for the privatization of airports.” What does this mean for Canadians?
Up until the 1990s, the federal government served as both the owner and operator of Canada’s major airports. The Chrétien government partially privatized and transferred the operation of major airports to not-for-profit airport authorities, while the federal government remained the owner of the land. Since then, the federal government has effectively been the landlord for Canada’s airports, collecting rent each year from the not-for-profit operating authorities.
What would full privatization of airports look like?
If the government allows private for-profit businesses to own Canada’s major airports, their incentives would be to operate as efficiently as possible, serve customers and generate profits. Currently, there’s little incentive to compete as the operating authorities are largely unaccountable because they only report to government officials in a limited form, rather than reporting directly to shareholders as they would under privatization. Private for-profit airports exist in many other countries, and research has shown they are often less costly for passengers and more innovative.
Yet, privatization of airports should be only the first step in a broader package of reforms to improve air travel in Canada. The federal government should also open up competition by creating the conditions for new airports, new airlines and new investment. Currently, Canada restricts foreign ownership of Canadian airlines, while also restricting foreign airlines from flying within Canada. Consequently, Canadians are left with little choice when booking air travel. Opening up the industry by reversing these policies would force incumbent airlines to compete with a greater number of airlines, generating greater choice and likely lower costs for consumers.
Moreover, the federal government should reduce the taxes and fees on air travel that contribute to the cost of airline tickets. Indeed, according to our recent research, among peer countries, Canada has among the most expensive air travel taxes and fees. These costs get passed on to consumers, so it’s no surprise that Canada consistently ranks as a very expensive country for air travel.
If the Carney government actually privatizes Canada’s airports, this would be a good first step to introducing greater competition in an industry where it’s badly needed. But to truly deliver for Canadians, the government must go much further and overhaul the numerous policies, taxes and fees that limit competition and drive up costs.
Business
Ottawa’s gun ‘buyback’ program will cost billions—and for no good reason
From the Fraser Institute
By Gary Mauser
The government told Cape Bretoners they had two weeks to surrender their firearms to qualify for reimbursement or “buyback.” The pilot project netted a grand total of 22 firearms.
Five years after then-prime minister Justin Trudeau banned more than 100,000 types of so-called “assault-style firearms,” the federal government recently made the first attempt to force Canadians to surrender these firearms.
It didn’t go well.
The police chief in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, volunteered to run a pilot “buyback” project, which began last month. The government told Cape Bretoners they had two weeks to surrender their firearms to qualify for reimbursement or “buyback.” The pilot project netted a grand total of 22 firearms.
This failure should surprise no one. Back in 2018, a survey of “stakeholders” warned the government that firearms owners wouldn’t support such a gun ban. According to Prime Minister Carney’s own Privy Council Office the “program faces a risk of non-compliance.” And federal Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree was recently recorded admitting that the “buyback” is a partisan maneuver, and if it were up to him, he’d scrap it. What’s surprising is Ottawa’s persistence, particularly given the change in the government and the opportunity to discard ineffective policies.
So what’s really going on here?
One thing is for certain—this program is not, and never has been, about public safety. According to a report from the federal Department of Justice, almost all guns used in crimes in Canada, including in big cities such as Toronto, are possessed illegally by criminals, with many smuggled in from the United States. And according to Ontario’s solicitor general, more than 90 per cent of guns used in crimes in the province are illegally imported from the U.S. Obviously, the “buyback” program will have no effect on these guns possessed illegally by criminals.
Moreover, Canadian firearms owners are exceptionally law-abiding and less likely to commit murder than other Canadians. That also should not be surprising. To own a firearm in Canada, you must obtain a Possession and Acquisition Licence (PAL) from the RCMP after initial vetting and daily monitoring for possible criminal activity. Between 2000 and 2020, an average of 12 PAL-holders per year were accused of homicide, out of approximately two million PAL-holders. During that same 10-year period, the PAL-holder firearms homicide rate was 0.63 (per 100,000 PAL-holders) compared to 0.72 (per 100,000 adult Canadians)—that’s 14 per cent higher than the rate for PAL-holders.
In other words, neither the so-called “assault-style firearms” nor their owners pose a threat to the public.
And the government’s own actions belie its claims. If these firearms are such a threat to Canadians, why slow-roll the “buyback” program? If inaction increased the likelihood of criminality by law-abiding firearms owners, why wait five years before launching a pilot program in a small community such as Cape Breton? And why continue to extend the amnesty period for another year, which the government did last month at the same time its pilot project netted a mere 22 firearms?
To ask those questions is to answer them.
Another question—how much will the “buyback” program cost taxpayers?
The government continues to block any attempt to disclose the full financial costs (although the Canadian Taxpayers Federation has launched a lawsuit to try to force the government to honour its Access to Information Act request). But back in 2020 the Trudeau government said it would cost $200 million to compensate firearms owners (although the Parliamentary Budget Officer said compensation costs could reach $756 million). By 2024, the program had spent $67.2 million—remember, that’s before it collected a single gun. The government recently said the program’s administrative costs (safe storage, destruction of hundreds of thousands of firearms, etc.) would reach an estimated $1.8 billion. And according to Carney’s first budget released in November, his government will spend $364 million on the program this fiscal year—at a time of massive federal deficits and debt.
This is reminiscent of the Chretien government’s gun registry fiasco, which wound up costing more than $2 billion even after then-justice minister Allan Rock promised the registry program would “almost break even” after an $85 million initial cost. The Harper government finally scrapped the registry in 2012.
As the Carney government clings to the policies of its predecessor, Canadians should understand the true nature of Ottawa’s gun “buyback” program and its costs.
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